An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

Development of an integrated approach to reliability management and operation

The research described in this thesis has been developed as a part of the Reliability and Field Data Management for Multi-component Products (REFIDAM) Project. This project was founded under the Applied Research Grants Scheme administered by Enterprise Ireland. The project was a partnership between Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology and Thermo King Europe. The project aimed to develop a system in order to manage the information required for reliability assessment and improvement of multi-component products, by establishing information flows within the company and information exchange with fleet users.

Thermal effects in Ni/Au and Mo/Au gate metallization AlGaN/GaN HEMT's reliability

AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMT) are key devices for the next generation of high-power, high-frequency and high-temperature electronics applications. Although significant progress has been recently achieved [1], stability and reliability are still some of the main issues under investigation, particularly at high temperatures [2-3]. Taking into account that the gate contact metallization is one of the weakest points in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs, the reliability of Ni, Mo, Pt and refractory metal gates is crucial [4-6]. This work has been focused on the thermal stress and reliability assessment of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs. After an unbiased storage at 350 o C for 2000 hours, devices with Ni/Au gates exhibited detrimental IDS-VDS degradation in pulsed mode. In contrast, devices with Mo/Au gates showed no degradation after similar storage conditions. Further capacitance-voltage characterization as a function of temperature and frequency revealed two distinct trap-related effects in both kinds of devices. At low frequency (< 1MHz), increased capacitance near the threshold voltage was present at high temperatures and more pronounced for the Ni/Au gate HEMT and as the frequency is lower. Such an anomalous “bump” has been previously related to H-related surface polar charges [7]. This anomalous behavior in the C-V characteristics was also observed in Mo/Au gate HEMTs after 1000 h at a calculated channel temperatures of around from 250 o C (T2) up to 320 ºC (T4), under a DC bias (VDS= 25 V, IDS= 420 mA/mm) (DC-life test). The devices showed a higher “bump” as the channel temperature is higher (Fig. 1). At 1 MHz, the higher C-V curve slope of the Ni/Au gated HEMTs indicated higher trap density than Mo/Au metallization (Fig. 2). These results highlight that temperature is an acceleration factor in the device degradation, in good agreement with [3]. Interface state density analysis is being performed in order to estimate the trap density and activation energy.

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

AN ENTROPIC THEORY OF DAMAGE WITH APPLICATIONS TO CORROSION-FATIGUE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT

This dissertation demonstrates an explanation of damage and reliability of critical components and structures within the second law of thermodynamics. The approach relies on the fundamentals of irreversible thermodynamics, specifically the concept of entropy generation due to materials degradation as an index of damage. All failure mechanisms that cause degradation, damage accumulation and ultimate failure share a common feature, namely energy dissipation. Energy dissipation, as a fundamental measure for irreversibility in a thermodynamic treatment of non-equilibrium processes, leads to and can be expressed in terms of entropy generation. The dissertation proposes a theory of damage by relating entropy generation to energy dissipation via generalized thermodynamic forces and thermodynamic fluxes that formally describes the resulting damage. Following the proposed theory of entropic damage, an approach to reliability and integrity characterization based on thermodynamic entropy is discussed. It is shown that the variability in the amount of the thermodynamic-based damage and uncertainties about the parameters of a distribution model describing the variability, leads to a more consistent and broader definition of the well know time-to-failure distribution in reliability engineering. As such it has been shown that the reliability function can be derived from the thermodynamic laws rather than estimated from the observed failure histories. Furthermore, using the superior advantages of the use of entropy generation and accumulation as a damage index in comparison to common observable markers of damage such as crack size, a method is proposed to explain the prognostics and health management (PHM) in terms of the entropic damage. The proposed entropic-based damage theory to reliability and integrity is then demonstrated through experimental validation. Using this theorem, the corrosion-fatigue entropy generation function is derived, evaluated and employed for structural integrity, reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Aluminum 7075-T651 specimens tested.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Development of a life cycle management system for remote products.

The research described in this thesis has been developed as a part of the Reliability and Field Data Management for Multi-Component Products (REFIDAM) Project. This project was funded under the Applied Research Grants Scheme administered by Enterprise Ireland. The project was a partnership between Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology and an industrial company, Thermo King Europe. The project aimed to develop a system to manage the information required for maintenance costing, cost of ownership, reliability assessment and improvement of multi-component products, by establishing information flows between the customer network and across the Thermo King organisation.

Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.

Planejamento da expansão de sistemas de transmissão considerando análise de confiabilidade e incertezas na demanda futura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Validação do roteiro de entrevista de Habilidades Sociais Educativas Parentais (RE-HSE-P)

The study of the parental educative social skills is extremely important for promoting the development and learning of children within interactive situations. The objective of this study was to assess reliability and validity of the Parental Educative Social Skills Interview Script (RE-HSE-P). It was proceeded: a) the test-retest reliability assessment, with a sample of 41 participants assessed in two distinct moments, with an interval of two months and the Cronbach's alpha was calculated; b) 213 parents of preschoolers (n =114) and school age children (n = 98) evaluated their children,were assessed for the construct and discrimination validity studies, differentiated in groups: a) demand for psychological intervention x community children without problems and b) children with behavior problems x children without behavior problems. The results showed satisfactory values of internal consistency and validity; besides, the factorial analysis pointed a unifactorial structure called positive parent-child interaction

Ensayos acelerados de fiabilidad de células solares de concentración

SUMMARY Concentration Photovoltaic Systems (CPV) have been proposed as an alternative to conventional systems. During the last years, there has been a boom of the CPV industry caused by the technological progress in all the elements of the system. and mainly caused by the use of multijunction solar cells based on III-V semiconductors, with efficiencies exceeding to 43%. III-V solar cells have been used with high reliability results in a great number of space missions without concentration. However, there are no previous results regarding their reliability in concentration terrestrial applications, where the working conditions are completely different. This lack of experience, together with the important industrial interest, has generated the need to evaluate the reliability of the cells. For this reason, nowadays there are several research centers around the undertaking this task. The evaluation of the reliability of this type of devices by means of accelerated tests is especially problematic when they work at medium or high concentration, because it is practically impossible to emulate real working conditions of the cell inside climatic chambers. In fact, as far as we know, the results that appear in this Thesis are the first estimating the Activation Energy of the failure mechanism involved, as well as the warranty of the III-V concentrator solar cells tested here. To evaluate the reliability of III-V very high concentrator solar cells by means of accelerated tests, a variety of activities, described in this Thesis have been carried out. The First Part of the memory presents the theoretical part of the Doctoral Thesis. After the Introduction, chapter 2 presents the state of the art in degradation and reliability of CPV systems and solar cells. Chapter 3 introduces some reliability definitions and the application of specific statistical functions to the evaluation of the reliability and parameters. From these functions, important parameters will be calculated to be used later in the experimental results of Thesis. The Second Part of the memory contains the experimental. Chapter 4 shows the types of accelerated tests and the main goals pursuit with them when carried out over CPV systems and solar cells. In order to evaluate quantitatively the reliability of the III-V concentrator solar cells used in these tests, some modifications have been introduced which discussion will be tackled here. Based on this analysis the working plan of the tests carried out in this Doctoral Thesis is presented. Chapter 5 presents a new methodology as well as the necessary instrumentation to carry out the tests described here. This new methodology takes into account the adaptation, improvement and novel techniques needed to test concentrator solar cells. The core of this memory is chapter 6, which presents the results of the characterization of the cells during the accelerated life tests and the analysis of the aforementioned results with the purpose of getting quantitative values of reliability in real working conditions. The acceleration factor of the accelerated life tests, under nominal working conditions has been calculated. Accordingly, the validity of the methodology as well as the calculations based on the reliability assessment, have also been demonstrated. Finally, quantitative values of degradation, reliability and warranty of the solar cells under field nominal working conditions have been calculated. With the development of this Doctoral Thesis the reliability of very high concentrator GaAs solar cells of small area has been evaluated. It is very interesting to generalize the procedures described up to this point to III-V multijunction solar cells of greater area. Therefore, chapter 7 develops this generalization and introduces also a useful thermal modeling by means of finite elements of the test cells’ circuits. In the last chapter, the summary of the results and the main contributions of this Thesis are outlined and future research activities are identified. RESUMEN Los Sistemas Fotovoltaicos de Concentración (SFC) han sido propuestos como una alternativa a los sistemas convencionales de generación de energía. Durante los últimos años ha habido un auge de los SFC debido a las mejoras tecnológicas en todos los elementos del sistema, y principalmente por el uso de células multiunión III-V que superan el 43% de rendimiento. Las células solares III-V han sido utilizadas con elevada fiabilidad en aplicaciones espaciales sin concentración, pero no existe experiencia de su fiabilidad en ambiente terrestre a altos niveles de concentración solar. Esta falta de experiencia junto al gran interés industrial ha generado la necesidad de evaluar la fiabilidad de las células, y actualmente hay un significativo número de centros de investigación trabajando en esta área. La evaluación de la fiabilidad de este tipo de dispositivos mediante ensayos acelerados es especialmente problemática cuando trabajan a media o alta concentración por la casi imposibilidad de emular las condiciones de trabajo reales de la célula dentro de cámaras climáticas. De hecho, que sepamos, en los resultados de esta Tesis se evalúa por primera vez la Energía de Activación del mecanismo de fallo de las células, así como la garantía en campo de las células de concentración III-V analizadas. Para evaluar la fiabilidad de células solares III-V de muy alta concentración mediante ensayos de vida acelerada se han realizado diversas actividades que han sido descritas en la memoria de la Tesis. En la Primera Parte de la memoria se presenta la parte teórica de la Tesis Doctoral. Tras la Introducción, en el capítulo 2 se muestra el estado del arte en degradación y fiabilidad de células y Sistemas Fotovoltaicos de Concentración. En el capítulo 3 se exponen de forma resumida las definiciones de fiabilidad y funciones estadísticas que se utilizan para la evaluación de la fiabilidad y sus parámetros, las cuales se emplearán posteriormente en los ensayos descritos en este Tesis. La Segunda Parte de la memoria es experimental. En el capítulo 4 se describen los tipos y objetivos de los ensayos acelerados actualmente aplicados a SFC y a las células, así como las modificaciones necesarias que permitan evaluar cuantitativamente la fiabilidad de las células solares de concentración III-V. En base a este análisis se presenta la planificación de los trabajos realizados en esta Tesis Doctoral. A partir de esta planificación y debido a la necesidad de adaptar, mejorar e innovar las técnicas de ensayos de vida acelerada para una adecuada aplicación a este tipo de dispositivos, en el capítulo 5 se muestra la metodología empleada y la instrumentación necesaria para realizar los ensayos de esta Tesis Doctoral. El núcleo de la memoria es el capítulo 6, en él se presentan los resultados de caracterización de las células durante los ensayos de vida acelerada y el análisis de dichos resultados con el objetivo de obtener valores cuantitativos de fiabilidad en condiciones reales de trabajo. Se calcula el Factor de Aceleración de los ensayos acelerados con respecto a las condiciones nominales de funcionamiento a partir de la Energía de Activación obtenida, y se demuestra la validez de la metodología y cálculos empleados, que son la base de la evaluación de la fiabilidad. Finalmente se calculan valores cuantitativos de degradación, fiabilidad y garantía de las células en condiciones nominales en campo durante toda la vida de la célula. Con el desarrollo de esta Tesis Doctoral se ha evaluado la fiabilidad de células III-V de área pequeña, pero es muy interesante generalizar los procedimientos aquí desarrollados para las células III-V comerciales de área grande. Por este motivo, en el capítulo 7 se analiza dicha generalización, incluyendo el modelado térmico mediante elementos finitos de los circuitos de ensayo de las células. En el último capítulo se realiza un resume del trabajo y las aportaciones realizadas, y se identifican las líneas de trabajo a emprender en el futuro.

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Formal analysis of human-computer interaction using model checking

Experiments with simulators allow psychologists to better understand the causes of human errors and build models of cognitive processes to be used in human reliability assessment (HRA). This paper investigates an approach to task failure analysis based on patterns of behaviour, by contrast to more traditional event-based approaches. It considers, as a case study, a formal model of an air traffic control (ATC) system which incorporates controller behaviour. The cognitive model is formalised in the CSP process algebra. Patterns of behaviour are expressed as temporal logic properties. Then a model-checking technique is used to verify whether the decomposition of the operator's behaviour into patterns is sound and complete with respect to the cognitive model. The decomposition is shown to be incomplete and a new behavioural pattern is identified, which appears to have been overlooked in the analysis of the data provided by the experiments with the simulator. This illustrates how formal analysis of operator models can yield fresh insights into how failures may arise in interactive systems.

Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.