Általános egyensúlyi modellek alkalmazása gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre (Application of general equilibrium models to economic policy analyses)

A szerző az alkalmazott többszektoros modellezés területén a lineáris programozási modellektől a számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modellekig végbement változásokat tekinti át. Egy rövid történeti visszapillantás után a lineáris programozás módszereire épülő nemzetgazdasági szintű modellekkel összevetve mutatja be az általános egyensúlyi modellek közös, illetve eltérő jellemzőit. Egyidejűleg azt is érzékelteti, hogyan lehet az általános egyensúlyi modelleket a gazdaságpolitikai célok konzisztenciájának, a célok közötti átváltási lehetőségek elemzésére és általában a gazdaságpolitikai elképzelések érzékenységi vizsgálatára felhasználni. A szerző az elméleti-módszertani kérdések taglalását számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modell segítségével illusztrálja. _______ The author surveys the changes having taken place in the field of multi-sector modeling, from the linear programming models to the quantified general equilibrium models. After a brief historical retrospection he presents the common and different characteristic features of the general equilibrium models by comparing them with the national economic level models based on the methods of linear programming. He also makes clear how the general equilibrium models can be used for analysing the consistency of economic policy targets, for the investigation of trade-off possibilities among the targets and, in general, for sensitivity analyses of economic policy targets. The discussion of theoretical and methodological quuestions is illustrated by the author with the aid of a quantified general equilibrium model.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from participatory based approaches such as community hazard mapping and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques, to analyze the impact of climate change and the behavior of affected communities and households.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further complicated by the prospect of dealing with a confluence of hazards in comparison with those in other ecosystems. Against this backdrop Worldfish and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) collaborated to implement the cross-country study “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam”. As its title suggests the study covered selected sites in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Employing a gamut of interdisciplinary methodologies -- ranging from community-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and focus group discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques -- the study documented the impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities. These were typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The team also analyzed planned adaptation options suited to implementation by communities and local governments, augmenting autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards.

Techno-economic analysis of production and marketing of marine by-products in India

Marine by-products coming under the ancillary products group found many applications in pharmaceutical and industrial sectors. Although many of these products are fetching very high price at the export market, adequate statistics regarding their current production, marketing and utilisation is lacking. The present analysis deals with the production potential, level of exploitation, uses, export growth rate and potential for the future of some of these marine by-products. The analysis revealed that an estimated quantity of 205 t. of shells, 10 t. of gastropod operculum, 4,932 t. of shark liver oil and 4,384 t. of shark cartilage could be produced annually in India with the current landings. The production potential of chitin is estimated as 3,560 t. from shrimp shell wastes and 1,354 t. from crab shell wastes. The high unit value of different products clearly indicates the scope for their development by evolving appropriate utilisation and marketing strategies.

Comparative economic analysis of pond fish production in Mymensingh and Jessore Districts, Bangladesh

The study was conducted to determine the cost, return and relative profitability of pond fish production of Mymensingh and Jessore districts. A total of 75 ponds were selected on the basis of purposive random sampling technique from 7 villages under 2 Upazila (Trishal and Gouripur) of Mymensingh districts and 8 villages under 4 Upazila (Monimmpur, Jhikorgacha, Chowgacha and Sadar) of Jessore district. It was found that per hectare per year gross cost of pond fish production in Mymensingh and Jessore were Tk 333457.75 and Tk 54327.74, while gross return were Tk 434131.16 and Tk. 96640.00 and net return were Tk 100673.41 and Tk. 42312.26, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that the pond fish production in Jessore district was more profitable than that of Mymensingh district. Cobb-Douglas production function was applied to realize the specific effect of the factors on pond fish production. Out of six variables included in the function three variables had positive impact on return from pond fish production, in Mymensingh district but five variables had positive impact on return from pond fish production in Jessore district

Economic analysis of 22m and 23m deep sea trawlers

The cost-benefit analysis of 23m and 22m trawlers operated from Visakhapatnam base is presented. The study indicated that the deep sea fishing in Indian waters is a profitable venture. The profit over capital investment for a 23m trawler worked out to about 18% whereas the same was about 10% for a 22m trawler. Catch per trawling operation, cost of production, productivity per man year, energy yield etc. establish the economic superiority of 23m vessel.

Biosecurity in agriculture: an economic analysis of coexistence of professional and hobby production

One component of biosecurity is protection against invasive alien species, which are one of the most important threats worldwide to native biodiversity and economic profitability in various sectors, including agriculture. However, agricultural producers are not homogeneous. They may have different objectives and priorities, use different technologies, and occupy heterogeneous parcels of land. If the producers differ in terms of their attitude towards invasive pests and the damages they cause, there are probably external effects in the form of pest spread impacts and subsequent damages caused. We study such impacts in the case of two producer types: profit-seeking professional producers and utility-seeking hobby producers. We show that the hobby producer, having first set a breeding ground for the pest, under-invests in pest control. We also discuss potential policy instruments to correct this market failure and highlight the importance of considering different stakeholders and their heterogeneous incentives when designing policies to control invasive alien species.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS of AMAZON RIVER PRAWN FARMING TO THE MARKETS FOR LIVE BAIT and JUVENILES IN PANTANAL, BRAZIL

The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.

Economic analysis of cucumber and lettuce intercropping under greenhouse in the winter-spring

A análise econômica complementa a avaliação da eficiência dos cultivos consorciados, considerando além da produção física das culturas, o preço dos produtos segundo sua classificação qualitativa e época do ano. Avaliou-se economicamente consórcios de alface crespa e pepino, em duas populações de plantas, no inverno-primavera, em casa de vegetação, em Jaboticabal, SP, Brasil. Foram calculados o custo operacional total (COT), a receita bruta (RB) e o lucro operacional (LO) das culturas do pepino e alface em monocultura e em consórcio. A mão-de-obra foi a componente com maior participação no COT das culturas em consórcio e monocultura. Maiores RB e LO foram observadas nos cultivos consorciados estabelecidos com o transplante da alface e do pepino no mesmo dia, independente da densidade populacional. Considerando-se o lucro operacional e o índice de uso eficiente da área, recomenda-se o cultivo consorciado com transplante da alface até 10 dias após o transplante (DAT) do pepino, com duas linhas, e ao 0 DAT do pepino cultivado com uma linha no canteiro

Performance, carcass traits, meat quality and economic analysis of feedlot of young bulls fed oilseeds with and without supplementation of vitamin E

The objective of this research was to evaluate average daily gain (ADG), carcass traits, meat tenderness and profitability of keeping cattle fed different oilseeds and vitamin E in feedlot. A total of 40 Red Norte young bulls with initial average body weight of 339±15 kg were utilized. The experimental design was completely randomized in a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement. The experiment lasted 84 days and experimental diets presented soybeans or cottonseeds as lipid sources associated or not to daily supplementation of 2,500 UI vitamin E per animal. The concentrate:roughage ratio was 60:40. Diets had the same amount of nitrogen (13% CP) and ether extract (6.5%). The data were analyzed by means of statistical software SAS 9.1. Neither vitamin supplementation nor lipid source affected ADG. There was no interaction between lipid source and vitamin supplementation for the variables studied. The inclusion of cottonseed reduced the carcass yield. There was no effect of diets on hot and cold carcass weights or prime cuts. The inclusion of cottonseed reduced the backfat thickness. No effect of experimental diets on the rib-eye area was observed. There was no effect of lipid source or vitamin supplementation on meat tenderness, which was affected, however, by ageing time. Diets with soybeans presented higher cost per animal. The utilization of soybean implied reduction of the gross margin (R$ 59.17 and R$ 60.51 for diets based on soy with and without supplemental vitamin, respectively, vs. R$ 176.42 and R$ 131.79 for diets based on cottonseed). The utilization of cottonseed enables improvement of profitability of feedlot fattening, in spite of negatively affecting some carcass characteristics.

Simulation and economic analysis of bovine sex selection

A simulation model implemented in the programming software Delphi XE® was applied to evaluate sex selection in bovine. The hypothesis under investigation was that a dynamic model with stochastic and deterministic elements could detect the sexed semen technique to minimize pregnancy cost and to determine the adequate number of recipients required for in vivo (ET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) in the proposed scenarios. Sex selection was compared through semen sexed using flow cytometry (C1) and density gradient centrifugation techniques (C2) in ET and IVP. Sensibility analyses were used to identify the adequate number of recipients for each scenario. This number was reinserted into the model to determine the biological and financial values that maximized ET and IVP using sexed semen (C1M and C2M). New scenarios showed that the density gradient technique minimized pregnancy cost based on the proposed scenarios. In addition, the adequate number of recipients (ET - C1M - 115 and C2M - 105)/(IVP - C1M - 145 and C2M - 140) per donor used was determined to minimize the pregnancy cost in all scenarios.