Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Optimization of container process at seaport terminals

Seaport container terminals are an important part of the logistics systems in international trades. This paper investigates the relationship between quay cranes, yard machines and container storage locations in a multi-berth and multi-ship environment. The aims are to develop a model for improving the operation efficiency of the seaports and to develop an analytical tool for yard operation planning. Due to the fact that the container transfer times are sequence-dependent and with the large number of variables involve, the proposed model cannot be solved in a reasonable time interval for realistically sized problems. For this reason, List Scheduling and Tabu Search algorithms have been developed to solve this formidable and NP-hard scheduling problem. Numerical implementations have been analysed and promising results have been achieved.

Greener and leaner : unleashing capacity of railroad concrete ties via limit states concept

New knowledge has raised a concern about the cost-ineffective design methods and the true performance of railroad prestressed concrete ties. Because of previous knowledge deficiencies, railway civil and track engineers have been aware of the conservative design methods for structural components in any railway track that rely on allowable stresses and material strength reductions. In particular, railway sleeper (or railroad tie) is an important component of railway tracks and is commonly made of prestressed concrete. The existing code for designing such components makes use of the permissible stress design concept, whereas the fiber stresses over cross sections at initial and final stages are limited by some empirical values. It is believed that the concrete ties complying with the permissible stress concept possess unduly untapped fracture toughness, based on a number of proven experiments and field data. Collaborative research run by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Railway Engineering and Technologies (Rail CRC) was initiated to ascertain the reserved capacity of Australian railway prestressed concrete ties that were designed using the existing design code. The findings have led to the development of a new limit-states design concept. This paper highlights the conventional and the new limit-states design philosophies and their implication to both the railway community and the public. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Optimising container processes at multimodal seaport terminals : an integrated approach and application

A Multimodal Seaport Container Terminal (MSCT) is a complex system which requires careful planning and control in order to operate efficiently. It consists of a number of subsystems that require optimisation of the operations within them, as well as synchronisation of machines and containers between the various subsystems. Inefficiency in the terminal can delay ships from their scheduled timetables, as well as cause delays in delivering containers to their inland destinations, both of which can be very costly to their operators. The purpose of this PhD thesis is to use Operations Research methodologies to optimise and synchronise these subsystems as an integrated application. An initial model is developed for the overall MSCT; however, due to a large number of assumptions that had to be made, as well as other issues, it is found to be too inaccurate and infeasible for practical use. Instead, a method of developing models for each subsystem is proposed that then be integrated with each other. Mathematical models are developed for the Storage Area System (SAS) and Intra-terminal Transportation System (ITTS). The SAS deals with the movement and assignment of containers to stacks within the storage area, both when they arrive and when they are rehandled to retrieve containers below them. The ITTS deals with scheduling the movement of containers and machines between the storage areas and other sections of the terminal, such as the berth and road/rail terminals. Various constructive heuristics are explored and compared for these models to produce good initial solutions for large-sized problems, which are otherwise impractical to compute by exact methods. These initial solutions are further improved through the use of an innovative hyper-heuristic algorithm that integrates the SAS and ITTS solutions together and optimises them through meta-heuristic techniques. The method by which the two models can interact with each other as an integrated system will be discussed, as well as how this method can be extended to the other subsystems of the MSCT.

Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Using process models to support design of airport terminals

The complex design process of airport terminal needs to support a wide range of changes in operational facilities for both usual and unusual/emergency events. Process model describes how activities within a process are connected and also states logical information flow of the various activities. The traditional design process overlooks the necessity of information flow from the process model to the actual building design, which needs to be considered as a integral part of building design. The current research introduced a generic method to obtain design related information from process model to incorporate with the design process. Appropriate integration of the process model prior to the design process uncovers the relationship exist between spaces and their relevant functions, which could be missed in the traditional design approach. The current paper examines the available Business Process Model (BPM) and generates modified Business Process Model(mBPM) of check-in facilities of Brisbane International airport. The information adopted from mBPM then transform into possible physical layout utilizing graph theory.

Optimising container transfers at multimodal terminals

The use of containers have greatly reduced handling operations at ports and at all other transfer points, thus increasing the efficiency and speed of transportation. This was done in an attempt to cut down the cost of maritime transport, mainly by reducing cargo handling and costs, and ships' time in port by speeding up handling operations. This paper discusses the major factors influencing the transfer efficiency of seaport container terminals. A network model is designed to analyse container progress in the system and applied to a seaport container terminal. The model presented here can be seen as a decision support system in the context of investment appraisal of multimodal container terminals. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Genetic algorithms to schedule container transfers at multimodal terminals

Optimising the container transfer schedule at the multimodal terminals is known to be NP-hard, which implies that the best solution becomes computationally infeasible as problem sizes increase. Genetic Algorithm (GA) techniques are used to reduce container handling/transfer times and ships' time at the port by speeding up handling operations. The GA is chosen due to the relatively good results that have been reported even with the simplest GA implementations to obtain near-optimal solutions in reasonable time. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled throughput time as well as different strategies such as the alternative plant layouts, storage policies and number of yard machines. A real data set used for the solution and subsequent sensitivity analysis is applied to the alternative plant layouts, storage policies and number of yard machines.

Service condition of railroad corridors around the insulated rail joints

Railroad corridors contain large number of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) that act as safety critical elements in the circuitries of the signaling and broken rail identification systems. IRJs are regarded as sources of excitation for the passage of loaded wheels leading to high impact forces; these forces in turn cause dips, cross levels and twists to the railroad geometry in close proximity to the sections containing the IRJs in addition to the local damages to the railhead of the IRJs. Therefore, a systematic monitoring of the IRJs in railroad is prudent to mitigate potential risk of their sudden failure (e.g., broken tie plates) under the traffic. This paper presents a simple method of periodic recording of images using time-lapse photography and total station surveying measurements to understand the ongoing deterioration of the IRJs and their surroundings. Over a 500 day period, data were collected to examine the trends in narrowing of the joint gap due to plastic deformation the railhead edges and the dips, cross levels and twists caused to the railroad geometry due to the settlement of ties (sleepers) around the IRJs. The results reflect that the average progressive settlement beneath the IRJs is larger than that under the continuously welded rail, which leads to excessive deviation of railroad profile, cross levels and twists.

Agent-based model of passenger flows in airport terminals

Passenger flow studies in airport terminals have shown consistent statistical relationships between airport spatial layout and pedestrian movement, facilitating prediction of movement from terminal designs. However, these studies are done at an aggregate level and do not incorporate how individual passengers make decisions at a microscopic level. Therefore, they do not explain the formation of complex movement flows. In addition, existing models mostly focus on standard airport processing procedures such as immigration and security, but seldom consider discretionary activities of passengers, and thus are not able to truly describe the full range of passenger flows within airport terminals. As the route-choice decision-making of passengers involves many uncertain factors within the airport terminals, the mechanisms to fulfill the capacity of managing the route-choice have proven difficult to acquire and quantify. Could the study of cognitive factors of passengers (i.e. human mental preferences of deciding which on-airport facility to use) be useful to tackle these issues? Assuming the movement in virtual simulated environments can be analogous to movement in real environments, passenger behaviour dynamics can be similar to those generated in virtual experiments. Three levels of dynamics have been devised for motion control: the localised field, tactical level, and strategic level. A localised field refers to basic motion capabilities, such as walking speed, direction and avoidance of obstacles. The other two fields represent cognitive route-choice decision-making. This research views passenger flow problems via a "bottom-up approach", regarding individual passengers as independent intelligent agents who can behave autonomously and are able to interact with others and the ambient environment. In this regard, passenger flow formation becomes an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of passengers interacting with others. In the thesis, first, the passenger flow in airport terminals was investigated. Discretionary activities of passengers were integrated with standard processing procedures in the research. The localised field for passenger motion dynamics was constructed by a devised force-based model. Next, advanced traits of passengers (such as their desire to shop, their comfort with technology and their willingness to ask for assistance) were formulated to facilitate tactical route-choice decision-making. The traits consist of quantified measures of mental preferences of passengers when they travel through airport terminals. Each category of the traits indicates a decision which passengers may take. They were inferred through a Bayesian network model by analysing the probabilities based on currently available data. Route-choice decision-making was finalised by calculating corresponding utility results based on those probabilities observed. Three sorts of simulation outcomes were generated: namely, queuing length before checkpoints, average dwell time of passengers at service facilities, and instantaneous space utilisation. Queuing length reflects the number of passengers who are in a queue. Long queues no doubt cause significant delay in processing procedures. The dwell time of each passenger agent at the service facilities were recorded. The overall dwell time of passenger agents at typical facility areas were analysed so as to demonstrate portions of utilisation in the temporal aspect. For the spatial aspect, the number of passenger agents who were dwelling within specific terminal areas can be used to estimate service rates. All outcomes demonstrated specific results by typical simulated passenger flows. They directly reflect terminal capacity. The simulation results strongly suggest that integrating discretionary activities of passengers makes the passenger flows more intuitive, observing probabilities of mental preferences by inferring advanced traits make up an approach capable of carrying out tactical route-choice decision-making. On the whole, the research studied passenger flows in airport terminals by an agent-based model, which investigated individual characteristics of passengers and their impact on psychological route-choice decisions of passengers. Finally, intuitive passenger flows in airport terminals were able to be realised in simulation.

A quay crane scheduling methodology for multimodal container terminals

This thesis develops an operational decision support tool for container terminal managements. The tool generates efficient schedules for shore cranes handling containers carried by mega container vessels.

Principles of experience design for airport terminals

In this thesis, the issue of airport terminal design is examined from a novel perspective: that of the passenger rather than the airport operator. A qualitative approach, based on interviews with 199 passengers at Brisbane International Terminal was adopted. The outcomes of this research make the following three key contributions to existing knowledge: (i) identification of a paradox in the Level of Service metrics, (ii) development of a conceptual model of passenger experience and six design principles and (iii) contribution towards advancing the theoretical knowledge about passengers and their experience in airport terminals.