Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

Factores asociados a mortalidad en pacientes colombianos con enfermedades autoinmunes en la unidad de cuidado intensivo, de un hospital de tercer nivel en Bogotá Colombia

Antecedentes: El interés en las enfermedades autoinmunes (EA) y su desenlace en la unidad de cuidado intensivo (UCI) han incrementado debido al reto clínico que suponen para el diagnóstico y manejo, debido a que la mortalidad en UCI fluctúa entre el 17 – 55 %. El siguiente trabajo representa la experiencia de un año de nuestro grupo en un hospital de tercer nivel. Objetivo: Identificar factores asociados a mortalidad particulares de los pacientes con enfermedades autoinmunes que ingresan a una UCI, de un hospital de tercer nivel en Bogotá, Colombia. Métodos: El uso de análisis de componentes principales basado en el método descriptivo multivariado y análisis de múltiple correspondencia fue realizado para agrupar varias variables relacionadas con asociación significativa y contexto clínico común. Resultados: Cincuenta pacientes adultos con EA con una edad promedio de 46,7 ± 17,55 años fueron evaluados. Los dos diagnósticos más comunes fueron lupus eritematoso sistémico y esclerosis sistémica, con una frecuencia de 45% y 20% de los pacientes respectivamente. La principal causa de admisión en la UCI fue la infección seguido de actividad aguda de la EA, 36% y 24% respectivamente. La mortalidad durante la estancia en UCI fue del 24%. El tiempo de hospitalización antes de la admisión a la UCI, el choque, soporte vasopresor, ventilación mecánica, sepsis abdominal, Glasgow bajo y plasmaféresis fueron factores asociados con mortalidad. Dos fenotipos de variables fueron definidos relacionadas con tiempo en la UCI y medidas de soporte en UCI, las cuales fueron asociadas supervivencia y mortalidad. Conclusiones: La identificación de factores individuales y grupos de factores por medio del análisis de componentes principales permitirá la implementación de medidas terapéutica de manera temprana y agresiva en pacientes con EA en la UCI para evitar desenlaces fatales.

Evaluación de intervención de alertas para riesgo cardiovascular por diclofenaco en afiliados al régimen contributivo 2014 -2015

El objetivo fue evaluar la intervención de las alertas en la prescripción de diclofenaco. Estudio observacional, comparativo, post intervención, de un antes después, en pacientes con prescripción de diclofenaco. Se evaluó la intervención de las alertas restrictivas antes y después de su implementación en los pacientes prescritos con diclofenaco y que tenían asociado un diagnóstico de riesgo cardiovascular según CIE 10 o eran mayores de 65 años. Un total de 315.135 transacciones con prescripción de diclofenaco, en 49.355 pacientes promedio mes. El 94,8% (298.674) de las transacciones fueron prescritas por médicos generales.

Iterative Methods for Equality-Constrained Least Squares Problems

We consider the linear equality-constrained least squares problem (LSE) of minimizing ${\|c - Gx\|}_2 $, subject to the constraint $Ex = p$. A preconditioned conjugate gradient method is applied to the Kuhn–Tucker equations associated with the LSE problem. We show that our method is well suited for structural optimization problems in reliability analysis and optimal design. Numerical tests are performed on an Alliant FX/8 multiprocessor and a Cray-X-MP using some practical structural analysis data.

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

INTAMAP: an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a web processing service for the automatic interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the open geospatial consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an open source solution. The system couples the 52-North web processing service, accepting data in the form of an observations and measurements (O&M) document with a computing back-end realized in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a new markup language to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropies and extreme values. In the light of the INTAMAP experience, we discuss the lessons learnt.

INTAMAP: the design and implementation of an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a Web Processing Service for the automatic spatial interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an integrated, open source solution. The system couples an open-source Web Processing Service (developed by 52°North), accepting data in the form of standardised XML documents (conforming to the OGC Observations and Measurements standard) with a computing back-end realised in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a markup language designed to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropy, extreme values, and data with known error distributions. Besides a fully automatic mode, the system can be used with different levels of user control over the interpolation process.

Em Algorithm for MLE of a Probit Model for Multiple Ordinal Outcomes

The correlated probit model is frequently used for multiple ordered data since it allows to incorporate seamlessly different correlation structures. The estimation of the probit model parameters based on direct maximization of the limited information maximum likelihood is a numerically intensive procedure. We propose an extension of the EM algorithm for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates for a correlated probit model for multiple ordinal outcomes. The algorithm is implemented in the free software environment for statistical computing and graphics R. We present two simulation studies to examine the performance of the developed algorithm. We apply the model to data on 121 women with cervical or endometrial cancer. Patients developed normal tissue reactions as a result of post-operative external beam pelvic radiotherapy. In this work we focused on modeling the effects of a genetic factor on early skin and early urogenital tissue reactions and on assessing the strength of association between the two types of reactions. We established that there was an association between skin reactions and polymorphism XRCC3 codon 241 (C>T) (rs861539) and that skin and urogenital reactions were positively correlated. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.3.

Implementation of the EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Random Effects Model for One Longitudinal Ordinal Outcome

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J99.

Strontium isotopes and sedimentology of a marine Triassic succession (upper Ladinian) of the westernmost Tethys, Spain

Chemical Stratigraphy, or the study of the variation of chemical elements within sedimentary sequences, has gradually become an experienced tool in the research and correlation of global geologic events. In this paper 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios of the Triassic marine carbonates (Muschelkalk facies) of southeast Iberian Ranges, Iberian Peninsula, are presented and the representative Sr-isotopic curve constructed for the upper Ladinian interval. The studied stratigraphic succession is 102 meters thick, continuous, and well preserved. Previous paleontological data from macro and micro, ammonites, bivalves, foraminifera, conodonts and palynological assemblages, suggest a Fassanian-Longobardian age (Late Ladinian). Although diagenetic minerals are present in small amounts, the elemental data content of bulk carbonate samples, especially Sr contents, show a major variation that probably reflects palaeoenvironmental changes. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios curve shows a rise from 0.707649 near the base of the section to 0.707741 and then declines rapidly to 0.707624, with a final values rise up to 0.70787 in the upper part. The data up to meter 80 in the studied succession is broadly concurrent with 87Sr/86Sr ratios of sequences of similar age and complements these data. Moreover, the sequence stratigraphic framework and its key surfaces, which are difficult to be recognised just based in the facies analysis, are characterised by combining variations of the Ca, Mg, Mn, Sr and CaCO3 contents

Performance of protective factors assessment in risk prediction for adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

Protective factors are neglected in risk assessment in adult psychiatric and criminal justice populations. This review investigated the predictive efficacy of selected tools that assess protective factors. Five databases were searched using comprehensive terms for records up to June 2014, resulting in 17 studies (n = 2,198). Results were combined in a multilevel meta-analysis using the R (R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015) metafor package (Viechtbauer, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, 36, 1). Prediction of outcomes was poor relative to a reference category of violent offending, with the exception of prediction of discharge from secure units. There were no significant differences between the predictive efficacy of risk scales, protective scales, and summary judgments. Protective factor assessment may be clinically useful, but more development is required. Claims that use of these tools is therapeutically beneficial require testing.

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Caracterización sociodemográfica de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia

Las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia, se definen como aquellas crónicamente debilitantes, que amenazan la vida, de baja prevalencia (menor 1/5000) y alta complejidad. Se estima que a nivel mundial existen entre 6000 a 8000 enfermedades raras diferentes(1). Varios países a nivel mundial individual o colectivamente, en los últimos años han creado políticas e incentivos para la investigación y protección de los pacientes con enfermedades raras. Sin embargo, a pesar del creciente número de publicaciones; la información sobre su etiología, fisiología, historia natural y datos epidemiológicos persiste escasa o ausente. Los registros de pacientes, son una valiosa herramienta para la caracterización de las enfermedades, su manejo y desenlaces con o sin tratamiento. Permiten mejorar políticas de salud pública y cuidado del paciente, contribuyendo a mejorar desenlaces sociales, económicos y de calidad de vida. En Colombia, bajo el decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013 se creó el fundamento legal para la creación de un registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas. El presente estudio busca determinar la caracterización socio-demográfica y la prevalencia de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia en el periodo 2013. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional de corte transversal de fuente secundaria sobre pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas en el territorio nacional; basándose en el registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas obtenido por el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social en el periodo 2013 bajo la normativa del decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013. Las bases de datos obtenidas fueron re-categorizadas en Excel versión 15.17 para la extracción de datos y su análisis estadístico posterior, fue realizado en el paquete estadístico para las ciencias sociales (SPSS v.20, Chicago, IL). Resultados: Se encontraron un total de 13173 pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas para el 2013. De estos, el 53.96% (7132) eran de género femenino y el 46.03% (6083) masculino; la mediana de la edad fue de 28 años con un rango inter-cuartil de 39 años, el 9% de los pacientes presentaron discapacidad. El registro contenía un total de 653 enfermedades huérfanas; el 34% del total de las enfermedades listadas en nuestro país (2). Las patologías más frecuentes fueron el Déficit Congénito del Factor VIII, Miastenia Grave, Enfermedad de Von Willebrand, Estatura Baja por Anomalía de Hormona de Crecimiento y Displasia Broncopulmonar. Discusión: Se estimó que aproximadamente 3.3 millones de colombianos debían tener una enfermedad huérfana para el 2013. El registro nacional logró recolectar datos de 13173 (0.4%). Este bajo número de pacientes, marca un importante sub-registro que se debe al uso de los códigos CIE-10, desconocimiento del personal de salud frente a las enfermedades huérfanas y clasificación errónea de los pacientes. Se encontraron un total de 653 enfermedades, un 34% de las enfermedades reportadas en el listado nacional de enfermedades huérfanas (2) y un 7% del total de enfermedades reportadas en ORPHANET para el periodo 2013 (3). Conclusiones: La recolección de datos y la sensibilización sobre las enfermedades huérfanas al personal de salud, es una estrategia de vital importancia para el diagnóstico temprano, medidas específicas de control e intervenciones de los pacientes. El identificar apropiadamente a los pacientes con este tipo de patologías, permite su ingreso en el registro y por ende mejora el sub-registro de datos. Sin embargo, cabe aclarar que el panorama ideal sería, el uso de un sistema de recolección diferente al CIE-10 y que abarque en mayor medida la totalidad de las enfermedades huérfanas.

Efficiency Measures in the Agricultural Sector: With Applications

Copyright 2013 Springer Netherlands.