Ligand-modulated Parallel Mechanical Unfolding Pathways of Maltose-binding Proteins

Protein folding and unfolding are complex phenomena, and it is accepted that multidomain proteins generally follow multiple pathways. Maltose-binding protein (MBP) is a large (a two-domain, 370-amino acid residue) bacterial periplasmic protein involved in maltose uptake. Despite the large size, it has been shown to exhibit an apparent two-state equilibrium unfolding in bulk experiments. Single-molecule studies can uncover rare events that are masked by averaging in bulk studies. Here, we use single-molecule force spectroscopy to study the mechanical unfolding pathways of MBP and its precursor protein (preMBP) in the presence and absence of ligands. Our results show that MBP exhibits kinetic partitioning on mechanical stretching and unfolds via two parallel pathways: one of them involves a mechanically stable intermediate (path I) whereas the other is devoid of it (path II). The apoMBP unfolds via path I in 62% of the mechanical unfolding events, and the remaining 38% follow path II. In the case of maltose-bound MBP, the protein unfolds via the intermediate in 79% of the cases, the remaining 21% via path II. Similarly, on binding to maltotriose, a ligand whose binding strength with the polyprotein is similar to that of maltose, the occurrence of the intermediate is comparable (82% via path I) with that of maltose. The precursor protein preMBP also shows a similar behavior upon mechanical unfolding. The percentages of molecules unfolding via path I are 53% in the apo form and 68% and 72% upon binding to maltose and maltotriose, respectively, for preMBP. These observations demonstrate that ligand binding can modulate the mechanical unfolding pathways of proteins by a kinetic partitioning mechanism. This could be a general mechanism in the unfolding of other large two-domain ligand-binding proteins of the bacterial periplasmic space.

Community sense and response systems

The proliferation of smartphones and other internet-enabled, sensor-equipped consumer devices enables us to sense and act upon the physical environment in unprecedented ways. This thesis considers Community Sense-and-Response (CSR) systems, a new class of web application for acting on sensory data gathered from participants' personal smart devices. The thesis describes how rare events can be reliably detected using a decentralized anomaly detection architecture that performs client-side anomaly detection and server-side event detection. After analyzing this decentralized anomaly detection approach, the thesis describes how weak but spatially structured events can be detected, despite significant noise, when the events have a sparse representation in an alternative basis. Finally, the thesis describes how the statistical models needed for client-side anomaly detection may be learned efficiently, using limited space, via coresets.

The Caltech Community Seismic Network (CSN) is a prototypical example of a CSR system that harnesses accelerometers in volunteers' smartphones and consumer electronics. Using CSN, this thesis presents the systems and algorithmic techniques to design, build and evaluate a scalable network for real-time awareness of spatial phenomena such as dangerous earthquakes.

Fuzzy ART

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) models are real-time neural networks for category learning, pattern recognition, and prediction. Unsupervised fuzzy ART and supervised fuzzy ARTMAP synthesize fuzzy logic and ART networks by exploiting the formal similarity between the computations of fuzzy subsethood and the dynamics of ART category choice, search, and learning. Fuzzy ART self-organizes stable recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input patterns. It generalizes the binary ART 1 model, replacing the set-theoretic: intersection (∩) with the fuzzy intersection (∧), or component-wise minimum. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric: theory in which the fuzzy inter:>ec:tion and the fuzzy union (∨), or component-wise maximum, play complementary roles. Complement coding preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the input vector, and prevents a potential category proliferation problem. Adaptive weights :otart equal to one and can only decrease in time. A geometric interpretation of fuzzy AHT represents each category as a box that increases in size as weights decrease. A matching criterion controls search, determining how close an input and a learned representation must be for a category to accept the input as a new exemplar. A vigilance parameter (p) sets the matching criterion and determines how finely or coarsely an ART system will partition inputs. High vigilance creates fine categories, represented by small boxes. Learning stops when boxes cover the input space. With fast learning, fixed vigilance, and an arbitrary input set, learning stabilizes after just one presentation of each input. A fast-commit slow-recode option allows rapid learning of rare events yet buffers memories against recoding by noisy inputs. Fuzzy ARTMAP unites two fuzzy ART networks to solve supervised learning and prediction problems. A Minimax Learning Rule controls ARTMAP category structure, conjointly minimizing predictive error and maximizing code compression. Low vigilance maximizes compression but may therefore cause very different inputs to make the same prediction. When this coarse grouping strategy causes a predictive error, an internal match tracking control process increases vigilance just enough to correct the error. ARTMAP automatically constructs a minimal number of recognition categories, or "hidden units," to meet accuracy criteria. An ARTMAP voting strategy improves prediction by training the system several times using different orderings of the input set. Voting assigns confidence estimates to competing predictions given small, noisy, or incomplete training sets. ARPA benchmark simulations illustrate fuzzy ARTMAP dynamics. The chapter also compares fuzzy ARTMAP to Salzberg's Nested Generalized Exemplar (NGE) and to Simpson's Fuzzy Min-Max Classifier (FMMC); and concludes with a summary of ART and ARTMAP applications.

Fuzzy ART: Fast Stable Learning and Categorization of Analog Patterns by an Adaptive Resonance System

A Fuzzy ART model capable of rapid stable learning of recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input patterns is described. Fuzzy ART incorporates computations from fuzzy set theory into the ART 1 neural network, which learns to categorize only binary input patterns. The generalization to learning both analog and binary input patterns is achieved by replacing appearances of the intersection operator (n) in AHT 1 by the MIN operator (Λ) of fuzzy set theory. The MIN operator reduces to the intersection operator in the binary case. Category proliferation is prevented by normalizing input vectors at a preprocessing stage. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric theory in which the MIN operator (Λ) and the MAX operator (v) of fuzzy set theory play complementary roles. Complement coding uses on-cells and off-cells to represent the input pattern, and preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the total on-cell/off-cell vector. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. Decreasing weights correspond to increasing sizes of category "boxes". Smaller vigilance values lead to larger category boxes. Learning stops when the input space is covered by boxes. With fast learning and a finite input set of arbitrary size and composition, learning stabilizes after just one presentation of each input pattern. A fast-commit slow-recode option combines fast learning with a forgetting rule that buffers system memory against noise. Using this option, rare events can be rapidly learned, yet previously learned memories are not rapidly erased in response to statistically unreliable input fluctuations.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

Deteção e previsão de falhas em equipamentos de produção industrial

As empresas nacionais deparam-se com a necessidade de responder ao mercado com uma grande variedade de produtos, pequenas séries e prazos de entrega reduzidos. A competitividade das empresas num mercado global depende assim da sua eficiência, da sua flexibilidade, da qualidade dos seus produtos e de custos reduzidos. Para se atingirem estes objetivos é necessário desenvolverem-se estratégias e planos de ação que envolvem os equipamentos produtivos, incluindo: a criação de novos equipamentos complexos e mais fiáveis, alteração dos equipamentos existentes modernizando-os de forma a responderem às necessidades atuais e a aumentar a sua disponibilidade e produtividade; e implementação de políticas de manutenção mais assertiva e focada no objetivo de “zero avarias”, como é o caso da manutenção preditiva. Neste contexto, o objetivo principal deste trabalho consiste na previsão do instante temporal ótimo da manutenção de um equipamento industrial – um refinador da fábrica de Mangualde da empresa Sonae Industria, que se encontra em funcionamento contínuo 24 horas por dia, 365 dias por ano. Para o efeito são utilizadas medidas de sensores que monitorizam continuamente o estado do refinador. A principal operação de manutenção deste equipamento é a substituição de dois discos metálicos do seu principal componente – o desfibrador. Consequentemente, o sensor do refinador analisado com maior detalhe é o sensor que mede a distância entre os dois discos do desfibrador. Os modelos ARIMA consistem numa abordagem estatística avançada para previsão de séries temporais. Baseados na descrição da autocorrelação dos dados, estes modelos descrevem uma série temporal como função dos seus valores passados. Neste trabalho, a metodologia ARIMA é utilizada para determinar um modelo que efetua uma previsão dos valores futuros do sensor que mede a distância entre os dois discos do desfibrador, determinando-se assim o momento ótimo da sua substituição e evitando paragens forçadas de produção por ocorrência de uma falha por desgaste dos discos. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho constituem uma contribuição científica importante para a área da manutenção preditiva e deteção de falhas em equipamentos industriais.

Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models by the Simulated Method of Moments

This paper studies the application of the simulated method of moments (SMM) for the estimation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Monte Carlo analysis is employed to examine the small-sample properties of SMM in specifications with different curvature. Results show that SMM is computationally efficient and delivers accurate estimates, even when the simulated series are relatively short. However, asymptotic standard errors tend to overstate the actual variability of the estimates and, consequently, statistical inference is conservative. A simple strategy to incorporate priors in a method of moments context is proposed. An empirical application to the macroeconomic effects of rare events indicates that negatively skewed productivity shocks induce agents to accumulate additional capital and can endogenously generate asymmetric business cycles.

Heteroplasmy in mammal mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid

La nature a développé diverses stratégies afin d’assurer le commencement de la vie dans des conditions d’homoplasmie, c’est-à-dire des conditions telles que les cellules sont dotées du même ADN mitochondrial. Toutefois, des nouveaux haplotypes de l’acide désoxyribonucléique mitochondrial (ADNmt) peuvent apparaitre et croître de plusieurs façons tout au long de la durée d’une vie menant à l’hétéroplasmie. Par exemple, l’hétéroplasmie de l’ADNmt peut être créée artificiellement par des technologies reproductives assistées, ainsi que naturellement par le processus de vieillissement. De ce fait, la thèse de ce doctorat fut divisée en deux principaux objectifs. Le premier étant celui d’analyser les changements survenus dans l’hétéroplasmie de l’ADNmt produit par le transfert nucléaire des cellules somatiques (SCNT) lors du développement de l’embryon jusqu’au fœtus et aux tissus adultes de bovins clonés. En ce qui concerne le second objectif, il s’agit d’analyser les changements survenus dans l’hétéroplasmie de l’ADNmt causés par le vieillissement dans une cellule somatique adulte et dans des tissus germinaux durant l’ovogénèse, ainsi qu’au début de l’embryogenèse et dans la procédure de culture in vitro sur des souris. Dans la première série d’expériences sur des bovins, des fibroblastes fœtaux transportant une mutation d’ADNmt (insertion de 66 pb) furent fusionnés avec des ovocytes receveurs transportant l’ADNmt du type sauvage. La présence d’ADNmt venant de la cellule donneuse a été analysée à différents stades de développement, soit sur des embryons âgés de 17 jours (n=17), des fœtus âgés de 40 jours (n=3), des fœtus âgés de 60 jours (n=3), un fœtus âgé de 240 jours et 3 clones post-nataux âgés de 18 à 24 mois. Chaque individu s’est avéré être hétéroplasmique et 99 % (103/104) des échantillons de tissus analysés étaient également hétéroplasmiques. Cependant, l’ovaire venant du fœtus de 240 jours fut le seul à être homoplasmique pour l’ADNmt de l’ovocyte receveur. Dans la plupart des échantillons analysés (95,2 %, soit 99/104) la moyenne d’hétéroplasmie était de 1,46 %. Par contre, un fœtus âgé de 40 jours a présenté un niveau élevé d’hétéroplasmie (20,9 %), indiquant ainsi que des évènements rares d’augmentation de l’ADNmt des cellules donneuses peuvent survenir. Étant donné que la majorité des clones SCNT montrait de l’hétéroplasmie de l’ADNmt à des proportions comparables à celles des cellules donneuses au moment de la reconstruction de l’embryon, on a pu conclure que l’hétéroplasmie produite par des techniques de transfert nucléaire utilisant des cellules somatiques est due à une ségrégation neutre de l’ADNmt. Dans la seconde série d’expériences sur des souris, des femelles de différents âges, c.à.d. jeunes (0 – 8 mois), moyennes (8 – 16 mois) et vieilles (16 – 24 mois), ont été synchronisées (gonadotrophines) et sacrifiées dans le but d’obtenir des ovocytes au stade de vésicule germinal, et des ovocytes au stade métaphase-II produits in vivo et in vitro. De plus, des embryons in vivo et in vitro au stade de deux-cellules et des embryons au stade de blastocystes ont été obtenus de femelles jeunes. Différents tissus somatiques, venant de femelles des trois stades d’âge ont été obtenus : cerveau, foie, muscle et du cumulus ovocytaire. De plus, l’effet du vieillissement a été mesuré selon la fertilité de la femelle. En effet, les effets sur l’hétéroplasmie du vieillissement, du stade de développement et de la culture in vitro ont été mesurés dans des ovocytes et dans des embryons. Les effets du vieillissement sur les mitochondries ont été mesurés par rapport au nombre total de copies de l’ADNmt, au pourcentage des délétions communes et sur l’expression de trois gènes : Ndufs4, Mt-nd2 and Mt-nd4. Il a été possible d’observer que la fertilité des femelles dans la colonie de souris diminuait avec l’âge. En fait, le vieillissement affectait l’ADNmt dans les tissus somatiques, cependant il n’avait pas d’effet sur le cumulus, les ovocytes et les embryons. Le nombre de délétions de l’ADNmt augmentait pendant la reprise de la méiose et celui-ci diminuait au début du développement embryonnaire. La culture in vitro n’affectait pas la quantité d’ADNmt dans la plupart des tissus germinaux. Puisque nous n’avons pas trouvé d’effet de l’âge dans la majorité des paramètres mitochondriaux analysés dans les ovocytes et les embryons, il est suggéré que la délétion commune de l’ADNmt dans les tissus germinaux est davantage reliée au statut cellulaire de la production d’énergie qu’au processus de vieillissement. Deux sources différentes de mutations de l’ADNmt produites dans les ovocytes normaux ou reconstitués ont produit différents résultats d’hétéroplasmie au début de l’embryogénèse. Chez les bovins, l’hétéroplasmie artificielle impliquant une petite insertion (66 pb) dans la région non codante (D-loop) de l’ADNmt a été vraisemblablement non nocive pour l’embryon, tolérant la persistance de l’ADNmt étranger pendant les différents stades du développement des clones. Chez les souris, l’hétéroplasmie naturelle produite par une grande délétion (4974 pb délétion commune) dans la région codante de l’ADNmt a été vraisemblablement nocive pour l’embryon et par conséquent éliminée pour assurer l’homoplasmie au début du développement embryonnaire.

Caractéristiques des structures turbulentes de l'écoulement et du transport en charge de fond en rivière à lit de graviers lors de la montée d'une crue

En rivière à lit de graviers, le transport des sédiments en charge de fond est un processus intermittent qui dépend de plusieurs variables du système fluvial dont la prédiction est encore aujourd’hui inexacte. Les modèles disponibles pour prédire le transport par charriage utilisent des variables d’écoulement moyen et la turbulence n’est généralement pas considérée malgré que les tourbillons contenus dans les écoulements possèdent une quantité d’énergie importante. L’utilisation de nouvelles approches pour étudier la problématique du transport par charriage pourrait nous permettre d’améliorer notre connaissance de ce processus déterminant en rivière alluviale. Dans ce mémoire, nous documentons ces composantes de la dynamique fluviale dans un cours d’eau graveleux en période de crue. Les objectifs du projet de recherche sont : 1) d’examiner l’effet du débit sur les variables turbulentes et les caractéristiques des structures turbulentes cohérentes, 2) d’investiguer l’effet du débit sur les caractéristiques des événements de transport de sédiments individuels détectés à l’aide d’un nouvel algorithme développé et testé et 3) de relier les caractéristiques de l’écoulement turbulent aux événements de transport de sédiments individuels. Les données de turbulence montrent qu’à haut niveau d’eau, l’écoulement décéléré est peu cohérent et a une turbulence plus isotrope où les structures turbulentes cohérentes sont de courte durée. Ces observations se distinguent de celles faites à faible niveau d’eau, en écoulement accéléré, où la plus grande cohérence de l’écoulement correspond à ce qui est généralement observé dans les écoulements uniformes en rivières graveleuses. Les distributions de fréquence des variables associées aux événements de transport individuel (intensité de transport moyenne, durée d’événement et intervalle entre événements successifs) ont des formes différentes pour chaque intensité de crue. À haut niveau d’eau, le transport est moins intermittent qu’à faible débit où les événements rares caractérisent davantage les distributions. L’accélération de l’écoulement à petite échelle de temps joue un rôle positif sur le transport, mais surtout lorsque la magnitude de la crue mobilisatrice est en dessous du niveau plein bord. Les résultats de l’étude montrent que les caractéristiques de la turbulence ainsi que les liens complexes entre l’écoulement et le transport par charriage sont fonction du débit.

Emergencies and arbitrary coercion

Cette thèse jette un œil sceptique sur plusieurs théories courantes de l’état d’urgence. La plupart de ces théories de l’état d’urgence présupposent que la notion d'une « urgence » est claire, conceptuellement et pratiquement. J'argue que ceci n'est pas le cas et que cette certitude mal placée produit des problèmes pratiques et conceptuels avec ses théories. De plus, cette thèse démontre que cette certitude mal placée dans la clarté du concept de l'urgence mène les autorités gouvernementales à agir arbitrairement plutôt que selon des principes libéraux et démocratiques pendant des états d’urgence. Contre cette certitude mal placée et contre plusieurs théories contemporaines influentes des états d'urgence, j'offre une théorie rigoureuse et analytique du concept de l’« urgence. » Une fois que le concept de l'urgence est défini, et que cette conception est défendue, la thèse démontre les diverses manières dont les malentendus du concept, mènent aux utilisations arbitraires (de la puissance monopole de l'état) en situation d’urgence. En considérant les états d’urgences, comme événements rares, la thèse évite la tentation de les considérer comme événements exceptionnels capable de fragmenter l'ordre politique établi (comme d’autres théories le font). La thèse argue que les mesures prises par le gouvernent pendant l’état d’urgence devraient être compatibles plus généralement avec les valeurs démocratiques et libérales. En rejetant l'idée que les états d'urgence sont des événements exceptionnels, la thèse crée un espace conceptuel dans lequel des propositions plus constructives concernant la gestion des états d'urgence peuvent être entendues. De plus, en analysant les diverses manières dont les autorités gouvernementales utilisent leur forces de façon arbitraire pendant les états d’urgence, la thèse argue clairement pour la supervision institutionnelle accrue en ce qui concerne les procédures d’urgence et leur déploiement pendant des états d'urgence. En conclusion, la thèse argue que les démocraties libérales n'ont pas besoin de craindre les états d’urgences tandis que les démocraties libérales ont déjà les ressources requise pour administrer les états d’urgence. Contrairement à ce que d’autres théories l’état d'urgence recommandent, les démocraties libérales ont déjà les ressources institutionnelles et conceptuelles pour administrer les états d’urgences.

Tratamiento de Artritis reumatoide con antagonistas del factor de necrosis tumoral alfa y su asociación con el desarrollo de melanoma cutáneo: revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis.

Introducción: El tratamiento con antagonistas del factor de necrosis tumoral alfa (anti TNF) ha impactado el pronóstico y la calidad de vida de los pacientes con artritis reumatoide (AR) positivamente, sin embargo, se interroga un incremento en el riesgo de desarrollar melanoma. Objetivo: Conocer la asociación entre el uso de anti TNF y el desarrollo de melanoma maligno en pacientes con AR. Metodología: Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática en MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE LIBRARY y LILACS para ensayos clínicos, estudios observacionales, revisiones y meta-análisis en pacientes adultos con diagnóstico de AR y manejo con anti TNF (Certolizumab pegol, Adalimumab, Etanercept, Infliximab y Golimumab). Resultados: 37 estudios clínicos cumplieron los criterios de inclusión para el meta-análisis, con una población de 16567 pacientes. El análisis de heterogeneidad no fue significativo (p=1), no se encontró diferencia en el riesgo entre los grupos comparados DR -0.00 (IC 95% -0.001; -0.001). Un análisis adicional de los estudios en los que se reportó al menos 1 caso de melanoma (4222 pacientes) tampoco mostró diferencia en el riesgo DR -0.00 (IC 95% -0.004 ; -0.003). Conclusión: En la evidencia disponible a la fecha no encontramos asociación significativa entre el tratamiento con anti TNF en pacientes con diagnóstico de AR y el desarrollo de melanoma cutáneo.

Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are relatively rare events in the UK but, when they do occur, can be associated with weather that is considered extreme with respect to climatology (as indicated by the number of such events that have been analysed as case studies). These case studies usually associate UK MCSs with a synoptic environment known as the Spanish plume. Here a previously published 17 year climatology of UK MCS events is extended to the present day (from 1998 to 2008) and these events classified according to the synoptic environment in which they form. Three distinct synoptic environments have been identified, here termed the classical Spanish plume, modified Spanish plume, and European easterly plume. Detailed case studies of the two latter, newly defined, environments are presented. Composites produced for each environment further reveal the differences between them. The classical Spanish plume is associated with an eastward propagating baroclinic cyclone that evolves according to idealised life cycle 1. Conditional instability is released from a warm moist plume of air advected northeastwards from Iberia that is capped by warmer, but very dry air, from the Spanish plateau. The modified Spanish plume is associated with a slowly moving mature frontal system associated with a forward tilting trough (and possibly cut-off low) at 500 hPa that evolves according to idealised life cycle 2. As in the classical Spanish plume, conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected northwards from Iberia. The less frequent European easterly plume is associated with an omega block centred over Scandinavia at upper levels. Conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected westwards across northern continental Europe. Unlike the Spanish plume environments, the European easterly plume is not a warm sector phenomena associated with a baroclinic cyclone. However, in all environments the organisation of convection is associated with the interaction of an upper-level disturbance with a low-level region of warm advection.

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Replacement of the arginine biosynthesis operon in Xanthomonadales by ateral gene transfer

The role of lateral gene transfer (LGT) in prokaryotes has been shown to rapidly change the genome content, providing new gene tools for environmental adaptation. Features related to pathogenesis and resistance to strong selective conditions have been widely shown to be products of gene transfer between bacteria. The genomes of the gamma-proteobacteria from the genus Xanthomonas, composed mainly of phytopathogens, have potential genomic islands that may represent imprints of such evolutionary processes. In this work, the evolution of genes involved in the pathway responsible for arginine biosynthesis in Xanthomonadales was investigated, and several lines of evidence point to the foreign origin of the arg genes clustered within a potential operon. Their presence inside a potential genomic island, bordered by a tRNA gene, the unusual ranking of sequence similarity, and the atypical phylogenies indicate that the metabolic pathway for arginine biosynthesis was acquired through LGT in the Xanthomonadales group. Moreover, although homologues were also found in Bacteroidetes (Flavobacteria group), for many of the genes analyzed close homologues are detected in different life domains (Eukarya and Archaea), indicating that the source of these arg genes may have been outside the Bacteria clade. The possibility of replacement of a complete primary metabolic pathway by LGT events supports the selfish operon hypothesis and may occur only under very special environmental conditions. Such rare events reveal part of the history of these interesting mosaic Xanthomonadales genomes, disclosing the importance of gene transfer modifying primary metabolism pathways and extending the scenario for bacterial genome evolution.