La influencia de la deforestación del cerrado brasileño en el cultivo de granos y las consecuencias de la pérdida del suelo en la región de la reserva cachoeira dourada : Brasil central-occidental

El índice de erosividad (EI30) y su espacialización fueron determinados para las cuencas de contribución del sistema hidroeléctrico de la reserva Cachoeira Dourada, localizada entre los Estados de Goias y Minas Gerais, limitada por las coordenadas 640000-760000 m W. y 7910000-7975000 m S. UTM zona 22, Datum Córrego Alegre. Se trataron los datos del promedio mensual y anual de las precipitaciones correspondientes a ocho localidades para un periodo de treinta años. Existe una distribución irregular de precipitación en la región y en consecuencia una espacialización no uniforme de los índices de erosión en el área de influencia de la reserva. Los valores más altos de precipitación coinciden con el periodo de preparación de la tierra para el cultivo y el desarrollo de las plantas de ciclo anual, principalmente soja y maíz.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Análise espacial dos fatores da equação universal de perda de solo em área de nascentes

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a perda de solo de área de nascentes da Microbacia do Córrego do Tijuco, SP. Foi utilizada a análise espacial dos fatores da equação universal da perda de solo (EUPS), em integração com análise de componentes principais e geoestatística. A perda de solo média, estimada para a área, foi de 118,5 Mg ha‑1 por ano, considerada alta. Próximo à zona urbana, houve alta interação dos fatores erosividade da chuva e práticas conservacionistas, o que evidencia grande perda de solo, em razão da concentração da água proveniente da camada impermeabilizada urbana, com alta velocidade de escoamento. Nos divisores de águas, a atuação da erodibilidade foi proeminente, em contraste com o fator topográfico. Foram observadas áreas com atuação conjunta destes fatores, inclusive em locais de inclinação suave, porém com alto potencial natural de erosão. A interação das análises multivariadas e geoestatística permite a estratificação da área, identifica locais com propriedades específicas quanto à perda de solo, e espacializa os fatores do processo erosivo e suas interações ao longo do relevo.

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

Proposição e validações de equações para estimativa da erosividade de dois municípios do estado de São Paulo

The equations and extrapolation use to localities whose characteristics of soil and climate, even if partial, distinguish the town to which they were generated, still permeate in studies to estimate the rainfall erosivity (EI 30). This work has objective to propose and validate mathematical equations to estimate the rainfall erosivity of two cities of Sao Paulo State's. The adjusted to estimate obtaining and validate data of equations of erosivity (EI 30) according to values of coefficient of rain (Rc) were obtained from pluviographic and pluviometric rainfall data, respectively, using of distinct historical rainfall series. Mutiple comparisions test and confidence intervals were performed to compare absolute average of EI 30, pluviometric data (Pp), and Rc. The correlation between EI 30 and Rc was verified by of Pearson correlation coefficient. Test of the hypothesis of equality between population variance was used to compare the equations. Pluviometrics data of historical series rainfall data different than those that the models were generated were used to validate and to assess the performance of the equations, proposed of this study and compare them with another equation already consolidated in literature. The results show that for the conditions under which the study was conducted, the simple linear equations, shown to be the most appropriate to estimate the rainfall erosivity these two cities. According to the test of the hypothesis of equality variances between populations, the equations adjusted for each city differ statistically so that the rainfall erosivity of each city must be estimated by their respective equation.

Perda de solo em área de nascentes caracterizada por análise multivariada e modelos de geoestatística

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geotecnologias aplicadas à estimativa de perdas de solo por erosão hídrica na sub-bacia do Ribeirão das Perobas, Município de Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Erosividade das chuvas na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Apeú, região nordeste do estado do Pará

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Agricultura) - FCA

Parâmetros de erosividade da chuva e da enxurrada correlacionados com perdas de solo e erodibilidade de um Latossolo Roxo de Dourados (MS)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetros erosividade da chuva e da enxurrada correlacionados com as perdas de solo de um solo Bruno Não-Cálcico Vértico em Sumé (PB)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetros erosividade da chuva, da enxurrada e da chuva-enxurrada correlacionados com as perdas de solo de um luvissolo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo de parâmetros climáticos como subsídio à gestão ambiental da vertente paranaense da bacia hidrográfica do rio Itararé

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Role of Hydrological Process Representation on Erosion, Deposition, and Sediment Yield Estimate

Soil erosion by water is a major driven force causing land degradation. Laboratory experiments, on-site field study, and suspended sediments measurements were major fundamental approaches to study the mechanisms of soil water erosion and to quantify the erosive losses during rain events. The experimental research faces the challenge to extent the result to a wider spatial scale. Soil water erosion modeling provides possible solutions for scaling problems in erosion research, and is of principal importance to better understanding the governing processes of water erosion. However, soil water erosion models were considered to have limited value in practice. Uncertainties in hydrological simulations are among the reasons that hindering the development of water erosion model. Hydrological models gained substantial improvement recently and several water erosion models took advantages of the improvement of hydrological models. It is crucial to know the impact of changes in hydrological processes modeling on soil erosion simulation.

This dissertation work first created an erosion modeling tool (GEOtopSed) that takes advantage of the comprehensive hydrological model (GEOtop). The newly created tool was then tested and evaluated at an experimental watershed. The GEOtopSed model showed its ability to estimate multi-year soil erosion rate with varied hydrological conditions. To investigate the impact of different hydrological representations on soil erosion simulation, a 11-year simulation experiment was conducted for six models with varied configurations. The results were compared at varied temporal and spatial scales to highlight the roles of hydrological feedbacks on erosion. Models with simplified hydrological representations showed agreement with GEOtopSed model on long temporal scale (longer than annual). This result led to an investigation for erosion simulation at different rainfall regimes to check whether models with different hydrological representations have agreement on the soil water erosion responses to the changing climate. Multi-year ensemble simulations with different extreme precipitation scenarios were conducted at seven climate regions. The differences in erosion simulation results showed the influences of hydrological feedbacks which cannot be seen by purely rainfall erosivity method.

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.