Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Powder flow criteria for design of vertical silo walls

For design of vertical silos walls involving the storage of bulk solids to be safe and reliable, it is important knowing the largest possible number of variables such as: flow properties, silo geometry and pattern of flow desired. In order to validate the theories of flow prediction and design of conical hoppers, the flow properties of two bulk solids were determined, the theories of Jenike's flowability and Enstad and Walker for hopper design were analyzed and the results were compared with those experimentally obtained in a reduced model of a semicircular-section silo. Results show that Enstad theory for the hopper design is adequate to occur mass flow inside the silo, and for the sizing of the discharge outlet, the Walker's theory was closer to the appropriate than Jenike's theory, which was higher around 100% than the experimental hopper outlet.

Predicting variety composite means without diallel crossing

Prediction of variety composite means was shown to be feasible without diallel crossing the parental varieties. Thus, the predicted mean for a quantitative trait of a composite is given by: Yk = a1 sigmaVj + a2sigmaTj + a3 - a4, with coefficients a1 = (n - 2k)/k²(n - 2); a2 = 2n(k - 1)/k²(n - 2); a3 = n(k - 1)/k(n - 1)(n - 2); and a4 = n²(k - 1)/k(n - 1)(n - 2); summation is for j = 1 to k, where k is the size of the composite (number of parental varieties of a particular composite) and n is the total number of parent varieties. Vj is the mean of varieties and Tj is the mean of topcrosses (pool of varieties as tester), and and are the respective average values in the whole set. Yield data from a 7 x 7 variety diallel cross were used for the variety means and for the "simulated" topcross means to illustrate the proposed procedure. The proposed prediction procedure was as effective as the prediction based on Yk = - ( -)/k, where and refer to the mean of hybrids (F1) and parental varieties, respectively, in a variety diallel cross. It was also shown in the analysis of variance that the total sum of squares due to treatments (varieties and topcrosses) can be orthogonally partitioned following the reduced model Yjj’ = mu + ½(v j + v j’) + + h j+ h j’, thus making possible an F test for varieties, average heterosis and variety heterosis. Least square estimates of these effects are also given

Landscape structure mediates the effects of a stressor on field vole populations

Spatio-temporal landscape heterogeneity has rarely been considered in population-level impact assessments. Here we test whether landscape heterogeneity is important by examining the case of a pesticide applied seasonally to orchards which may affect non-target vole populations, using a validated ecologically realistic and spatially explicit agent-based model. Voles thrive in unmanaged grasslands and untreated orchards but are particularly exposed to applied pesticide treatments during dispersal between optimal habitats. We therefore hypothesised that vole populations do better (1) in landscapes containing more grassland and (2) where areas of grassland are closer to orchards, but (3) do worse if larger areas of orchards are treated with pesticide. To test these hyposeses we made appropriate manipulations to a model landscape occupied by field voles. Pesticide application reduced model population sizes in all three experiments, but populations subsequently wholly or partly recovered. Population depressions were, as predicted, lower in landscapes containing more unmanaged grassland, in landscapes with reduced distance between grassland and orchards, and in landscapes with fewer treated orchards. Population recovery followed a similar pattern except for an unexpected improvement in recovery when the area of treated orchards was increased. Outside the period of pesticide application, orchards increase landscape connectivity and facilitate vole dispersal and so speed population recovery. Overall our results show that accurate prediction of population impact cannot be achieved without taking account of landscape structure. The specifics of landscape structure and habitat connectivity are likely always important in mediating the effects of stressors.

Custos de ajustamento e a dinâmica da estrutura de capital em empresas brasileiras

Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Fundos de investimento imobiliário no Brasil: as características que explicam o desempenho

O objetivo deste trabalho é ajudar o investidor que optou por investir seus recursos no mercado imobiliário a tomar sua decisão de investimento com base nas características endógenas facilmente identificáveis no prospecto dos Fundos de Investimento Imobiliários (FIIs). Foram selecionadas aquelas consideradas importantes pela literatura e foram construídos alguns modelos para testar sua influência na rentabilidade. Inicialmente, foi construído um modelo completo, com todas as variáveis, que apresentou resultados pouco relevantes, já que a maioria das variáveis não apresentou significância. Em seguida, um modelo reduzido foi montado com as variáveis que mais contribuíam para a rentabilidade, obtendo-se resultados relevantes. Através desse modelo, observou-se que FIIs que investem em desenvolvimento imobiliário, com foco no mercado residencial e com baixas taxas de administração, geraram maiores rentabilidades ao investidor.

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Design of a control system using linear matrix inequalities for the active vibration control of a plate

The study of algorithms for active vibration control in smart structures is an area of interest, mainly due to the demand for better performance of mechanical systems, such as aircraft and aerospace structures. Smart structures, formed using actuators and sensors, can improve the dynamic performance with the application of several kinds of controllers. This article describes the application of a technique based on linear matrix inequalities (LMI) to design an active control system. The positioning of the actuators, the design of a robust state feedback controller and the design of an observer are all achieved using LMI. The following are considered in the controller design: limited actuator input, bounded output (energy) and robustness to parametric uncertainties. Active vibration control of a flat plate is chosen as an application example. The model is identified using experimental data by an eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) and the placement of the two piezoelectric actuators and single sensor is determined using a finite element model (FEM) and an optimization procedure. A robust controller for active damping is designed using an LMI framework, and a reduced model with observation and control spillover effects is implemented using a computer. The simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the approach, and show that the control system increases the damping in some of the modes.

Mapping quantitative trait loci in Gallus gallus using principal components

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Supersymmetry flows, semi-symmetric space sine-Gordon models and the Pohlmeyer reduction

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Abelian-Higgs and vortices from ABJM: towards a string realization of AdS/CMT

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ponte mista de madeira-concreto em vigas treliçadas de madeira

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Redução de ordem de modelos matemáticos lineares usando algoritmos genéticos

Nesta dissertação apresenta-se o problema de redução de ordem de modelos dinâmicos lineares, sob o ponto de vista de otimização via Algoritmos Genéticos. Uma função custo, obtida a partir da norma dos coeficientes do numerador da função de transferência do erro entre o modelo original e o reduzido, e minimizada por meio de um algoritmo genético, com consequente calculo dos parâmetros do modelo reduzido. O procedimento e aplicado em alguns exemplos que demonstram a validade da abordagem.

Métodos sísmicos de refração e eletromagnético aplicados ao estudo de um paleocanal da Ilha do Marajó, Pará

Os métodos sísmico de refração e eletromagnético foram aplicados, em caráter experimental, à prospecção de água subterrânea. A eficiência destes métodos foi testada com cerca de 1.500m de perfis de refração rasa na delimitação geométrica em três dimensões de um paleocanal na região dos campos naturais da Ilha de Marajó e com um perfil eletromagnético (técnica Slingram) para a detecção de contatos laterais de água doce-água salobra. A interpretação dos dados sísmicos foi realizada com as equações de tempo de intersecção para n camadas inclinadas com o auxílio do controle geológico de 2 (dois) poços para contornar problemas de camadas não detectadas. Obteve-se uma baixa velocidade (0,81 km/s) para os sedimentos silte-arenosos saturados que preenchem o paleocanal. Em virtude da inversão de velocidades ter sido obtida como resultado para estes sedimentos, não se aconselha o mapeamento de paleocanais pela sísmica de refração, salvo com a utilização de técnicas especiais de campo (registro digital, 'up-hole survey', registro ondas S, reflexão simultânea, ...). Os dados eletromagnéticos foram analisados semi-quantitativamente com o auxílio de um modelo reduzido construído a partir de uma seção de resistividades aparentes. Um diagrama de Argand, traçado com os dados de laboratório, fornece subsídios para a determinação da condutância em ambientes de sedimentos não consolidados análogos ao de Marajó. Recomenda-se a utilização dos métodos eletromagnéticos para o reconhecimento lateral de zonas de água doce-água-salobra, uma vez que a componente quadratura da frequência alta (2640 Hz) define, com precisão suficiente, estas zonas. A comparação dos resultados dos dois métodos mostra que apenas parte do paleocanal se comporta como um aquífero.