Epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for detection of antibodies to Ross River virus in vertebrate sera

We describe the development of an epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the sensitive and rapid detection of antibodies to Ross River virus (RRV) in human sera and known vertebrate host species. This ELISA provides an alternative method for the serodiagnosis of RRV infections.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Polymerase chain reaction tests for the identification of Ross River, Kunjin and Murray Valley encephalitis virus infections in horses

Objective To develop and validate specific, sensitive and rapid diagnostic tests using RT-PCR for the detection of Ross River virus (RRV), Kunjin virus (KV) and Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) infections in horses. Methods Primer sets based on nucleotide sequence encoding the envelope glycoprotein E2 of RRV and on the nonstructural protein 5 (NS5) of KV and MVEV were designed and used in single round PCRs to test for the respective viruses in infected cell cultures and, in the case of RRV, in samples of horse blood and synovial fluid. Results The primer pairs designed for each of the three viruses amplified a product of expected size from prototype viruses that were grown in cell culture. The identity of each of the products was confirmed by nucleotide sequencing indicating that in the context used the RT-PCRs were specific. RRV was detected in serums from 8 horses for which there were clinical signs consistent with RRV infection such that an acute-phase serum sample was taken and submitted for RRV serology testing. The RRV RT-PCR was analytically sensitive in that it was estimated to detect as little as 50 TCID50 of RRV per mL of serum and was specific in that the primer pairs did not amplify other products from the 8 serum samples. The RRV primers also detected virus in three independent mosquito pools known to contain RRV by virus isolation in cell culture. Samples from horses suspected to be infected with KV and MVEV were not available. Conclusion Despite much anecdotal and serological evidence for infection of horses with RRV actual infection and associated clinical disease are infrequently confirmed. The availability of a specific and analytically sensitive RT-PCR for the detection of RRV provides additional opportunities to confirm the presence of this virus in clinical samples. The RTPCR primers for the diagnosis of KV and MVEV infections were shown to be specific for cell culture grown viruses but the further validation of these tests requires the availability of appropriate clinical samples from infected horses.

Vector competence of Coquillettidia linealis (Skuse) (Diptera : Culicidae) for Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses

Coquillettidia linealis is a severe pest on some of the Moreton Bay islands in Queensland, Australia, but little is known of its breeding habitats and biology. Because of its high abundance and its association with Ross River (RR) and Barmah Forest (BF) viruses by field isolation, its vector competence was evaluated in the laboratory by feeding dilutions of both viruses in blood. For RR, Cq. linealis was of comparable efficiency to Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse), recognised as being a major vector. Results were as follows for Cq. linealis and Oc. vigilax , respectively: dose to infect 50%, 10(2.2) and

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Experimental infection of Australian brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula (Phalangeridae : Marsupialia), with Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses by use of a natural mosquito vector system

Brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula Kerr, were experimentally infected with Ross River (RR) or Barmah Forest (BF) virus by Aedes vigilax (Skuse) mosquitoes. Eight of 10 animals exposed to RR virus developed neutralizing antibody, and 3 possums developed high viremia for < 48 hr after infection, sufficient to infect recipient mosquitoes. Two of 10 animals exposed to BF virus developed neutralizing antibody. Both infected possums maintained detectable neutralizing antibody to BF for at least 45 days after infection (log neutralization index > 2.0 at 45 days). Eight possums did not develop neutralizing antibody to BF despite exposure to infected mosquitoes. These results suggest that T. vulpecula may potentially act as a reservoir species for RR in urban areas. However, T. vulpecula infected with BF do not develop viremia sufficient to infect mosquitoes and are unlikely to be important hosts for BF.

Assessement of Malaria Transmission in an Area with Very Low Mosquito Density

The increase in world travel in recent years, especially to and from areas where vector-borne diseases are endemic, has resulted in a substantial rise in imported cases of those diseases. In particular, malaria is a cause of concern. In those countries at the edge of its distribution, it can be difficult to distinguish between autochthonous and imported cases. However, distinguishing between the two is important because of the different allocation of resources to combat the disease that each requires. In general, observation of the various stages of parasite development in wild-caught female mosquitoes is considered evidence of autochthonous transmission. Observation of oocysts in the mosquito mid-gut testifies that mosquitoes are susceptible to infection but conclusions cannot be reached about their ability to complete the transmission cycle. Perhaps the best indication of autochthonous transmission is microscopic observation of sporozoites in mosquito salivary glands, since this detects parasites ready to be inoculated (BELER et al., 1990). Detection of circumsporozoite protein (CSP)(BURKOT, WILLIAMS & SCHNEIDER, 1984) in dry mosquito thoraxes, by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) is also widely used to determine transmission, especially when large numbers of mosquitoes need to be processed. Such assays provide information about the parasite species infecting the mosquito (BURKOT & WIRTZ, 1986; WIRTZ et al., 1987; BELER et al., 1990).

Determination of extreme floods using a distributed hydrological model

Hydrological models developed for extreme precipitation of PMP type are difficult to calibrate because of the scarcity of available data for these events. This article presents the process and results of calibration for a distributed hydrological model at fine scale developed for the estimation of probable maximal floods in the case of a PMP. This calibration is done on two Swiss catchments for two events of summer storms. The calculation done is concentrated on the estimation of the parameters of the model, divided in two parts. The first is necessary for the computation of flow speeds while the second is required for the determination of the initial and final infiltration capacities for each terrain type. The results, validated with the Nash equation show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. We also apply this model on two Romanian catchments, showing the river network and estimated flow.

Global Distributed Delivery Model for Internet Service Provider

Globaalin talouden rakenteet muuttuvat jatkuvasti. Yritykset toimivat kansainvälisillä markkinoilla aiempaa enemmän. Tuotannon lisäämiseksi monet yritykset ovat ulkoistaneet tuotteidensa tuki- ja ylläpitotoiminnot halvan työvoiman maihin. Yritykset voivat tällöin keskittää toimintansa ydinosamiseensa. Vapautuneita resursseja voidaan käyttää yrityksen sisäisessä tuotekehityksessä ja panostaa seuraavan sukupolven tuotteiden ja teknologioiden kehittämiseen. Diplomityö esittelee Globaalisti hajautetun toimitusmallin Internet-palveluntarjoajalle jossa tuotteiden tuki- ja ylläpito on ulkoistettu Intiaan. Teoriaosassa esitellään erilaisia toimitusmalleja ja keskitytään erityisesti hajautettuun toimitusmalliin. Tämän lisäksi luetellaan valintakriteerejä joilla voidaan arvioida projektin soveltuvuutta ulkoistettavaksi sekä esitellään mahdollisuuksia ja uhkia jotka sisältyvät globaaliin ulkoistusprosessiin. Käytäntöosassa esitellään globaali palvelun toimittamisprosessi joka on kehitetty Internet-palveluntarjoajan tarpeisiin.