Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Many democratic decision making institutions involve quorum rules. Such rules are commonly motivated by concerns about the “legitimacy” or “representativeness” of decisions reached when only a subset of eligible voters participates. A prominent example of this can be found in the context of direct democracy mechanisms, such as referenda and initiatives. We conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the consequences of the two most common types of quorum rules: a participation quorum and an approval quorum. We find that both types of quora lead to lower participation rates, dramatically increasing the likelihood of full-fledged electoral boycotts on the part of those who endorse the Status Quo. This discouraging effect is significantly larger under a participation quorum than under an approval quorum.

The disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

The Disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

Les "grans negociacions" a la Unió Europea: la formació de preferències, les estratègies y l’èxit a les negociacions

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la School of politics and international relations, de la University College of Dublin, United Kingdom, entre 2007 i 2009. L’ objectiu del projecte present ha estat contribuir a l’estudi de les negociacions intergovernamentals a la Unió Europea (UE). En primer lloc, s’ha estudiat les estratègies de negociació del estats membres a negociacions intergovernamentals en la UE, per la qual cosa s’ha desenvolupat una tipologia d’estratègies de negociació, diferenciant entre les més agressives (conflictives) i les menys agressives (cooperatives). La conclusió principal ha estat que els actors difereixen en la elecció de les estratègies i que és precisament el poder relatiu dels actors que explica quines estratègies adopten. En segon lloc, s’analitza la ratificació dels resultats a les negociacions intergovernamentals, concentrant-me en l’us dels referèndums. La investigació mostra que els referèndums són sovint usats pels partits polítics com un instrument utilitzat durant les campanyes electorals, posant en dubte la tesis de que l’objectiu principal dels referèndums és influenciar els poder relatiu dels estats membres en negociacions intergovernamentals. Finalment, s’ha estudiat com els actors socials influeixen aquestes negociacions en la UE. La evidencia empírica clarament mostra que la pressió que exerceixen els grups de pressió es sovint subestimada.

How accurate are surveyed preferences for public policies? Evidence from a unique institutional setup

Opinion polls are widely used to capture public sentiments on a varietyof issues. If citizens are unwilling to reveal certain policy preferences toothers, opinion polls may fail to characterize population preferences accurately.The innovation of this paper is to use unique data to measurebiases in opinion polls for a broad range of policies. I combine data on184 referenda held in Switzerland between 1987 and 2007, with postballotsurveys that ask for each proposal how the citizens voted. Thedifference between stated preferences in the survey and revealed preferences at the ballot box provides a direct measure of bias in opinion polls.I find that these biases vary by policy areas, with the largest ones occurring in policies on immigration, international integration, and votesinvolving liberal/conservative attitudes. Also, citizens show a tendencyto respond in accordance to the majority.

Monen vaihtoehdon kansanäänestykset ja enemmistöjen mystiikka

Abstract: Referenda with multiple alternatives and the mystique of majorities

Il voto ticinese sull'iniziativa 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014

Riassunto Il presente studio verte sull'analisi del voto relativo all'iniziativa popolare 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014. In particolare, l'analisi si concentra sul voto avvenuto nel Ticino, il cantone svizzero in cui l'iniziativa ha avuto maggiore sostegno. Lo studio si è avvalso di un'inchiesta d'opinione rappresentativa realizzata dall'Osservatorio della vita politica regionale dell'Università di Losanna presso 1.429 cittadini ticinesi nei giorni successivi allo scrutinio. Dopo una contestualizzazione del voto del 9 febbraio rispetto alla storia delle votazioni sui temi di politica estera e migratoria, l'analisi si è concentrata sulla partecipazione al voto. Il ricorso a tre modelli interpretativi (delle risorse, della competenza e della mobilitazione) ha permesso di mostrare come il voto del 9 febbraio sia caratterizzato in particolare modo dal senso del dovere, dall'interesse per la politica e dal legame di partito. L'analisi dell'orientamento di voto evidenzia l'influenza delle dimensioni economiche, politiche, identitarie, e soprattutto, alla stregua di altri voti nel passato recente di questo cantone, una forte tensione tra centro e periferia. Dall'analisi del voto del 9 febbraio emerge un forte timore che vede nel Ticino una 'doppia periferia', verso Berna e in relazione alla vicina Lombardia. Parole chiave: iniziativa popolare, partecipazione, orientamento di voto, centro-periferia. Résumé Cette étude porte sur l'analyse du vote sur l'initiative populaire 'contre l'immigration de masse' du 9 février 2014 et, plus précisément, sur le vote qui s'est déroulé au Tessin, canton suisse dans lequel l'initiative a obtenu le plus large soutien. L'étude a été menée à l'aide d'une enquête d'opinion représentative réalisée par l'Observatoire de la vie politique régionale de l'Université de Lausanne auprès de 1.429 citoyens tessinois dans les jours suivant le scrutin. Après une contextualisation du vote du 9 février par rapport à l'histoire des votations sur les thèmes de la politique étrangère et de l'immigration, l'analyse a porté sur la participation au vote. À ce propos, l'utilisation de trois modèles explicatifs (des ressources, de la compétence et de la mobilisation) a permis de dévoiler que le vote a été caractérisé plus particulièrement par le sens du devoir (habitus du vote), par l'intérêt pour la politique et par le lien avec un parti. L'analyse de l'orientation du vote montre l'influence des aspects économiques, politiques et identitaire ainsi que, à l'instar d'autres votations récemment passées dans le canton italophone, des raisons qui mettent en évidence une vision contrastée du Tessin et notamment le risque de devenir une 'double périphérie' par rapport à Berne et à la Lombardie. Mots-clés: initiative populaire, participation, choix du vote, centre-périphérie. Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert das Abstimmungsverhalten anlässlich der eidgenössischen Volksinitiative 'Gegen Masseneinwanderung' vom 9. Februar 2014. Die Analyse beschränkt sich auf die Abstimmung im Kanton Tessin, wo die Initiative am stärksten unterstützt wurde. Die Studie wurde vom Observatorium des regionalen politischen Lebens der Universität Lausanne durchgeführt und basiert auf einer repräsentativen Umfrage, bei welcher 1429 Bürger des Kantons Tessin in den Tagen nach der Abstimmung teilnahmen. Zunächst wird die Abstimmung vom 9. Februar in Bezug auf die Geschichte verschiedener anderer Abstimmungen zum Thema Aussen- und Immigrationspolitik kontextualisiert. Die Analyse analysiert dann als erstes die Wahlbeteiligung: Der Gebrauch von drei Erklärungsmodellen (Ressourcen, Kompetenz und Mobilisierung) zeigt auf, dass der Entscheid, an der Abstimmung vom 9. Februar überhaupt teilzunehmen, vor allem von Pflichtbewusstsein, politischem Interesse und Parteibindung geprägt war. Das Abstimmungsverhalten selber war dann von ökonomischen und politischen Faktoren, von der eigenen Identität sowie insbesondere - und wie auch schon andere Abstimmungen in der jüngsten Vergangenheit des italienisch-sprechenden Kantons -von einer grossen Angst geprägt, dass das Tessin eine 'doppelte Peripherie' zwischen Bern und der Lombardei werden könnte. Stichwörter: Volksinitiative, Teilnahme, Abstimmungsverhalten, Zentrum-Peripherie Abstract This study focuses on the analysis of the federal vote on the popular initiative 'against mass immigration' of 9 February 2014. More precisely, the analysis focuses on the vote that took place in Ticino, the Swiss canton in which the popular initiative has received the widest support. The study was carried out by the Research Observatory for Regional Politics at the University of Lausanne using a representative survey among 1.429 citizens of Ticino during the days following the vote. After a contextualization of the vote of 9 February with respect to the history of referenda about foreign policy and immigration issues, the analysis first discusses voter turnout. In this regard, the use of three explanatory models (resources, expertise and mobilisation) reveals that participation in the vote of 9 February was especially characterized by one's sense of duty, political interest, and links with a political party. The decision how to vote was then influenced by economic, political and identity factors as well as - like other votes in the recent past in the Italian-speaking canton - the particular fear that Ticino would become a 'double periphery' vis-à-vis both Berne and Lombardy. Keywords: popular initiative, participation, vote, centre-periphery.

Incumbency (dis)advantage when citizens can propose

This paper analyses the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to citizen proposals such as the outcome of referenda or popular initiatives. We argue that these proposals constitute a potential source of electoral disadvantage when citizens factor in their evaluation of the incumbent his reaction to these proposals. This is because an incumbent politician may jeopardize his re-election by implementing policies close to his preferred ones but unpopular among the electorate. We characterize conditions under which this potential disadvantage becomes in fact an electoral advantage for the incumbent. We find that the choices of the incumbent during the legislature will be closest to citizens policy proposals when the intensity of electoral competition is neither too soft nor too tough. Finally, we use our results to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms such as referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition and on the incumbency advantage phenomenon.

Uso do Verapamil em Gestantes Hipertensas Crônicas: análise do Fluxo das Artérias Uterinas e Umbilical

Objetivo: este trabalho, utilizando verapamil, um bloqueador dos canais lentos de cálcio, constituiu ensaio clínico randomizado, duplo-cego e placebo controlado, e objetivou procurar variação do fluxo uteroplacentário e fetoplacentário durante uso oral crônico do fármaco em gestantes com hipertensão crônica leve para moderada. Métodos: 123 pacientes divididas em dois grupos: grupo estudo (n = 61), submetidas a 240 mg/dia de verapamil, e grupo controle (n = 62), submetidas ao placebo. As pacientes randomizadas em grupos de quatro utilizaram a medicação ou placebo durante trinta dias. Um exame do fluxo das artérias uterinas e da artéria umbilical pela dopplervelocimetria foi registrado. Pelo cálculo da média e desvio padrão, foram comparados os valores dos índices de resistência (IR) e pulsatilidade (IP) e da relação sístole/diástole (A/B) das artérias em estudo após administração dos comprimidos. Resultados: o grupo verapamil apresentou os seguintes valores médios para as artérias uterinas: IR = 0,82 (0,28), IP de 1,06 (0,12) e A/B de 2,42 (0,51). O grupo placebo mostrou: IR de 0,75 (0,35), IP de 1,00 (0,18) e A/B de 2,30 (0,38). Quando analisada a artéria umbilical, os valores foram para o grupo verapamil: IR = 0,73 (0,12), IP = 1,04 (0,13) e A/B = 2,94 (0,32). No grupo placebo, IR = 0,70 (0,14), IP = 1,03 (0,07) e A/B = 3,02 (0,78). A análise estatística das diferenças das médias por meio da razão F mostrou não haver diferença entre os dois grupos avaliados. Conclusão: este trabalho referenda o uso do verapamil entre gestantes com hipertensão crônica (leve para moderada), pois não oferece prejuízos no fluxo uteroplacentário e fetoplacentário.

La protection des droits de l'homme dans l'Union européenne avant et après le traité constitutionnel. La Constitution représente-t-elle la bonne voie?

Les Communautés européennes et l'Union européenne ont toujours exprimé leur engagement à respecter les droits de l'homme. Depuis la première Convention intergouvernementale chargée de la rédaction du projet de Charte des Droits Fondamentaux (1999-2001), une deuxième Convention a été organisée. La dernière a proposé le projet de Constitution pour l'Union européenne qui par la suite a été rejeté dans deux referenda nationaux et a soulevé de nombreuses questions sur la légitimité de l'Union et son avenir. Récemment, le Conseil de l'Union Européenne a décidé d'abandonner le projet de Constitution pour l'Union européenne et a ouvert la voie vers le traité modificatif. À part la légitimité de l'Union en tant que organisation internationale ou ordre juridique international et tous les problèmes auxiliaires que la constitutionnalisation implique, ce processus est inextricablement lié au sujet très controversé de la politique des droits de l'homme. Conformément au traité constitutionnel, la Charte d'un côté et la Convention européenne des droits de l'Homme de l'autre seraient devenu parties intégrantes du système constitutionnel européen. Par contre, le nouveau traité modificatif comprendra juste un renvoi à la Charte. Néanmoins, le problème de l'Union européenne demeure l'absence d'une politique cohérente avec toutes ses éléments - des instruments écrits contraignants, l'efficacité des voies de recours, une agence des droits de l'homme, un budget et un plan horizontal. Tandis que le traité constitutionnel sans pour autant résoudre tous ces problèmes a représenté un grand pas en avant dans cette direction, le nouveau traité semble être un compromis.

La politique des nationalités : vecteur d’expansion internationale du Second Empire français (1859-1868)

Mémoire de maîtrise utilisant les archives trouvées aux Archives Nationales de France ( AN section Paris), aux archives du Ministère des Affaires étrangères de France (AMAE) et celles du fond d'archives Colonna Walewski (ACW).

Constructing a ‘moment of crisis’ and its adequate solution

The rejection of the European Constitution marks an important crystallization point for debate about the European Union (EU) and the integration process. The European Constitution was envisaged as the founding document of a renewed and enlarged European Union and thus it was rather assumed to find wide public support. Its rejection was not anticipated. The negative referenda in France and the Netherlands therefore led to a controversial debate about the more fundamental meaning and the consequences of the rejection both for the immediate state of affairs as well as for the further integration process. The rejection of the Constitution and the controversy about its correct interpretation therefore present an intriguing puzzle for political analysis. Although the treaty rejection was taken up widely in the field of European Studies, the focus of existing analyses has predominantly been on explaining why the current situation occurred. Underlying these approaches is the premise that by establishing the reasons for the rejection it is possible to derive the ‘true’ meaning of the event for the EU integration process. In my paper I rely on an alternative, discourse theoretical approach which aims to overcome the positivist perspective dominating the existing analyses. I argue that the meaning of the event ‘treaty rejection’ is not fixed or inherent to it but discursively constructed. The critical assessment of this concrete meaning-production is of high relevance as the specific meaning attributed to the treaty rejection effectively constrains the scope for supposedly ‘reasonable’ options for action, both in the concrete situation and in the further European integration process more generally. I will argue that the overall framing suggests a fundamental technocratic approach to governance from part of the Commission. Political struggle and public deliberation is no longer foreseen as the concrete solutions to the citizens’ general concerns are designed by supposedly apolitical experts. Through the communicative diffusion and the active implementation of this particular model of governance the Commission shapes the future integration process in a more substantial way than is obvious from its seemingly limited immediate problem-solving orientation of overcoming the ‘constitutional crisis’. As the European Commission is a central actor in the discourse production my analysis focuses on the specific interpretation of the situation put forward by the Commission. In order to work out the Commission’s particular take on the event I conducted a frame analysis (according to Benford/Snow) on a body of key sources produced in the context of coping with the treaty rejection.

Análisis de la influencia de las corrientes de integración europea en las decisiones políticas irlandesas con respecto al futuro de la construcción de la UE durante el periodo 2000 a 2009.

Esta monografía es una aproximación a las definiciones de Europeísmo y Euroescepticismo irlandés, basadas en las características obtenidas del análisis del marco (discurso manejado, actores principales y repertorio) de las campañas desarrolladas durante los 4 referendos irlandeses en temas europeos (Tratados de Niza y Lisboa) entre 2000 y 2009.

Ler o mundo, compreender a palavra : ambiente alfabetizador como espaço de construções sociocognitivas

Esta dissertação aborda as construções sociocognitivas de sujeitos adultos durante o processo de alfabetização, em ambiente alfabetizador, entendido como espaço físico e social que promove interações. A proposta pedagógica desenvolvida buscou aliar tecnologia e alfabetização como desencadeadores de aprendizagem dos sujeitos. Nesse sentido, o conceito de alfabetização equivale ao conceito de letramento, porque busca aproximar os sujeitos do mundo no qual estão inseridos, podendo assim moverem-se numa sociedade letrada e permeada por tecnologias. Os fundamentos teóricos que respaldam as análises dos dados encontram-se na proposta freireana de alfabetização de adultos, assumida pelo Movimento de Alfabetização de Jovens e Adultos, que concebe o ato educativo como resultante do diálogo estabelecido entre os sujeitos portadores de conhecimento. Referenda também nosso estudo a concepção piagetiana de construção de conhecimento voltada, principalmente, para os Estados de Tomada de Consciência como reveladores dos movimentos cognitivos dos sujeitos. Funda-se à teoria de Piaget, o exposto por Freire quanto à passagem da consciência intransitiva para a conscientização. Na perspectiva dos autores, são analisadas as falas e posturas dos sujeitos frente ao mundo, tendo como parâmetro temporal o ponto de vista revelado na incursão e no distanciamento do Mova. O laboratório de informática, onde se desenvolveu boa parte da pesquisa, constitui a primeira experiência para todos os sujeitos estudados, o que consiste numa fonte em potencial de desequilíbrios que forçam o sujeito à mobilização de suas estruturas cognitivas. A permanência e as intervenções ocorridas no ambiente alfabetizador possibilitam que os mesmos ultrapassem a condição do fazer mecanizado e avancem para um fazer mais reflexivo, extensivo inclusive a outros contextos que integram. A pesquisa valida a aproximação entre tecnologia e alfabetização de adultos, enfatizando que esse campo é rico em possibilidades pedagógicas geradoras de aprendizagem.

Política nacional de educação ambiental: contradições e disputas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)