A practical approach for reliability prediction of pipeline systems

Pipelines play an important role in the modern society. Failures of pipelines can have great impacts on economy, environment and community. Preventive maintenance (PM) is often conducted to improve the reliability of pipelines. Modern asset management practice requires accurate predictability of the reliability of pipelines with multiple PM actions, especially when these PM actions involve imperfect repairs. To address this issue, a split system approach (SSA) based model is developed in this paper through an industrial case study. This new model enables maintenance personnel to predict the reliability of pipelines with different PM strategies and hence effectively assists them in making optimal PM decisions.

Assessment of lifetime cumulative sun exposure using a self-administered questionnaire : reliability of two approaches

Few studies have evaluated the reliability of lifetime sun exposure estimated from inquiring about the number of hours people spent outdoors in a given period on a typical weekday or weekend day (the time-based approach). Some investigations have suggested that women have a particularly difficult task in estimating time outdoors in adulthood due to their family and occupational roles. We hypothesized that people might gain additional memory cues and estimate lifetime hours spent outdoors more reliably if asked about time spent outdoors according to specific activities (an activity-based approach). Using self-administered, mailed questionnaires, test-retest responses to time-based and to activity-based approaches were evaluated in 124 volunteer radiologic technologist participants from the United States: 64 females and 60 males 48 to 80 years of age. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to evaluate the test-retest reliability of average number of hours spent outdoors in the summer estimated for each approach. We tested the differences between the two ICCs, corresponding to each approach, using a t test with the variance of the difference estimated by the jackknife method. During childhood and adolescence, the two approaches gave similar ICCs for average numbers of hours spent outdoors in the summer. By contrast, compared with the time-based approach, the activity-based approach showed significantly higher ICCs during adult ages (0.69 versus 0.43, P = 0.003) and over the lifetime (0.69 versus 0.52, P = 0.05); the higher ICCs for the activity-based questionnaire were primarily derived from the results for females. Research is needed to further improve the activity-based questionnaire approach for long-term sun exposure assessment. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):464–71)

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

The use of visual analogue scales to assess motivation to eat in human subjects: a review of their reliability and validity with an evaluation of new hand-held computerized stsytems for temporal tracking of appetite ratings.

This present paper reviews the reliability and validity of visual analogue scales (VAS) in terms of (1) their ability to predict feeding behaviour, (2) their sensitivity to experimental manipulations, and (3) their reproducibility. VAS correlate with, but do not reliably predict, energy intake to the extent that they could be used as a proxy of energy intake. They do predict meal initiation in subjects eating their normal diets in their normal environment. Under laboratory conditions, subjectively rated motivation to eat using VAS is sensitive to experimental manipulations and has been found to be reproducible in relation to those experimental regimens. Other work has found them not to be reproducible in relation to repeated protocols. On balance, it would appear, in as much as it is possible to quantify, that VAS exhibit a good degree of within-subject reliability and validity in that they predict with reasonable certainty, meal initiation and amount eaten, and are sensitive to experimental manipulations. This reliability and validity appears more pronounced under the controlled (but more arti®cial) conditions of the laboratory where the signal : noise ratio in experiments appears to be elevated relative to real life. It appears that VAS are best used in within-subject, repeated-measures designs where the effect of different treatments can be compared under similar circumstances. They are best used in conjunction with other measures (e.g. feeding behaviour, changes in plasma metabolites) rather than as proxies for these variables. New hand-held electronic appetite rating systems (EARS) have been developed to increase reliability of data capture and decrease investigator workload. Recent studies have compared these with traditional pen and paper (P&P) VAS. The EARS have been found to be sensitive to experimental manipulations and reproducible relative to P&P. However, subjects appear to exhibit a signi®cantly more constrained use of the scale when using the EARS relative to the P&P. For this reason it is recommended that the two techniques are not used interchangeably

A new method for improving reliability and line loss in distribution networks

In this paper, both Distributed Generators (DG) and capacitors are allocated and sized optimally for improving line loss and reliability. The objective function is composed of the investment cost of DGs and capacitors along with loss and reliability which are converted to the genuine dollar. The bus voltage and line current are considered as constraints which should be satisfied during the optimization procedure. Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization as a heuristic based technique is used as the optimization method. The IEEE 69-bus test system is modified and employed to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The results illustrate that the lowest cost planning is found by optimizing both DGs and capacitors in distribution networks.

Parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance when managing atopic dermatitis in children: Instrument reliability and validity

BACKGROUND: Support and education for parents faced with managing a child with atopic dermatitis is crucial to the success of current treatments. Interventions aiming to improve parent management of this condition are promising. Unfortunately, evaluation is hampered by lack of precise research tools to measure change. OBJECTIVES: To develop a suite of valid and reliable research instruments to appraise parents' self-efficacy for performing atopic dermatitis management tasks; outcome expectations of performing management tasks; and self-reported task performance in a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis. METHODS: The Parents' Eczema Management Scale (PEMS) and the Parents' Outcome Expectations of Eczema Management Scale (POEEMS) were developed from an existing self-efficacy scale, the Parental Self-Efficacy with Eczema Care Index (PASECI). Each scale was presented in a single self-administered questionnaire, to measure self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance related to managing child atopic dermatitis. Each was tested with a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis, and psychometric evaluation of the scales' reliability and validity was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A community-based convenience sample of 120 parents of children with atopic dermatitis completed the self-administered questionnaire. Participants were recruited through schools across Australia. RESULTS: Satisfactory internal consistency and test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all three scales. Construct validity was satisfactory, with positive relationships between self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and general perceived self-efficacy; self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and self-reported task performance; and self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and outcome expectations. Factor analyses revealed two-factor structures for PEMS and PASECI alike, with both scales containing factors related to performing routine management tasks, and managing the child's symptoms and behaviour. Factor analysis was also applied to POEEMS resulting in a three-factor structure. Factors relating to independent management of atopic dermatitis by the parent, involving healthcare professionals in management, and involving the child in the management of atopic dermatitis were found. Parents' self-efficacy and outcome expectations had a significant influence on self-reported task performance. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that PEMS and POEEMS are valid and reliable instruments worthy of further psychometric evaluation. Likewise, validity and reliability of PASECI was confirmed.

Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Reliability analysis of transform-based stereo matching techniques, and a new matching constraint

Stereo vision is a method of depth perception, in which depth information is inferred from two (or more) images of a scene, taken from different perspectives. Practical applications for stereo vision include aerial photogrammetry, autonomous vehicle guidance, robotics and industrial automation. The initial motivation behind this work was to produce a stereo vision sensor for mining automation applications. For such applications, the input stereo images would consist of close range scenes of rocks. A fundamental problem faced by matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. This problem involves locating corresponding points or features in two images. For this application, speed, reliability, and the ability to produce a dense depth map are of foremost importance. This work implemented a number of areabased matching algorithms to assess their suitability for this application. Area-based techniques were investigated because of their potential to yield dense depth maps, their amenability to fast hardware implementation, and their suitability to textured scenes such as rocks. In addition, two non-parametric transforms, the rank and census, were also compared. Both the rank and the census transforms were found to result in improved reliability of matching in the presence of radiometric distortion - significant since radiometric distortion is a problem which commonly arises in practice. In addition, they have low computational complexity, making them amenable to fast hardware implementation. Therefore, it was decided that matching algorithms using these transforms would be the subject of the remainder of the thesis. An analytic expression for the process of matching using the rank transform was derived from first principles. This work resulted in a number of important contributions. Firstly, the derivation process resulted in one constraint which must be satisfied for a correct match. This was termed the rank constraint. The theoretical derivation of this constraint is in contrast to the existing matching constraints which have little theoretical basis. Experimental work with actual and contrived stereo pairs has shown that the new constraint is capable of resolving ambiguous matches, thereby improving match reliability. Secondly, a novel matching algorithm incorporating the rank constraint has been proposed. This algorithm was tested using a number of stereo pairs. In all cases, the modified algorithm consistently resulted in an increased proportion of correct matches. Finally, the rank constraint was used to devise a new method for identifying regions of an image where the rank transform, and hence matching, are more susceptible to noise. The rank constraint was also incorporated into a new hybrid matching algorithm, where it was combined a number of other ideas. These included the use of an image pyramid for match prediction, and a method of edge localisation to improve match accuracy in the vicinity of edges. Experimental results obtained from the new algorithm showed that the algorithm is able to remove a large proportion of invalid matches, and improve match accuracy.

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.