Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

Liquidity traps, capital flows

This paper explores the role of capital flows and exchange rate dynamics in shaping the global economy's adjustment in a liquidity trap. Using a multi-country model with nominal rigidities, we shed light on the global adjustment since the Great Recession, a period where many advanced economies were pushed to the zero bound on interest rates. We establish three main results: (i) When the North hits the zero bound, downstream capital flows alleviate the recession by reallocating demand to the South and switching expenditure toward North goods. (ii) A free capital flow regime falls short of supporting efficient demand and expenditure reallocations and induces too little downstream (upstream) flows during (after) the liquidity trap. (iii) When it comes to capital flow management, individual countries' incentives to manage their terms of trade conflict with aggregate demand stabilization and global efficiency. This underscores the importance of international policy coordination in liquidity trap episodes.

Previsão da estrutura a termo brasileira utilizando de fatores macroeconômicos

Este artigo estuda a previsão da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros brasileira utilizando de fatores comuns extraídos de uma vasta base de séries macroeconômicas. Os períodos para estimação e previsão compreendem o intervalo de Janeiro de 2000 a Maio de 2012. Foram empregas 171 séries mensais para a construção da base. Primeiramente foi implementado o modelo proposto por Moench (2008), no qual a dinâmica da taxa de juros de curto prazo é modelada através de um FAVAR e a estrutura a termo é derivada utilizando-se de restrições implicadas por não arbitragem. A escolha pela adoção deste modelo se deve aos resultados obtidos no estudo original, nos quais tal modelagem apresentou melhor desempenho preditivo para horizontes intermediários e longos quando comparado com benchmarks usuais. Contudo, tais resultados também apresentaram uma deterioração progressiva à medida que as maturidades aumentam, evidenciando uma possível inadequação do modelo para as partes intermediária e longa da curva. A implementação deste modelo para a estrutura a termo brasileira levou a resultados muito similares ao do estudo original. Visando contornar a deterioração mencionada, foi proposta uma modelagem alternativa na qual a dinâmica de cada taxa é modelada conjuntamente com os fatores macroeconômicos, eliminando-se as restrições implicadas por não arbitragem. Tal modelagem proporcionou resultados de previsão amplamente superiores e através dela foi possível confirmar a inadequação descrita. Por fim, também foi realizada a inserção dos fatores macro na dinâmica dos fatores beta do modelo de Diebold e Li (2006), levando a um grande ganho de capacidade preditiva, principalmente para horizontes maiores de previsão.

Do options contain information about excess bond returns ?

There is strong empirical evidence that risk premia in long-term interest rates are time-varying. These risk premia critically depend on interest rate volatility, yet existing research has not examined the im- pact of time-varying volatility on excess returns for long-term bonds. To address this issue, we incorporate interest rate option prices, which are very sensitive to interest rate volatility, into a dynamic model for the term structure of interest rates. We estimate three-factor affine term structure models using both swap rates and interest rate cap prices. When we incorporate option prices, the model better captures interest rate volatility and is better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that interest rate options contain valuable infor- mation about risk premia and interest rate dynamics that cannot be extracted from interest rates alone.

The Brazilian foreign exchange market through the microstructure perspective

The objective of this study is to investigate whether the relationship between order ow and the spot exchange rate stems from the fact that the ow aggregates information on dispersed economic fundamentals in the economy. To perform this test, a database that includes all transactions of the commercial and nancial segments of the Brazilian primary foreign exchange market between January of 1999 and May of 2008 was used. We show that the order ow was partly responsible for variations in in ation expectations over the time period and that this relationship did not remain robust, drawing comparisons with other fundamentals such as GDP and Industrial Production.

Risk evaluation of diabetes mellitus by relation of chaotic globals to HRV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of third-generation oral contraceptives on the complexity analysis and symbolic dynamics of heart rate variability

Objective To evaluate the influence of oral contraceptives (OCs) containing 20 mu mu g ethinylestradiol (EE) and 150 mu mu g gestodene (GEST) on the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) in women. Methods One-hundred and fifty-five women aged 24 +/-+/- 2 years were divided into four groups according to their physical activity and the use or not of an OC: active-OC, active-non-OC (NOC), sedentary-OC, and sedentary-NOC. The heart rate was registered in real time based on the electrocardiogram signal for 15 minutes, in the supine-position. The heart rate variability (HRV) was analysed using Shannon`s entropy (SE), conditional entropy (complexity index [CInd] and normalised CInd [NCI]), and symbolic analysis (0V%, 1V%, 2LV%, and 2ULV%). For statistical analysis the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post hoc and the Wilcoxon test (p < 0.05 was considered significant) were applied. Results Treatment with this COC caused no significant changes in SE, CInd, NCI, or symbolic analysis in either active or sedentary groups. Active groups presented higher values for SE and 2ULV%, and lower values for 0V% when compared to sedentary groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion HRV patterns differed depending on life style; the non-linear method applied was highly reliable for identifying these changes. The use of OCs containing 20 mu mu g EE and 150 mu mu g GEST does not influence HR autonomic modulation.

Dynamics of chest wall volume regulation during constant work rate exercise in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This study evaluated the dynamic behavior of total and compartmental chest wall volumes [(V CW) = rib cage (V RC) + abdomen (V AB)] as measured breath-by-breath by optoelectronic plethysmography during constant-load exercise in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Thirty males (GOLD stages II-III) underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test to the limit of tolerance (Tlim) at 75% of peak work rate on an electronically braked cycle ergometer. Exercise-induced dynamic hyperinflation was considered to be present when end-expiratory (EE) V CW increased in relation to resting values. There was a noticeable heterogeneity in the patterns of V CW regulation as EEV CW increased non-linearly in 17/30 "hyperinflators" and decreased in 13/30 "non-hyperinflators" (P < 0.05). EEV AB decreased slightly in 8 of the "hyperinflators", thereby reducing and slowing the rate of increase in end-inspiratory (EI) V CW (P < 0.05). In contrast, decreases in EEV CW in the "non-hyperinflators" were due to the combination of stable EEV RC with marked reductions in EEV AB. These patients showed lower EIV CW and end-exercise dyspnea scores but longer Tlim than their counterparts (P < 0.05). Dyspnea increased and Tlim decreased non-linearly with a faster rate of increase in EIV CW regardless of the presence or absence of dynamic hyperinflation (P < 0.001). However, no significant between-group differences were observed in metabolic, pulmonary gas exchange and cardiovascular responses to exercise. Chest wall volumes are continuously regulated during exercise in order to postpone (or even avoid) their migration to higher operating volumes in patients with COPD, a dynamic process that is strongly dependent on the behavior of the abdominal compartment.

Fractal dynamics of heart rate variability for short term

The fractal analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has been associated to the chaos theory. We evaluated the association of the fractal exponents of HRV with the time and frequency domain and geometric indices of HRV for short period. HRV was analyzed with a minimal number of 256 RR intervals in the time (SDNN-standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals, pNN50-percentage of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms and RMSSD-root-mean square of differences between adjacent normal RR intervals in a time interval) and frequency (LF-low frequency, HF-high frequency and LF/HF ratio) domains. The geometric indexes were also analyzed (RRtri-triangular index, TINN-triangular interpolation of RR intervals and Poincaré plot) as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We observed strong correlation of the alpha-1 exponent with RMSSD, pNN50, SDNN/RMSSD, LF (nu), HF (nu), LF/HF ratio, SD1 and SD1/Sd2 ratio. In conclusion, we suggest that the alpha-1 exponent could be applied for HRV analysis with a minimal number of 256 RR intervals.

The Influence of Baseline Metabolic Rate and Exercise Training on Cardio-Respiratory Dynamics

Speeding the VO2 kinetics results in a reduction of the O2 deficit. Two factors might determine VO2 kinetics: oxygen delivery to muscle (Tschakovsky and Hughson 1999) and a muscle 'metabolic inertia' (Grassi et al. 1996). Therefore, in study 1 we investigated VO2 kinetics and cardiovascular system adaptations during step exercise transitions in different regions of the moderate domain. In study 2 we investigated muscle oxygenation and cardio-pulmonary adaptations during step exercise tests before, after and over a period of training. Study 1 methods: Seven subjects (26 ± 8 yr; 176 ± 5 cm; 69 ± 6 kg) performed 4 types of step transition from rest (0-50W; 0-100W) or elevate baseline (25-75W; 25-125W). GET and VO2max were assessed before testing. O2 uptake and were measured during testing. Study 2 methods: 10 subjects (25 ± 4 yr; 175 ± 9 cm; 71 ± 12 kg) performed a step transition test (0 to 100 W) before, after and during 4 weeks of endurance training (ET). VO2max and GET were assessed before and after of ET (40 minutes, 3 times a week, 60% O2max). VO2 uptake, Q and deoxyheamoglobin were measured during testing. Study 1 results: VO2 τ and the functional gain were slower in the upper regions of the moderate domain. Q increased more abruptly during rest to work condition. Q τ was faster than VO2 τ for each exercise step. Study 2 results: VO2 τ became faster after ET (25%) and particularly after 1 training session (4%). Q kinetics changed after 4 training sessions nevertheless it was always faster than VO2 τ. An attenuation in ∆[HHb] /∆VO2 was detectible. Conclusion: these investigations suggest that muscle fibres recruitment exerts a influence on the VO2 response within the moderate domain either during different forms of step transition or following ET.

Transposable elements dynamics in taxa with different reproductive strategies or speciation rate

In recent years the advances in genomics allowed to understand the importance of Transposable Elements (TE) in the evolution of eukaryotic genomes. In this thesis I face two aspects of the TE impact on the in the animal kingdom. The first part is a comparison of the dynamics of the TE dynamics in three species of stick-insects of the Genus Bacillus. I produced three random genomic libraries of 200 Kbps for the three parental species of the taxon: a gonochoric population of Bacillus rossius (facultative parthenogenetic), Bacillus grandii (gonochoric) and Bacillus atticus (obligate parthenogenetic). The unisexual taxon Bacillus atticus does not shows dramatic differences in TE total content and activity with respect to Bacillus grandii and Bacillus rossius. This datum does not confirm the trend observed in other animal models in which unisexual taxa tend to repress the activity of TE to escape the extinction by accumulation of harmful mutations. In the second part I tried to add a contribute to the debate initiated in recent years about the possibility that a high TE content is linked to a high rate of speciation. I designed an evolutionary framework to establish the different rate of speciation among two or more taxa, then I compared TE dynamics considering the different rates of speciation. The species dataset comprises: 29 mammals, four birds, two fish and two insects. On the whole the majority of comparisons confirms the expected trend. In particular the amount of species analyzed in Mammalia allowed me to get a statistical support (p<0,05) of the fact that the TE activity of recently mobilized elements is positively related with the rate of speciation.

Symbolic Dynamics Analysis: a new methodology for foetal heart rate variability analysis

Cardiotocography (CTG) is a widespread foetal diagnostic methods. However, it lacks of objectivity and reproducibility since its dependence on observer's expertise. To overcome these limitations, more objective methods for CTG interpretation have been proposed. In particular, many developed techniques aim to assess the foetal heart rate variability (FHRV). Among them, some methodologies from nonlinear systems theory have been applied to the study of FHRV. All the techniques have proved to be helpful in specific cases. Nevertheless, none of them is more reliable than the others. Therefore, an in-depth study is necessary. The aim of this work is to deepen the FHRV analysis through the Symbolic Dynamics Analysis (SDA), a nonlinear technique already successfully employed for HRV analysis. Thanks to its simplicity of interpretation, it could be a useful tool for clinicians. We performed a literature study involving about 200 references on HRV and FHRV analysis; approximately 100 works were focused on non-linear techniques. Then, in order to compare linear and non-linear methods, we carried out a multiparametric study. 580 antepartum recordings of healthy fetuses were examined. Signals were processed using an updated software for CTG analysis and a new developed software for generating simulated CTG traces. Finally, statistical tests and regression analyses were carried out for estimating relationships among extracted indexes and other clinical information. Results confirm that none of the employed techniques is more reliable than the others. Moreover, in agreement with the literature, each analysis should take into account two relevant parameters, the foetal status and the week of gestation. Regarding the SDA, results show its promising capabilities in FHRV analysis. It allows recognizing foetal status, gestation week and global variability of FHR signals, even better than other methods. Nevertheless, further studies, which should involve even pathological cases, are necessary to establish its reliability.

Exotic dynamics in a firing rate model of neural tissue with threshold accommodation

Many of the equations describing the dynamics of neural systems are written in terms of firing rate functions, which themselves are often taken to be threshold functions of synaptic activity. Dating back to work by Hill in 1936 it has been recognized that more realistic models of neural tissue can be obtained with the introduction of state-dependent dynamic thresholds. In this paper we treat a specific phenomenological model of threshold accommodation that mimics many of the properties originally described by Hill. Importantly we explore the consequences of this dynamic threshold at the tissue level, by modifying a standard neural field model of Wilson-Cowan type. As in the case without threshold accommodation classical Mexican-Hat connectivity is shown to allow for the existence of spatially localized states (bumps) in both one and two dimensions. Importantly an analysis of bump stability in one dimension, using recent Evans function techniques, shows that bumps may undergo instabilities leading to the emergence of both breathers and traveling waves. Moreover, a similar analysis for traveling pulses leads to the conditions necessary to observe a stable traveling breather. In the regime where a bump solution does not exist direct numerical simulations show the possibility of self-replicating bumps via a form of bump splitting. Simulations in two space dimensions show analogous localized and traveling solutions to those seen in one dimension. Indeed dynamical behavior in this neural model appears reminiscent of that seen in other dissipative systems that support localized structures, and in particular those of coupled cubic complex Ginzburg-Landau equations. Further numerical explorations illustrate that the traveling pulses in this model exhibit particle like properties, similar to those of dispersive solitons observed in some three component reaction-diffusion systems. A preliminary account of this work first appeared in S Coombes and M R Owen, Bumps, breathers, and waves in a neural network with spike frequency adaptation, Physical Review Letters 94 (2005), 148102(1-4).