Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Low-dose methyl bromide fumigation as a quarantine disinfestation treatment for nectarines against Queensland fruit fly (Diptera:Tephritidae)

White nectarines (Prunus persica var. nucipersica) were fumigated with methyl bromide (MB) at a nominal treatment dose of 18 g m-3 at 18°C for 5 h and 30 min as a quarantine disinfestation treatment against Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly. Three large scale trials were conducted against each of the four immature lifestages, eggs and first, second and third instars. There were no survivors from the estimated 43,614 eggs, 41,873 first instars, 41,345 second instars and 33,549 third instars treated, thereby resulting in an efficacy of GROTERDAN99.99% mortality at the 95% confidence level for each lifestage. Of the 12 trials reported herein, the highest concentration of MB, sampled from the chamber headspace analysed by gas chromatography, was 18.7 g m-3. The maximum chamber temperature from 5 min readings was 19.7°C and the maximum fruit core temperature was 19.5°C. The treatment time for all trials was exactly 5.5 h. Thus the recommended treatment dose to disinfest nectarines from B. tryoni is 19.0 g m-3 MB at 20.0°C for 5.5 h. Fruit quality trials were conducted on white nectarines at three combinations of treatment parameters: 15 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.25 h; 18 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.5 h and 21 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.5 h. The fruit were stored at 0, 4 and 8 days at 4°C and 8 days at 4°C followed by 4 d at 22°C. They were then were assessed for skin colour, flesh colour, skin defects, flesh defects, fruit weight loss, flesh firmness, total soluble solids, titratable acidity and rots. There was no significant difference between untreated control and MB treated fruits in any of the parameters measured. Thus the treatments did not have adverse effects on fruit quality.

References to the use of ethylene oxide for pest control,

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Quarantine facilities and legal issues of the use of biocontrol agents in Brazil.

The objective of this work was to address the classical biological control of pests in Brazil, regarding procedures to import and export native biological material. A brief introduction will be given on the current legal issues on the use of biocontrol agents, as well as some considerations on the existing quarantine pests and actions already carried out in the country. The safety in the introduction of exotic organisms is important for Brazilian phytosanitary defense and for a higher adoption of classical biocontrol, making it available for integrated pest management (IPM). Legal and normative aspects establish the procedures that must to be adopted, not only to protect bioprospecting and native organisms, but also to minimize risks to the national genetic patrimony associated with the introduction of exotic organisms. Furthermore, the import/export procedures adopted for vegetal and useful organisms for pest biological control and for other genetic material must be subjected to phytosanitary measures performed in government?certified quarantine facilities and diagnostic laboratories. Finally, the quarantine activities listed here are strategic for safeguarding the country from potential problems arising from border transit of living organisms.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritdae) : what do we know to assist pest management?

The distribution, systematics and ecology of Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly are reviewed. Bactrocera tryoni is a member of the B. tryoni complex of species, which currently includes four named species, viz. B. tryoni s.s., B. neohumeralis, B. melas and B. aquilonis. The species status of B. melas and B. aquilonis are unclear (they may be junior synonyms of B. tryoni) and their validity, or otherwise, needs to be confirmed as a matter of urgency. While Queensland fruit fly is regarded as a tropical species, it cannot be assumed that its distribution will spread further south under climate change scenarios. Increasing aridity and hot dry summers, as well as more complex, indirect interactions resulting from elevated CO2, make predicting the future distribution and abundance of B. tryoni difficult. The ecology of B. tryoni is reviewed with respect to current control approaches (with the exception of Sterile Insect Technique which is covered in a companion paper). We conclude that there are major gaps in the knowledge required to implement most non-insecticide based management approaches. Priority areas for future research include host plant interactions, protein and cue-lure foraging and use, spatial dynamics, development of new monitoring tools, investigating the use of natural enemies and better integration of fruit flies into general horticultural IPM systems.

Wing shape as a potential discriminator of morphologically similar pest taxa within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Four morphologically cryptic species of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly complex (B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae, B. carambolae and B. philippinensis) are serious agricultural pests. As they are difficult to diagnose using traditional taxonomic techniques, we examined the potential for geometric morphometric analysis of wing size and shape to discriminate between them. Fifteen wing landmarks generated size and shape data for 245 specimens for subsequent comparisons among three geographically distinct samples of each species. Intraspecific wing size was significantly different within samples of B. carambolae and B. dorsalis s.s. but not within samples of B. papayae or B. philippinensis. Although B. papayae had the smallest wings (average centroid size=6.002 mm±0.061 SE) and B. dorsalis s.s. the largest (6.349 mm±0.066 SE), interspecific wing size comparisons were generally non-informative and incapable of discriminating species. Contrary to the wing size data, canonical variate analysis based on wing shape data discriminated all species with a relatively high degree of accuracy; individuals were correctly reassigned to their respective species on average 93.27% of the time. A single sample group of B. carambolae from locality 'TN Malaysia' was the only sample to be considerably different from its conspecific groups with regards to both wing size and wing shape. This sample was subsequently deemed to have been originally misidentified and likely represents an undescribed species. We demonstrate that geometric morphometric techniques analysing wing shape represent a promising approach for discriminating between morphologically cryptic taxa of the B. dorsalis species complex.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Five commercial citrus rate poorly as hosts of the polyphagous fruit flyBactrocera tryoni(Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in laboratory studies

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt), is a polyphagous pest, and many citrus types are included among its hosts. While quantification of citrus host use by B. tryoni is lacking, citrus is generally considered a ‘low pressure’ crop. This paper investigates B. tryoni female oviposition preference and offspring performance in five citrus types; Murcott mandarin (Citrus reticulata), Navel orange and Valencia orange (Citrus sinensis), Eureka lemon (Citrus limon) and yellow grapefruit (Citrus paradisi). Oviposition preference was investigated in laboratory-based choice and no-choice experiments, while immature survival and offspring performance were investigated by infesting fruits in the laboratory and evaluating pupal recovery, pupal emergence and F1 fecundity. Fruit size, Brix level and peel toughness were also measured for correlation with host use. Bactrocera tryoni demonstrated an oviposition preference hierarchy among the citrus fruits tested; Murcott and grapefruit were most preferred for oviposition and lemon the least, while preference for Navel and Valencia was intermediate. Peel toughness was negatively correlated with B. tryoni oviposition preference, while no significant correlations were detected between oviposition and Brix level or fruit size. Immature survival in the tested fruit was very low. Murcott was the best host (21% pupal recovery), while all other citrus types that showed pupal recovery of 6% or lower and no pupae were recovered from Valencia orange. In pupae recovered from Navel orange and lemon, adult eclosion was greatly reduced, while in grapefruit and lemon, no eggs were recovered from F1 adults. Based on these laboratory results, many commercial citrus varieties appear to be poor hosts for B. tryoni and may pose a low post-harvest and quarantine risk. These findings need to be confirmed in the field, as they impact on both pre-harvest and post-harvest countermeasures.

Evolutionary genetics and human assisted movement of a globally invasive pest (Russian wheat aphid : Diuraphis noxia)

This PhD study has examined the population genetics of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA, Diuraphis noxia), one of the world’s most invasive agricultural pests, throughout its native and introduced global range. Firstly, this study investigated the geographic distribution of genetic diversity within and among RWA populations in western China. Analysis of mitochondrial data from 18 sites provided evidence for the long-term existence and expansion of RWAs in western China. The results refute the hypothesis that RWA is an exotic species only present in China since 1975. The estimated date of RWA expansion throughout western China coincides with the debut of wheat domestication and cultivation practices in western Asia in the Holocene. It is concluded that western China represents the limit of the far eastern native range of this species. Analysis of microsatellite data indicated high contemporary gene flow among northern populations in western China, while clear geographic isolation between northern and southern populations was identified across the Tianshan mountain range and extensive desert regions. Secondly, this study analyzed the worldwide pathway of invasion using both microsatellite and endosymbiont genetic data. Individual RWAs were obtained from native populations in Central Asia and the Middle East and invasive populations in Africa and the Americas. Results indicated two pathways of RWA invasion from 1) Syria in the Middle East to North Africa and 2) Turkey to South Africa, Mexico and then North and South America. Very little clone diversity was identified among invasive populations suggesting that a limited founder event occurred together with predominantly asexual reproduction and rapid population expansion. The most likely explanation for the rapid spread (within two years) from South Africa to the New World is by human movement, probably as a result of the transfer of wheat breeding material. Furthermore, the mitochondrial data revealed the presence of a universal haplotype and it is proposed that this haplotype is representative of a wheat associated super-clone that has gained dominance worldwide as a result of the widespread planting of domesticated wheat. Finally, this study examined salivary gland gene diversity to determine whether a functional basis for RWA invasiveness could be identified. Peroxidase DNA sequence data were obtained for a selection of worldwide RWA samples. Results demonstrated that most native populations were polymorphic while invasive populations were monomorphic, supporting previous conclusions relating to demographic founder effects in invasive populations. Purifying selection most likely explains the existence of a universal allele present in Middle Eastern populations, while balancing selection was evident in East Asian populations. Selection acting on the peroxidase gene may provide an allele-dependent advantage linked to the successful establishment of RWAs on wheat, and ultimately their invasion potential. In conclusion, this study is the most comprehensive molecular genetic investigation of RWA population genetics undertaken to date and provides significant insights into the source and pathway of global invasion and the potential existence of a wheat-adapted genotype that has colonised major wheat growing countries worldwide except for Australia. This research has major biosecurity implications for Australia’s grain industry.

Learning in Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): a new look at the behaviour and control of a polyphagous pest

Recent experimental evidence has shown that learning occurs in the host selection behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), one of the world‘s most important agricultural pests. This paper discusses how the occurrence of learning changes our understanding of the host selection behaviour of this polyphagous moth. Host preferences determined from previous laboratory studies may be vastly different from preferences exhibited by moths in the field, where the abundance of particular hosts may be more likely to determine host preference. In support of this prediction, a number of field studies have shown that the ‘attractiveness’ of different hosts for H. armigera oviposition may depend on the relative abundance of these host species. Insect learning may play a fundamental role in the design and application of present and future integrated pest management strategies such as the use of host volatiles, trap crops and resistant crop varieties for monitoring and controlling this important pest species

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.