Dockers utility in Labour Day procession 1965 Brisbane Australia

Holden utility carrying members of the Federated Ship Painters and Dockers Union during the Labour Day march in 1965, Brisbane, Australia. Anti conscription banners can be seen in the background, and the facade of the Pearl Assurance Building.

Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

The clinical utility of the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test as a screening test for mild dementia

Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test (HVLT) could be used as a valid and reliable screening test for mild dementia in older people, and to compare its performance to that of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Method. Using a cross-sectional design, we studied three groups of older subjects recruited from a district geriatric psychiatry service: (1) 26 patients with DSM-IV dementia and MMSE scores of 18 or better; (2) 15 patients with psychiatric diagnoses other than dementia; and (3) 15 normal controls. The relationship of each potential cutting point on the HVLT and the MMSE was examined against the independently ascertained DSM-IV diagnoses of dementia using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results. The subjects consisted of 21 (37.5%) males and 35 (62.5%) females with a mean age of 74.7 (SD 6.1) years and a mean of 8.5 (SD 1.8) years of formal education. ROC analysis indicated that the optimal cutting point for detecting mild dementia in this group of subjects using the HVLT was 18/19 (sensitivity = 0.96, specificity = 0.80) and using the MMSE was 25/26 (sensitivity = 0.88, specificity = 0.93). Conclusions. The HVLT can be recommended as a valid and reliable screening test for mild dementia and as an adjunct in the clinical assessment of older people. The HVLT had better sensitivity than the MMSE in detecting patients with mild dementia, whereas the MMSE had better specificity. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Minimum-order stable recursive filter design via the genetic algorithm approach

In this paper, the minimum-order stable recursive filter design problem is proposed and investigated. This problem is playing an important role in pipeline implementation sin signal processing. Here, the existence of a high-order stable recursive filter is proved theoretically, in which the upper bound for the highest order of stable filters is given. Then the minimum-order stable linear predictor is obtained via solving an optimization problem. In this paper, the popular genetic algorithm approach is adopted since it is a heuristic probabilistic optimization technique and has been widely used in engineering designs. Finally, an illustrative example is sued to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

Background risk in generalized expected utility theory

In this paper, it is shown that, for a wide range of risk-averse generalized expected utility preferences, independent risks are complementary, contrary to the results for expected utility preferences satisfying conditions such as proper and standard risk aversion.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

Tests for ovarian reserve: reliability and utility

Purpose of review This review discusses ovarian reserve tests for ovulation induction and their application in determining fertility capacity, and their current applications to assess risk of natural ovarian failure and to estimate ovarian function after cancer treatment. Recent findings The current arsenal of ovarian reserve tests comprises hormonal markers [basal follicle stimulating hormone, estradiol, inhibin-B, antimullerian hormone (AMH)] and ultrasonographic markers [ovarian volume, antral follicle counts (AFCs)]. These markers have limitations in terms of which test(s) should be used to reliably predict ovarian reserve with regard to accuracy, invasiveness, cost, convenience, and utility. Several studies have correlated sonographic AFCs with serum AMH levels for predicting the ovarian response to ovulation induction protocols during assisted reproduction treatments. Summary Serum AMH levels and AFC are reliable tests for predicting the ovarian response to ovulation induction. However, none of the currently employed tests of ovarian reserve can reliably predict pregnancy after assisted conception. Further, ovarian reserve tests cannot predict the onset of reproductive and hormonal menopause; thus, they should be used with caution for reproductive life-programming counseling. Moreover, there is no evidence to support the use of ovarian reserve tests to estimate the risk of ovarian sufficiency after cancer treatments.

Secondary Lymphangiectasia of the Small Bowel: Utility of Double Balloon Enteroscopy for Diagnosis and Management

Sporadic lymphangiectasias are commonly found throughout the small bowel and are considered to be normal. Not uncommonly, lymphangiectasias are pathologic and can lead to mid-gastrointestinal bleeding, abdominal pain and protein-losing enteropathy. Pathologic lymphangiectasias of the small bowel include primary lymphangiectasia, secondary lymphangiectasia and lymphaticovenous malformations. In this report we present three different cases of small bowel lymphangiectasia detected by double balloon enteroscopy. The patients were diagnosed with South American blastomycosis, tuberculosis and primary small bowel lymphangioma. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Utility of Ictal Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy With Hippocampal Atrophy: A Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND: The development of newer diagnostic technologies has reduced the need for invasive electroencephalographic (EEG) studies in identifying the epileptogenic zone, especially in adult patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy and hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE-HS). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate ictal single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in the evaluation and treatment of patients with MTLE-HS. METHODS: MTLE patients were randomly assigned to those with (SPECT, n = 124) and without ictal SPECT (non-SPECT, n = 116) in an intent-to-treat protocol. Primary end points were the proportion of patients with invasive EEG studies, and those offered surgery. Secondary end points were the length of hospital stay and the proportion of patients with secondarily generalized seizures (SGS) during video-EEG, postsurgical seizure outcome, and hospital cost. RESULTS: The proportion of patients offered surgery was similar in the SPECT (85%) and non-SPECT groups (81%), as well as the proportion that had invasive EEG studies (27% vs 23%). The mean duration of hospital stay was 1 day longer for the SPECT group (P < 0.001). SGS occurred in 51% of the SPECT and 26% of the non-SPECT group (P < 0.001). The cost of the presurgical evaluation was 35% higher for the SPECT compared with the non-SPECT group (P < 0.001). The proportion of patients seizure-free after surgery was similar in the SPECT (59%) compared with non-SPECT group (54%). CONCLUSION: Ictal-SPECT did not add localizing value beyond what was provided by EEG-video telemetry and structural MRI that altered the surgical decision and outcome for MTLE-HS patients. Ictal-SPECT increased hospital stay was associated with increased costs and a higher chance of SGS during video-EEG monitoring. These findings support the notion that a protocol including ictal SPECT is equivalent to one without SPECT in the presurgical evaluation of adult patients with MTLE-HS.

Synthesis and stereochemistry of some bicyclic gamma-lactones from parasitic wasps (Hymenoptera : Braconidae). Utility of hydrolytic kinetic resolution of epoxides and palladium(II)-catalyzed hydroxycyclization-carbonylation-lactonization of ene-diols

A palladium(II)-catalyzed hydroxycyclization-carbonylation-lactonization sequence with appropriate pent-4-ene-1,3-diols provides efficient access to the bicyclic gamma -lactones, 5-n-butyl- and 5-n-hexyltetrahydrofuro-[3,2-b]furan-2(3H)-ones (3) and (4), respectively, in both racemic and enantiomeric forms. Some of the substrate pent-4-ene-1,3-diols of high enantiomeric excess (ee) have been derived from racemic terminal epoxides by hydrolytic kinetic resolution (HKR) using cobalt (III)-salen complexes. (9Z,12R)-(+)-Ricinoleic acid also serves as a chiral pool source of other pent-4-ene-1,3-diols. These syntheses and enantioselective gas chromatography confirm the structures and absolute stereochemistry of the lactones in some species of parasitic wasps (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). The highly abundant 5-n-hexyltetrahydrofuro-[3,2-b]furan-2(3H)-one (4) in Diachasmimorpha kraussii and D. longicaudata is of high ee (> 99%) with (3aR,5R,6aR) stereochemistry.