Relationship between sunlight and the age of onset of bipolar disorder:an international multisite study

Background - The onset of bipolar disorder is influenced by the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We previously found that a large increase in sunlight in springtime was associated with a lower age of onset. This study extends this analysis with more collection sites at diverse locations, and includes family history and polarity of first episode. Methods - Data from 4037 patients with bipolar I disorder were collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries at latitudes spanning 3.2 north (N) to 63.4 N and 38.2 south (S) of the equator. The age of onset of the first episode, onset location, family history of mood disorders, and polarity of first episode were obtained retrospectively, from patient records and/or direct interview. Solar insolation data were obtained for the onset locations. Results - There was a large, significant inverse relationship between maximum monthly increase in solar insolation and age of onset, controlling for the country median age and the birth cohort. The effect was reduced by half if there was no family history. The maximum monthly increase in solar insolation occurred in springtime. The effect was one-third smaller for initial episodes of mania than depression. The largest maximum monthly increase in solar insolation occurred in northern latitudes such as Oslo, Norway, and warm and dry areas such as Los Angeles, California. Limitations - Recall bias for onset and family history data. Conclusions - A large springtime increase in sunlight may have an important influence on the onset of bipolar disorder, especially in those with a family history of mood disorders.

Systems Modeling of Lung Cancer Screening Programs to Improve Quality

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Catch and effort from a recreational trolling fishery in a large lake

Over recent decades recreational fisheries have grown substantially throughout the world. Despite this increase, catches from recreational fisheries have often been ignored in fisheries management, although this is now being remedied. Monitoring recreational fisheries can be expensive, and the primary means used for monitoring is angler (creel) surveys, typically funded from sales of fishing licences. The studies presented in this thesis examine different approaches to monitoring recreational trolling fisheries’ catch and effort, where fishing licenses are not required and there are no reporting requirements. I present results from a complemented roving/mail-in survey undertaken during 2013-2014 to estimate recreational effort and catch of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (S. trutta) in the largest lake in the European Union, Lake Vänern, Sweden. I also evaluate different angler catch reporting methods (mail-in, tournament reports and face-to-face interviews) and compare catch rates within and among spring and fall fishing periods. In addition, mail-in survey data are examined for recall bias.   I estimate that 28.7 tonnes of salmon and trout combined were harvested by the recreational trolling fishery in 2014, more than the commercial and subsistence fisheries combined. Seasonal differences in both recreational effort and catch were observed. Effort, in boat hours, was significantly higher in spring than in fall. Catch rates of trout were higher in fall than in spring, but there were no seasonal differences in catches of salmon. Harvest per boat day did not differ significantly among catch reporting methods, indicating that all three methods could be useful for managers interested in harvest rates. In contrast, total and released catch per boat day differed among reporting methods, with tournament anglers catching more fish in total. Finally, there was little evidence for recall bias in mail-in surveys, indicating that mail-in surveys are useful for collecting unbiased catch data. My study is the most comprehensive angler survey to date for Lake Vänern, and my results should be of immediate use to local fisheries managers and should also be of interest to researchers and managers interested in estimating catch and effort for fisheries at large spatial scales.

Impact of random and systematic recall errors and selection bias in case--control studies on mobile phone use and brain tumors in adolescents (CEFALO study)

Whether the use of mobile phones is a risk factor for brain tumors in adolescents is currently being studied. Case--control studies investigating this possible relationship are prone to recall error and selection bias. We assessed the potential impact of random and systematic recall error and selection bias on odds ratios (ORs) by performing simulations based on real data from an ongoing case--control study of mobile phones and brain tumor risk in children and adolescents (CEFALO study). Simulations were conducted for two mobile phone exposure categories: regular and heavy use. Our choice of levels of recall error was guided by a validation study that compared objective network operator data with the self-reported amount of mobile phone use in CEFALO. In our validation study, cases overestimated their number of calls by 9% on average and controls by 34%. Cases also overestimated their duration of calls by 52% on average and controls by 163%. The participation rates in CEFALO were 83% for cases and 71% for controls. In a variety of scenarios, the combined impact of recall error and selection bias on the estimated ORs was complex. These simulations are useful for the interpretation of previous case-control studies on brain tumor and mobile phone use in adults as well as for the interpretation of future studies on adolescents.

Can eye movements bias memory recall?

A large body of research suggests that when we retrieve visual information from memory, we look back to the location where we encoded these objects. It has been proposed that the oculomotor trace we act out during encoding is stored in long-term memory, along other contents of the episodic representation. If memory recall triggers the eyes to revisit the location where the stimulus was encoded, is there also an effect in the reverse direction? Can eye movements trigger memory recall? In Experiment 1 participants encoded two faces at two different locations on the computer screen. Then, the average face (morph) of these two faces appeared in either of the two encoding locations and participants had to indicate whether it resembles more the first or second face. In Experiment 2 the morph appeared in a new location, but participants had to repeat one of the oculomotor traces that was used during encoding. Participants’ morph perception was influenced both by the location and the eye-movement it was presented with. Our results suggest that eye-movements can bias memory recall, but only in a short-lasting and rather fragile way.

Attention and memory bias for body image and health related information using an Emotional Stroop task in a non-clinical sample

It has been proposed that body image disturbance is a form of cognitive bias wherein schemas for self-relevant information guide the selective processing of appearancerelated information in the environment. This threatening information receives disproportionately more attention and memory, as measured by an Emotional Stroop and incidental recall task. The aim of this thesis was to expand the literature on cognitive processing biases in non-clinical males and females by incorporating a number of significant methodological refinements. To achieve this aim, three phases of research were conducted. The initial two phases of research provided preliminary data to inform the development of the main study. Phase One was a qualitative exploration of body image concerns amongst males and females recruited through the general community and from a university. Seventeen participants (eight male; nine female) provided information on their body image and what factors they saw as positively and negatively impacting on their self evaluations. The importance of self esteem, mood, health and fitness, and recognition of the social ideal were identified as key themes. These themes were incorporated as psycho-social measures and Stroop word stimuli in subsequent phases of the research. Phase Two involved the selection and testing of stimuli to be used in the Emotional Stroop task. Six experimental categories of words were developed that reflected a broad range of health and body image concerns for males and females. These categories were high and low calorie food words, positive and negative appearance words, negative emotion words, and physical activity words. Phase Three addressed the central aim of the project by examining cognitive biases for body image information in empirically defined sub-groups. A National sample of males (N = 55) and females (N = 144), recruited from the general community and universities, completed an Emotional Stroop task, incidental memory test, and a collection of psycho-social questionnaires. Sub-groups of body image disturbance were sought using a cluster analysis, which identified three sub-groups in males (Normal, Dissatisfied, and Athletic) and four sub-groups in females (Normal, Health Conscious, Dissatisfied, and Symptomatic). No differences were noted between the groups in selective attention, although time taken to colour name the words was associated with some of the psycho-social variables. Memory biases found across the whole sample for negative emotion, low calorie food, and negative appearance words were interpreted as reflecting the current focus on health and stigma against being unattractive. Collectively these results have expanded our understanding of processing biases in the general community by demonstrating that the processing biases are found within non-clinical samples and that not all processing biases are associated with negative functionality

The consistency of crash involvement recall across time

Introduction Road safety researchers rely heavily on self-report data to explore the aetiology of crash risk. However, researchers consistently acknowledge a range of limitations associated with this methodological approach (e.g., self-report bias), which has been hypothesised to reduce the predictive efficacy of scales. Although well researched in other areas, one important factor often neglected in road safety studies is the fallibility of human memory. Given accurate recall is a key assumption in many studies, the validity and consistency of self-report data warrants investigation. The aim of the current study was to examine the consistency of self-report data of crash history and details of the most recent reported crash on two separate occasions. Materials & Method A repeated measures design was utilised to examine the self-reported crash involvement history of 214 general motorists over a two month period. Results A number of interesting discrepancies were noted in relation to number of lifetime crashes reported by the participants and the descriptions of their most recent crash across the two occasions. Of the 214 participants who reported having been involved in a crash, 35 (22.3%) reported a lower number of lifetime crashes as Time 2, than at Time 1. Of the 88 drivers who reported no change in number of lifetime crashes, 10 (11.4%) described a different most recent crash. Additionally, of the 34 reporting an increase in the number of lifetime crashes, 29 (85.3%) of these described the same crash on both occasions. Assessed as a whole, at least 47.1% of participants made a confirmed mistake at Time 1 or Time 2. Conclusions These results raise some doubt in regard to the accuracy of memory recall across time. Given that self-reported crash involvement is the predominant dependent variable used in the majority of road safety research, this issue warrants further investigation. Replication of the study with a larger sample size that includes multiple recall periods would enhance understanding into the significance of this issue for road safety methodology.

Validity of a self-report recall tool for estimating sedentary behaviour in adults

BACKGROUND Sedentary behavior is continuing to emerge as an important target for health promotion. The purpose of this study was to determine the validity of a self-report use of time recall tool, the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adults (MARCA) in estimating time spent sitting/lying, compared with a device-based measure. METHODS Fifty-eight participants (48% female, [mean±standard deviation] 28±7.4 years of age, 23.9±3.05 kg/m2) wore an activPAL device for 24-h and the following day completed the MARCA. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were used to analyse convergent validity of the adult MARCA compared with activPAL estimates of total sitting/lying time. Agreement was examined using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS According to activPAL estimates, participants spent 10.4 hr/day [standard deviation (SD)=2.06] sitting or lying down while awake. The correlation between MARCA and activPAL estimates of total sit/lie time was r=0.77 (95% confidence interval = 0.64-0.86; p<0.001). Bland-Altman analyses revealed a mean bias of +0.59 hr/day with moderately wide limits of agreement (-2.35 hours to +3.53 hr/day). CONCLUSIONS This study found a moderate to strong agreement between the adult MARCA and the activPAL, suggesting that the MARCA is an appropriate tool for the measurement of time spent sitting or lying down in an adult population.

Modelling Cued-Target Recall using Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation

This article presents and evaluates Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation using Cued-Target Recall Memory Modelling over multiple sources of Free Association data. Two components were evaluated: Whether Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation would provide a better framework than their classical psychological counterparts and how robust these models are across the different sources of Free Association data. In previous work, a formal model of cued-target recall did not exist and as such Target Activation was unable to be assessed directly. Further to that, the data source used was suspected of suffering from temporal and geographical bias. As a consequence, Target Activation was measured against cued-target recall data as an approximation of performance. Since then, a formal model of cued-target recall (PIER3) has been developed [10] with alternative sources of data also becoming available. This allowed us to directly model target activation in cued-target recall with human cued-target recall pairs and use multiply sources of Free Association Data. Featural Characteristics known to be important to Target Activation were measured for each of the data sources to identify any major differences that may explain variations in performance for each of the models. Each of the activation models were used in the PIER3 memory model for each of the data sources and was benchmarked against cued-target recall pairs provided by the University of South Florida (USF). Two methods where used to evaluate performance. The first involved measuring the divergence between the sets of results using the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence with the second utilizing a previous statistical analysis of the errors [9]. Of the three sources of data, two were sourced from human subjects being the USF Free Association Norms and the University of Leuven (UL) Free Association Networks. The third was sourced from a new method put forward by Galea and Bruza, 2015 in which pseudo Free Association Networks (Corpus Based Association Networks - CANs) are built using co-occurrence statistics on large text corpus. It was found that the Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation not only outperformed the classical psychological model but was more robust across a variety of data sources.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

A working memory bias for alcohol-related stimuli depends on drinking score

We tested 44 participants with respect to their working memory (WM) performance on alcohol-related versus neutral visual stimuli. Previously an alcohol attentional bias (AAB) had been reported using these stimuli, where the attention of frequent drinkers was automatically drawn toward alcohol-related items (e.g., beer bottle). The present study set out to provide evidence for an alcohol memory bias (AMB) that would persist over longer time-scales than the AAB. The WM task we used required memorizing 4 stimuli in their correct locations and a visual interference task was administered during a 4-sec delay interval. A subsequent probe required participants to indicate whether a stimulus was shown in the correct or incorrect location. For each participant we calculated a drinking score based on 3 items derived from the Alcohol Use Questionnaire, and we observed that higher scorers better remembered alcohol-related images compared with lower scorers, particularly when these were presented in their correct locations upon recall. This provides first evidence for an AMB. It is important to highlight that this effect persisted over a 4-sec delay period including a visual interference task that erased iconic memories and diverted attention away from the encoded items, thus the AMB cannot be reduced to the previously reported AAB. Our finding calls for further investigation of alcohol-related cognitive biases in WM, and we propose a preliminary model that may guide future research. © 2012 American Psychological Association.

Recall, verbatim memory and remembered narratives

Memory is central to investigative interviews with witnesses and suspects, yet decades of research have shown that remembering is subject to constructive and reconstructive processes that can adversely impact the reliability of accounts that are elicited at interview. In this chapter we first outline research concerning our memory for events (‘episodic memory’) before moving on to discuss the ways in which our attempts to validate and communicate those memories can bias what is eventually reported. We then focus on some of the implications this can have for investigative interviews, specifically the problem of ‘skill fade’ in interviewing, the impact of implicit beliefs about memory and issues surrounding the reliability of recollections of direct speech. We conclude that appropriately structuring the retrieval context is the key to achieving best memory evidence.

Confirmation bias in witness interviewing: Can interviewers ignore their preconceptions?

Basic research on expectancy effects suggests that investigative interviewers with pre-conceived notions about a crime may negatively influence the interview process in meaningful ways, yet many interviewing protocols recommend that interviewers review all available information prior to conducting their interviews. Previous research suggests that interviewers with no pre-interview knowledge elicit more detailed and accurate accounts than their informed counterparts (Cantlon, et al., 1996; Rivard et al., under review). The current study investigated whether (a) the benefit of blind versus informed interviewing is moderated by cautionary interviewer instructions to avoid suggestive questions and (b) whether any possible effects of pre-interview information extend beyond the immediate context of the forensic interview. ^ Paired participants (N = 584) were assigned randomly either to the role of interviewer or witness. Witnesses viewed a mock crime video and were interviewed one week later by an interviewer who received either correct, incorrect, or no information about the crime event. Half of the interviewers were assigned randomly to receive additional instructions to avoid suggestive questions. All participants returned 1 week after the interview to recall the crime video (for the witness) or the information recalled by the witness during the interview (for the interviewer). All interviews and delayed recall measures were scored for the quantity and accuracy of information reported. ^ Results replicate earlier findings that blind interviewers elicit more information from witnesses, without a decrease in accuracy rate. However instructions to avoid suggestive questions did not moderate the effect of blind versus informed interviewing on witness recall during the interview. Results further demonstrate that the effects of blind versus non-blind interviewing may extend beyond the immediate context of the interview to a later recall attempt. With instructions to avoid suggestive questions, witnesses of blind interviewers were more accurate than witnesses of incorrectly informed interviewers when recalling the event 1 week later. In addition, blind interviewers had more accurate memories for the witnesses' account of the event during the interview compared to non-blind interviewers.^

Memory Bias for Anxiety Prior to Academic Achievement Situations: Influences of Time, Mood, Personality and Post-Event-Processing

The current thesis examines memory bias for state anxiety prior to academic achievement situations like writing an exam and giving a speech. The thesis relies on the reconstruction principle, which assumes that memories for past emotions are reconstructed rather than stored permanently and accurately. This makes them prone to memory bias, which is af-fected by several influencing factors. A major aim is to include four important influencing factors simultaneously. Early research on mood and emotional autobiographical memory found evidence for the existence of a propositional associative network (Bower, 1981; Col-lins & Loftus, 1975), leading to mood congruent recall. But empirical findings gave also strong evidence for the existence of mood incongruent recall for one’s own emotions, which was for example linked to mood regulation via mood repair (e.g. Clark & Isen, 1982), which seems to be associated to the personality traits extraversion and neuroticism (Lischetzke & Eid, 2006; Ng & Diener, 2009). Moreover, neuroticism and trait anxiety are related to rumination, which is seen as negative post-event-processing (e.g. Wells & Clark, 1997). Overall, the elapsed time since the emotional event happened should have an impact on recall of emotions. Following the affect infusion model by Robinson and Clore (2002a), the influence of personality on memory bias should increase over time. Therefore, three longitudinal studies were realized, using naturally occurring as well as laboratory settings. The used paradigm was equivalent in all studies. Subjects were asked about their actual state anxiety prior to an academic achievement situation. Directly after the situation, cur-rent mood and recall of former anxiety were assessed. The same procedure was repeated a few weeks later. Personality traits and post-event-processing were also assessed. The results suggest a need to have a differentiated view on predicting memory bias. Study 1 (N = 131) as well as study 3 (N = 53) found evidence for mood incongruent memory in the sense of mood repair and downward regulation as a function of personality. Rumination was found to cause stable overestimation of pre-event anxiety in study 2 (N = 141) as well as in study 3. Although the relevance of the influencing factors changed over time, an increasing relevance of personality could not consistently be observed. The tremendously different effects of the laboratory study 2 indicated that such settings are not appropriate to study current issues. Theoretical and psychotherapeutically relevant conclusions are drawn and several limitations are discussed.