1000 resultados para Prospective econometrics


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Dhaka doesn’t have a mature transport system. Lacking in institutional arrangements, policy and planning, and law enforcement, the transport system operates has developed ad hoc and is situationally problematic. Absence of proper coordination between modes, poor public transport system, inadequate pedestrian facilities, and environmental degradation justify full consideration of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dhaka. BRT centres on sustainable transport principles. BRT is a system, which is capable to mitigate Dhaka’s transport problem if properly planned. In Strategic transport plan of Dhaka three BRT transport corridor has been proposed and BRT pre-feasibility study came up with one pilot corridor for early implementation of BRT. This paper first reviews international best practices then explores various BRT system packages and evaluates the suitability of these BRT packages by analyzing current bus service condition and physical and geometric configuration along the BRT pilot corridor. It concludes by proposing some BRT scenarios, which can be considered for further evaluation with respect to speed, delay, travel time and environmental pollution.

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Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

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Aim To identify relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and leg ulcer recurrence in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Background Chronic venous leg ulcers are slow to heal and frequently recur, resulting in years of suffering and intensive use of health care resources. Methods A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken with a sample of 80 patients with a venous leg ulcer recruited when their ulcer healed. Data were collected from 2006–2009 from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, preventive activities and psychosocial measures. Follow-up data were collected via questionnaires every three months for 12 months after healing. Median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results: There were 35 recurrences in a sample of 80 participants. Median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Conclusion Results indicate that leg elevation, compression hosiery, high levels of self-efficacy and strong social support will help prevent recurrence.

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Introduction. Surgical treatment of scoliosis is assessed in the spine clinic by the surgeon making numerous measurements on X-Rays as well as the rib hump. But it is important to understand which of these measures correlate with self-reported improvements in patients’ quality of life following surgery. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between patient satisfaction after thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis surgery and standard deformity correction measures using the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) adolescent questionnaire. Methods. A series of 100 consecutive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients received a single anterior rod via a keyhole approach at the Mater Children’s Hospital, Brisbane. Patients completed SRS outcomes questionnaires before surgery and again at 24 months after surgery. Multiple regression and t-tests were used to investigate the relationship between SRS scores and deformity correction achieved after surgery. Results. There were 94 females and 6 males with a mean age of 16.1 years. The mean Cobb angle improved from 52º pre-operatively to 21º for the instrumented levels post-operatively (59% correction) and the mean rib hump improved from 16º to 8º (51% correction). The mean total SRS score for the cohort was 99.4/120 which indicated a high level of satisfaction with the results of their scoliosis surgery. None of the deformity related parameters in the multiple regressions were significant. However, the twenty patients with the smallest Cobb angles after surgery reported significantly higher SRS scores than the twenty patients with the largest Cobb angles after surgery, but there was no difference on the basis of rib hump correction. Discussion. Patients undergoing thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis correction report good SRS scores which are comparable to those in previous studies. We suggest that the absence of any statistically significant difference in SRS scores between patients with and without rod or screw complications is because these complications are not associated with any clinically significant loss of correction in our patient group. The Cobb angle after surgery was the only significant predictor of patient satisfaction when comparing subgroups of patients with the largest and smallest Cobb angles after surgery.

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This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.

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Abstract Objective: To explore associations between physical activity and risk of falls and broken or fractured bones in community-dwelling older women. Design, setting and participants: This was a prospective observational survey with 3- and 6-year follow-ups. The sample included 8562 healthy, community-dwelling women, aged 70-75 years in 1996, who completed surveys as participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Outcomes were reports of a fall to the ground, injury from a fall, and broken or fractured bones in 1999 and 2002. The main predictor variable was physical activity level in 1996, categorized based on weekly frequency as none/very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Covariates were demographic and health-related variables. Logistic regression models were computed separately for each outcome in 1999 and 2002. Main results: In multivariable models, very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of a fall in 1999 (odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.93) and in 2002 (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92). High/very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of broken or fractured bones in 2002 (odds ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.96). No significant association was found between physical activity and injury from a fall. Conclusions: The results suggest that at least daily moderate to vigorous physical activity is required for the primary prevention of falls to the ground and broken or fractured bones in women aged 70-75 years.