An Enchanted Tool? Humanitarian Assistance and the ILC Draft Articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters

Despite previous attempts at codification of international law regarding international responses to natural and human-made disasters, there is currently no binding international legal framework to regulate the provision of humanitarian assistance outside armed conflicts. Nevertheless, since the International Law Commission (ILC) included the protection of persons in the event of disasters on its programme of work in 2006, it has provisionally adopted eleven draft articles that have the potential to create binding obligations on states and humanitarian actors in disaster settings. Draft articles adopted include the definition of ‘a disaster’, the relationship of the draft articles to the international humanitarian law of armed conflict, recognition of the inherent dignity of the human person, and the duty of international cooperation. However, the final form of the draft articles has not been agreed. The Codification Division of the UN Office of Legal Affairs has proposed a framework convention format, which has seen support in the ILC and the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. The overall aim of this article is to provide an analysis of the potential forms of international regulation open to the ILC and states in the context of humanitarian responses to disasters. However to avoid enchanting the ILC draft articles with unwarranted power, any examination of form requires an understanding of the substantive subject matter of the planned international regulation. The article therefore provides an overview of the international legal regulation of humanitarian assistance following natural and human-made disasters, and the ILC’s work to date on the topic. It then examines two key issues that remain to be addressed by the ILC and representatives of states in the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. Drawing on the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, the development and implications of binding and non-binding international texts are examined, followed by an analysis of the suggested framework convention approach identified by the Special Rapporteur as a potential outcome of the ILC work.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

The psychology of exclusivity

L’amitié et l’amour romantique sont, de par leur nature, des relations exclusives. Cet article suggère que l’on peut mieux comprendre la nature de l’exclusivité dont il est question en comprenant l’erreur au coeur de la vision du raisonnement pratique que je nomme « le point de vue englobant » . Selon le PVE, pour que le raisonnement pratique soit rationnel, il doit s’agir d’un processus ayant pour but de choisir la meilleure alternative possible à partir d’une perspective qui est aussi détachée et objective que possible. Quoique cette vision cherche à être neutre à l’égard des porteurs de valeurs, elle incorpore en fait un biais contre les porteurs de valeurs qui ne peuvent être appréciés qu’à partir d’une perspective qui n’est pas détachée - qui ne peuvent être appréciés, par exemple, que par les agents qui sont engagés à long terme envers les valeurs en question. Dans le contexte des relations personnelles, de tels engagements tendent à donner naissance à la sorte d’exclusivité qui caractérise l’amitié et l’amour romantique ; ils empêchent l’agent d’être impartial entre les besoins, les intérêts, etc. de la personne qui lui est chère, d’une part, et ceux des autres, d’autre part. Je suggère que dans de tels contextes les besoins et les revendications des autres personnes peuvent être réduites au silence, de la même manière que, comme le suggère John McDowell, les tentations de l’immoralité sont, pour l’agent vertueux, réduites au silence.

Verbal proficiency as fitness indicator: Experimental and comparative research on the evolutionary psychology of language and verbal displays

Summary: Recent research on the evolution of language and verbal displays (e.g., Miller, 1999, 2000a, 2000b, 2002) indicated that language is not only the result of natural selection but serves as a sexually-selected fitness indicator that is an adaptation showing an individual’s suitability as a reproductive mate. Thus, language could be placed within the framework of concepts such as the handicap principle (Zahavi, 1975). There are several reasons for this position: Many linguistic traits are highly heritable (Stromswold, 2001, 2005), while naturally-selected traits are only marginally heritable (Miller, 2000a); men are more prone to verbal displays than women, who in turn judge the displays (Dunbar, 1996; Locke & Bogin, 2006; Lange, in press; Miller, 2000a; Rosenberg & Tunney, 2008); verbal proficiency universally raises especially male status (Brown, 1991); many linguistic features are handicaps (Miller, 2000a) in the Zahavian sense; most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age (Miller, 1999). However, neither an experimental study investigating the causal relation between verbal proficiency and attractiveness, nor a study showing a correlation between markers of literary and mating success existed. In the current studies, it was aimed to fill these gaps. In the first one, I conducted a laboratory experiment. Videos in which an actor and an actress performed verbal self-presentations were the stimuli for counter-sex participants. Content was always alike, but the videos differed on three levels of verbal proficiency. Predictions were, among others, that (1) verbal proficiency increases mate value, but that (2) this applies more to male than to female mate value due to assumed past sex-different selection pressures causing women to be very demanding in mate choice (Trivers, 1972). After running a two-factorial analysis of variance with the variables sex and verbal proficiency as factors, the first hypothesis was supported with high effect size. For the second hypothesis, there was only a trend going in the predicted direction. Furthermore, it became evident that verbal proficiency affects long-term more than short-term mate value. In the second study, verbal proficiency as a menstrual cycle-dependent mate choice criterion was investigated. Basically the same materials as in the former study were used with only marginal changes in the used questionnaire. The hypothesis was that fertile women rate high verbal proficiency in men higher than non-fertile women because of verbal proficiency being a potential indicator of “good genes”. However, no significant result could be obtained in support of the hypothesis in the current study. In the third study, the hypotheses were: (1) most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age. (2) The more works of high literary quality a male writer produces, the more mates and children he has. (3) Lyricists have higher mating success than non-lyric writers because of poetic language being a larger handicap than other forms of language. (4) Writing literature increases a man’s status insofar that his offspring shows a significantly higher male-to-female sex ratio than in the general population, as the Trivers-Willard hypothesis (Trivers & Willard, 1973) applied to literature predicts. In order to test these hypotheses, two famous literary canons were chosen. Extensive biographical research was conducted on the writers’ mating successes. The first hypothesis was confirmed; the second one, controlling for life age, only for number of mates but not entirely regarding number of children. The latter finding was discussed with respect to, among others, the availability of effective contraception especially in the 20th century. The third hypothesis was not satisfactorily supported. The fourth hypothesis was partially supported. For the 20th century part of the German list, the secondary sex ratio differed with high statistical significance from the ratio assumed to be valid for a general population.

Historical perspective of the Psychology of motivation

The psychology of motivation has a long tradition and history in psychology. In fact, we consider that, to a certain extent, understanding the history of the psychology of motivation is understanding great part of which has been psychology itself, since the main target of psychology was, and is, to try to explain behaviour, and the aim of psychology of motivation is to find out the causes of behaviour. In its long passage to the present time, there have been three perspectives that have monopolized most of the investigation: the biological, the behavioural and the cognitive. They are not excluding. Each one of them has been predominant in certain stages, although the same attention was paid to the other two. Nowadays, the biological and cognitive perspectives are those that receive greater attention from the investigators. The historical direction in the study of the psychology of motivation represents an important solution to know how the events that have given rise to the present consideration about the psychology of motivation were forged. To know the past helps us to understand the present, at the same time it allows us to hypothesise with great probability of success which will be the future in the study object.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on import and export flows using a gravity model (170 countries, 1962–2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, we find that the driving forces determining the impact of disastrous events are the level of democracy and the geographical size of the affected country. The less democratic and the smaller a country the greater is its loss due to a catastrophe. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced. Had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.2% of its imports and 3.7% of its exports. While democratic countries' exports suffer identical decreases, imports increase.

The psychology of containment: mis/representing emotional and behavioural difficulties in Australian schools

The number of students in special schools has increased at a rapid rate in some Australian states, due in part to increased enrolment under the categories of emotional disturbance (ED) and behaviour disorder (BD). Nonetheless, diagnostic distinctions between ED and BD are unclear. Moreover, despite international findings that students with particular backgrounds are over-represented in special schools, little is known about the backgrounds of students entering such settings in Australia. This study examined the government school enrolment data from New South Wales, the most populous of the Australian states. Linear and quadratic trends were used to describe the numbers and ages of students enrolled in special schools in the ED and BD categories. Changes between 1997 and 2007 were observed. Results showed an over-representation of boys that increased across the decade and a different pattern across age for boys and girls. Consistent with international findings, these results indicate that trends in special school placements are unrelated to disability prevalence in the population. Rather, it is suggested that schools act to preserve time and resources for others by removing their more challenging students: most typically, boys.