The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

Highly efficient spin-conversion effect leading to energy up-converted electroluminescence in singlet fission photovoltaics

Free charge generation in donor-acceptor (D-A) based organic photovoltaic diodes (OPV) progresses through formation of charge-transfer (CT) and charge-separated (CS) states and excitation decay to the triplet level is considered as a terminal loss. On the other hand a direct excitation decay to the triplet state is beneficial for multiexciton harvesting in singlet fission photovoltaics (SF-PV) and the formation of CT-state is considered as a limiting factor for multiple triplet harvesting. These two extremes when present in a D-A system are expected to provide important insights into the mechanism of free charge generation and spin-character of bimolecular recombination in OPVs. Herein, we present the complete cycle of events linked to spin conversion in the model OPV system of rubrene/C60. By tracking the spectral evolution of photocurrent generation at short-circuit and close to open-circuit conditions we are able to capture spectral changes to photocurrent that reveal the triplet character of CT-state. Furthermore, we unveil an energy up-conversion effect that sets in as a consequence of triplet population build-up where triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) process effectively regenerates the singlet excitation. This detailed balance is shown to enable a rare event of photon emission just above the open-circuit voltage (VOC) in OPVs.

Unusual RNA plant virus integration in the soybean genome leads to the production of small RNAs

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is known to be a major force in genome evolution. The acquisition of genes from viruses by eukaryotic genomes is a well-studied example of HGT, including rare cases of non-retroviral RNA virus integration. The present study describes the integration of cucumber mosaic virus RNA-1 into soybean genome. After an initial metatranscriptomic analysis of small RNAs derived from soybean, the de novo assembly resulted a 3029-nt contig homologous to RNA-1. The integration of this sequence in the soybean genome was confirmed by DNA deep sequencing. The locus where the integration occurred harbors the full RNA-1 sequence followed by the partial sequence of an endogenous mRNA and another sequence of RNA-1 as an inverted repeat and allowing the formation of a hairpin structure. This region recombined into a retrotransposon located inside an exon of a soybean gene. The nucleotide similarity of the integrated sequence compared to other Cucumber mosaic virus sequences indicates that the integration event occurred recently. We described a rare event of non-retroviral RNA virus integration in soybean that leads to the production of a double-stranded RNA in a similar fashion to virus resistance RNAi plants.

Caspase-3-dependent phagocyte death during systemic Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium infection of mice.

Growth of Salmonella enterica in mammalian tissues results from continuous spread of bacteria to new host cells. Our previous work indicated that infective S. enterica are liberated from host cells via stochastic necrotic burst independently of intracellular bacterial numbers. Here we report that liver phagocytes can undergo apoptotic caspase-3-mediated cell death in vivo, with apoptosis being a rare event, more prevalent in heavily infected cells. The density-dependent apoptotic cell death is likely to constitute an alternative mechanism of bacterial spread as part of a bet-hedging strategy, ensuring an ongoing protective intracellular environment in which some bacteria can grow and persist.

History of whaling in and near North Carolina

This study aims to reconstruct the history of shore whaling in the southeastern United States, emphasizing statistics on the catch of right whales, Eubalaena glacialis, the preferred targets. The earliest record of whaling in North Carolina is of a proposed voyage from New York in 1667. Early settlers on the Outer Banks utilized whale strandings by trying out the blubber of carcasses that came ashore, and some whale oil was exported from the 1660s onward. New England whalemen whaled along the North Carolina coast during the 1720s, and possibly earlier. As some of the whalemen from the northern colonies moved to Nortb Carolina, a shore-based whale fishery developed. This activity apparently continued without interruption until the War of Independence in 1776, and continued or was reestablished after the war. The methods and techniques of the North Carolina shore whalers changed slowly: as late as the 1890s they used a drogue at the end of the harpoon line and refrained from staying fast to the harpooned whale, they seldom employed harpoon guns, and then only during the waning years of the fishery. The whaling season extended from late December to May, most successfully between February and May. Whalers believed they were intercepting whales migrating north along the coast. Although some whaling occurred as far north as Cape Hatteras, it centered on the outer coasts of Core, Shackleford, and Bogue banks, particularly near Cape Lookout. The capture of whales other than right whales was a rare event. The number of boat crews probably remained fairly stable during much of the 19th century, with some increase in effort in the late 1870s and early 1880s when numbers of boat crews reached 12 to 18. Then by the late 1880s and 1890s only about 6 crews were active. North Carolina whaling had become desultory by the early 1900s, and ended completely in 1917. Judging by export and tax records, some ocean-going vessels made good catches off this coast in about 1715-30, including an estimated 13 whales in 1719, 15 in one year during the early 1720s, 5-6 in a three-year period of the mid to late 1720s, 8 by one ship's crew in 1727, 17 by one group of whalers in 1728-29, and 8-9 by two boats working from Ocracoke prior to 1730. It is impossible to know how representative these fragmentary records are for the period as a whole. The Carolina coast declined in importance as a cruising ground for pelagic whalers by the 1740s or 1750s. Thereafter, shore whaling probably accounted for most of the (poorly documented) catch. Lifetime catches by individual whalemen on Shackleford Banks suggest that the average annual catch was at least one to two whales during 1830·80, perhaps about four during the late 1870s and early 1880s, and declining to about one by the late 1880s. Data are insufficient to estimate the hunting loss rate in the Outer Banks whale fishery. North Carolina is the only state south of New Jersey known to have had a long and well established shore whaling industry. Some whaling took place in Chesapeake Bay and along the coast of Virginia during the late 17th and early 18th centuries, but it is poorly documented. Most of the rigbt whales taken off South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida during the 19th century were killed by pelagic whalers. Florida is the only southeastern state with evidence of an aboriginal (pre-contact) whale fishery. Right whale calves may have been among the aboriginal whalers' principal targets. (PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Direct simulation of proton-coupled electron transfer reaction dynamics and mechanisms

Proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions are ubiquitous throughout chemistry and biology. However, challenges arise in both the the experimental and theoretical investigation of PCET reactions; the rare-event nature of the reactions and the coupling between quantum mechanical electron- and proton-transfer with the slower classical dynamics of the surrounding environment necessitates the development of robust simulation methodology. In the following dissertation, novel path-integral based methods are developed and employed for the direct simulation of the reaction dynamics and mechanisms of condensed-phase PCET.

Prevalência de transtorno do estresse pós-traumático no período pós-parto entre mulheres atendidas em maternidade de referência para agravos perinatais no município do Rio de Janeiro

O Transtorno do estresse pós-traumático (TEPT) é um transtorno mental que ocorre em resposta a um evento traumático que coloca em risco a vida do indivíduo ou de outras pessoas. O TEPT no período pós-parto foi documentado pela primeira vez em 1978. Porém, há poucos estudos sobre o tema, principalmente em gestantes de alto risco materno e fetal. Visando preencher essa lacuna, essa dissertação tem por objetivo estimar a magnitude de TEPT no período pós-parto em uma maternidade de alto risco fetal no município do Rio de Janeiro e identificar subgrupos vulneráveis ao transtorno. Trata-se de um estudo transversal, cuja população de estudo foi composta por 456 mulheres que tiveram o parto no Instituto Fernandes Figueira e realizaram a consulta de revisão pós-parto entre fevereiro e julho de 2011. Casos suspeitos de TEPT foram identificados por meio de dois instrumentos: Trauma History Questionnaire (THQ) utilizado para a captação de situações potencialmente traumáticas ao longo da vida e Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist (PCL-C) para rastreio de sintomas de TEPT. A prevalência agregada de TEPT no período pós-parto foi de 9,4%. Subgrupos considerados vulneráveis foram: mulheres com três ou mais partos anteriores (15,1%), com o recém-nascido com APGAR menor ou igual a 7 no primeiro minuto (13,6%), com histórico de psicopatologia anterior (29,0%) ou concomitante à gestação (36,7%), com depressão pós-parto (31,5%), mulheres que sofreram violência física (19,8%) e psicológica (11,6%) perpetrada por parceiro íntimo durante a gestação, mulheres que sofreram abuso sexual na infância (25,7%) e com histórico de 5 ou mais situações traumáticas anteriores (25,9%). A elevada prevalência de TEPT encontrada entre as mulheres entrevistadas pode ser, em parte, atribuída às particularidades da população assistida nessa instituição, de reconhecido risco materno e fetal. A alta prevalência de casos suspeitos de depressão pós-parto entre as mulheres com suspeição de TEPT é um fator de preocupação adicional, já que dificulta o manejo clínico dos casos e afasta a mulher e a criança dos serviços de saúde. TEPT no período pós-parto não é um evento raro e merece atenção. Rápido diagnóstico e tratamento são fundamentais para a melhor qualidade de vida da mãe tornando-a apta aos cuidados do recém-nascido.

Biology and population dynamics of cowcod (Sebastes levis) in the southern California Bight

Cowcod (Sebastes levis) is a large (100-cm-FL), long-lived (maximum observed age 55 yr) demersal rockfish taken in multispecies commercial and recreational fisheries off southern and central California. It lives at 20–500 m depth: adults (>44 cm TL) inhabit rocky areas at 90–300 m and juveniles inhabit fine sand and clay at 40–100 m. Both sexes have similar growth and maturity. Both sexes recruit to the fishery before reaching full maturity. Based on age and growth data, the natural mortality rate is about M =0.055/yr, but the estimate is uncertain. Biomass, recruitment, and mortality during 1951–98 were estimated in a delay-difference model with catch data and abundance indices. The same model gave less precise estimates for 1916–50 based on catch data and assumptions about virgin biomass and recruitment such as used in stock reduction analysis. Abundance indices, based on rare event data, included a habitat-area–weighted index of recreational catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE index values were 0.003–0.07 fish per angler hour), a standardized index of proportion of positive tows in CalCOFI ichthyoplankton survey data (binomial errors, 0–13% positive tows/yr), and proportion of positive tows for juveniles in bottom trawl surveys (binomial errors, 0–30% positive tows/yr). Cowcod are overfished in the southern California Bight; biomass during the 1998 season was about 7% of the virgin level and recent catches have been near 20 metric tons (t)/yr. Projections based on recent recruitment levels indicate that biomass will decline at catch levels > 5 t/yr. Trend data indicate that recruitment will be poor in the near future. Recreational fishing effort in deep water has increased and has become more effective for catching cowcod. Areas with relatively high catch rates for cowcod are fewer and are farther offshore. Cowcod die after capture and cannot be released alive. Two areas recently closed to bottom fishing will help rebuild the cowcod stock.

Leukaemic transformation of donor cells in a patient receiving a second allogeneic bone marrow transplant for severe aplastic anaemia

Allogeneic blood or bone marrow transplantation is a successful treatment for leukaemia and severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). Graft rejection following transplantation for leukaemia is a rare event but leukaemic relapse may occur at varying rates, depending upon the stage of leukaemia at which the transplant was undertaken and the type of leukaemia. Relapse is generally assumed to occur in residual host cells, which are refractory to, or escape from the myeloablative conditioning therapy. Rare cases have been described, however, in which the leukaemia recurs in cells of donor origin. Lack of a successful outcome of blood or bone marrow transplantation for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA), however, is due to late graft rejection or graft-versus-host disease. Leukaemia in cells of donor origin has rarely been reported in patients following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation for SAA. This report describes leukaemic transformation in donor cells following a second allogeneic BMT for severe aplastic anaemia. PCR of short tandem repeats in bone marrow aspirates and in colonies derived from BFUE and CFU-GM indicated the donor origin of leukaemia. Donor leukaemia is a rare event following transplantation for severe aplastic anaemia but may represent the persistence or perturbation of a stromal defect in these patients inducing leukaemic change in donor haemopoietic stem cells.

Persistent donor chimaerism is consistent with disease-free survival following BMT for chronic myeloid leukaemia

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) can be treated successfully with allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) leading to long-term disease-free survival. Leukemia relapse, however, remains a significant clinical problem. Relapse following BMT presumably results from the expansion of small numbers of recipient leukaemic cells which have survived the conditioning therapy. In order to define patients who are at a high risk of leukaemia relapse, a variety of techniques have been employed to detect persistence of host haemopoiesis (mixed chimaerism, MC) or residual leukaemia (minimal residual disease, MRD). However, the precise relationship between the detection of MC and MRD post-BMT is unknown. We have investigated chimaerism and MRD status in 22 patients who were in clinical and haematological remission post-allogeneic BMT for chronic phase CML. Chimaerism was assessed using short tandem repeat PCR (STR-PCR) while BCR-ABL mRNA detection using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect the presence of MRD. Seventeen patients received unmanipulated marrow (non-TCD) while in five patients a T cell-depleted transplant (TCD) was performed as additional GVHD prophylaxis. Chimaerism was evaluated in 18 patients (14 non-TCD, four TCD). Mixed chimaerism was an uncommon finding in recipients of unmanipulated BMT (21%) when compared to TCD BMT (100%). No evidence of MRD, as identified using the BCR-ABL mRNA RT-PCR assay, was detected in those patients who were donor chimaeras. Early and transient MC and MRD was detected in four patients (two non-TCD, two TCD) who have subsequently converted to a donor profile. One patient has stable low-level MC but remains MRD negative 4 years post-BMT. Late MC and MRD was observed in two patients who relapsed >6 years after TCD BMT for CML. We conclude that mixed chimaerism is a rare event in recipients of unmanipulated BMT and that donor chimaerism as detected by STR-PCR assay is consistent with disease-free survival and identifies patients with a low risk of leukaemic relapse post-BMT for CML.

Recurrence of Philadelphia chromosome-positive leukemia in donor cells after bone marrow transplantation for chronic granulocytic leukemia

Allogeneic bone marrow transplantation has been shown to be a very effective therapy for Chronic Granulocytic Leukemia with long term disease free survivals in excess of 60%. Relapse rates remain low at 15% following histocompatible sibling transplants and lower rates following matched unrelated donor grafts. Relapse rates however, are higher if BMT is carried out in transformation or blast crisis. Leukemic relapse in donor cells following transplantation for CGL is a rare event. The occurrence of donor leukemia however, may be under reported as accurate and sensitive investigation of the origin of relapsed leukemia following BMT requires DNA based technologies. A possible mechanism of donor leukemia in CGL is transfection of donor cells with the chimeric gene which is unique to this disease. It is possible that the malignant cells found in transformed or blast crisis of CGL may have a greater potential to transfect donor haematopoietic material. Careful evaluation of the incidence of donor leukemia using molecular biology methods may elucidate the frequency of this event following BMT for CGL.

Estudo de Monte Carlo da electroluminescência em detectores gasosos

Uma descrição detalhada do processo de electroluminescência é um prérequisito na optimização de detectores gasosos para sistemas de imagiologia, astrofísica, física de altas energias e experiências de eventos raros. Neste trabalho, é apresentada e caracterizada uma nova e versátil plataforma de simulação da emissão de luz durante a deriva de electrões em gases nobres, desenvolvida usando os programas Magboltz e Garfield. Propriedades intrínsecas da electroluminescência em gases nobres são calculadas e apresentadas em função do campo eléctrico aplicado, nomeadamente eficiências, rendimento e flutuações estatísticas associadas. São obtidos resultados em grande concordância com dados experimentais e simulações Monte Carlo anteriores. A plataforma é usada para determinar as condições óptimas de funcionamento de detectores como o NEXT (Neutrino Experiment with a Xenon TPC) e outros baseados nas micro-estruturas GEM (Gas Electron Multiplier) e MHSP (Micro- Hole & Strip Plate).

Characterization of a Canadian mink H3N2 influenza A virus isolate genetically related to triple reassortant swine influenza virus.

In 2007, an H3N2 influenza A virus was isolated from Canadian mink. This virus was found to be phylogenetically related to a triple reassortant influenza virus which emerged in Canadian swine in 2005, but it is antigenically distinct. The transmission of the virus from swine to mink seems to have occurred following the feeding of animals with a ration composed of uncooked meat by-products of swine obtained from slaughterhouse facilities. Serological analyses suggest that the mink influenza virus does not circulate in the swine population. Presently, the prevalence of influenza virus in Canadian farmed and wild mink populations is unknown. The natural occurrence of influenza virus infection in mink with the presence of clinical signs is a rare event that deserves to be reported.

Perforaciones duodenales posteriores a colangiopancreatografia retrograda endoscopica (CPRE) en el hospital universitario mayor - MEDERI

Las perforaciones duodenales posteriores a colangiopancreatografía retrógrada endoscópica (POST – CPRE) son un evento raro pero que genera aumento en la morbimortalidad del paciente expuesto a este método diagnóstico y terapéutico. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es describir una serie de casos haciendo énfasis en las características sociodemográficas y las relacionadas con el diagnóstico y el manejo.