Glycyrrhetinic acid food supplementation lowers serum potassium concentration in chronic hemodialysis patients

Hyperkalemia is a common life-threatening problem in hemodialysis patients. Because glycyrrhetinic acid (GA) inhibits the enzyme 11beta-hydroxy-steroid dehydrogenase II and thereby increases cortisol availability to the colonic mineralocorticoid receptor, it has the potential to lower serum potassium concentrations. To test this, 10 patients in a 6 month prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study were given cookies or bread rolls supplemented with glycyrrhetinic acid or placebo. Twenty-four-hour blood pressure measurements were performed at baseline and week 6 and 12 of each treatment period. The ratio of plasma cortisol/cortisone was significantly increased in all patients on GA as compared to baseline or placebo, indicating appropriate enzyme inhibition. Nine of the 10 patients had a persistent decrease in predialysis serum potassium concentration. On GA, mean predialysis serum potassium was significantly lower than at baseline or on placebo. On placebo, serum potassium was significantly elevated above the upper limit of normal in 76% compared to 30% of measurements during GA treatment. Furthermore, on this treatment the frequency of severe hyperkalemia significantly decreased from 9% to 0.6%. No differences were found in parameters reflecting sodium retention. Although these studies show that prolonged GA supplementation persistently lowers serum potassium in dialysis patients, a long-term toxicity study will be mandatory before we recommend the routine use of this treatment.

An experimental analysis of operating conditions in cold roll-forming

A detailed literature survey confirmed cold roll-forming to be a complex and little understood process. In spite of its growing value, the process remains largely un-automated with few principles used in set-up of the rolling mill. This work concentrates on experimental investigations of operating conditions in order to gain a scientific understanding of the process. The operating conditions are; inter-pass distance, roll load, roll speed, horizontal roll alignment. Fifty tests have been carried out under varied operating conditions, measuring section quality and longitudinal straining to give a picture of bending. A channel section was chosen for its simplicity and compatibility with previous work. Quality measurements were measured in terms of vertical bow, twist and cross-sectional geometric accuracy, and a complete method of classifying quality has been devised. The longitudinal strain profile was recorded, by the use of strain gauges attached to the strip surface at five locations. Parameter control is shown to be important in allowing consistency in section quality. At present rolling mills are constructed with large tolerances on operating conditions. By reduction of the variability in parameters, section consistency is maintained and mill down-time is reduced. Roll load, alignment and differential roll speed are all shown to affect quality, and can be used to control quality. Set-up time is reduced by improving the design of the mill so that parameter values can be measured and set, without the need for judgment by eye. Values of parameters can be guided by models of the process, although elements of experience are still unavoidable. Despite increased parameter control, section quality is variable, if only due to variability in strip material properties. Parameters must therefore be changed during rolling. Ideally this can take place by closed-loop feedback control. Future work lies in overcoming the problems connected with this control.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Effects of a rhythmic and choreographic program in obese and overweight participants

Introduction: Currently there is a growing trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. This increased prevalence trend leads to an increase in the costs of health care. Objective: The aim of the present study was to analyze the effects on physical fitness and bone mineral density through an intervention program of physical activity based on rhythmic and choreographic activities in an overweight and obese population. Method: An 8-month physical activity based on rhythmic and choreographic activities was conducted in overweight and obese people. Thirty-four participants aged 50.43 ± 10.57 with a body mass index (BMI) 38.37 ± 4.82 took part in the physical activity program. This study assesses the effects of fitness, percentage of body fat and bone mineral density (BMD). Results: After an 8-month physical activity intervention program based on rhythmic and choreographic activities, significant differences were found in: percentage of body fat (p = 0.004), aerobic capacity (p = 0.023), flexibility of the lower limbs (flexibility in the right leg p = 0.029 and left leg p = 0.002), balance (p < 0.001), strength in lower limbs (p = 0..003) and strength in upper limbs (p < 0.001). Besides that, significant differences were found in parameters related with BMD such as T-Score (p = 0.025) and Z-Score (p = 0.012), Bone Quality Index (BQI) (p = 0.026) and an increase in Broadband Ultrasound Attenuation (BUA) although not a statistically significant one (p = 0.939). Conclusions: These findings suggest that a physical activity program based on rhythmic and choreographic activities can act as a preventive method of mobility and fragility, as well as preventing bone loss.

Sticking non-stick: surface and structure control of diamond-like carbon in plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition

This short review article explores the practical use of diamond-like carbon (DLC) produced by plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD). Using as an example issues relating to the DLC coating of a hand-held surgical device, we draw on previous works using atomic force microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, tensiometry and electron paramagnetic resonance. Utilising data from these techniques, we examine the surface structure, substrate-film interface and thin film microstructure, such as sp2/sp3 ratio (graphitic/diamond-like bonding ratio) and sp2 clustering. We explore the variations in parameters describing these characteristics, and relate these to the final device properties such as friction, wear resistance, and diffusion barrier integrity. The material and device characteristics are linked to the initial plasma and substrate conditions.

Metodologia para análise da confiabilidade estrutural de escavações em rocha.

A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.

Avaliação ecocardiográfica da insuficiência mitral concomitante, na substituição valvular aórtica isolada: é possível prevê-la?

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular - Ramo de especialização: Ultrassonografia Cardiovascular

Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables

This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A wide range of approaches are surveyed which aim to overcome the resulting problems. We stress the related themes of prior shrinkage, model averaging and model selection. Subsequently, we consider a particular modelling approach in detail. This involves the use of dynamic model selection methods with large TVP-VARs. A forecasting exercise involving a large US macroeconomic data set illustrates the practicality and empirical success of our approach.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Histoarchitecture of schistosomal granuloma development and involution: morphogenetic and biomechanical approaches

The authors present morphogenetic and biomechanical approaches on the concept of the Schistosoma mansoni granulomas, considering them as organoid structures that depend on cellular adhesion and sorting, forming rearrangement into hierarchical concentric layers, creating tension-dependent structures, aiming to acquire round form, since this is the minimal energy form, in which opposing forces pull in equally from all directions and are in balance. From the morphogenetic point of view, the granulomas function as little organs, presenting maturative and involutional stages in their development with final disappearance (pre-granulomatous stages, subdivided in: weakly and/or initial reactive and exudative; granulomatous stages: exudative-productive, productive and involutional). A model for the development of granulomas was suggested, according to the following stages: encapsulating, focal histolysis, fiber production, orientation and compacting and involution and desintegration. The authors concluded that schistosomal granuloma is not a tangled web of individual cells and fibers, but an organized structure composed by host and parasite components, which is not formed to attack the miracidia, but functions as an hybrid interface between two different phylogenetic beings.

Morphometric study of Schistosoma mansoni adult worms recovered from undernourished infected mice

Some unfavourable effects of malnutrition of the host on Schistosoma mansoni worm biology and structure have been reported based upon brigthfield microscopy. This paper aims to study by morphometric techniques, some morphological parameters in male and female adult worms recovered from undernourished albino mice in comparison with parasites recovered from well-fed infected mice. Undernourished animals were fed a multideficient and essentially low protein diet (RBD diet) and compared to well-fed control mice fed with the commercial diet NUVILAB. Seventy-five days post-infection with 80 cercarie (BL strain) animals were sacrificed. All adult worms were fixed in 10% formalin and stained with carmine chloride. One hundred male and 60 female specimens from each group (undernourished and control) were examined using an image system analysis Leica Quantimet 500C and the Sigma Scan Measurement System. The following morphometrical parameters were studied: body length and width, oral and ventral suckers, number and area of testicular lobes, length and width of ovary and uterine egg. For statistical analysis, the Student's t test for unpaired samples was applied. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were detected in body length and width, in parameters of suckers, uterine egg width, ovary length and area of testicular lobes, with lower values for specimens from undernourished mice. The nutritional status of the host has negative influence on S. mansoni adult worms, probably through unavailability of essential nutrients to the parasites.

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Puumassapesurin suotautumisolojen kartoitus ja simulointi

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia sellumassan suotautumiseen liittyviä tekijöitä Ahlstrom Machineryn Drum Displacer™ -puumassapesurissa (DD-pesuri). Teoriaosassa tarkasteltiin aluksi suotautumisen teoriaa kuitu-vesi-suspensiossa, minkä jälkeen esiteltiin suotautumisnopeuteen vaikuttavia fysikaalisia ja kemiallisia vaikutusmekanismeja. Seuraavaksi kuvattiin massan pesun yleisiä perusteita sekä teoriaa puumassapesureissa. Lopuksi tarkasteltiin pesurien kytkeytymistä muuhun kuitulinjaan sekä prosessista johtuvia pesun toiminnan ulkoisia häiriötekijöitä. Kokeellisen osan aluksi tarkasteltiin paine- ja lämpötilamittauksien avulla massapesurissa vallitsevia prosessioloja. Mittaustulosten perusteella pumppausolot pesurin suodoslinjoissa ovat vaikeahkot ja häiriötilanteita voi esiintyä, mutta käytäntö on osoittanut tästä olevan vain harvoin haittaa prosessin toiminnalle. Pesureissa toteutuneet syrjäytysnopeudet laskettiin ja niitä verrattiin syrjäytystestien antamiin tuloksiin. Kuitulinjasta riippuen testin vastaavuus tehdasprosessiin vaihteli suuresti. Syrjäytystesteillä kokeiltiin myös tehdasprosesseissa usein esiintyvien muuttujien vaikutusta sellukakun syrjäytettävyyteen. Kakun paksuus ja syrjäytyslämpötila vaikuttivat syrjäytysnopeuteen Darcyn lain mukaisesti. Alipaineen massakakun alapuolella havaittiin huonontavan syrjäytysnopeutta verrattuna tilanteeseen, jossa kakun alla vallitsi ilmanpaine. Tämä havainto on selvästi ristiriidassa suotautumisen teorian kanssa. Massakakun muodostumis-pH osoittautui ratkaisevaksi lopulliselle syrjäytysnopeudelle, sillä alkalisissa oloissa muodostetun kuitukakun syrjäytysnopeus ei enää parantunut happamalla syrjäytysnesteellä. Happamissa oloissa muodostetun kakun syrjäytysnopeus oli alkalisista parempi, mutta se alkoi hitaasti alentua, kun syrjäytysneste vaihtui alkaliseen. Massan laimentaminen ennen syrjäytystä alkalisella tehdassuodoksella puhtaan veden sijasta alensi ligniinipitoisella massalla lopullista syrjäytysnopeutta. Shirato-Tillerin mallilla ja Jönssonin staattisella mallilla simuloitiin numeerisesti syrjäytystestiä kahdessa eri pH:ssa, ja simulointituloksia verrattiin vastaavissa oloissa tehtyihin syrjäytystesteihin. Shirato-Tillerin mallin antamien syrjäytysnopeuksien havaittiin olevan lähellä syrjäytystestien nopeuksia, kun Jönssonin mallin antamat tulokset jäivät huomattavasti testituloksia alemmiksi. Herkkyystarkastelussa havaittiin mallien olevan varsin herkkiä parametrien virheille. Hajonta vaadittavien kuituparametrien määrityksissä ja menetelmien työläys rajoittavat numeerisen simuloinnin käytettävyyttä, sillä kuituparametrien määrityksen vaatima työmäärä on ainakin toistaiseksi syrjäytystestiä suurempi. Lopuksi todettiin, että oikeiden syrjäytysolosuhteiden käyttö on ensiarvoisen tärkeää oikeiden tulosten saamiseksi sekä kokeellisessa että numeerisessa simuloinnissa. Nykyinen syrjäytystestilaitteisto on pienin muutoksin käyttökelpoinen, kun massan testaus prosessioloissa tulee rutiininomaiseksi.

Efectividad de la intervención psicosocial en pacientes con enfermedad avanzada y final de vida

Objetivos: Demostrar la efectividad de la intervención psicosocial en la atención integral a personas con enfermedades avanzadas. Método: Se ha evaluado la presencia y evolución de parámetros psicológicos y espirituales de 8.964 pacientes, visitados por 117 profesionales de 29 equipos en un estudio de diseño cuasi-experimental, prospectivo, multcéntrico de un solo grupo pre-test post-test. Resultados: Los resultados muestran mejoras significativas en parámetros como ansiedad (RL 657,64; p<0,001), malestar emociona (RL 757,44; p<0,001), sentido de la vida (RL 248,30; p<0,001) y sentimientos de paz y perdón (RL 190,94; p<0,001). Conclusiones: El efecto positivo de la intervención psicosocial en la reducción de los parámetros psicológicos y espirituales evaluados sugiere que esta es eficaz en el contexto de la atención a personas con enfermedades avanzadas.