Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Spurious transients of projection methods in microflow simulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Simulation in training: one-year experience using an efficiency index to assess interventional radiology fellow training status

PURPOSE: To compare objective fellow and expert efficiency indices for an interventional radiology renal artery stenosis skill set with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Mentice VIST simulator was used for three different renal artery stenosis simulations of varying difficulty, which were used to grade performance. Fellows' indices at three intervals throughout 1 year were compared to expert baseline performance. Seventy-four simulated procedures were performed, 63 of which were captured as audiovisual recordings. Three levels of fellow experience were analyzed: 1, 6, and 12 months of dedicated interventional radiology fellowship. The recordings were compiled on a computer workstation and analyzed. Distinct measurable events in the procedures were identified with task analysis, and data regarding efficiency were extracted. Total scores were calculated as the product of procedure time, fluoroscopy time, tools, and contrast agent volume. The lowest scores, which reflected efficient use of tools, radiation, and time, were considered to indicate proficiency. Subjective analysis of participants' procedural errors was not included in this analysis. RESULTS: Fellows' mean scores diminished from 1 month to 12 months (42,960 at 1 month, 18,726 at 6 months, and 9,636 at 12 months). The experts' mean score was 4,660. In addition, the range of variance in score diminished with increasing experience (from a range of 5,940-120,156 at 1 month to 2,436-85,272 at 6 months and 2,160-32,400 at 12 months). Expert scores ranged from 1,450 to 10,800. CONCLUSIONS: Objective efficiency indices for simulated procedures can demonstrate scores directly comparable to the level of clinical experience.

A complementary radiographic projection of the equine temporomandibular joint

The complexity of the equine skull makes the temporomandibular joint a difficult area to evaluate radiographically. The goal of this study was to determine the optimal angle for a complementary radiographic projection of the equine temporomandibular joint based on a computed tomography (CT) cadaver study. CT was performed on six equine cadaver heads of horses that were euthanized for other reasons than temporomandibular joint disease. After the CT examination, 3D reconstruction of the equine skull was performed to subjectively determine the angle for a complementary radiographic projection of the temporomandibular joint. The angle was measured on the left and right temporomandibular joint of each head. Based on the measurements obtained from the CT images, a radiographic projection of the temporomandibular joint in a rostra-145 degrees ventral-caudodorsal oblique (R45 degrees V-CdDO) direction was developed by placing the X-ray unit 30 degrees laterally, maintaining at the same time the R45 degrees V-CdDO angle (R45 degrees V30 degrees L-CdDLO). This radiographic projection was applied to all cadaver heads and on six live horses. In three of the live horses abnormal findings associated with the temporomandibular joint were detected. We conclude that this new radiographic projection of the temporomandibular joint provides superior visualization of the temporomandibular joint space and the articular surface of the mandibular condyle.

Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ($\sigma$ = 0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with covariates for age at-time-of-bombing, age at-time-of-death and gender. Excess risks were in good agreement with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from $-$15% to $-$30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative projection model was $-$37.1% for males and $-$23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased $-$27.1% for males and $-$43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 85 (DRREF = 2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.02%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risks increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10%/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04%/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for U.S. nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors. (Supported by U.S. NRC Grant NRC-04-091-02.) ^

Prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and school children of Ibiporã - PR, Brazil (1989 to 1996)

Purpose: To establish the prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and schoolchildren of Ibiporã, Brazil. Methods: A survey of 6 to 12-year-old children from public and private elementary schools was carried out in Ibiporã between 1989 and 1996. Visual acuity measurements were performed by trained teachers using Snellen's chart. Children with visual acuity <0.7 in at least one eye were referred to a complete ophthalmologic examination. Results: 35,936 visual acuity measurements were performed in 13,471 children. 1.966 children (14.59%) were referred to an ophthalmologic examination. Amblyopia was diagnosed in 237 children (1.76%), whereas strabismus was observed in 114 cases (0.84%). Cataract (n=17) (0.12%), chorioretinitis (n=38) (0.28%) and eyelid ptosis (n=6) (0.04%) were also diagnosed. Among the 614 (4.55%) children who were found to have refractive errors, 284 (46.25%) had hyperopia (hyperopia or hyperopic astigmatism), 206 (33.55%) had myopia (myopia or myopic astigmatism) and 124 (20.19%) showed mixed astigmatism. Conclusions: The study determined the local prevalence of amblyopia, refractive errors and eye disorders among preschool and schoolchildren.

rho(0) photoproduction in ultraperipheral relativistic heavy ion collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Photoproduction reactions occur when the electromagnetic field of a relativistic heavy ion interacts with another heavy ion. The STAR Collaboration presents a measurement of rho(0) and direct pi(+)pi(-) photoproduction in ultraperipheral relativistic heavy ion collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. We observe both exclusive photoproduction and photoproduction accompanied by mutual Coulomb excitation. We find a coherent cross section of sigma(AuAu -> Au*Au*rho(0)) = 530 +/- 19(stat.) +/- 57(syst.) mb, in accord with theoretical calculations based on a Glauber approach, but considerably below the predictions of a color dipole model. The rho 0 transverse momentum spectrum (p(T)(2)) is fit by a double exponential curve including both coherent and incoherent coupling to the target nucleus; we find sigma(inc)/sigma(coh) = 0.29 +/- 0.03 (stat.) +/- 0.08 (syst.). The ratio of direct pi(+)pi(-) to rho(0) production is comparable to that observed in gamma(p) collisions at HERA and appears to be independent of photon energy. Finally, the measured rho(0) spin helicity matrix elements agree within errors with the expected s-channel helicity conservation.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

Knowledge acquisition by networks of interacting agents in the presence of observation errors

In this work we investigate knowledge acquisition as performed by multiple agents interacting as they infer, under the presence of observation errors, respective models of a complex system. We focus the specific case in which, at each time step, each agent takes into account its current observation as well as the average of the models of its neighbors. The agents are connected by a network of interaction of Erdos-Renyi or Barabasi-Albert type. First, we investigate situations in which one of the agents has a different probability of observation error (higher or lower). It is shown that the influence of this special agent over the quality of the models inferred by the rest of the network can be substantial, varying linearly with the respective degree of the agent with different estimation error. In case the degree of this agent is taken as a respective fitness parameter, the effect of the different estimation error is even more pronounced, becoming superlinear. To complement our analysis, we provide the analytical solution of the overall performance of the system. We also investigate the knowledge acquisition dynamic when the agents are grouped into communities. We verify that the inclusion of edges between agents (within a community) having higher probability of observation error promotes the loss of quality in the estimation of the agents in the other communities.

The impact of measurement errors in the identification of regulatory networks

Background: There are several studies in the literature depicting measurement error in gene expression data and also, several others about regulatory network models. However, only a little fraction describes a combination of measurement error in mathematical regulatory networks and shows how to identify these networks under different rates of noise. Results: This article investigates the effects of measurement error on the estimation of the parameters in regulatory networks. Simulation studies indicate that, in both time series (dependent) and non-time series (independent) data, the measurement error strongly affects the estimated parameters of the regulatory network models, biasing them as predicted by the theory. Moreover, when testing the parameters of the regulatory network models, p-values computed by ignoring the measurement error are not reliable, since the rate of false positives are not controlled under the null hypothesis. In order to overcome these problems, we present an improved version of the Ordinary Least Square estimator in independent (regression models) and dependent (autoregressive models) data when the variables are subject to noises. Moreover, measurement error estimation procedures for microarrays are also described. Simulation results also show that both corrected methods perform better than the standard ones (i.e., ignoring measurement error). The proposed methodologies are illustrated using microarray data from lung cancer patients and mouse liver time series data. Conclusions: Measurement error dangerously affects the identification of regulatory network models, thus, they must be reduced or taken into account in order to avoid erroneous conclusions. This could be one of the reasons for high biological false positive rates identified in actual regulatory network models.

Building a Open Source Framework for Virtual Medical Training

This paper presents a framework to build medical training applications by using virtual reality and a tool that helps the class instantiation of this framework. The main purpose is to make easier the building of virtual reality applications in the medical training area, considering systems to simulate biopsy exams and make available deformation, collision detection, and stereoscopy functionalities. The instantiation of the classes allows quick implementation of the tools for such a purpose, thus reducing errors and offering low cost due to the use of open source tools. Using the instantiation tool, the process of building applications is fast and easy. Therefore, computer programmers can obtain an initial application and adapt it to their needs. This tool allows the user to include, delete, and edit parameters in the functionalities chosen as well as storing these parameters for future use. In order to verify the efficiency of the framework, some case studies are presented.

Antimicrobial drug administration errors identified in Brazilian multicentric study

Medication administration errors (MAE) are the most frequent kind of medication errors. Errors with antimicrobial drugs (AD) are relevant because they may interfere inpatient safety and in the development of microbial resistance. The aim of this study is to analyze the AD errors detected in a Brazilian multicentric study of MAE. It was a devcriptive and explorotory study carried out in clinical units in five Brazilian teaching hospitals. The hospitals were investigated during 30 days. MAE were detected by observation technique. MAE were classified in categories: wrong route(WR), wrong patient(WP), wrong dose(WD) wrong time (WT) and unordered drug (UD). AD with MA E were classified by Anatomical-Therapeutical-Chemical Classification System. AD with narrow therapeutic index (NTI) wet-e identified A descriptive statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 11.5 software. A total of 1500 errors were observed, 277 (18.5%) of them were error with AD. The hopes of AD error were: WT87.7%, QD 6.9%, WR 1.5%, UD 3.2% and WP 0.7%. The number of AD found was 36. The mostly ATC class were fluoroquinolones 13.9%, combinations of penicillin 13.9%, macrolides 8.3% and third-generation cephalosporines 5.6%. The parenteral drug dosage form was associated with 55.6% of AD. 16.7% of AD were NTI. 47.4% of WD and 21.8% WT were with NTI drugs. This study shows that these errors should be considered potential areas for improvement in the medication process and patient safety plus there is requirement to develop rational drug use of AD.

Offline Detection, Identification, and Correction of Branch Parameter Errors Based on Several Measurement Snapshots

This paper proposes a three-stage offline approach to detect, identify, and correct series and shunt branch parameter errors. In Stage 1 the branches suspected of having parameter errors are identified through an Identification Index (II). The II of a branch is the ratio between the number of measurements adjacent to that branch, whose normalized residuals are higher than a specified threshold value, and the total number of measurements adjacent to that branch. Using several measurement snapshots, in Stage 2 the suspicious parameters are estimated, in a simultaneous multiple-state-and-parameter estimation, via an augmented state and parameter estimator which increases the V - theta state vector for the inclusion of suspicious parameters. Stage 3 enables the validation of the estimation obtained in Stage 2, and is performed via a conventional weighted least squares estimator. Several simulation results (with IEEE bus systems) have demonstrated the reliability of the proposed approach to deal with single and multiple parameter errors in adjacent and non-adjacent branches, as well as in parallel transmission lines with series compensation. Finally the proposed approach is confirmed on tests performed on the Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie network.

Robot measuring form errors

This work presents an automated system for the measurement of form errors of mechanical components using an industrial robot. A three-probe error separation technique was employed to allow decoupling between the measured form error and errors introduced by the robotic system. A mathematical model of the measuring system was developed to provide inspection results by means of the solution of a system of linear equations. A new self-calibration procedure, which employs redundant data from several runs, minimizes the influence of probes zero-adjustment on the final result. Experimental tests applied to the measurement of straightness errors of mechanical components were accomplished and demonstrated the effectiveness of the employed methodology. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of radiology services based on the process management approach

The health sector requires continuous investments to ensure the improvement of products and services from a technological standpoint, the use of new materials, equipment and tools, and the application of process management methods. Methods associated with the process management approach, such as the development of reference models of business processes, can provide significant innovations in the health sector and respond to the current market trend for modern management in this sector (Gunderman et al. (2008) [4]). This article proposes a process model for diagnostic medical X-ray imaging, from which it derives a primary reference model and describes how this information leads to gains in quality and improvements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.