The DACCIWA project: dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa

Massive economic and population growth, and urbanization are expected to lead to a tripling of anthropogenic emissions in southern West Africa (SWA) between 2000 and 2030. However, the impacts of this on human health, ecosystems, food security, and the regional climate are largely unknown. An integrated assessment is challenging due to (a) a superposition of regional effects with global climate change, (b) a strong dependence on the variable West African monsoon, (c) incomplete scientific understanding of interactions between emissions, clouds, radiation, precipitation, and regional circulations, and (d) a lack of observations. This article provides an overview of the DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project. DACCIWA will conduct extensive fieldwork in SWA to collect high-quality observations, spanning the entire process chain from surface-based natural and anthropogenic emissions to impacts on health, ecosystems, and climate. Combining the resulting benchmark dataset with a wide range of modeling activities will allow (a) assessment of relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes, (b) improvement of the monitoring of climate and atmospheric composition from space, and (c) development of the next generation of weather and climate models capable of representing coupled cloud-aerosol interactions. The latter will ultimately contribute to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions. DACCIWA collaborates closely with operational centers, international programs, policy-makers, and users to actively guide sustainable future planning for West Africa. It is hoped that some of DACCIWA’s scientific findings and technical developments will be applicable to other monsoon regions.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Communicating uncertainties in sea surface temperature

A project on sea surface temperature is generating new climate data records from satellite observations. The data are independent of in situ observations and are harmonious across satellite sensors to maximize stability and have realistic, context-sensitive uncertainty estimates at all spatial and temporal scales. The project, part of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI), now seeks to establish a useful method for communicating uncertainty in sea surface temperatures. This goal was the impetus for a workshop held in November 2014 in Exeter in the United Kingdom, summarised in this article.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-national compartability of burden of disease estimates:the European disability weights project

Objective: To investigate the sources of cross-national variation in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the European Disability
Weights Project.

Methods: Disability weights for 15 disease stages were derived empirically in five countries by means of a standardized procedure and the cross-national differences in visual analogue scale (VAS) scores were analysed. For each country the burden of dementia in women, used as an illustrative example, was estimated in DALYs. An analysis was performed of the relative effects of cross-national variations in demography, epidemiology and disability weights on DALY estimates.

Findings: Cross-national comparison of VAS scores showed almost identical ranking orders. After standardization for population size and age structure of the populations, the DALY rates per 100 000 women ranged from 1050 in France to 1404 in the Netherlands. Because of uncertainties in the epidemiological data, the extent to which these differences reflected true variation between countries was difficult to estimate. The use of European rather than country-specific disability weights did not lead to a significant change in the burden of disease estimates for dementia.

Conclusions: Sound epidemiological data are the first requirement for burden of disease estimation and relevant between-countries comparisons. DALY estimates for dementia were relatively insensitive to differences in disability weights between European countries.

Integrated approach of sustainability and climate change adaptation in a metro project

The new Melbourne Metro underground rail project will leave a legacy long into the future, with an estimated design life which will extend beyond 100 years. As such it is extremely important to consider the mitigation of any environmental impacts, providing a sustainable outcome. It is also essential to pre-empt required adaptation of buildings and infrastructure in the future against the impact of changes in the local climate. Designing a metro system in the age of climate change provides the opportunity to go beyond standard specifications and compliance requirements, creating innovative sustainable and climate resilient design outcomes. On the contrary, constructing an underground metro project presents various design challenges fuelled by complex constraints, many uncertainties and risks. This paper will review the methodology used to integrate environmentally sustainable principles and resilient design for climate change adaptation, within the concept development phase of the Melbourne Metro Underground Rail Project.

Development and application of a GC system for NMHC analyses of air samples from the CARIBIC aircraft project

The subject of this thesis is the development of a Gaschromatography (GC) system for non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and measurement of samples within the project CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container, www.caribic-atmospheric.com). Air samples collected at cruising altitude from the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere contain hydrocarbons at low levels (ppt range), which imposes substantial demands on detection limits. Full automation enabled to maintain constant conditions during the sample processing and analyses. Additionally, automation allows overnight operation thus saving time. A gas chromatography using flame ionization detection (FID) together with the dual column approach enables simultaneous detection with almost equal carbon atom response for all hydrocarbons except for ethyne. The first part of this thesis presents the technical descriptions of individual parts of the analytical system. Apart from the sample treatment and calibration procedures, the sample collector is described. The second part deals with analytical performance of the GC system by discussing tests that had been made. Finally, results for measurement flight are assessed in terms of quality of the data and two flights are discussed in detail. Analytical performance is characterized using detection limits for each compound, using uncertainties for each compound, using tests of calibration mixture conditioning and carbon dioxide trap to find out their influence on analyses, and finally by comparing the responses of calibrated substances during period when analyses of the flights were made. Comparison of both systems shows good agreement. However, because of insufficient capacity of the CO2 trap the signal of one column was suppressed due to breakthroughed carbon dioxide so much that its results appeared to be unreliable. Plausibility tests for the internal consistency of the given data sets are based on common patterns exhibited by tropospheric NMHCs. All tests show that samples from the first flights do not comply with the expected pattern. Additionally, detected alkene artefacts suggest potential problems with storing or contamination within all measurement flights. Two last flights # 130-133 and # 166-169 comply with the tests therefore their detailed analysis is made. Samples were analyzed in terms of their origin (troposphere vs. stratosphere, backward trajectories), their aging (NMHCs ratios) and detected plumes were compared to chemical signatures of Asian outflows. In the last chapter a future development of the presented system with focus on separation is drawn. An extensive appendix documents all important aspects of the dissertation from theoretical introduction through illustration of sample treatment to overview diagrams for the measured flights.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Improving Cervical Cancer Nodal Boost Radiation Therapy by Quantifying Uncertainties and Exploring Advanced Radiation Therapy Modalities

Radiation therapy for patients with intact cervical cancer is frequently delivered using primary external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) followed by two fractions of intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). Although the tumor is the primary radiation target, controlling microscopic disease in the lymph nodes is just as critical to patient treatment outcome. In patients where gross lymphadenopathy is discovered, an extra EBRT boost course is delivered between the two ICBT fractions. Since the nodal boost is an addendum to primary EBRT and ICBT, the prescription and delivery must be performed considering previously delivered dose. This project aims to address the major issues of this complex process for the purpose of improving treatment accuracy while increasing dose sparing to the surrounding normal tissues. Because external beam boosts to involved lymph nodes are given prior to the completion of ICBT, assumptions must be made about dose to positive lymph nodes from future implants. The first aim of this project was to quantify differences in nodal dose contribution between independent ICBT fractions. We retrospectively evaluated differences in the ICBT dose contribution to positive pelvic nodes for ten patients who had previously received external beam nodal boost. Our results indicate that the mean dose to the pelvic nodes differed by up to 1.9 Gy between independent ICBT fractions. The second aim is to develop and validate a volumetric method for summing dose of the normal tissues during prescription of nodal boost. The traditional method of dose summation uses the maximum point dose from each modality, which often only represents the worst case scenario. However, the worst case is often an exaggeration when highly conformal therapy methods such as intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) are used. We used deformable image registration algorithms to volumetrically sum dose for the bladder and rectum and created a voxel-by-voxel validation method. The mean error in deformable image registration results of all voxels within the bladder and rectum were 5 and 6 mm, respectively. Finally, the third aim explored the potential use of proton therapy to reduce normal tissue dose. A major physical advantage of protons over photons is that protons stop after delivering dose in the tumor. Although theoretically superior to photons, proton beams are more sensitive to uncertainties caused by interfractional anatomical variations, and must be accounted for during treatment planning to ensure complete target coverage. We have demonstrated a systematic approach to determine population-based anatomical margin requirements for proton therapy. The observed optimal treatment angles for common iliac nodes were 90° (left lateral) and 180° (posterior-anterior [PA]) with additional 0.8 cm and 0.9 cm margins, respectively. For external iliac nodes, lateral and PA beams required additional 0.4 cm and 0.9 cm margins, respectively. Through this project, we have provided radiation oncologists with additional information about potential differences in nodal dose between independent ICBT insertions and volumetric total dose distribution in the bladder and rectum. We have also determined the margins needed for safe delivery of proton therapy when delivering nodal boosts to patients with cervical cancer.

Propagation of Cross-Section Uncertainties in Criticality Calculations in the Framework of UAM-Phase I Using MCNPX-2.7e and SCALE-6.1

In the framework of the OECD/NEA project on Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of LWRs, several approaches and codes are being used to deal with the exercises proposed in Phase I, “Specifications and Support Data for Neutronics Cases.” At UPM, our research group treats these exercises with sensitivity calculations and the “sandwich formula” to propagate cross-section uncertainties. Two different codes are employed to calculate the sensitivity coefficients of to cross sections in criticality calculations: MCNPX-2.7e and SCALE-6.1. The former uses the Differential Operator Technique and the latter uses the Adjoint-Weighted Technique. In this paper, the main results for exercise I-2 “Lattice Physics” are presented for the criticality calculations of PWR. These criticality calculations are done for a TMI fuel assembly at four different states: HZP-Unrodded, HZP-Rodded, HFP-Unrodded, and HFP-Rodded. The results of the two different codes above are presented and compared. The comparison proves a good agreement between SCALE-6.1 and MCNPX-2.7e in uncertainty that comes from the sensitivity coefficients calculated by both codes. Differences are found when the sensitivity profiles are analysed, but they do not lead to differences in the uncertainty.

Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.