Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

'Water view' from cyberspace : building resilient communities by identifying water risks

The perceived desirability of water views continues to lead to increasing numbers relocating to coastal regions. Proximity to coastal water brings with it unique risks from rising sea levels; however, water can present a risk in any area, whether or not you have water views. Recent Australian and international disasters show that even inland populations not located in traditional flood areas are not immune from water risks. The author examines the nature of these risks and shows how the internet can be used as a tool in identifying risk areas. The author also highlights the need to ensure accuracy of the data for valuation and planning purposes and identifies flaws in the current data provision.

Factor Five : Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity

The 21st century will see monumental change. Either the human race will use its knowledge and skills and change the way it interacts with the environment, or the environment will change the way it interacts with its inhabitants. In the first case, the focus of this book, we would see our sophisticated understanding in areas such as physics, chemistry, engineering, biology, planning, commerce, business and governance accumulated over the last 1,000 years brought to bear on the challenge of dramatically reducing our pressure on the environment. The second case however is the opposite scenario, involving the decline of the planet’s ecosystems until they reach thresholds where recovery is not possible, and following which we have no idea what happens. For instance, if we fail to respond to Sir Nicolas Stern’s call to meet appropriate stabilisation trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions, and we allow the average temperature of our planets surface to increase by 4-6 degrees Celsius, we will see staggering changes to our environment, including rapidly rising sea level, withering crops, diminishing water reserves, drought, cyclones, floods… allowing this to happen will be the failure of our species, and those that survive will have a deadly legacy. In this update to the 1997 International Best Seller, Factor Four, Ernst von Weizsäcker again leads a team to present a compelling case for sector wide advances that can deliver significant resource productivity improvements over the coming century. The purpose of this book is to inspire hope and to then inform meaningful action in the coming decades to respond to the greatest challenge our species has ever faced – that of living in harmony with our planet and its other inhabitants.

Perils to people and property : valuation practices in a water world

Recent international experiences have reinforced the peril to people and property from rising sea levels and associated water events. The related risks, while perhaps more obvious for properties located in coastal regions, can also impact upon inland properties. These risks are slowly influencing changes to planning practices and attitudes. This paper examines these risks from the perspective of land values and identifies the matters, and processes, that should be adopted in valuation practices.

Investigating early childhood education for sustainability : insights from history and literature

Seemingly straightforward tasks often have a way of becoming complex. This was the case for our guest editorial team charged with creating Early Childhood Australia’s Best of Sustainability publication drawn from the the Australasian Journal of Early Childhood and Every Child. The complexities we encountered ranged from the varied terminologies and understandings of constructs such as education for sustainable development, environmental education and education for sustainability, through to the fundamental lack of published research on which to draw as the basis for a special issue. It is timely to explore these complexities as we face the global challenges of The Critical Decade (DCCEE, 2011) including rising sea levels, extreme weather events and food security. At a local level, the early childhood field in Australia is seeking to interpret sustainability with systemic support from the National Quality Standards(NQS) (ACECQA, 2011), while elsewhere environmental/sustainability education is encouraged through national curricula documents (for example, Singapore Ministry of Education, 2008; Swedish National Agency for Education,2010; Ministry of Education of Korea, 2011). Both The Critical Decade and the NQS provide imperatives to drive early childhood education’s engagement with sustainability. In other words, sustainability in early childhood education is no longer optional, but essential (Elliott, 2010). While some twenty years of advocacy has led to this somewhat subdued celebratory position, in this publication we do recognise the historical contexts that have led to early childhood education for sustainability (ECEfS), as we (Elliott & Davis) phrase it, becoming almost ‘mainstream not marginal’ (Davis, 1999)— a stitching together of the isolated ‘patches of green’, first identified a decade ago by Elliott (NSW EPA, 2003). Here we weave together, through these articles, a story of the evolving history of ECEfS from our particular perspective. In so doing, we also acknowledge that there are other perspectives or ‘paths’ for this field as identified by Edwards and Cutter-McKenzie in their concluding paper to this compilation.

Environment, political economies and livelihood change

Between the national and household factors, community or “meso-level” changes in political economy and livelihoods in southwestern Bangladesh illustrate that in order to understand the impacts on people and nations of climate change-related environmental changes – changes that are expected to include rising sea level, saline inundation, and increased likelihood and intensity of cyclones in Bangladesh – we need to understand the dynamics of the built and natural environment and the political economies these sustain. Meso-level political economies affect the sources of income and livelihood available in distressed environmental conditions, and therefore influence how well the people in them can adapt to changing environmental conditions. In this study we have seen the underlying political economies whose dynamics, and not slow onset environmental changes or disastrous environmental events, are pushing Bangladeshis to incorporate migration strategies into their livelihood strategies.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): Exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Φ = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Millennial-scale paleoceanography in Okinawa Trough during Late Quaternary period

Based on the analyses of foraminifer and accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon dating in DGKS9603 core from mid-Okinawa Trough close to bottom, oscillation curve, which expressed the relation between the surface water temperature and the depth, has been obtained by using foraminifer analysis and calculation of FP-12E transfer function. The whole core indicated seven cold phases and eight warm phases. Obvious expression of low temperature event during Middle and Late Holocene, YD,H1,H2,H3 and H4 events, as well as the short cold phase during the middle last glacial period, implied that short shifts since 50 kaBP would have been global significance. Sedimentation rate during cold phases is usually faster than that in warm stages, with the lowest rate in Holocene, which may be connected with rising sea level and principal axial of Kuroshio Current moving to west. Volcanic activities highly developed in Okinawa Trough during the Quaternary period, thus abundant volcanic glass and pumice were well preserved.

黄东海及朝鲜海峡冰后期陆架沉积物的环境磁学研究

There are four chapters in this dissertation. The first chapter briefly synthesizes the basic theories, methods and present-day applying situation of environmental magnetism. The second chapter probes into the magnetic mineral diagenesis in the post-glacial muddy sediments from the southeastern South Yellow Sea and its response to marine environmental changes, using the muddy sediment of Core YSDP103 formed in the shelf since about 13 ka BP. The third chapter illustrates the high-resolution early diagenetic processes by investigating the rapidly deposited muddy sediments during the last 6 ka in Cores SSDP-102 and SSDP-103 from the near-shore shelf of Korea Strait. The fourth chapter presents the results of detailed rock magnetic investigation of the surface sediments from the fine-grained depositional area on the outer shelf of the East China Sea in an attempt to provide environmental magnetic evidence for the provenance of the fine-grained deposit. Core YSDP103 was retrieved in the muddy deposit under the cold eddy of the southeastern South Yellow Sea, and the uppermost 29.79 m core represents the muddy sediments formed in the shelf since about 13 ka BP. The lower part from 29.79 to 13.35 m, called Unit A2, was deposited during the period from the post-glacial transgression to the middle Holocene (at about 6 ~(14)C ka BP) when the rising sea level reached its maximum, while the upper part above 13.35 m (called Unit Al) was deposited in a cold eddy associated with the formation of the Yellow Sea Warm Current just after the peak of post-glacial sea level rise. For the the uppermost 29.79 m core, detailed investigation of rock-magnetic properties and analyses of grain sizes and geochemistry were made. The experimental results indicate that the magnetic mineralogy of the core is dominated by magnetite, maghemite and hematite and that, except for the uppermost 2.35 m, the magnetic minerals were subject to reductive diagenesis leading to significant decline of magnetic mineral content and the proportion of low-coercivity component. More importantly, ferrimagnetic iron sulphide (greigite) is found in Unit A2 but absent in Unit Al, suggesting the control of marine environmental conditions on the magnetic mineral diagenesis. Magnetic parameters show abrupt changes across the boundary between the Unit Al and A2, which reflects a co-effect of environmental conditions and primary magnetic components of the sediments on the diagenesis. Alternating zones of high and low magnetic parameters are observed in Unit A2 of Core YSDP103, which is presumably due to periodic changes of the concentration and/or grain size of magnetic minerals carried into the study area. Cores SSDP-102 and SSDP-103, two studied sediment cores from the Korea Strait contain mud sequences (14 m and 32.62 m in thickness) that were deposited during the last 6,000 years. Analyses of grain sizes and geochemistry of the cores have demonstrated that the sediments have uniform lithology and geochemical properties, however, marked down-core changes in magnetic properties suggest that diagenesis has significantly impacted the magnetic properties. An expanded view of early diagenetic reactions that affect magnetic mineral assemblages is evident in these rapidly deposited continental shelf sediments compared to deep-sea sediments. The studied sediments can be divided into four descending intervals, based on magnetic property variations. Interval 1 is least affected by diagenesis and has the highest concentrations of detrital magnetite and hematite, and the lowest solid-phase sulfur contents. Interval 2 is characterized by the presence of paramagnetic pyrite and sharply decreasing magnetite and hematite concentrations, which suggest active reductive dissolution of detrital magnetic minerals, the absolute minimum abundance of magnetite is reached at the end of this interval. Interval 3 is marked by a progressive loss of hematite with depth, and at the base of this interval, 82% to 88% of the hematite component was depleted and the bulk magnetic mineral concentration was reduced to the lowest value in the entire studied mud section. Interval 4 has an increasing down-core enhancement of authigenic greigite, which is interpreted to have formed due to arrested pyritization resulting from consumption of pore water sulfate with depth. This is the first clear demonstration from an active depositional environment for a delay of thousands of years for acquisition of a magnetization carried by greigite. This detailed view of diagenetic processes in continental shelf sediments suggests that studies of geomagnetic field behavior from such sediments should be conducted with care. Paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic studies based on the magnetic properties of shelf sediments with high sedimentation rates like those in the Korea Strait are also unlikely to provide a meaningful signature associated with syn-depositional environmental processes. The rock magnetic properties of the surface sediments from the fine-grained depositional area on the outer shelf of the East China Sea, an area surrounded by sands, are investigated with a view to providing information on the sediment provenance. Multiple magnetic parameters such as magnetic susceptibility (%), anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM), saturation rernanent magnetization (SIRM), coercivities of SIRM (Her), and S ratios (relative abundance of low-coercivity magnetic minerals) are measured for all 179 surface samples, and partial representative samples are examined for their magnetic hysteresis parameters, temperature-dependence of magnetic susceptibility and x-ray diffraction spectra. Our research indicates that the magnetic mineralogy is dominated by magnetite with a small amount of hematite and is primarily of pseudo-single domain (PSD) to multidomain (MD) nature with a detrital origin. In the surface sediments, the granulometry of magnetic fractions is basically independent of grain sizes of the sediment containing the magnetic grains, and the composition of magnetic minerals remains almost homogeneous, that is, with a relatively constant ratio of low to high coercivity fraction throughout the area. The magnetic concentration in the study area generally decreases to the east or southeast accompanied by magnetic-particle fining to the east or to the northeast. The geographic pattern of magnetic properties is most reasonably explained by a major source of sediment jointly from the erosion of the old Huanghe River deposit and the discharge of the Changjiang River. The rock magnetic data facilitate understanding of the transport mechanism of fine-grained sediments in the outer shelf of the East China Sea.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Unique mitochondrial DNA lineages in Irish stickleback populations: cryptic refugium or rapid recolonization?

Repeated recolonization of freshwater environments following Pleistocene glaciations has played a major role in the evolution and adaptation of anadromous taxa. Located at the western fringe of Europe, Ireland and Britain were likely recolonized rapidly by anadromous fishes from the North Atlantic following the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the presence of unique mitochondrial haplotypes in Ireland suggests that a cryptic northern refugium may have played a role in recolonization, no explicit test of this hypothesis has been conducted. The three-spined stickleback is native and ubiquitous to aquatic ecosystems throughout Ireland, making it an excellent model species with which to examine the biogeographical history of anadromous fishes in the region. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to examine the presence of divergent evolutionary lineages and to assess broad-scale patterns of geographical clustering among postglacially isolated populations. Our results confirm that Ireland is a region of secondary contact for divergent mitochondrial lineages and that endemic haplotypes occur in populations in Central and Southern Ireland. To test whether a putative Irish lineage arose from a cryptic Irish refugium, we used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, we found no support for this hypothesis. Instead, the Irish lineage likely diverged from the European lineage as a result of postglacial isolation of freshwater populations by rising sea levels. These findings emphasize the need to rigorously test biogeographical hypothesis and contribute further evidence that postglacial processes may have shaped genetic diversity in temperate fauna.

Adaptable housing design for climate change adaptation

It is predicted that climate change will result in rising sea levels, more frequent and extreme weather events, hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. This will have a significant impact on the design of buildings, how they are kept cool and how they are weathered against more extreme climatic conditions. The residential sector is already a significant environmental burden with high associated operational energy. Climate change, and a growing population requiring residence, has the potential to exacerbate this problem seriously. New paradigms for residential building design are required to enable low-carbon dioxide operation to mitigate climate change. They must also face the reality of inevitable climate change and adopt climate change adaptation strategies to cope with future scenarios. However, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of adapting occupant needs, influenced by ageing populations and new technologies. This paper presents concepts and priorities for changing how society designs residential buildings by designing for adaptation. A case study home is analysed in the context of its stated aims of low energy and adaptability. A post-occupancy evaluation of the house is presented, and future-proofing strategies are evaluated using climate projection data for future climate change scenarios.

Análise da vulnerabilidade de Natal/RN frente às mudanças climáticas

The interaction between land and water, resulting from dynamic agents, such as wind, waves and tides, characterizes the coastal zone as a dynamic environment that is constantly disturbed and that may alter the balance of natural and man-made environment. Such modifications may be intensified when considering the climate change. This environment is highly attractive for the development of economic activities and urbanization, current scenario of the city of Natal. Weighing the economic importance for the state and the physical environment in which the capital of Rio Grande do Norte is inserted, this study aims to identify and analyze vulnerabilities and impacts caused by the rising sea level in the municipality. To that end, we defined a coastline, delimited areas susceptible to flooding and presented some flood scenarios. This way we could identify and analyze the impacts of each flood scenario in its respective section. Finally, it appears that the coastal zone in which Natal is inserted is a fragile area that requires actions aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and facing the problem that caused the rise in the mean sea level (MSL), and mitigating the presented vulnerability framework; it is necessary to implement actions that effectively contribute to the protection and adaptation of the most fragile areas

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2009

Includes bibliography

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010

Spanish version available at the Library