Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Produção de compósitos Alumínio/NiTi através do processo híbrido de fricção linear

Os compósitos inteligentes de matriz metálica (CIMM) têm sido intensamente explorados nas últimas décadas devido à capacidade destes sistemas poderem alterar as suas propriedades mediante um estímulo externo. As ligas de Níquel-Titânio (Ni-Ti) são materiais inteligentes e desempenham, maioritariamente, funções de atuação ou controlo de vibrações nos sistemas em que se inserem, permitindo que estes apresentem características funcionais. A soldadura por fricção linear (SFL) tem sido uma alternativa aos processos de soldadura por fusão para materiais difíceis de soldar como as ligas de alumínio (AA) ou ainda na ligação de materiais dissimilares. No entanto, devido à ocorrência de defeitos, gerados como consequência do deficiente fluxo visco-plástico produzidos pela SFL, surgiram novas variantes deste processo, como a SFL assistida por corrente elétrica (SFLACE), que, por efeito de Joule, provoca o aquecimento do material processado e, consequente, aumento do fluxo visco-plástico, diminuindo ou eliminando a presença de defeitos. Este trabalho incide na produção de CIMM utilizando chapas de AA1100 reforçadas com Ni-Ti por SFLACE em configuração de junta sobreposta. As interfaces e os fluxos de material resultantes foram analisados recorrendo às técnicas de microscopia ótica (MO), SEM, EDS e difração de raio-x (DRX). O controlo de vibrações do CIMM produzido foi também estudado através de ensaios de vibração à temperatura ambiente, bem como a temperaturas superiores à de fim da formação da fase austenítica, e efetuaram-se ensaios de flexão e pull-out com vista à caracterização mecânica. Observou-se que o compósito produzido apresenta um fator de amortecimento superior quando o reforço se encontra na fase martensítica. O ensaio de pull-out confirmou a existência da ligação entre a matriz e o reforço, igualmente observada por SEM. O compósito produzido apresenta uma forte ligação entre os materiais dissimilares, com franca melhoria no caso das amostras processadas com corrente elétrica, obtendo-se um material com características funcionais.

Método dos elementos aplicados na simulação numérica do arrancamento de armaduras

Uma das propriedades do betão armado que foi alvo de maior número de estudos, ao longo dos tempos, é a aderência. Esta é uma das propriedades mais importantes a considerar na construção, pois dela depende o desempenho e estabilidade de uma estrutura. Dada a sua importância, a aderência é a propriedade do betão armado mais estudada ao longo do tempo. A complexidade inerente a esta propriedade torna difícil de compreender e prever o comportamento estrutural. Esta dissertação pretende analisar a capacidade do Método dos Elementos Aplicados em simular o ensaio de arrancamento directo e de reproduzir modos de rotura. Este ensaio, denominado de pull-out test, estuda a aderência entre três materiais: o aço, o betão e o grout. Vários tipos de ligações, com diferentes modos de rotura, são simulados e comparados com um ensaio experimental referido na revisão bibliográfica. Assim, recorrer-se-á ao programa Extreme Loading for Structures, que tem como base o Método dos Elementos Aplicados. Através de uma análise de sensibilidade foi possível calibrar as propriedades dos diferentes elementos e das interfaces entre o betão, aço e grout, de modo a viabilizar o cálculo da força crítica das ligações e reproduzir os modos de rotura observados experimentalmente. Este trabalho pretende dar uma contribuição ao conhecimento no âmbito da simulação numérica, em relação a este tipo de ligações, e ajudar à criação de modelos numéricos fiáveis e eficientes de fácil e rápida execução. Esta dissertação permite concluir que o Método dos Elementos Aplicados, apresenta-se como uma boa solução para o estudo deste tipo de ligações. Os resultados numéricos tiveram uma boa aproximação dos resultados experimentais. Em conformidade com a análise experimental, as ligações com bainha de pré-esforço e comprimento de embebimento a partir de 15 cm são as que melhor desempenho têm ao nível da resistência.

Estudo experimental do efeito da geometria da ancoragem no comportamento ao arrancamento de varão em betão

O presente estudo experimental pretende avaliar o comportamento da aderência entre varões em aço nervurado e o betão, a influência da geometria, do estado de fendilhação do betão e da presença de um varão transversal na zona de ancoragem, no comportamento desta. O bom desempenho das estruturas de betão armado depende da sua ligação e aderência entre os diferentes materiais utilizados na sua conceção, aço e betão. Foi com esse pressuposto que a presente dissertação avançou, de forma a serem estudadas as diversas geometrias e condições a que podem estar sujeitas as ancoragens. Para isso, foram elaborados e ensaiados dezasseis modelo de ancoragem: seis modelos em betão fendilhado e dez modelos em betão não fendilhado. Do estudo experimental desenvolvido, os resultados obtidos em betão não fendilhado dos ensaios de arrancamento “Pull-Out” são comparados com as recomendações NP EN 1992-1-1 [27], fib Model Code 2010 [14] e o Structural Concrete Building Code ACI 318-11 [4]. No presente estudo experimental também foi analisado o efeito da fendilhação do betão, permitindo assim compreender melhor o funcionamento e a resistência de uma ancoragem sujeita a essa situação. O efeito da presença de um varão transversal aplicado na zona do mandril foi também estudado.

Experimental analysis of the cyclic response of traditional timber joints and their influence on the seismic capacity of timber frame structures

Timber connections represent the crucial part of a timber structure and a great variability exists in terms of types of connections and mechanisms. Taking as case study the widespread traditional timber frame structures, in particular the Portuguese Pombalino buildings, one of the most common timber connection is the half-lap joint. Connections play a major role in the overall behaviour of a structure, particularly when assessing their seismic response, since damage is concentrated at the connections. For this reason, an experimental campaign was designed and distinct types of tests were carried out on traditional half-lap joints to assess their in-plane response. In particular, pull-out and in-plane cyclic tests were carried out on real scale unreinforced connections. Subsequently, the connections were retrofitted, using strengthening techniques such as self-tapping screws, steel plates and GFRP sheets. The tests chosen were meant to capture the hysteretic behaviour and dissipative capacity of the connections and characterise their response and, therefore, their influence on the seismic response of timber frame walls, particularly concerning their uplifting and rotation capacity, that could lead to rocking in the walls. In this paper, the results of the experimental campaign are presented in terms of hysteretic curves, dissipated energy and equivalent viscous damping ratio. Moreover, recommendations are provided on the most appropriate retrofitting solutions.

Bond performance in NSM-strengthened masonry brick

The use of Near Surface Mounted (NSM) Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRPs) for strengthening masonry structures can be a suitable substitute for Externally Bonded Reinforcement (EBR) technique. NSM technique has many advantages such as larger bonded area, better anchorage capacity, higher resistance, higher percentage exploitation of the FRP and reduced installation time. However, information regarding the effectiveness of this strengthening technique for masonry structures is scarce and characterization of the critical mechanisms such as bond behavior is necessary. This paper presents experimental investigation of the bond performance in NSM-strengthened brick specimens. CFRP laminates are used for NSM strengthening of masonry bricks with different bonded lengths. The bond between FRP and masonry substrate is investigated by performing conventional pull-out tests and the experimental results are presented and discussed.

Tensile and bond characterization of natural fibers embeeded in inorganic matrices

Innovative composite materials made of continuous fibers embedded in mortar matrices have been recently received attention for externally bonded reinforcement of masonry structures. In this regards, application of natural fibers for strengthening of the repair mortars is attractive due to their low specific weight, sustainability and recycability. This paper presents experimental characterization of tensile and pull-out behavior of natural fibers embedded in two different mortar-based matrices. A lime-based and a geopolymeric-based mortar are used as sustainable and innovative matrices. The obtained experimental results and observations are presented and discussed.

Creep behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete laminar structures

Tese de Doutoramento - Civil Engineering

Durabilidade de colagens estruturais em elementos de madeira

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Estudo da ligação entre componentes estruturais de GFRP (glass fiber reinforced polymer) e componentes estruturais em betão

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Is your waistline creeping up on you?

If you think you could be inching towards bad health then this leaflet is packed with tips and advice to help you keep your weight and waistline healthy.Now includes food and physical activity diaries to complete, and a pull-out section for a weekly meal planner and shopping list.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Fibre-reinforced composites as root canal posts

Fibre-reinforced composite (FRC) root canal posts are suggested to have biomechanical benefits over traditional metallic posts, but they lack good adhesion to resin composites. The aim of this series of studies was to evaluate the adhesion of individually formed fibre-reinforced composite material to composite resin and dentin, as well as some mechanical properties. Flexural properties were evaluated and compared between individually formed FRC post material and different prefabricated posts. The depth of polymerization of the individually formed FRC post material was evaluated with IR spectrophotometry and microhardness measurements, and compared to that of resin without fibres. Bonding properties of the individually formed FRC post to resin cements and dentin were tested using Pull-out- and Push-out-force tests, evaluated with scanning electron microscopy, and compared to those of prefabricated FRC and metal posts. Load-bearing capacity and microstrain were evaluated and failure mode assessment was made on incisors restored with individually formed FRC posts of different structures and prefabricated posts. The results of these studies show that the individually polymerized and formed FRC post material had higher flexural properties compared to the commercial prefabricated FRC posts. The individually polymerized FRC material showed almost the same degree of conversion after light polymerization as monomer resin without fibres. Moreover, it was found that the individually formed FRC post material with a semiinterpenetrating polymer network (IPN) polymer matrix bonded better to composite resin luting cement, than did the prefabricated posts with a cross-linked polymer matrix. Furthermore, it was found that, contrary to the other posts, there were no adhesive failures between the individually formed FRC posts and composite resin luting cement. This suggests better interfacial adhesion of cements to these posts. Although no differences in load-bearing capacity or microstrain could be seen, the incisors restored with individually formed FRC posts with a hollow structure showed more favourable failures compared to other prefabricated posts. These studies suggest that it is possible to use individually formed FRC material with semi-IPN polymer matrix as root canal post material. They also indicate that there are benefits especially regarding the bonding properties to composite resin and dentin with this material compared to prefabricated FRC post material with a cross-linked matrix. Furthermore, clinically more repairable failures were found with this material compared to those of prefabricated posts.

Characterization and treatment of sisal fiber residues for cement-based composite application

Sisal fiber is an important agricultural product used in the manufacture of ropes, rugs and also as a reinforcement of polymeric or cement-based composites. However, during the fiber production process a large amount of residues is generated which currently have a low potential for commercial use. The aim of this study is to characterize the agricultural residues by the production and improvement of sisal fiber, called field bush and refugo and verify the potentiality of their use in the reinforcement of cement-based composites. The residues were treated with wet-dry cycles and evaluated using tensile testing of fibers, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Compatibility with the cement-based matrix was evaluated through the fiber pull-out test and flexural test in composites reinforced with 2 % of sisal residues. The results indicate that the use of treated residue allows the production of composites with good mechanical properties that are superior to the traditional composites reinforced with natural sisal fibers.

Zum Querkrafttragverhalten von UHPC-Balken mit kombinierter Bewehrung aus Stahlfasern und Stabstahl

Ultrahochfester Beton besitzt aufgrund seiner Zusammensetzung eine sehr hohe Druckfestigkeit von 150 bis über 200 N/mm² und eine außergewöhnlich hohe Dichtigkeit. Damit werden Anwendungen in stark belasteten Bereichen und mit hohen Anforderungen an die Dauerhaftigkeit des Materials ermöglicht. Gleichzeitig zeigt ultrahochfester Beton bei Erreichen seiner Festigkeit ein sehr sprödes Verhalten. Zur Verhinderung eines explosionsartigen Versagens werden einer UHPC-Mischung Fasern zugegeben oder wird eine Umschnürung mit Stahlrohren ausgebildet. Die Zugabe von Fasern zur Betonmatrix beeinflusst neben der Verformungsfähigkeit auch die Tragfähigkeit des UHPC. Das Versagen der Fasern ist abhängig von Fasergeometrie, Fasergehalt, Verbundverhalten sowie Zugfestigkeit der Faser und gekennzeichnet durch Faserauszug oder Faserreißen. Zur Sicherstellung der Tragfähigkeit kann daher auf konventionelle Bewehrung außer bei sehr dünnen Bauteilen nicht verzichtet werden. Im Rahmen des Schwerpunktprogramms SPP 1182 der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) wurden in dem dieser Arbeit zugrunde liegenden Forschungsprojekt die Fragen nach der Beschreibung des Querkrafttragverhaltens von UHPC-Bauteilen mit kombinierter Querkraftbewehrung und der Übertragbarkeit bestehender Querkraftmodelle auf UHPC untersucht. Neben einer umfassenden Darstellung vorhandener Querkraftmodelle für Stahlbetonbauteile ohne Querkraftbewehrung und mit verschiedenen Querkraftbewehrungsarten bilden experimentelle Untersuchungen zum Querkrafttragverhalten an UHPC-Balken mit verschiedener Querkraftbewehrung den Ausgangspunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit. Die experimentellen Untersuchungen beinhalteten zehn Querkraftversuche an UHPC-Balken. Diese Balken waren in Abmessungen und Biegezugbewehrung identisch. Sie unterschieden sich nur in der Art der Querkraftbewehrung. Die Querkraftbewehrungsarten umfassten eine Querkraftbewehrung aus Stahlfasern oder Vertikalstäben, eine kombinierte Querkraftbewehrung aus Stahlfasern und Vertikalstäben und einen Balken ohne Querkraftbewehrung. Obwohl für die in diesem Projekt untersuchten Balken Fasergehalte gewählt wurden, die zu einem entfestigenden Nachrissverhalten des Faserbetons führten, zeigten die Balkenversuche, dass die Zugabe von Stahlfasern die Querkrafttragfähigkeit steigerte. Durch die gewählte Querkraftbewehrungskonfiguration bei ansonsten identischen Balken konnte außerdem eine quantitative Abschätzung der einzelnen Traganteile aus den Versuchen abgeleitet werden. Der profilierte Querschnitt ließ einen großen Einfluss auf das Querkrafttragverhalten im Nachbruchbereich erkennen. Ein relativ stabiles Lastniveau nach Erreichen der Höchstlast konnte einer Vierendeelwirkung zugeordnet werden. Auf Basis dieser Versuchsergebnisse und analytischer Überlegungen zu vorhandenen Querkraftmodellen wurde ein additiver Modellansatz zur Beschreibung des Querkrafttragverhaltens von UHPCBalken mit einer kombinierten Querkraftbewehrung aus Stahlfasern und Vertikalstäben formuliert. Für die Formulierung der Traganteile des Betonquerschnitts und der konventionellen Querkraftbewehrung wurden bekannte Ansätze verwendet. Für die Ermittlung des Fasertraganteils wurde die Faserwirksamkeit zugrunde gelegt. Das Lastniveau im Nachbruchbereich aus Viendeelwirkung ergibt sich aus geometrischen Überlegungen.