Aplicação e avaliação de desempenho de um sistema de otimização em tempo real em uma unidade de produção de propeno.

Com o objetivo de aumentar o lucro de plantas químicas, a Otimização em Tempo Real (RTO) é uma ferramenta que busca determinar as condições ótimas operacionais do processo em estado estacionário, respeitando as restrições operacionais estabelecidas. Neste trabalho foi realizada a implementação prática de um ciclo RTO em um processo de destilação por recompressão de vapor (VRD), propileno-propano, da Refinaria de Paulínia (Petrobras S.A.), a partir de dados históricos da planta. Foram consideradas as principais etapas de um ciclo clássico de RTO: identificação de estado estacionário, reconciliação de dados, estimação de parâmetros e otimização econômica. Essa unidade foi modelada, simulada e otimizada em EMSO (Environment for Modeling, Simulation and Optimization), um simulador de processos orientado a equações desenvolvido no Brasil. Foram analisados e comparados dois métodos de identificação de estado estacionário, um baseado no teste estatístico F e outro baseado em wavelets. Ambos os métodos tiveram resultados semelhantes e mostraram-se capazes de identificar os estados estacionários de forma satisfatória, embora seja necessário o ajuste de parâmetros na sua implementação. Foram identificados alguns pontos estacionários para serem submetidos ao ciclo RTO e foi possível verificar a importância de partir de um estado estacionário para a continuidade do ciclo, já que essa é uma premissa do método. A partir dos pontos analisados, os resultados deste estudo mostram que o RTO é capaz de aumentar o ganho econômico entre 2,5-24%, dependendo das condições iniciais consideradas, o que pode representar ganhos de até 18 milhões de dólares por ano. Além disso, para essa unidade, verificou-se que o compressor é um equipamento limitante no aumento de ganho econômico do processo.

Real time optimization in chemical process: evaluation of strategies, improvements and industrial application.

The increasing economic competition drives the industry to implement tools that improve their processes efficiencies. The process automation is one of these tools, and the Real Time Optimization (RTO) is an automation methodology that considers economic aspects to update the process control in accordance with market prices and disturbances. Basically, RTO uses a steady-state phenomenological model to predict the process behavior, and then, optimizes an economic objective function subject to this model. Although largely implemented in industry, there is not a general agreement about the benefits of implementing RTO due to some limitations discussed in the present work: structural plant/model mismatch, identifiability issues and low frequency of set points update. Some alternative RTO approaches have been proposed in literature to handle the problem of structural plant/model mismatch. However, there is not a sensible comparison evaluating the scope and limitations of these RTO approaches under different aspects. For this reason, the classical two-step method is compared to more recently derivative-based methods (Modifier Adaptation, Integrated System Optimization and Parameter estimation, and Sufficient Conditions of Feasibility and Optimality) using a Monte Carlo methodology. The results of this comparison show that the classical RTO method is consistent, providing a model flexible enough to represent the process topology, a parameter estimation method appropriate to handle measurement noise characteristics and a method to improve the sample information quality. At each iteration, the RTO methodology updates some key parameter of the model, where it is possible to observe identifiability issues caused by lack of measurements and measurement noise, resulting in bad prediction ability. Therefore, four different parameter estimation approaches (Rotational Discrimination, Automatic Selection and Parameter estimation, Reparametrization via Differential Geometry and classical nonlinear Least Square) are evaluated with respect to their prediction accuracy, robustness and speed. The results show that the Rotational Discrimination method is the most suitable to be implemented in a RTO framework, since it requires less a priori information, it is simple to be implemented and avoid the overfitting caused by the Least Square method. The third RTO drawback discussed in the present thesis is the low frequency of set points update, this problem increases the period in which the process operates at suboptimum conditions. An alternative to handle this problem is proposed in this thesis, by integrating the classic RTO and Self-Optimizing control (SOC) using a new Model Predictive Control strategy. The new approach demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the problem of low frequency of set points updates, improving the economic performance. Finally, the practical aspects of the RTO implementation are carried out in an industrial case study, a Vapor Recompression Distillation (VRD) process located in Paulínea refinery from Petrobras. The conclusions of this study suggest that the model parameters are successfully estimated by the Rotational Discrimination method; the RTO is able to improve the process profit in about 3%, equivalent to 2 million dollars per year; and the integration of SOC and RTO may be an interesting control alternative for the VRD process.

New insights on measuring bank branches efficiency through DEA:transactional, operational, and profit assessments

This thesis presents a number of methodological developments that were raised by a real life application to measuring the efficiency of bank branches. The advent of internet banking and phone banking is changing the role of bank branches from a predominantly transaction-based one to a sales-oriented role. This fact requires the development of new forms of assessing and comparing branches of a bank. In addition, performance assessment models must also take into account the fact that bank branches are service and for-profit organisations to which providing adequate service quality as well as being profitable are crucial objectives. This study analyses bank branches performance in their new roles in three different areas: their effectiveness in fostering the use of new transaction channels such as the internet and the telephone (transactional efficiency); their effectiveness in increasing sales and their customer base (operational efficiency); and their effectiveness in generating profits without compromising the quality of service (profit efficiency). The chosen methodology for the overall analysis is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The application attempted here required some adaptations to existing DEA models and indeed some new models so that some specialities of our data could be handled. These concern the development of models that can account for negative data, the development of models to measure profit efficiency, and the development of models that yield production units with targets that are nearer to their observed levels than targets yielded by traditional DEA models. The application of the developed models to a sample of Portuguese bank branches allowed their classification according to the three performance dimensions (transactional, operational and profit efficiency). It also provided useful insights to bank managers regarding how bank branches compare between themselves in terms of their performance, and how, in general, the three performance dimensions are connected between themselves.

An overall profit Malmquist productivity index with fuzzy and interval data

Although crisp data are fundamentally indispensable for determining the profit Malmquist productivity index (MPI), the observed values in real-world problems are often imprecise or vague. These imprecise or vague data can be suitably characterized with fuzzy and interval methods. In this paper, we reformulate the conventional profit MPI problem as an imprecise data envelopment analysis (DEA) problem, and propose two novel methods for measuring the overall profit MPI when the inputs, outputs, and price vectors are fuzzy or vary in intervals. We develop a fuzzy version of the conventional MPI model by using a ranking method, and solve the model with a commercial off-the-shelf DEA software package. In addition, we define an interval for the overall profit MPI of each decision-making unit (DMU) and divide the DMUs into six groups according to the intervals obtained for their overall profit efficiency and MPIs. We also present two numerical examples to demonstrate the applicability of the two proposed models and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

On-Line Real-Time Service-Oriented Task Scheduling Using TUF

We present our approach to real-time service-oriented scheduling problems with the objective of maximizing the total system utility. Different from the traditional utility accrual scheduling problems that each task is associated with only a single time utility function (TUF), we associate two different TUFs—a profit TUF and a penalty TUF—with each task, to model the real-time services that not only need to reward the early completions but also need to penalize the abortions or deadline misses. The scheduling heuristics we proposed in this paper judiciously accept, schedule, and abort real-time services when necessary to maximize the accrued utility. Our extensive experimental results show that our proposed algorithms can significantly outperform the traditional scheduling algorithms such as the Earliest Deadline First (EDF), the traditional utility accrual (UA) scheduling algorithms, and an earlier scheduling approach based on a similar model.

Making it real of sustaining a fantasy? Personal budgets for older people

The restructuring of English social care services in the last three decades, as services are provided through a shifting collage of state, for-profit and non-profit organisations, exemplifies many of the themes of governance (Bevir, 2013). As well as institutional changes, there have been a new set of elite narratives about citizen behaviours and contributions, undergirded by modernist social science insights into the wellbeing benefits of ‘self-management’ (Mol, 2008). In this article, we particularly focus on the ways in which a narrative of personalisation has been deployed in older people’s social care services. Personalisation is based on an espoused aspiration of empowerment and autonomy through universal implementation to all users of social care (encapsulated in the Making it Real campaign [Think Local, Act Personal (TLAP), no date)], which leaves unproblematised the ever increasing residualisation of older adult social care and the abjection of the frail (Higgs and Gilleard, 2015). In this narrative of universal personalisation, older people are paradoxically positioned as ‘the unexceptional exception’; ‘unexceptional’ in the sense that, as the majority user group, they are rhetorically included in this promised transformation of adult social care; but ‘the exception’ in the sense that frail older adults are persistently placed beyond its reach. It is this paradoxical positioning of older adult social care users as the unexceptional exception and its ideological function that we seek to explain in this article.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Fractalkine (cx3cl1) Is Involved In The Early Activation Of Hypothalamic Inflammation In Experimental Obesity.

Hypothalamic inflammation is a common feature of experimental obesity. Dietary fats are important triggers of this process, inducing the activation of toll-like receptor-4 (TLR4) signaling and endoplasmic reticulum stress. Microglia cells, which are the cellular components of the innate immune system in the brain, are expected to play a role in the early activation of diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation. Here, we use bone marrow transplants to generate mice chimeras that express a functional TLR4 in the entire body except in bone marrow-derived cells or only in bone marrow-derived cells. We show that a functional TLR4 in bone marrow-derived cells is required for the complete expression of the diet-induced obese phenotype and for the perpetuation of inflammation in the hypothalamus. In an obesity-prone mouse strain, the chemokine CX3CL1 (fractalkine) is rapidly induced in the neurons of the hypothalamus after the introduction of a high-fat diet. The inhibition of hypothalamic fractalkine reduces diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation and the recruitment of bone marrow-derived monocytic cells to the hypothalamus; in addition, this inhibition reduces obesity and protects against diet-induced glucose intolerance. Thus, fractalkine is an important player in the early induction of diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation, and its inhibition impairs the induction of the obese and glucose intolerance phenotypes.

A Microleakage Study Of Gutta-percha/ah Plus And Resilon/real Self-etch Systems After Different Irrigation Protocols.

The development and maintenance of the sealing of the root canal system is the key to the success of root canal treatment. The resin-based adhesive material has the potential to reduce the microleakage of the root canal because of its adhesive properties and penetration into dentinal walls. Moreover, the irrigation protocols may have an influence on the adhesiveness of resin-based sealers to root dentin. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of different irrigant protocols on coronal bacterial microleakage of gutta-percha/AH Plus and Resilon/Real Seal Self-etch systems. One hundred ninety pre-molars were used. The teeth were divided into 18 experimental groups according to the irrigation protocols and filling materials used. The protocols used were: distilled water; sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl)+eDTA; NaOCl+H3PO4; NaOCl+eDTA+chlorhexidine (CHX); NaOCl+H3PO4+CHX; CHX+eDTA; CHX+ H3PO4; CHX+eDTA+CHX and CHX+H3PO4+CHX. Gutta-percha/AH Plus or Resilon/Real Seal Se were used as root-filling materials. The coronal microleakage was evaluated for 90 days against Enterococcus faecalis. Data were statistically analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival test, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests. No significant difference was verified in the groups using chlorhexidine or sodium hypochlorite during the chemo-mechanical preparation followed by eDTA or phosphoric acid for smear layer removal. The same results were found for filling materials. However, the statistical analyses revealed that a final flush with 2% chlorhexidine reduced significantly the coronal microleakage. A final flush with 2% chlorhexidine after smear layer removal reduces coronal microleakage of teeth filled with gutta-percha/AH Plus or Resilon/Real Seal SE.

The Real-life Experience With Cardiovascular Complications In The First Dose Of Fingolimod For Multiple Sclerosis.

Fingolimod is a new and efficient treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS). The drug administration requires special attention to the first dose, since cardiovascular adverse events can be observed during the initial six hours of fingolimod ingestion. The present study consisted of a review of cardiovascular data on 180 patients with MS receiving the first dose of fingolimod. The rate of bradycardia in these patients was higher than that observed in clinical trials with very strict inclusion criteria for patients. There were less than 10% of cases requiring special attention, but no fatal cases. All but one patient continued the treatment after this initial dose. This is the first report on real-life administration of fingolimod to Brazilian patients with MS, and one of the few studies with these characteristics in the world.

Direct And Non-destructive Proof Of Authenticity For The 2nd Generation Of Brazilian Real Banknotes Via Easy Ambient Sonic Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry.

Using a desorption/ionization technique, easy ambient sonic-spray ionization coupled to mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), documents related to the 2nd generation of Brazilian Real currency (R$) were screened in the positive ion mode for authenticity based on chemical profiles obtained directly from the banknote surface. Characteristic profiles were observed for authentic, seized suspect counterfeit and counterfeited homemade banknotes from inkjet and laserjet printers. The chemicals in the authentic banknotes' surface were detected via a few minor sets of ions, namely from the plasticizers bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DBP), most likely related to the official offset printing process, and other common quaternary ammonium cations, presenting a similar chemical profile to 1st-generation R$. The seized suspect counterfeit banknotes, however, displayed abundant diagnostic ions in the m/z 400-800 range due to the presence of oligomers. High-accuracy FT-ICR MS analysis enabled molecular formula assignment for each ion. The ions were separated by 44 m/z, which enabled their characterization as Surfynol® 4XX (S4XX, XX=40, 65, and 85), wherein increasing XX values indicate increasing amounts of ethoxylation on a backbone of 2,4,7,9-tetramethyl-5-decyne-4,7-diol (Surfynol® 104). Sodiated triethylene glycol monobutyl ether (TBG) of m/z 229 (C10H22O4Na) was also identified in the seized counterfeit banknotes via EASI(+) FT-ICR MS. Surfynol® and TBG are constituents of inks used for inkjet printing.

Characterization Of Anfo Explosive By High Accuracy Esi(±)-ftms With Forensic Identification On Real Samples By Easi(-)-ms.

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) is an explosive used in many civil applications. In Brazil, ANFO has unfortunately also been used in criminal attacks, mainly in automated teller machine (ATM) explosions. In this paper, we describe a detailed characterization of the ANFO composition and its two main constituents (diesel and a nitrate explosive) using high resolution and accuracy mass spectrometry performed on an FT-ICR-mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI(±)-FTMS) in both the positive and negative ion modes. Via ESI(-)-MS, an ion marker for ANFO was characterized. Using a direct and simple ambient desorption/ionization technique, i.e., easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), in a simpler, lower accuracy but robust single quadrupole mass spectrometer, the ANFO ion marker was directly detected from the surface of banknotes collected from ATM explosion theft.

Equipamento microprocessado para geração de sinal de correção diferencial, em tempo real, para GPS

This work presents the development of low cost microprocessor-based equipment for generation of differential GPS correction signal, in real time, and configuration and supervision of the GPS base. The developed equipment contains a dedicated microcontroller connected to the GPS receiver, alphanumeric display and multifunction keyboard for configuration and operation of the system and communication interfaces. The electronic circuit has the function of receiving the information from GPS base; interpret them, converting the sentence in the RTCM SC-104 protocol. The microcontroller software makes the conversion of the signal received by the GPS base from the specific format to RTCM SC-104 protocol. The processing main board has two serials RS-232C standard interfaces. One of them is used for configuration and receiving the information generated by the GPS base. The other operates as output, sending the differential correction signal for the transmission system. The development of microprocessor-based equipment showed that it is possible the construction of a low cost private station for real time generation of differential GPS correction signal.

Determinação em tempo real da magnitude de danos físicos por impacto em linhas de beneficiamento e em condições de laboratório e seus efeitos na qualidade de tomate

Tomatoes are one of the most important vegetable crops grown in Brazil and are among the crops that have one of the highest post-harvest losses indexes in the country. The present work aimed at evaluating impact damage observed in packing lines of fresh tomatoes as well as to determine, under laboratory conditions, quality alterations of tomato fruits submitted to impact damage in different surface types. Critical points evaluation was accomplished using an instrumented sphere. Critical transference points found showed variations in acceleration levels from 30 to 129 G (m s-2). Tests carried out under laboratory conditions showed that padded surfaces reduced up to 31% impact damage. Incidence of severe internal physical damage was evaluated by a subjective scale and increased by 79% on hard surfaces for the highest fall drop. On the other hand, it was observed an effective reduction in physical damage on fruits when padded surfaces were used. When a 10-cm drop was performed, the maximum reduction measured was 10% for hard surfaces and 5% for previously padded surfaces. For quality parameters, it was observed for high drops on hard surfaces, highest values for weight loss, total acidity, lower values for vitamin C and Soluble Solids.