A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.

Retinal vascular function and cardiovascular risk factors

The current platform of conventional cardiovascular risk assessments tends to forsake the importance of endothelial function - a key biological mechanism by which cardiovascular risk factors exert their propensity for adverse vascular events. Moreover, the presence and severity of endothelial dysfunction in ‘low-risk’ individuals suggests considerable variability in pre-clinical risk that could potentially be detected well before the onset of disease. The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the presence and impact of retinal vascular dysfunction, as a barometer of endothelial function, in otherwise healthy individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, but low to moderate cardiovascular risk. Systemic circulatory influences on retinal vascular function were also evaluated. The principle sections and findings of this work are: 1. Ageing effect on retinal vascular function • In low-risk individuals, there are age differences in retinal vascular function throughout the entire functional response curve for arteries and veins. Gender differences mainly affect the dilatory phase and are only present in young individuals. 2. Retinal vascular function in healthy individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease • In low-risk individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease, impairments in microvascular function at the retinal level correlate with established plasma markers for cardiovascular risk. 3. Ethnic differences in retinal vascular function • When compared to age-matched White Europeans, in low-risk middle-aged South Asians, there are impairments in retinal vascular function that correlate with established cardiovascular risk indicators. 4. Systemic circulatory influences on retinalµvascular function • Systemic antioxidant capacity (redox index) and plasma markers for cardiovascular risk (lipids) influence retinal microvascular function at both arterial and venous levels. 5. Retinal vascular function in individuals with obstructive sleep apnoea: a preliminarystudy • Patients with moderate to severe sleep apnoea exhibit attenuated retinal vascular function.

Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra = Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary

Cikkünkben a magyar monetáris politikát vizsgáljuk olyan szempontból, hogy kamatdöntései meghozatalakor figyelembe vette-e az országkockázatot, és ha igen, hogyan. A kérdés megválaszolásához a monetáris politika elemzésének leggyakoribb eszközét használjuk: az ország monetáris politikáját leíró Taylor-szabályokat becslünk. A becslést több kockázati mérőszámmal is elvégeztük több, különféle Taylor-szabályt használva. Az érzékenységvizsgálatban az inflációhoz és a kibocsátási réshez is alkalmaztunk más, az alapspecifikációban szereplőtől eltérő mérőszámokat. Eredményeink szerint a Magyar Nemzeti Bank kamatdöntései jól leírhatók egy rugalmas, inflációs célkövető rezsimmel: a Taylor-szabályban szignifikáns szerepe van az inflációs céltól való eltérésének és - a szabályok egy része esetén - a kibocsátási résnek. Emellett a döntéshozók figyelembe vették az országkockázatot is, annak növekedésére a kamat emelésével válaszoltak. Az országkockázat Taylor-szabályba történő beillesztése a megfelelő kockázati mérőszám kiválasztása esetén jelentős mértékben képes javítani a Taylor-szabály illeszkedését. _____ The paper investigates the degree to which Hungarian monetary policy has considered country risk in its decisions and if so, how. The answer was sought through the commonest method of analysing a countrys monetary policy: Taylor rules for describing it. The estimation of the rule was prepared using several risk indicators and applying various types of Taylor rules. As a sensitivity analysis, other indicators of inflation and output gap were employed than in the base rule. This showed that the interest-rate decisions of the National Bank of Hungary can be well described by a flexible inflation targeting regime: in the Taylor rules, deviation of inflation from its target has a significant role and the output gap is also significant in one part of the rules. The decision-makers also considered country risk and responded to an increase in it by raising interest rates. Insertion of country risk into the Taylor rule could improve the models fit to an important degree when choosing an appropriate risk measure.

Case-control study of early childhood caries in Australia

The aim of this case-control study of 617 children was to investigate early childhood caries (ECC) risk indicators in a non-fluoridated region in Australia. ECC cases were recruited from childcare facilities, public hospitals and private specialist clinics to source children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. Non-ECC controls were recruited from the same childcare facilities. A multinomial logistic modelling approach was used for statistical analysis. The results showed that a large percentage of children tested positive for Streptococcus mutans if their mothers also tested positive. A common risk indicator found in ECC children from childcare facilities and public hospitals was visible plaque (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0-15.9, and OR 8.7, 95% CI 2.3-32.9, respectively). Compared to ECC-free controls, the risk indicators specific to childcare cases were enamel hypoplasia (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.0-18.3), difficulty in cleaning child's teeth (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.2-19.8), presence of S. mutans (OR 4.8, 95% CI 0.7-32.6), sweetened drinks (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.2-13.6) and maternal anxiety (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.1-25.0). Risk indicators specific to public hospital cases were S. mutans presence in child (OR 7.7, 95% CI 1.3-44.6) or mother (OR 8.1, 95% CI 0.9-72.4), ethnicity (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.4-22.1), and access of mother to pension or health care card (OR 20.5, 95% CI 3.5-119.9). By contrast, a history of chronic ear infections was found to be protective for ECC in childcare children (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.82). The biological, socioeconomic and maternal risk indicators demonstrated in the present study can be employed in models of ECC that can be usefully applied for future longitudinal studies.

Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Cumulative effects on the change of residual value in PPP projects: A comparative case study

Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.

A comparison of biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) management strategies in Ireland and the Czech Republic and the lessons learned

In order to meet the recycling and recovery targets set forth by the European Union's (EU) Waste and Landfill Directives, both the Irish and Czech governments’ policy on waste management is changing to meet these pressures, with major emphasis being placed upon the management of biodegradable municipal waste (BMW). In particular, the EU Landfill Directive requires reductions in the rate of BMW going to landfill to 35% of 1995 values by 2016 and 2020 for Ireland and the Czech Republic, respectively. In this paper, the strategies of how Ireland and the Czech Republic plan to meet this challenge are compared. Ireland either landfills or exports its waste for recovery, while the Czech Republic has a relatively new waste management infrastructure. While Ireland met the first target of 75% diversion of BMW from landfill by 2010 and preliminary 2012 data indicate that Ireland is on track to meet the 2013 target, the achievement of the 2016 target remains at risk. Indicators that were developed to monitor the Czech Republic's path to meeting the targets demonstrate that it did not meet the first target that was set for 2010 and will probably not meet its 2013 target either. The evaluation reports on the implementation of Waste Management Plan of Czech Republic suggest that the currently applied strategy to divert biodegradable waste from landfill is not effective enough. For both countries, the EU Waste Framework and Landfill Directives will be a significant influence and driver of change in waste management practices and governance over the coming decade. This means that both countries will not only have to invest in infrastructure to achieve the targets, but will also have to increase awareness among the public in diverting this waste at the household level. Improving environmental education is part of increased awareness as it is imperative for citizens to understand the consequences of their actions as affluence continues to grow producing increased levels of waste.

Graphical abstract
Despite the differences in the levels of waste generation in both the Czech Republic and Ireland, each country can learn from each other in order to meet the recycling and recovery targets set by the European Union's (EU) Waste and Landfill Directives. Both countries will not only have to invest in infrastructure to achieve the targets, but will also have to increase awareness among the public in diverting this waste at the household level. In addition, there needs to be minimum safe standards when land-spreading organic agricultural and organic municipal and industrial materials on agricultural land used for food production, as well as incentives to increase BMW diversion from landfill such as the increased landfill levy implemented in Ireland and the acceptance of MBT and/or incineration as a means of treating residual waste.

A multi-scale framework for strategic management of diffuse pollution

A multi-scale framework for decision support is presented that uses a combination of experiments, models, communication, education and decision support tools to arrive at a realistic strategy to minimise diffuse pollution. Effective partnerships between researchers and stakeholders play a key part in successful implementation of this strategy. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is introduced as a set of visualisations that can be used at all scales, both to inform decision making and as a communication tool in stakeholder workshops. A demonstration farm is presented and one of its fields is taken as a case study. Hydrological and nutrient flow path models are used for event based simulation (TOPCAT), catchment scale modelling (INCA) and field scale flow visualisation (TopManage). One of the DSMs; The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is discussed in detail. The PERM was developed iteratively as a point of discussion in stakeholder workshops, as a decision support and education tool. The resulting interactive PERM contains a set of questions and proposed remediation measures that reflect both expert and local knowledge. Education and visualisation tools such as GIS, risk indicators, TopManage and the PERM are found to be invaluable in communicating improved farming practice to stakeholders. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy compensation following consumption of sugar-reduced products: a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE: Consumption of sugar-reformulated products (commercially available foods and beverages that have been reduced in sugar content through reformulation) is a potential strategy for lowering sugar intake at a population level. The impact of sugar-reformulated products on body weight, energy balance (EB) dynamics and cardiovascular disease risk indicators has yet to be established. The REFORMulated foods (REFORM) study examined the impact of an 8-week sugar-reformulated product exchange on body weight, EB dynamics, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, glycemia and lipemia. METHODS: A randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover dietary intervention study was performed with fifty healthy normal to overweight men and women (age 32.0 ± 9.8 year, BMI 23.5 ± 3.0 kg/m2) who were randomly assigned to consume either regular sugar or sugar-reduced foods and beverages for 8 weeks, separated by 4-week washout period. Body weight, energy intake (EI), energy expenditure and vascular markers were assessed at baseline and after both interventions. RESULTS: We found that carbohydrate (P < 0.001), total sugars (P < 0.001) and non-milk extrinsic sugars (P < 0.001) (% EI) were lower, whereas fat (P = 0.001) and protein (P = 0.038) intakes (% EI) were higher on the sugar-reduced than the regular diet. No effects on body weight, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, fasting glycemia or lipemia were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of sugar-reduced products, as part of a blinded dietary exchange for an 8-week period, resulted in a significant reduction in sugar intake. Body weight did not change significantly, which we propose was due to energy compensation.

Efeitos da radiação ultravioleta b na expressão imunoistoquímica das metaloproteinases –2 e –9 em nevos melanocíticos

Introdução: a incidência dos melanomas permanece em ascensão em diversos países. Os nevos melanocíticos podem ser seus precursores ou marcadores de risco. A radiação ultravioleta é o principal fator de risco ambiental para o seu desenvolvimento. Estudos com nevos irradiados mostram que a radiação ultravioleta B (UVB) pode causar alterações morfológicas e bioquímicas semelhantes às de um melanoma in situ. As metaloproteinases da matriz (MMP) são enzimas proteolíticas e, particularmente, as MMP-2 e –9 (gelatinases A e B) parecem estar associadas à invasão tumoral, à formação de metástases e de neoangiogênese em melanomas. O objetivo do presente estudo é avaliar os efeitos da UVB nas expressões imunoistoquímicas de MMP-2 e –9 nas diferentes linhagens celulares de nevos melanocíticos. Métodos: quarenta e dois nevos melanocíticos tiveram suas metades irradiadas com dose de 2 DEM (dose eritematosa mínima) de UVB e foram excisados uma semana após. As expressões imunoistoquímicas das MMP-2 e -9 foram comparadas, quanto à sua intensidade, por três avaliadores diferentes entre os lados irradiados e não irradiados em queratinócitos, melanócitos de epiderme e derme superior, células endoteliais e fibroblastos. Os dados foram analisados pelo teste t pareado para as diferenças de expressão e pelo ICC para avaliação da homogeneidade entre as respostas dos observadores. Resultados: com relação à expressão imunoistoquímica de MMP-2, todas as linhagens celulares mostraram aumento no lado irradiado, especialmente os melanócitos epidérmicos. Quanto à MMP-9, somente nos queratinócitos, não se observou aumento de expressão do lado irradiado, ficando essa evidente nas demais linhagens celulares avaliadas. Conclusões: A UVB na dose de 2 DEM aumenta a expressão imunoistoquímica das MMP-2 e –9 em quase todas as linhagens celulares dos nevos melanocíticos avaliados até uma semana após a irradiação, com exceção feita queratinócitos, com a MMP-9.

Periodontal diseases in a representative urban population in south Brazil

Background and Aims: There is little information about the epidemiology and risk factors of periodontal diseases in Latin America in general, and Brazil in particular. The principal aims of this study were to: 1) describe the prevalence and severity of periodontal attachment loss and gingival recession, and to assess the contribution of demographic, behavioral, and environmental exposures to the occurrence of periodontal disease outcomes in a sample representative of the urban population in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in south Brazil; and 2) report the epidemiology and risk indicators of aggressive periodontitis in this population. Methods: A representative sample consisting of 1,586 subjects 14-103 years of age (mean 38 y) and comprising 45.3% males and 54.7% females was selected using a multi-stage, probability, cluster sampling strategy. The subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and underwent a full-mouth, six sites per tooth clinical examination in a mobile examination center. Results: Moderate and severe clinical attachment loss and gingival recession were widespread among adults in this population. The prevalence and extent of attachment loss ³5 and ³7 mm were 79% and 52% subjects, and 36% and 16% teeth; and for gingival recession ³3 mm and ³5 mm were 52% and 22% subjects, and 17% and 6% teeth, respectively. Aggressive periodontitis was diagnosed in 5.5% of subjects, which is significantly higher than the reported prevalence in most other populations. Among the main risk indicators for chronic as well as aggressive destructive periodontal diseases were: older age, low socioeconomic status, dental calculus, and smoking. Cigarette smoking accounted for an important part of periodontal disease burden, particularly in adults, and should be considered an important target in any prevention strategy aimed at reducing the burden of periodontal diseases. Partial recording methods consistently underestimated the prevalence of attachment loss in the population, and the extent of underestimation was dependent on the type of system used and the threshold of attachment loss. Conclusions: Destructive periodontal diseases are prevalent in this Brazilian population. Suitable disease prevention and health promotion programs should be established to improve the periodontal health in this population.

Avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crianças na rede básica de saúde utilizando o teste de Denver II: identificação de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Desigualdade de indicadores de mortalidade no Sudeste do Brasil

INTRODUÇÃO: Há indícios de que a deterioração das condições de trabalho ocorrida em anos recentes influencie a mortalidade. O objetivo do estudo é estimar indicadores de mortalidade para a população de Botucatu, classificada de acordo com as ocupações exercidas. MÉTODO: Foram calculados os indicadores coeficiente de mortalidade padronizado (CMP), razão de risco padronizada e anos potenciais de vida perdidos (APVP) para a população de Botucatu, em 1997, segundo ocupações e causas básicas do óbito. RESULTADOS: Os indicadores CMP e APVP variaram entre 0,6 e 39,9 óbitos/1000 trabalhadores e entre 33 e 334 anos/1000 trabalhadores, respectivamente, de acordo com a ocupação principal exercida. Observou-se que a ordenação quantitativa das causas de óbito depende da ocupação e do indicador utilizado. CONCLUSÕES: Os indicadores de mortalidade verificados apresentam uma grande heterogeneidade quando analisados de acordo com ocupação e causas básicas de óbito, refletindo a enorme desigualdade social existente na população estudada.