Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

Studies of Liquid-liquid Separation in Fibre Coalescer

This thesis focuses on fibre coalescers whose efficiency is based on the surface properties/characteristics. They have the ability to preferentially wet or interact with one or more of the fluids to be separated. Thus, the interfacial phenomena governing the separation efficiency of the coalescers is investigated depending on physical factors such as flowrates, phase ratios and coalescer packing density. Design of process equipment to produce and separate of the emulsions was carried out.The experimentation was carried out to test the separation efficiency of the coalescing medias, namely fibreglass, polyester I and polyester II. The performances of the coalescing medias were assessed via droplet size information. In conclusion, the objectives (design of process equipment and experimentation) were achieved. Fibre glass was the best coalescing media, next was polyester I and then finally polyester II. Droplets sizes increased with decreased flowrates and increased packing density of the coalescer. Phase ratio had effect on the droplet sizes of the feed but had no effect on the coalescence of droplets of the feed.

Determination of myocardial infarction size in rats by echocardiography and tetrazolium staining: correlation, agreements, and simplifications

Triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining and echocardiography (ECHO) are methods used to determine experimental myocardial infarction (MI) size, whose practical applicability should be expanded. Our objectives were to analyze the accuracy of ECHO in determining infarction size in rats during the first days following coronary occlusion and to test whether a simplified single measurement by TTC correctly indicates MI size, as determined by the average value for multiple slices. Infarction was induced in female Wistar rats by coronary artery occlusion and MI size analysis was performed after the acute (7th day) and chronic periods (after 4 weeks) by ECHO matched with TTC. ECHO and TTC showed similar values of MI size (% of left ventricle perimeter) in acute (ECHO: 33 ± 11, TTC: 35 ± 14) and chronic (ECHO: 38 ± 14, TTC: 39 ± 13 periods), and also presented an excellent correlation (r = 0.92, P < 0.001). Although measurements from different heart planes showed discrepancies, a single measurement acquired from the mid-ventricular level by TTC was a good estimate of MI size calculated by the average of multiple planes, with minimal disagreement (Bland-Altman test with mean ratio bias of 0.99 ± 0.07) and close to an ideal correlation (r = 0.99, P < 0.001). In the present study, ECHO was confirmed as a useful method for the determination of MI size even in the acute phase. Also, the single measure of a mid-ventricular section proposed as a simplification of the TTC method is a satisfactory prediction of average MI extension.

The effects of derivative use on equity fund performance

Investing in mutual funds has become more popular than ever and the amount of money invested in mutual funds registered in Finland has hit its all-time high. Mutual funds provide a relatively low-cost method for private investors to invest in stock market and achieve diversified portfolios. In finance there is always a tradeoff between risk and return, where higher expected returns can usually be achieved only by taking higher risks. Diversifying the portfolio gets rid some of the risk but systematic risk cannot be diversified away. These risks can be managed by hedging the investments with derivatives. The use of derivatives should improve the performance of the portfolios using them compared to the funds that don’t. However, previous studies have shown that the risk exposure and return performance of derivative users does not considerably differ from nonusers. The purpose of this study is to examine how the use of derivatives affects the performance of equity funds. The funds studied were 155 equity funds registered in Finland in 2013. Empirical research was done by studying the derivative use of the funds during a 6-year period between 2008–2013. The performance of the funds was studied quantitatively by using several different performance measures used in mutual fund industry; Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen's alpha, Sortino Ratio, M2 and Omega Ratio. The effect of derivative use on funds' performance was studied by using a dummy variable and comparing performance measures of derivative-users and nonusers. The differences in performance measures between the two groups were analyzed with statistical tests. The hypothesis was that funds' derivative use should improve their performance relative to the funds that don't use them. The results of this study are in line with previous studies that state that the use of derivatives does not improve mutual funds' performance. When performance was measured with Jensen's alpha, funds that did not use derivatives performed better than the ones that used them. When measured with other performance measures, the results didn’t differ between two groups.

Structural, Magnetic and Thermal Studies of Ce1-xEuxCrO3 Nano-Powders

A new series of nano-sized Ce1-xEuxCrO3 (x = 0.0 to 1.0) with an average particle size of 50 - 80 nm were synthesized using a solution combustion method. Nano-powders Ce1-xEuxCrO3 with the canted antiferromagnetic property exhibited interesting magnetic behaviours including the reversal magnetization and the exchange bias effect. The effect of europium doping as the ion with the smaller radius size and different electron con figuration on structural, magnetic and thermal properties of Ce1-xEuxCrO3 were investigated using various experimental techniques, i.e. DC/AC magnetic susceptibility, heat capacity, thermal expansion, Raman scattering, X-ray photoemission spectroscopy, transmission/scanning electron microscopy, X-ray powder diffraction and neutron scattering. An exchange bias effect, magnetization irreversibility and AC susceptibility dispersion in these samples confirmed the existence of the spin disorder magnetic phase in Ce1-xEuxCrO3 compounds. The exchange bias phenomenon, which is assigned to the exchange coupling between glassy-like shell and canted antiferromagnetic core, showed the opposite sign in CeCrO3 and EuCrO3 at low temperatures, suggesting different exchange interactions at the interfaces in these compounds. The energy level excitation of samples were examined by an inelastic neutron scattering which was in good agreement with the heat capacity data. Neutron scattering analysis of EuCrO3 was challenging due to the large neutron absorption cross-section of europium. All diffraction patterns of Ce1-xEuxCrO3 showed the magnetic peak attributed to the antiferromagnetic Cr3+ spins while none of the diffraction patterns could detect the magnetic ordering of the rare-earth ions in these samples.

Punching Shear Behavior of UHPC Flat Slabs

At the Institute of Structural Engineering of the Faculty of Civil Engineering, Kassel University, series tests of slab-column connection were carried out, subjected to concentrated punching load. The effects of steel fiber content, concrete compressive strength, tension reinforcement ratio, size effect, and yield stress of tension reinforcement were studied by testing a total of six UHPC slabs and one normal strength concrete slab. Based on experimental results; all the tested slabs failed in punching shear as a type of failure, except the UHPC slab without steel fiber which failed due to splitting of concrete cover. The post ultimate load-deformation behavior of UHPC slabs subjected to punching load shows harmonic behavior of three stages; first, drop of load-deflection curve after reaching maximum load, second, resistance of both steel fibers and tension reinforcement, and third, pure tension reinforcement resistance. The first shear crack of UHPC slabs starts to open at a load higher than that of normal strength concrete slabs. Typically, the diameter of the punching cone for UHPC slabs on the tension surface is larger than that of NSC slabs and the location of critical shear crack is far away from the face of the column. The angle of punching cone for NSC slabs is larger than that of UHPC slabs. For UHPC slabs, the critical perimeter is proposed and located at 2.5d from the face of the column. The final shape of the punching cone is completed after the tension reinforcement starts to yield and the column stub starts to penetrate through the slab. A numerical model using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for UHPC slabs is presented. Also some variables effect on punching shear is demonstrated by a parametric study. A design equation for UHPC slabs under punching load is presented and shown to be applicable for a wide range of parametric variations; in the ranges between 40 mm to 300 mm in slab thickness, 0.1 % to 2.9 % in tension reinforcement ratio, 150 MPa to 250 MPa in compressive strength of concrete and 0.1 % to 2 % steel fiber content. The proposed design equation of UHPC slabs is modified to include HSC and NSC slabs without steel fiber, and it is checked with the test results from earlier researches.

A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

Advancements in the estimation of ice particle fall speeds using laboratory and field measurements

Accurate estimates for the fall speed of natural hydrometeors are vital if their evolution in clouds is to be understood quantitatively. In this study, laboratory measurements of the terminal velocity vt for a variety of ice particle models settling in viscous fluids, along with wind-tunnel and field measurements of ice particles settling in air, have been analyzed and compared to common methods of computing vt from the literature. It is observed that while these methods work well for a number of particle types, they fail for particles with open geometries, specifically those particles for which the area ratio Ar is small (Ar is defined as the area of the particle projected normal to the flow divided by the area of a circumscribing disc). In particular, the fall speeds of stellar and dendritic crystals, needles, open bullet rosettes, and low-density aggregates are all overestimated. These particle types are important in many cloud types: aggregates in particular often dominate snow precipitation at the ground and vertically pointing Doppler radar measurements. Based on the laboratory data, a simple modification to previous computational methods is proposed, based on the area ratio. This new method collapses the available drag data onto an approximately universal curve, and the resulting errors in the computed fall speeds relative to the tank data are less than 25% in all cases. Comparison with the (much more scattered) measurements of ice particles falling in air show strong support for this new method, with the area ratio bias apparently eliminated.

Are visual threats prioritized without awareness? A critical review and meta analysis involving 3 behavioral paradigms and 2696 observers

Given capacity limits, only a subset of stimuli 1 give rise to a conscious percept. Neurocognitive models suggest that humans have evolved mechanisms that operate without awareness and prioritize threatening stimuli over neutral stimuli in subsequent perception. In this meta analysis, we review evidence for this ‘standard hypothesis’ emanating from three widely used, but rather different experimental paradigms that have been used to manipulate awareness. We found a small pooled threat-bias effect in the masked visual probe paradigm, a medium effect in the binocular rivalry paradigm and highly inconsistent effects in the breaking continuous flash suppression paradigm. Substantial heterogeneity was explained by the stimulus type: the only threat stimuli that were robustly prioritized across all three paradigms were fearful faces. Meta regression revealed that anxiety may modulate threat biases, but only under specific presentation conditions. We also found that insufficiently rigorous awareness measures, inadequate control of response biases and low level confounds may undermine claims of genuine unconscious threat processing. Considering the data together, we suggest that uncritical acceptance of the standard hypothesis is premature: current behavioral evidence for threat-sensitive visual processing that operates without awareness is weak.

Magnetic hysteresis loop shift in NiFe(2)O(4) nanocrystalline powder with large grain boundary fraction

Magnetic properties of nanocrystalline NiFe(2)O(4) spinel mechanically processed for 350 h have been studied using temperature dependent from both zero-field and in-field (57)Fe Mossbauer spectrometry and magnetization measurements. The hyperfine structure allows us to distinguish two main magnetic contributions: one attributed to the crystalline grain core, which has magnetic properties similar to the NiFe(2)O(4) spinel-like structure (n-NiFe(2)O(4)) and the other one due to the disordered grain boundary region, which presents topological and chemical disorder features(d-NiFe(2)O(4)). Mossbauer spectrometry determines a large fraction for the d-NiFe(2)O(4) region(62% of total area) and also suggests a speromagnet-like structure for it. Under applied magnetic field, the n-NiFe(2)O(4) spins are canted with angle dependent on the applied field magnitude. Mossbauer data also show that even under 120 kOe no magnetic saturation is observed for the two magnetic phases. In addition, the hysteresis loops, recorded for scan field of 50 kOe, are shifted in both field and magnetization axes, for temperatures below about 50 K. The hysteresis loop shifts may be due to two main contributions: the exchange bias field at the d-NiFe(2)O(4)/n-NiFe(2)O(4) interfaces and the minor loop effect caused by a high magnetic anisotropy of the d-NiFe(2)O(4) phase. It has also been shown that the spin configuration of the spin-glass like phase is modified by the consecutive field cycles, consequently the n-NiFe(2)O(4)/d-NiFe(2)O(4) magnetic interaction is also affected in this process. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design of a simple detection cell with extended optical path length for capillary electrophoresis: Application to multiresidue pesticide analysis

Absorbance detection in capillary electrophoresis (CE), offers an excellent mass sensitivity, but poor concentration detection limits owing to very small injection volumes (normally I to 10 nL). This aspect can be a limiting factor in the applicability of CE/UV to detect species at trace levels, particularly pesticide residues. In the present work, the optical path length of an on-column detection cell was increased through a proper connection of the column (75 mu m i.d.) to a capillary detection cell of 180 mu m optical path length in order to improve detectability. It is shown that the cell with an extended optical path length results in a significant gain in terms of signal to noise ratio. The effect of the increase in the optical path length has been evaluated for six pesticides, namely, carbendazim, thiabendazole, imazalil, procymidone triadimefon, and prochloraz. The resulting optical enhancement of the detection cell provided detection limits of ca. 0.3 mu g/mL for the studied compounds, thus enabling the residue analysis by CE/UV.

Recombinant luteinizing hormone supplementation to recombinant follicle-stimulation hormone during induced ovarian stimulation in the GnRH-agonist protocol: A meta-analysis

Purpose: to compare the efficacy of recombinant LH supplementation for controlled ovarian stimulation in recombinant FSH and GnRH-agonist protocol.Methods: Search strategies included on-line surveys of databases. The fixed effects model was used for odds ratio and effect size (weighted mean difference). Four trials fulfilled the inclusion criteria.Results: a fewer days of stimulation (p < 0.0001), a fewer total amount of r-FSH administered (p < 0.0001) and a higher serum estradiol levels on the day of hCG administration (p < 0.0001) were observed for the r-LH supplementation protocol. However, differences were not observed in number of oocyte retrieved, number of mature oocytes, clinical pregnancy per oocyte retrieval, implantation and miscarriage rates.Conclusions: more randomized controlled trials are necessary before evidence-based recommendations regarding exogenous LH supplementation in ovarian stimulation protocols with FSH and GnRH-agonist for assisted reproduction treatment can be provided.

Contribuição do uso de medicamentos para a admissão hospitalar

According to the Word Health Organization, adverse drug reactions (ADR) are any harmful and non intentional answer which occurred in doses normally used in human beings. The ADR can be responsible for 2.4% to 11.5% of hospital admissions. Therefore, this study aimed at knowing the admitted patient's demographic profile due to possible ADR, identifying the most frequent drugs and complaints, and evaluating the incidence of hospital admission related to drug use. Patients who were 18 years old or more and were admitted during a period of one month to a medical clinical of a general hospital were interviewed for one month about drug use before being admitted, as well as regarding to the complaint which led them to hospital. These information were analyzed according to official data, like MICROMEDEX® and WHO criteria as well. It was observed that the admission due to drug use occurred in most part of the cases in elderly [47.5% (66/139)] and women [62% (87/139)]. The most frequent drugs used were: omeprazole (16), analgesics (31), antihypertensive (31), simvastatin (7) and formoterol fumarate (6), and the symptoms were normally associated to the digestive (20.5%), circulatory (20.2%), respiratory (18.2%) and central nervous systems (13.9%). It was estimated that 15.5% (139/897) of the hospital admission occurred possibly due to the drug use. The data found by present study suggests some strategies in order to prevent ADR in the context of primary health care services, such as monitoring drug therapy, manly for patients with chronic diseases, elderly and polimedicated people; and pharmaceutical care including dispensation and purchasing of the drugs, a lot of them dispensed over the counter (OTC).

Estudo do efeito dos transformadores de relação de transformação variável sobre a capacidade de sincronização intermáquinas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Deposição e caracterização de filmes de óxido de cobalto por sputtering reativo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)