Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Some features of the turbulence produced by rising air bubbles in water

Presented in this paper is an experimental study on the characteristics of the turbulence produced by rising air bubbles in water. The measurements of turbulent velocities were made by using visualization technique of particle streak and computer image processing of the flow field. The turbulence features have been examined, showing that the rising bubble-produced turbulence can be approximately modeled by homogeneous turbulence as in the case of grid turbulence in air.

Numerical simulation of a single fluid particle rising in non-Newtonian fluids

In this work, a level set method is developed for simulating the motion of a fluid particle rising in non-Newtonian fluids described by generalized Newtonian as well as viscoelastic model fluids. As the shear-thinning model we use a Carreau-Yasuda model, and the viscoelastic effect can be modeled with Oldroyd-B constitutive equations. The control volume formulation with the SIMPLEC algorithm incorporated is used to solve the governing equations on a staggered Eulerian grid. The level set method is implemented to compute the motion of a bubble in a Newtonian fluid as one of typical examples for validation, and the computational results are in good agreement with the reported experimental data．The level set method is also applied for simulating a Newtonian drop rising in Carreau-Yasuda and Oldroyd-B fluids．Numerical results including noticeably negative wake behind the drop and viscosity field are obtained, and compare satisfactorily with the known literature data.

If the tide is rising, who pays for the ark?

Two common goals of this meeting are to arrest the effects of sea level rise and other phenomena caused by Greenhouse Gases from anthropogenic sources ("GHG",) and to mitigate the effects. The fundamental questions are: (1) how to get there and (2) who should shoulder the cost? Given Washington gridlock, states, NGO's and citizens such as the Inupiat of the Village of Kivalina have turned to the courts for solutions. Current actions for public nuisance seek (1) to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions, (2) damages for health effects and property damage—plus hundreds of millions in dollars spent to prepare for the foregoing. The U.S. Court of Appeals just upheld the action against the generators of some 10% of the CO2 emissions from human activities in the U.S., clearing the way for a trial featuring the state of the art scientific linkage between GHG production and the effects of global warming. Climate change impacts on coastal regions manifest most prominently through sea level rise and its impacts: beach erosion, loss of private and public structures, relocation costs, loss of use and accompanying revenues (e.g. tourism), beach replenishment and armoring costs, impacts of flooding during high water events, and loss of tax base. Other effects may include enhanced storm frequency and intensity, increased insurance risks and costs, impacts to water supplies, fires and biological changes through invasions or local extinctions (IPCC AR4, 2007; Okmyung, et al., 2007). There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. y su obra: Una fusión sistemático-existencial

607 p.

Fish for the poor under a rising global demand and changing fishery regime

In the past, agricultural researchers tended to ignore the fisheries factor in global food and nutritional security. However, the role of fish is becoming critical as a result of changes in fisheries regimes, income distribution, demand and increasing international trade. Fish has become the fastest growing food commodity in international trade and this is raising concern for the supply of fish for poorer people. As a result, the impact of international trade regimes on fish supply and demand, and the consequences on the availability of fish for developing countries need to be studied. Policies aimed at increasing export earnings are in conflict with those aimed at increasing food security in third world countries. Fisheries policy research will need to focus on three primary areas which have an impact on the marginal and poorer communities of developing countries: increased international demand for low-value fish on the supply of poorer countries; improved aquaculture technologies and productivity on poorer and marginal farmers; and land and water allocation policy on productivity, food security and sustainability across farm, fishery and related sectors. The key to local food security is in the integration of agriculture, aquaculture and natural resources but an important focus on fisheries policy research will be to look at the linkages between societal, economic and natural systems in order to develop adequate and flexible solutions to achieve sustainable use of aquatic resources systems.

Investigation of rising nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eden Valley, Cumbria: Phase 1 project scoping study

This is the Investigation of rising nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eden Valley, Cumbria report produced by the Environment Agency in 2003. This report focuses on groundwater nitrate concentrations in the Eden Valley. Most boreholes in the Eden Valley had nitrate concentrations less than 20 mg/l but a significant number had higher concentrations, some exceeding the EC maximum admissible concentration for drinking water of 50 mg/l. The main objectives of this report were to investigate the causes of rising nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Permo-Triassic sandstone aquifers of the Eden Valley area and provide sufficient understanding of the groundwater and surface water flow system, including the sources of the nitrate contamination and the processes controlling nitrate movement, so that possible management options for reversing this trend can be considered.

Investigation of responsivity decreasing with rising bias voltage in a GaN Schottky barrier photodetector

The unexpected decrease in measured responsivity observed in a specific GaN Schottky barrier photodetector (PD) at high reverse bias voltage was investigated and explained. Device equivalent transforms and small signal analysis were performed to analyse the test circuit. On this basis, a model was built which explained the responsivity decrease quantitatively. After being revised by this model, responsivity curves varying with bias voltage turned out to be reasonable. It is proved that the decrease is related to the dynamic parallel resistance of the photodiode. The results indicate that with a GaN Schottky PD, the choice of load resistance is restricted according to the dynamic parallel resistance of the device to avoid responsivity decay at high bias voltage.

Numerical simulation of a bubble rising in shear-thinning fluids

The motion of a single bubble rising freely in quiescent non-Newtonian viscous fluids was investigated experimentally and computationally. The non-Newtonian effects in the flow of viscous inelastic fluids are modeled by the Carreau theological model. An improved level set approach for computing the incompressible two-phase flow with deformable free interface is used. The control volume formulation with the SIMPLEC algorithm incorporated is used to solve the governing equations on a staggered Eulerian grid. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm is robust for shear-thinning liquids with large density (rho(1)/rho(g) up to 10(3)) and high viscosity (eta(1)/eta(g) up to 10(4)). The comparison of the experimental measurements of terminal bubble shape and velocity with the computational results is satisfactory. It is shown that the local change in viscosity around a bubble greatly depends on the bubble shape and the zero-shear viscosity of non-Newtonian shear-thinning liquids. The shear-rate distribution and velocity fields are used to elucidate the formation of a region of large viscosity at the rear of a bubble as a result of the rather stagnant flow behind the bubble. The numerical results provide the basis for further investigations, such as the numerical simulation of viscoelastic fluids. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the microstructure of biaxially oriented polypropylene using preparative temperature-rising elution fractionation

Two commercial biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) resins, resin A and resin B, having different processing properties, were fractionated by preparative temperature-rising elution fractionation (TREF). The TREF fractions were further characterized by gel permeation chromatography (GPC), gel permeation chromatography coupled with light scattering (GPC-LS), wide-angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). GPC-LS did not find visible long-chain branching in either resin A or B. The results from TREF and DSC indicate that the fractional melting parameter f(T) may be used to predict the profile of the TREF cumulative weight distribution curve. GPC results show that the molecular weights of the fractions tend to increase with elution temperature. WAXD and DSC data show that the crystallinity of fractions does not increase monotonically with increase of elution temperature. There appears to be a maximum in the plot of crystallinity versus elution temperature. The high-speed BOPP resin A has a lower isotacticity but a homogeneous isotacticity distribution and a higher molecular weight but a broader molecular weight distribution than resin B.

The day-breaking, if not the sun-rising of the Gospell with the Indians in New-England.

University of California Libraries

Global value Chains, rising power firms and economic and social upgrading

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the global value chain (GVC) approach to understand the relationship between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the changing patterns of global trade, investment and production, and its impact on economic and social upgrading. It aims to illuminate how GVCs can advance our understanding about MNEs and rising power (RP) firms and their impact on economic and social upgrading in fragmented and dispersed global production systems. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews theGVCliterature focusing on two conceptual elements of the GVC approach, governance and upgrading, and highlights three key recent developments in GVCs: concentration, regionalization and synergistic governance. Findings – The paper underscores the complicated role of GVCs in shaping economic and social upgrading for emerging economies, RP firms and developing country firms in general. Rising geographic and organizational concentration in GVCs leads to the uneven distribution of upgrading opportunities in favor of RP firms, and yet economic upgrading may be elusive even for the most established suppliers because of power asymmetry with global buyers. Shifting end markets and the regionalization of value chains can benefit RP firms by presenting alternative markets for upgrading. Yet, without further upgrading, such benefits may be achieved at the expense of social downgrading. Finally, the ineffectiveness of private standards to achieve social upgrading has led to calls for synergistic governance through the cooperation of private, public and social actors, both global and local. Originality/value – The paper illuminates how the GVC approach and its key concepts can contribute to the critical international business and RP firms literature by examining the latest dynamics in GVCs and their impacts on economic and social development in developing countries.