Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals, March 2000

This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers’ Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas; and a corn farm in Webster County, Iowa. We consider additional factors that may shed light on the differential impacts of the two plans. 1. Farm-level income impacts under alternative weather scenarios. 2. Additional indirect impacts, such as a change in ability to obtain financing. 3. Implications of within-year price shocks. Our results indicate that farmers who buy crop insurance will increase their coverage levels under S. 1580. Farmers with high yield risk find that the 65 percent coverage level maximizes expected returns, but some who feel that they obtain other benefits from higher coverage will find that the S. 1580 subsidy schedule significantly lowers the cost of obtaining the additional coverage. Farmers with lower yield risk find that the increased indemnities from additional coverage will more than offset the increase in producer premium. In addition, because S. 1580 extends its increased premium subsidy percentages to revenue insurance products, farmers will have an increased incentive to buy revenue insurance. Differences in the ancillary benefits from crop insurance under the baseline and S. 1580 would be driven by the increase in insurance participation and buy-up. Given the same levels of insurance participation and buy-up, the ancillary benefits under the two scenarios would be the same.

CAP Reform vs WTO: Crop Diversification or Crop Rotation? : Legal opinion prepared by Dr. Christian Häberli at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe

The European Commission’s proposals for the Legislative Framework of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the period 2014-2020 include, inter alia, the introduction of a “strong greening component”. For the first time, all EU farmers in receipt of support are to “go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities crop diversification as a contribution to all EU farmers in receipt of support go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities.” In a legal opinion prepared at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe (www.aprodev.eu), Christian Häberli examines the WTO implications of this proposal, as compared with an alternative proposal to rather link direct payments to crop rotation. The conclusions are twofold: 1. Crop rotation is at least as likely to be found Green Box-compatible as crop diversification. Moreover, it will be more difficult to argue that crop diversification is “not more than minimally production-distorting” because it entails for most farmers less cost and work. 2. Even if (either of the two cropping schemes) were to be found “amber”, the EU would not have to relinquish this conditionality. This is because the direct payments involved would in all likelihood not, together with the other price support instruments, exceed the amount available under the presently scheduled maximum.

Draft priorities manual : proposals for integration of the priorities & allocation system.

"30 April 1948."

Request for proposal : Emergency Shelter Grants Program.

Congress will again appropriate funds under the Stewart B. McKinney Act for the Emergency Shelter Grants Program (ESG). This program is funded through the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Funds are provided to expand and improve the number and quality of emergency shelters for the homeless, and for homeless prevention activities. The Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) is distributing this Request For Proposal, subject to change, based upon comments that may be received during the public hearing process for the Consolidated Plan. Funds are being made available to local governments and/or not-for-profit organizations providing shelter and/or services within the State of Illinois, but outside of Cook County and the City of Chicago. The department is requesting proposals from local governments on behalf of private not-for-profit, tax-exempt organizations or directly from private not-for-profit, organizations serving the homeless. Grants from $10,000 to $75,000 are available to cover expenses incurred between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2010.

Evaluating design proposals for complex systems with work domain analysis

In this paper we propose a new framework for evaluating designs based on work domain analysis, the first phase of cognitive work analysis. We develop a rationale for a new approach to evaluation by describing the unique characteristics of complex systems and by showing that systems engineering techniques only partially accommodate these characteristics. We then present work domain analysis as a complementary framework for evaluation. We explain this technique by example by showing how the Australian Defence Force used work domain analysis to evaluate design proposals for a new system called Airborne Early Warning and Control. This case study also demonstrates that work domain analysis is a useful and feasible approach that complements standard techniques for evaluation and that promotes a central role for human factors professionals early in the system design and development process. Actual or potential applications of this research include the evaluation of designs for complex systems.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

The effects of information request ambiguity and construct incongruence on query development

This paper examines the effects of information request ambiguity and construct incongruence on end user's ability to develop SQL queries with an interactive relational database query language. In this experiment, ambiguity in information requests adversely affected accuracy and efficiency. Incongruities among the information request, the query syntax, and the data representation adversely affected accuracy, efficiency, and confidence. The results for ambiguity suggest that organizations might elicit better query development if end users were sensitized to the nature of ambiguities that could arise in their business contexts. End users could translate natural language queries into pseudo-SQL that could be examined for precision before the queries were developed. The results for incongruence suggest that better query development might ensue if semantic distances could be reduced by giving users data representations and database views that maximize construct congruence for the kinds of queries in typical domains. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.