Calando-se para se preservar de um contexto ameaçador, mediante a fragilidade de se resgatar o aluno da rede pública de ensino, em interações com substâncias psicoativas: a experiência do professor

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Sampling-Design Effects on Properties of Species-Area Relationships - A Case Study from Estonian Dry Grassland Communities

Despite widespread use of species-area relationships (SARs), dispute remains over the most representative SAR model. Using data of small-scale SARs of Estonian dry grassland communities, we address three questions: (1) Which model describes these SARs best when known artifacts are excluded? (2) How do deviating sampling procedures (marginal instead of central position of the smaller plots in relation to the largest plot; single values instead of average values; randomly located subplots instead of nested subplots) influence the properties of the SARs? (3) Are those effects likely to bias the selection of the best model? Our general dataset consisted of 16 series of nested-plots (1 cm(2)-100 m(2), any-part system), each of which comprised five series of subplots located in the four corners and the centre of the 100-m(2) plot. Data for the three pairs of compared sampling designs were generated from this dataset by subsampling. Five function types (power, quadratic power, logarithmic, Michaelis-Menten, Lomolino) were fitted with non-linear regression. In some of the communities, we found extremely high species densities (including bryophytes and lichens), namely up to eight species in 1 cm(2) and up to 140 species in 100 m(2), which appear to be the highest documented values on these scales. For SARs constructed from nested-plot average-value data, the regular power function generally was the best model, closely followed by the quadratic power function, while the logarithmic and Michaelis-Menten functions performed poorly throughout. However, the relative fit of the latter two models increased significantly relative to the respective best model when the single-value or random-sampling method was applied, however, the power function normally remained far superior. These results confirm the hypothesis that both single-value and random-sampling approaches cause artifacts by increasing stochasticity in the data, which can lead to the selection of inappropriate models.

Jobs, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Transmission

Measuring Job Openings: Evidence from Swedish Plant Level Data. In modern macroeconomic models “job openings'' are a key component. Thus, when taking these models to the data we need an empirical counterpart to the theoretical concept of job openings. To achieve this, the literature relies on job vacancies measured either in survey or register data. Insofar as this concept captures the concept of job openings well we should see a tight relationship between vacancies and subsequent hires on the micro level. To investigate this, I analyze a new data set of Swedish hires and job vacancies on the plant level covering the period 2001-2012. I find that vacancies contain little power in predicting hires over and above (i) whether the number of vacancies is positive and (ii) plant size. Building on this, I propose an alternative measure of job openings in the economy. This measure (i) better predicts hiring at the plant level and (ii) provides a better fitting aggregate matching function vis-à-vis the traditional vacancy measure. Firm Level Evidence from Two Vacancy Measures. Using firm level survey and register data for both Sweden and Denmark we show systematic mis-measurement in both vacancy measures. While the register-based measure on the aggregate constitutes a quarter of the survey-based measure, the latter is not a super-set of the former. To obtain the full set of unique vacancies in these two databases, the number of survey vacancies should be multiplied by approximately 1.2. Importantly, this adjustment factor varies over time and across firm characteristics. Our findings have implications for both the search-matching literature and policy analysis based on vacancy measures: observed changes in vacancies can be an outcome of changes in mis-measurement, and are not necessarily changes in the actual number of vacancies. Swedish Unemployment Dynamics. We study the contribution of different labor market flows to business cycle variations in unemployment in the context of a dual labor market. To this end, we develop a decomposition method that allows for a distinction between permanent and temporary employment. We also allow for slow convergence to steady state which is characteristic of European labor markets. We apply the method to a new Swedish data set covering the period 1987-2012 and show that the relative contributions of inflows and outflows to/from unemployment are roughly 60/30. The remaining 10\% are due to flows not involving unemployment. Even though temporary contracts only cover 9-11\% of the working age population, variations in flows involving temporary contracts account for 44\% of the variation in unemployment. We also show that the importance of flows involving temporary contracts is likely to be understated if one does not account for non-steady state dynamics. The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogeneous-Agent Perspective. We argue that a 2-agent version of the standard New Keynesian model---where a ``worker'' receives only labor income and a “capitalist'' only profit income---offers insights about how income inequality affects the monetary transmission mechanism. Under rigid prices, monetary policy affects the distribution of consumption, but it has no effect on output as workers choose not to change their hours worked in response to wage movements. In the corresponding representative-agent model, in contrast, hours do rise after a monetary policy loosening due to a wealth effect on labor supply: profits fall, thus reducing the representative worker's income. If wages are rigid too, however, the monetary transmission mechanism is active and resembles that in the corresponding representative-agent model. Here, workers are not on their labor supply curve and hence respond passively to demand, and profits are procyclical.

Nemlineáris dinamika klasszikus növekedési modellekben (Nonlinear dynamics in classical economic growth models)

Ebben a tanulmányban a klasszikus Harrod növekedési modellt nemlineáris kiterjesztéssel, keynesi és schumpeteri tradíciók bevezetésével reprezentatív ügynök modellbe alakítjuk. A híres Lucas kritika igazolásaként megmutatjuk, hogy az intrinsic gazdasági növekedési ütemek trajektóriái vagy egy turbulens káoszba szóródnak szét, vagy egy nagyméretű rendhez vezetnek, ami elsődlegesen a megfelelő fogyasztási függvény típusától függ, s bizonyos paraméterek piaci értékei, pedig csak másodlagos szerepet játszanak. A másik meglepő eredmény empirikus, ami szerint külkereskedelmi többlet, a hazai valuta bizonyos devizapiaci értékei mellett, különös attraktorokat generálhat. _____ In this paper the classical Harrodian growth model is transformed into a representative agent model by its nonlinear extensions and the Keynesian and Schumpeterian traditions. For the proof of the celebrated Lucas critique it is shown that the trajectories of intrinsic economic growth rates either are scattered into a turbulent chaos or lead to a large scale order. It depends on the type of the appropriate consumption function, and the market values of some parameters are playing only secondary role.Another surprising result is empirical: the international trade su±cit may generate strange attractors under some exchange rate values.

Investigating attitudes towards three South American destinations in an emerging long haul market using a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE)

Despite the importance of destination image in market competitiveness, and the popularity of the field within tourism literature, there remains a dearth of published research examining travellers’ perceptions of destinations in South America. This manuscript addresses this gap by testing a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) associated with three South American countries; Chile, Brazil and Argentina. The introduction of direct air links and a free trade agreement in 2008 has led destination marketing organisations (DMOs) in these countries to increase promotional efforts in the Australian market. This study shows that the CBBE model is an appropriate tool to explore consumers’ attitudes in the long haul travel context. The findings provide DMOs of the three countries studied, with benchmarks against which to compare the impact of future marketing communications in Australia. The results provide increased transparency and accountability to stakeholders, such as South American tourism businesses and Australian travel intermediaries.

Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways

Climate projections for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are made using the newly developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5). This article provides multi-model and multi-scenario temperature and precipitation projections for India for the period 1860-2099 based on the new climate data. We find that CMIP5 ensemble mean climate is closer to observed climate than any individual model. The key findings of this study are: (i) under the business-as-usual (between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) scenario, mean warming in India is likely to be in the range 1.7-2 degrees C by 2030s and 3.3-4.8 degrees C by 2080s relative to pre-industrial times; (ii) all-India precipitation under the business-as-usual scenario is projected to increase from 4% to 5% by 2030s and from 6% to 14% towards the end of the century (2080s) compared to the 1961-1990 baseline; (iii) while precipitation projections are generally less reliable than temperature projections, model agreement in precipitation projections increases from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5, and from short-to long-term projections, indicating that long-term precipitation projections are generally more robust than their short-term counterparts and (iv) there is a consistent positive trend in frequency of extreme precipitation days (e.g. > 40 mm/day) for decades 2060s and beyond. These new climate projections should be used in future assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation planning. There is need to consider not just the mean climate projections, but also the more important extreme projections in impact studies and as well in adaptation planning.

Model Development and Validation for Studying Consumer Preferences of Car Owners

Globalization and liberalization, with the entry of many prominent foreign manufacturers, changed the automobile scenario in India, since early 1990‟s. Manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, Renault, Mitsubishi, Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and Nissan set up their manufacturing units in India in joint venture with their Indian counterpart companies, by making use of the Foreign Direct Investment policy of the Government of India, These manufacturers started capturing the hearts of Indian car customers with their choice of technological and innovative product features, with quality and reliability. With the multiplicity of choices available to the Indian passenger car buyers, it drastically changed the way the car purchase scenario in India and particularly in the State of Kerala. This transformed the automobile scene from a sellers‟ market to buyers‟ market. Car customers started developing their own personal preferences and purchasing patterns, which were hitherto unknown in the Indian automobile segment. The main purpose of this paper is to come up with the identification of possible parameters and a framework development, that influence the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, so that further research could be done, based on the framework and the identified parameters

Conceptualisation Of Model For Studying Consumer Purchase Behaviour Of Passenger Cars

Automobile Industry in India is influenced by the presence of national and multi-national manufacturers. The presence of many manufacturers and brands in the state provides many choices to the customer. The current market for car manufacturers has been transformed from a monopoly of one or two manufacturers in the seventies to oligopoly of many manufacturers in the current marketing scenario. The main objective of the research paper is to explore and conceptualize various parameters and develop a model, which influence the purchase patterns of passenger cars in the State of Kerala. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to come up with a model, which shall facilitate further study on the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, India. The author intends to undertake further quantitative analysis to verify and validate the model so developed. The main methods used for this paper are secondary research on available material, depth interview of car dealers, car financing agencies and car owners in the city of Cochin, in Kerala State in India. The depth interviews were conducted with the use of prepared questionnaire for car dealers, car customers and car financing agencies. The findings resulted in the identification of the parameters that influence the consumer purchase behaviour of passenger cars and the formulation of the model, which will be the basis for the further research of the author. The paper will be of tremendous value to the existing and new car manufacturers both indigenous and foreign, to formalize and strategies their policies towards an effective marketing strategy, so as to market their models in the State, which is known for its high literacy, consumerism and higher educational penetration

Domestically produced food: Consumer perceptions of origin, safety and the issue of trust

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional methods such as smell, taste or other physical attributes of food. The existence of extrinsic cues such as the country of origin (COO) of food can help to make food purchase decisions easier for consumers. However, the use of extrinsic cues depends heavily on the extent to which consumers trust such signals to be indicative of quality or safety, which in turn depends on the credibility behind that cue. This paper aims to examine consumers association of domestically produced food with increased food safety standards and the association of COO and food safety information with socio-demographics and other aspects of consumer psychology such as attitudes, risk perception and trust. Using an ordered probit model, domestic production is examined as an extrinsic cue for food safety by looking at the relationship with trust in food safety information provided by national food standards agencies (NFSAs) and other socio-demographic characteristics, based on nationally representative data from 2725 face-to-face interviews across five European countries. Results suggest that domestic production of food is an extrinsic cue for food safety and as consumers place increasing importance on food safety they are more interested in food produced in their own country. This, coupled with consumer trust in a strong, and independent national food standards agency, suggests the potential exists for the increased consumption of domestically produced foods.

The significance of occupancy steadiness in residential consumer response to Time of Use pricing: Evidence from a stochastic adjustment model

The recent roll-out of smart metering technologies in several developed countries has intensified research on the impacts of Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing on consumption. This paper analyses a TOU dataset from the Province of Trento in Northern Italy using a stochastic adjustment model. Findings highlight the non-steadiness of the relationship between consumption and TOU price. Weather and active occupancy can partly explain future consumption in relation to price.

Closed-loop feedback computation model of dynamical reputation based on the local trust evaluation in business-to-consumer e-commerce

Trust and reputation are important factors that influence the success of both traditional transactions in physical social networks and modern e-commerce in virtual Internet environments. It is difficult to define the concept of trust and quantify it because trust has both subjective and objective characteristics at the same time. A well-reported issue with reputation management system in business-to-consumer (BtoC) e-commerce is the “all good reputation” problem. In order to deal with the confusion, a new computational model of reputation is proposed in this paper. The ratings of each customer are set as basic trust score events. In addition, the time series of massive ratings are aggregated to formulate the sellers’ local temporal trust scores by Beta distribution. A logical model of trust and reputation is established based on the analysis of the dynamical relationship between trust and reputation. As for single goods with repeat transactions, an iterative mathematical model of trust and reputation is established with a closed-loop feedback mechanism. Numerical experiments on repeated transactions recorded over a period of 24 months are performed. The experimental results show that the proposed method plays guiding roles for both theoretical research into trust and reputation and the practical design of reputation systems in BtoC e-commerce.

Consumer complaint actions: a conceptual model based on complainants about advertising in Australia

This article presents a new conceptual model detailing consumer complaint responses relating to exposure to unacceptable advertising. The model is initiated by consumer perceptions of negative inequity which elicits one of three consumer complaint responses based on the identified triggers that may influence complaining propensity such as demographic, psychographic, cultural, situational and social factors. Complainant perception of the process encountered together with the overall outcome of their experience affect future complaint behaviour as shown by this evolving model as the end reaction flows on to form the consumer’s next response to a similar situation. The advertising industry in Australia is valued annually at over $8 billion and some advertisements have been identified as ‘unacceptable’ by elements in society. Industry and regulatory response to consumer complaints is thus an important area to address and there is no extant literature utilising such an holistic model.

Consumer complaint behaviour in sport consumption: a theoretical model

In this study, traditional consumer complaint behaviours (CCBs) are re-examined in an experiential context; specifically, the consumption of live sport. It is proposed that these behaviours are not motivated by the “traditional” antecedents, and further, that they are not enacted with the purpose of reducing dissonance. Instead, it would appear that traditional CCBs, such as private responses, direct voicing and third party action take on a more functional role in the sport consumption experience. The possibility exists that for some spectators, these CCBs, which have been traditionally classified as negative, actually contribute to overall enjoyment of, and satisfaction with, a sport consumption experience. A review of literature in the area is presented, and a theoretical model of CCB in the experiential context is offered.

Testing the circumplex model of emotions in a consumer setting

There is widespread belief that more positive emotional reactions to consumption situations will lead to positive business outcomes such as increased market share through the combination of increased loyalty, repeat purchase and strengthened reputation. However, most of the psychological work on emotions has not dealt directly with consumption experiences, but rather broader everyday experiences. In this study, psychological models of emotion were tested using magazine subscribers, specifically looking at their emotional responses to the magazine and the overall subscription package. The aim was to determine whether one of the major theories on emotional structure, the circumplex model, is relevant and consistent when applied specifically to a consumption experience. The results are positive, with the model being supported, and they provide insight into the structure and relations of different emotional responses (e.g., satisfaction, delight) consumers might have to a consumption experience.

Brand salience and purchasing for consumer banking services : an empirically-based model

The research reported in this paper proposed and tested a model of brand salience for banking services, which incorporates knowledge and brand image as antecedents. A full model of brand salience has not been tested previously, nor has a model of brand salience for services been tested. A quasi-experimental method was utilised. Respondents undertook a free recall exercise using category cues, and then completed multi-item measures of brand knowledge, brand associations, and purchase likelihood. Past purchase was tested via a recall exercise. A usable sample of 270 respondents was gained, and the data were analysed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Analysis of the data found support for a model of brand salience for the banking services category, and found a relationship between brand salience and most recent brand purchased. This paper contributes to the field of branding by proposing and testing a model of brand salience. The research reported in this paper may suggest that advertisers need to design their communications to increase accessibility of brands in the memory of consumers, and that the last brand purchased by consumers will have an effect on their next purchase decision, especially in the consumer banking category.