Phase synchronization between stratospheric and tropospheric quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations

A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

安图红松树轮稳定碳同位素记录的低云量信息

分析了安图红松树轮碳同位素和与之临近的敦化市气象站气象记录间的相关关系，发现树轮碳同位素与上年5－7月平均低云量间存在显著的负相关关系，重建了该近200年来5－7月平均低云量变化。功率谱分析表明，δ^13C序列，重建的低云量序列均包含明显的厄尔厄诺－南方涛动周期（ENSO）和准2年振荡周期（QBO），反映了ENSO以及东亚季风对该区气候的影响。分析了安图红松树轮碳同位素和与之临近的敦化市气象站气象记录间的相关关系，发现树轮碳同位素与上年5－7月平均低云量间存在显著的负相关关系，重建了该近200年来5－7月平均低云量变化。功率谱分析表明，δ^13C序列，重建的低云量序列均包含明显的厄尔厄诺－南方涛动周期（ENSO）和准2年振荡周期（QBO），反映了ENSO以及东亚季风对该区气候的影响。

植物稳定同位素多尺度、高分辨率古气候信息综合辨识-以安图红松和红原泥炭为例

植物稳定同位素气候学因其具有坚实的理论基础，在古气候研究中倍受关注。同位素“语言”对气候变化的记录是一种“精确”记录。近30多年来，大量科学家不懈努力，提出并完善了植物C、H、O同位素分馏模型，为全球气候变化提供了理想的研究手段。古气候研究面临空前的机遇和挑战；不论是气候规律的发掘以及气候驱动机制的探讨，均需要大力加强。作者利用植物同位素气候学这一理想的研究“工具”，分别选取树轮和泥炭气候历史档案库作为信息载体，开展了中国全新世以来高分辨率、多时间尺度的气候信息综合辨识。我的工作表明：植物稳定同位素组成是理想的气候代用指标。树轮、泥炭档案库相结合，可以获得多尺度（年际、代际、百年以及千年时间尺度）、高分辨率气候信息，对于认识全球气候变化规律以及深入探讨全球气候动力学机制是十分重要的。1、安图红松树轮同位素气候代用记录研究（1）安图红松树轮同位素组成受多种气象因子的联合作用，因而单一地将某一同位素指标与某一气象因子做回归分析所得结果不甚理想。本论文构建了“温度一湿度”复合气候指标，取得了理想的结果。研究发现，不论是树轮δ13C还是δ18O，均与5-8月温湿复合指标显著相关。重建的气候变化与《安图县志》记录的气候变化事件大多吻合。证明这种新的研究方案是可行的，值得在以后的工作中进一步加强。（2）安图红松树轮δ13C灵敏地记录了该区过去200年来5-7月低云量变化。综合分析各种气象要素之间的相关关系以及气象要素与树轮δ13C之间的相关关系，作者认为，低云量对树轮δ13C的影响是一种间接影响。低云量非常显著地影响日照强度以及降雨量等气象因子，进而借助于日照强度及降雨量等气象因子在树轮δ13C中留下自身的变化“印记”。（3）功率谱分析证明，安图红松树轮δ13C、δ18O序列均包含了显著的准2年周期、准4年周期、准10-8年周期。分别是对东亚夏季风准两年振荡（QBO），ENSO准4年周期，太阳活动准11年周期的响应。（4）作者在传统树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型基础上，同时引入“交换因子”和“蒸腾因子”两个新参数，改进了树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型。改进的模型能利用树轮H、O同位素组成较准确模拟大气降水H、O同位素组成。改进的模型采用“自适应”方式，具有很大的灵活性，可望用于“用泥炭同位素组成模拟大气降水同位素组成”这项研究中。2、红原泥炭氧同位素气候代用记录研究（1）过去6000年来，红原温度变化趋势与金川、敦德温度变化趋势有很好的相似性，证明中国大多地区温度变化趋势是一致的。6000～4000aBP平均温度水平较低；4000-1500 aBP平均温度水平较高；1500aBP至今平均温度水平相对较低。4000aBP和1500aBP是近6000年温度变化序列中两个显著的转折点。（2）红原温度变化序列中记录到一系列低温突变，这些突变事件与金川、敦德、格陵兰、北大西洋，等等，广泛区域内温度突变事件具有很好的一致性。特别地，每当一次低温突变事件发生，通常有相应的社会结构重整、社会崩溃、古文明坍塌等重大历史事件与之对应。这进一步证实，气候变化（特别是气候突变）对整个社会经济和文明的冲击是十分明显的。（3）近6000年红原、金川温度变化趋势与大气14C变化趋势非常相似，暗示中国地区温度变化的主要驱动力来自太阳活动。功率谱分析进一步证实了这一结论。功率谱分析中最显著的周期信号是88-yr和123-127-yr年周期，体现了一种典型的世纪尺度温度变化特征。3、综合讨论（1）“红原-金川”平均温度变化趋势显示，近千年中国平均温度变化与经典的太阳活动极小期，如Darton极小、Maunder极小、sp6rer极小、oort极小，等等，表现一致。表明中国气温变化主要驱动力来自太阳活动。大约在1050-1250AD期间，中国温度水平较高。而同期大气14C，南极冰心10Be以及模拟的总太阳辐射等均表明太阳活动处于较高水平。大量树轮记录也表明近百年中国并无异常升温。这些资料表明，最近百年气温变化可能并未超出自然变率。（2）提出了“大洋温盐环流一季风”概念模型。这一模型能很好解释北大西洋温度突变与印度洋夏季风突变的一致性、中国东北和西南长期降雨趋势的反相性、北太平洋（温盐环流上翻区）温度记录与北大西洋温度记录的“跷跷板”效应（seesaw effect），等等。大洋温盐环流可能是主宰印度洋夏季风区、东亚夏季风区长期干湿变迁的主要因素。

Una aproximación evolucionista para la generación automática de sentencias SQL a partir de ejemplos

En la actualidad, el uso de las tecnologías ha sido primordial para el avance de las sociedades, estas han permitido que personas sin conocimientos informáticos o usuarios llamados “no expertos” se interesen en su uso, razón por la cual los investigadores científicos se han visto en la necesidad de producir estudios que permitan la adaptación de sistemas, a la problemática existente dentro del ámbito informático. Una necesidad recurrente de todo usuario de un sistema es la gestión de la información, la cual se puede administrar por medio de una base de datos y lenguaje específico, como lo es el SQL (Structured Query Language), pero esto obliga al usuario sin conocimientos a acudir a un especialista para su diseño y construcción, lo cual se ve reflejado en costos y métodos complejos, entonces se plantea una pregunta ¿qué hacer cuando los proyectos son pequeñas y los recursos y procesos son limitados? Teniendo como base la investigación realizada por la universidad de Washington[39], donde sintetizan sentencias SQL a partir de ejemplos de entrada y salida, se pretende con esta memoria automatizar el proceso y aplicar una técnica diferente de aprendizaje, para lo cual utiliza una aproximación evolucionista, donde la aplicación de un algoritmo genético adaptado origina sentencias SQL válidas que responden a las condiciones establecidas por los ejemplos de entrada y salida dados por el usuario. Se obtuvo como resultado de la aproximación, una herramienta denominada EvoSQL que fue validada en este estudio. Sobre los 28 ejercicios empleados por la investigación [39], 23 de los cuales se obtuvieron resultados perfectos y 5 ejercicios sin éxito, esto representa un 82.1% de efectividad. Esta efectividad es superior en un 10.7% al establecido por la herramienta desarrollada en [39] SQLSynthesizer y 75% más alto que la herramienta siguiente más próxima Query by Output QBO[31]. El promedio obtenido en la ejecución de cada ejercicio fue de 3 minutos y 11 segundos, este tiempo es superior al establecido por SQLSynthesizer; sin embargo, en la medida un algoritmo genético supone la existencia de fases que amplían los rangos de tiempos, por lo cual el tiempo obtenido es aceptable con relación a las aplicaciones de este tipo. En conclusión y según lo anteriormente expuesto, se obtuvo una herramienta automática con una aproximación evolucionista, con buenos resultados y un proceso simple para el usuario “no experto”.

Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions Associated With the Dynamical Processes in the Atmosphere

The aim of the present study is to understand the biennial scale stratosphere-troposphere interactions over India, and synoptic to interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric longwaves using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and satellite measured total ozone data. The biennial timescale interaction between lower stratosphere and troposphere over Thumba is analysed using high-resolution radiosonde data. The results suggest that TBO and QBO are two different phenomena with nearly biennial periodicity. Interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposphere exchanges caused by the newly documented Asia Pacific Wave (APW) were analysed using ozone as tracer of atmospheric motion. Synoptic timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by subtropical upper tropospheric long waves over Asia were studied using global total ozone measurements from TOMS. This research work can be extended to study the influence of decadal scale epochal nature in Indian summer monsoon activity on the APW generated total ozone anomalies around the globe and the trend estimates in total ozone

Characteristics of Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Relation to Asian Summer Monsoon

The present work is an attempt to understand the characteristics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Asian summer monsoon region, more specifically over the Indian subcontinent. Mainly three important parameters are taken such as zonal wind, temperature and ozone over the UT/LS of the Asian summer monsoon region. It made a detailed study of its interannual variability and characteristics of theses parameters during the Indian summer monsoon period. Monthly values of zonal wind and temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1960-2002 are used for the present study. Also the daily overpass total ozone data for the 12 Indian stations (from low latitude to high latitudes) from the TOMS Nimbus 7 satellite for the period 1979 to 1992 were also used to understand the total ozone variation over the Indian region. The study reveals that if QBO phases in the stratosphere is easterly or weak westerly then the respective monsoon is found to be DRY or below Normal . On the other hand, if the phase is westerly or weak easterly the respective Indian summer monsoon is noted as a WET year. This connection of stratospheric QBO phases and Indian summer monsoon gives more insight in to the long-term predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Wavelet analysis and EOF methods are the two advanced statistical techniques used in the present study to explore more information of the zonal wind that from the smaller scale to higher scale variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. The interannual variability of temperature for different stratospheric and tropospheric levels over the Asian summer monsoon region have been studied. An attempt has been made to understand the total ozone characteristics and its interannual variablilty over 12 Indian stations spread from south latitudes to north latitudes. Finally it found that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere contribute significantly to monsoon variability and climate changes. It is also observed that there exists a link between the stratospheric QBO and Indian summer monsoon

Studies on the Role of Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation in the Interannual Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

The present study illustrates the biennial oscillation in different ocean-atmosphere parameters associated with interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.It also accounts the role of different processes like ENSO, IOD, QBO and ISO in the monsoon variability during the TBO years.

Studies on the Characteristics of Vertical Circulation and Equatorial Waves using Indian MST Radar

The aim of the present study is to understand the characteristics and properties of different wave modes and the vertical circulation pattern in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Indian region using data obtained from the Indian Mesosphere-Stratosphere Troposphere (MST) radar, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Centres of Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysed data and radiosonde observations.Studies on the vertical motion in monsoon Hadley circulation are carried out and the results are discussed . From the analysis of MST radar data, an overall picture of vertical motion of air over Indian region is explained and noted that there exists sinking motion both during winter and summer. Besides, the study shows that there is an anomalous northerly wind in the troposphere over the southern peninsular region during southwest monsoon season.The outcome of the study on intrusion of mid-latitude upper tropospheric trough and associated synoptic-scale vertical velocity over the tropical Indian latitudes are reported and discussed . It shows that there is interaction between north Indian latitudes and tropical easterly region, when there is an eastward movement of Western Disturbance across the country. It explains the strengthening of westerlies and a change of winter westerlies into easterlies in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere. The divergence field computed over the MST radar station shows intensification in the downward motion in association with the synoptic systems of the northwest Indian region.

A Study on the Transport and Distribution of Atmospheric Aerosols and its Influence on Regional Meteorological Parameters over the Indian Subcontinent

This doctoral thesis addresses the growing concern about the significant changes in the climatic and weather patterns due to the aerosol loading that have taken place in the Indo Gangetic Plain(IGP)which includes most of the Northern Indian region. The study region comprises of major industrial cities in India (New Delhi, Kanpur, Allahabad, Jamshedpur and Kolkata). Northern and central parts of India are one of the most thickly populated areas in the world and have the most intensely farmed areas. Rapid increase in population and urbanization has resulted in an abrupt increase in aerosol concentrations in recent years. The IGP has a major source of coal; therefore most of the industries including numerous thermal power plants that run on coal are located around this region. They inject copious amount of aerosols into the atmosphere. Moreover, the transport of dust aerosols from arid locations is prevalent during the dry months which increase the aerosol loading in theatmosphere. The topography of the place is also ideal for the congregation of aerosols. It is bounded by the Himalayas in the north, Thar Desert in the west, the Vindhyan range in the south and Brahmaputra ridge in the east. During the non‐monsoon months (October to May) the weather in the location is dry with very little rainfall. Surface winds are weak during most of the time in this dry season. The aerosols that reach the location by means of long distance transport and from regional sources get accumulated under these favourable conditions. The increase in aerosol concentration due to the complex combination of aerosol transport and anthropogenic factors mixed with the contribution from the natural sources alters the optical properties and the life time of clouds in the region. The associated perturbations in radiative balance have a significant impact on the meteorological parameters and this in turn determines the precipitation forming process. Therefore, any change in weather which disturbs the normal hydrological pattern is alarming in the socio‐economic point of view. Hence, the main focus of this work is to determine the variation in transport and distribution of aerosols in the region and to understand the interaction of these aerosols with meteorological parameters and cloud properties.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Quasi-biennial oscillation and tracer distributions in a coupled chemistry-climate model

[ 1] We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM), which generates its own wind and temperature quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to study the effect of coupling on the QBO and to examine the QBO signals in stratospheric trace gases, particularly ozone. Radiative coupling of the interactive chemistry to the underlying general circulation model tends to prolong the QBO period and to increase the QBO amplitude in the equatorial zonal wind in the lower and middle stratosphere. The model ozone QBO agrees well with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite observations in terms of vertical and latitudinal structure. The model captures the ozone QBO phase change near 28 km over the equator and the column phase change near +/- 15 degrees latitude. Diagnosis of the model chemical terms shows that variations in NOx are the main chemical driver of the O-3 QBO around 35 km, i.e., above the O-3 phase change.

A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings

A full troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere global circulation model is used in a set of idealised experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric flow to improvements in the equatorial zonal winds. The model shows significant sensitivity to variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere, the imposition of SAO and QBO like variability in this region advances the timing of midwinter sudden warmings by about one month. Perturbations to the lower equatorial stratosphere are mainly found to influence early winter polar variability. These results suggest that it is important to pay attention to the capability of models to simulate realistic variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere.

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.

Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.