How contractors price risk in bids: theory and practice

Formal and analytical models that contractors can use to assess and price project risk at the tender stage have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used in practice. Introducing more models would, therefore, not necessarily help. A better understanding is needed of how contractors arrive at a bid price in practice, and how, and in what circumstances, risk apportionment actually influences pricing levels. More than 60 proposed risk models for contractors that are published in journals were examined and classified. Then exploratory interviews with five UK contractors and documentary analyses on how contractors price work generally and risk specifically were carried out to help in comparing the propositions from the literature to what contractors actually do. No comprehensive literature on the real bidding processes used in practice was found, and there is no evidence that pricing is systematic. Hence, systematic risk and pricing models for contractors may have no justifiable basis. Contractors process their bids through certain tendering gateways. They acknowledge the risk that they should price. However, the final settlement depends on a set of complex, micro-economic factors. Hence, risk accountability may be smaller than its true cost to the contractor. Risk apportionment occurs at three stages of the whole bid-pricing process. However, analytical approaches tend not to incorporate this, although they could.

Risk pricing practices in finance, insurance and construction

A review of current risk pricing practices in the financial, insurance and construction sectors is conducted through a comprehensive literature review. The purpose was to inform a study on risk and price in the tendering processes of contractors: specifically, how contractors take account of risk when they are calculating their bids for construction work. The reference to mainstream literature was in view of construction management research as a field of application rather than a fundamental academic discipline. Analytical models are used for risk pricing in the financial sector. Certain mathematical laws and principles of insurance are used to price risk in the insurance sector. construction contractors and practitioners are described to traditionally price allowances for project risk using mechanisms such as intuition and experience. Project risk analysis models have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used because of problems practitioners face when confronted with them. A discussion of practices across the three sectors shows that the construction industry does not approach risk according to the sophisticated mechanisms of the two other sectors. This is not a poor situation in itself. However, knowledge transfer from finance and insurance can help construction practitioners. But also, formal risk models for contractors should be informed by the commercial exigencies and unique characteristics of the construction sector.

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.

Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

The future obligations of "project manager" as construction integral director (DIPE) in the law of buildings construction in spain (LOE)

In the year 1999 approves the Law of Construction Building (LOE, in Spanish) to regulate a sector such as construction, which contained some shortcomings from the legal point of view. Currently, the LOE has been in force 12 years, changing the spanish world of the construction, due to influenced by internationalization. Within the LOE, there regulating the different actors involved in the construction building, as the Projects design, the Director of Construction, the developer, The builder, Director of execution of the construction (actor only in Spain, similar as construcion engineer and abroad in), control entities and the users, but lacks figure Project manager will assume the delegation of the promoter helping and you organize, direct and management the process. This figure assumes that the market and contracts are not legally regulated in Spain, then should define and establish its regulation in the LOE. (Spain Construction Law) The translation in spanish of the words "Project Manager is owed to Professor Rafael de Heredia in his book Integrated Project Management, as agent acting on behalf of the organization and promoter assuming control of the project, ie Integraded Project Management . Already exist in Spain, AEDIP (Spanish Association Integrated of Project Construction management) which comprises the major companies in “Project Management” in Spain, and MeDIP (Master in Integrated Construction Project) the largest and most advanced studies at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, in "Construction Project Management" they teach which is also in Argentina. The Integrated Project ("Project Management") applied to the construction process is a methodological technique that helps to organize, control and manage the resources of the promoters in the building process. When resources are limited (which is usually most situations) to manage them efficiently becomes very important. Well, we find that in this situation, the resources are not only limited, but it is limited, so a comprehensive control and monitoring of them becomes not only important if not crucial. The alternative of starting from scratch with a team that specializes in developing these follow directly intervening to ensure that scarce resources are used in the best possible way requires the use of a specific methodology (Manual DIP, Matrix Foreign EDR breakdown structure EDP Project, Risk Management and Control, Design Management, et ..), that is the methodology used by "Projects managers" to ensure that the initial objectives of the promoters or investors are met and all actors in process, from design to construction company have the mind aim of the project will do, trying to get their interests do not prevail over the interests of the project. Among the agents listed in the building process, "Project Management" or DIPE (Director Comprehensive building process, a proposed name for possible incorporation into the LOE, ) currently not listed as such in the LOE (Act on Construction Planning ), one of the agents that exist within the building process is not regulated from the legal point of view, no obligations, ie, as is required by law to have a project, a builder, a construction management, etc. DIPE only one who wants to hire you as have been advanced knowledge of their services by the clients they have been hiring these agents, there being no legal obligation as mentioned above, then the market is dictating its ruling on this new figure, as if it were necessary, he was not hired and eventually disappeared from the building process. As the aim of this article is regular the process and implement the name of DIPE in the Spanish Law of buildings construction (LOE)

Managing risk in a large rural electrification programme in India

Rural electrification projects and programmes in many countries have suffered from design, planning, implementation and operational flaws as a result of ineffective project planning and lack of systematic project risk analysis. This paper presents a hierarchical risk-management framework for effectively managing large-scale development projects. The proposed framework first identifies, with the involvement of stakeholders, the risk factors for a rural electrification programme at three different levels (national, state and site). Subsequently it develops a qualitative risk prioritising scheme through probability and severity mapping and provides mitigating measures for most vulnerable risks. The study concludes that the hierarchical risk-management approach provides an effective framework for managing large-scale rural electrification programmes. © IAIA 2007.

Managing risk in enterprise resource planning projects

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects are strategic and capital intensive, so failure may be costly and even cause bankruptcy of companies. Previous studies have proposed ways for improving implementation, but they are mostly generic and follow standardized project management practices as specified in various standards (e.g. the “project management body of knowledge” of the Project Management Institute). Because ERP is interdisciplinary (involving change management, project management and information technology management), it warrants a customized approach to managing risks throughout the life cycle of implementation and operation. Through a practical case study, this paper demonstrates a qualitative, user friendly approach to ERP project risk management. Firstly, through a literature review it identifies various risk factors in ERP implementation. Secondly, the risk management practices of a UK-based multinational consulting company in one of its clients are evaluated. The risk factors from the case study organization and literature are then compared and discussed.

Project financing 8th edition

The eighth edition is a fundamental and essential update to the seventh edition published in 2000. This new edition examines a comprehensive range of existing and newer topics that are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in the project finance and leasing industries. Contributors are experienced academics and practitioners. Since the first edition was published, the financial markets have undergone tremendous upheavals and many new structures and instruments have been created to meet the financing needs of business. This edition considers the wider world of project finance, applicable to such diverse situations as venture capital and leveraged buyouts, and using new approaches such as Islamic finance techniques. The eighth edition is an essential and over-due update to the previous edition published in 2000. The eighth edition updates a comprehensive review of financial and related topics which are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in financial modelling of a project, risk management and the private finance initiatives. This is a comprehensive and practical book full of advice and tips for successful project financing, including leasing, offering a clear, easy to understand guide to a complex area with examples. The topic coverage is well organized and complete moving from the fundamentals to the more complex issues. There is an extensive glossary to support readers. Finally the use of 12 practitioner case studies brings many of these complex issues to life. This is the new edition of the clear, easy-to-understand industry-standard text on project financing. With a good overview of a broad area and using principles of project financing to explain complex structures, this book includes lots of examples and case studies (including Eurotunnel, Dabhol, multiple Paiton deals and other recent deals along with subsequent developments) to show the concepts in use, examine outcomes and to ensure you understand important issues such as effective project structuring and financing, financial modelling for project valuation, and risk management. Substantially updated and expanded to provide the latest developments in all aspects of project financing. An important manual reference, this book is a must-have for every project financier's desk. The text unites the domain of project financing with a wealth of project management techniques, supported by diagrams and charts and other pictorial features, where appropriate. All these supporting features facilitate a better understanding of the accompanying text for the reader. In many chapters there are diagrams to clarify the specific transaction structure discussed in the accompanying text. These diagrams enable the reader to get a very clear idea of the transaction structure, which is particularly useful where it is complex or unusual. There are also a number of checklists to assist stakeholders in the project and resource management of complex project financings. The new financial modelling chapters allow exploration of some of the pitfalls project models encounter, challenging the accurate replication of the project cash flows for stakeholders to evaluate. In the later new risk management chapters, worked examples are included to illustrate the techniques in practice. The new public private partnership/private finance initiatives chapter introduces readers to this new approach to public projects. References are made to useful websites throughout the text. Cases are included at the end of the main text to encourage examination of real-life examples of project financing in practice and also highlight specific issues of current interest. The book will be helpful to project finance sponsors, lawyers, host governments, bankers and providers of capital

The complements towards developing a new risk management framework and Its applicability to the Nigerian power sector

The availability of regular supply has been identified as one of the major stimulants for the growth and development of any nation and is thus important for the economic well-being of a nation. The problems of the Nigerian power sector stems from a lot of factors culminating in her slow developmental growth and inability to meet the power demands of her citizens regardless of the abundance of human and natural resources prevalent in the nation. The research therefore had the main aim of investigating the importance and contributions of risk management to the success of projects specific to the power sector. To achieve this aim it was pertinent to examine the efficacy of risk management process in practice and elucidate the various risks typically associated with projects (Construction, Contractual, Political, Financial, Design, Human resource and Environmental risk factors) in the power sector as well as determine the current situation of risk management practice in Nigeria. To address this factors inhibiting the proficiency of the overarching and prevailing issue which have only been subject to limited in-depth academic research, a rigorous mixed research method was adopted (quantitative and qualitative data analysis). A review of the Nigeria power sector was also carried out as a precursor to the data collection stage. Using purposive sampling technique, respondents were identified and a questionnaire survey was administered. The research hypotheses were tested using inferential statistics (Pearson correlation, Chi-square test, t-test and ANOVA technique) and the findings revealed the need for the development of a new risk management implementation Framework. The proposed Framework was tested within a company project, for interpreting the dynamism and essential benefits of risk management with the aim of improving the project performances (time), reducing the level of fragmentation (quality) and improving profitability (cost) within the Nigerian power sector in order to bridge a gap between theory and practice. It was concluded that Nigeria’s poor risk management practices have prevented it from experiencing strong growth and development. The study however, concludes that the successful implementation of the developed risk management framework may help it to attain this status by enabling it to become more prepared and flexible, to face challenges that previously led to project failures, and thus contributing to its prosperity. The research study provides an original contribution theoretically, methodologically and practically which adds to the project risk management body of knowledge and to the Nigerian power sector.

A kockázat mint látens fogalom (Risk - A latent concept)

A kockázat statisztikai értelemben közvetlenül nem mérhető, azaz látens fogalom éppen úgy, mint a gazdasági fejlettség, a szervezettség vagy az intelligencia. Mi bennünk a közös? A kockázat is komplex fogalom, több mérhető tényezőt foglal magában, és bár sok tényezőjét mérjük, fel sem tételezzük, hogy pontos eredményt kapunk. Ebben a megközelítésben az elemző kezdettől fogva tudja, hogy hiányos az ismerete. Ezt Bélyácz [2011[ nyomán úgy is megfogalmazhatjuk: „A statisztikusok tudják, hogy valamit éppen nem tudnak.” / === / From statistical point of view risk, like economic development is a latent concept. Typically there is no one number which can explicitly estimate or project risk. Variance is used as a proxy in finance to measure risk. Other professions are using other concepts for risk. Underwriting is the most important step in insurance business to analyse exposure. Actuaries evaluate average claim size and the probability of claim to calculate risk. Bayesian credibility can be used to calculate insurance premium combining frequencies and empirical knowledge, as a prior. Different types of risks can be classified into a risk matrix to separate insurable risk. Only this category can be analysed by multivariate statistical methods, which are based on statistical data. Sample size and frequency of events are relevant not only in insurance, but in pension and investment decisions as well.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

Plano de negócios para a construção de uma unidade fabril de misturas complementares

A Cooperativa Agrícola de Vila do Conde desenvolve um negócio de fabrico e comercialização de misturas complementares para alimentação bovina, sobretudo para vacas leiteiras. Há alguns anos a esta parte, esta Cooperativa sabe que terá que deslocalizar a unidade fabril existente devido a imposições da Direção Geral de Alimentação e Veterinária, relacionadas com questões de natureza ambiental. A necessidade de ser realizado um novo investimento, para garantir a sustentabilidade do negócio mais rentável gerido por esta Cooperativa, levou a pensar-se na possibilidade de construção de uma nova unidade fabril, de dimensão superior, capaz de servir outras cooperativas, visando o desejado entendimento das cooperativas em torno de um objetivo comum, logrando a obtenção de economias de escala, de extrema importância para a sobrevivência do setor leiteiro na região do Entre Douro e Minho. Para o efeito será constituída uma nova sociedade por quotas, designada por AGRIVIL XXI, Lda., de capital exclusivamente cooperativo, possibilitando que, em cada momento, se possa aferir a situação económica e financeira do negócio de forma mais rigorosa e autónoma. Esta realidade foi conducente à elaboração do presente Plano de Negócios que se espera profícuo para definição dos objetivos e metas a atingir num futuro próximo pela Cooperativa Agrícola de Vila do Conde. As análises de viabilidade e do risco do projeto demonstraram estarem criadas as condições de aceitação do mesmo, sendo expectável um VAL de 1.371.764 euros, uma TIR de 12,04% e um pay-back period próximo dos 11 anos. No entanto é notório a existência de um risco inerente ao investimento na medida em que o montante dos fluxos gerados tende a aproximar-se dos fluxos investidos, não gerando um excedente de riqueza significativo.

EPCM-toimitustapamallin kehittäminen Kvaerner Power Oy:n voimalaitostoimituksiin

Tämän diplomityön päämääränäoli laatia suunnitelma voimalaitoksen toimittamiseksi EPCM-toimitustavalla. Työn keskeisiksi tavoitteiksi asetettiin EPCM-toimitustapaan perustuvan toimitustapakonseptin muodostaminen, toimituksiin liittyvien terminologian selkeyttäminen ja harmonisointi sekä voimalaitoksen suhteellisen kustannusrakenteen laatiminen. Työssä tutkittiin voimalaitostoimituksissa tavanomaisesti käytettyjä sopimustyyppejä, kiinteähintaista sopimusta ja kustannusvoittolisäsopimusta sekä harvinaisemmin käytettyjä kattohinta- ja tavoitekustannussopimusta. Vallitsevat toimitustavat, EPC- ja EPCM-toimitustavat sekä monitoimittajatapa, esiteltiin ja niiden vahvuudet sekä heikkoudet selvitettiin. Projektin ominaisuuksilla, markkinoilla ja tilaajan kyvyllä, asiantuntemuksella sekä resursseilla todettiin olevan vaikutusta toimitustavan valintaan. Lisäksi tehtiin katsaus voimalaitostoimitusten kehitystrendeihin ja projektin riskienhallintaan. Voimalaitoksen laitosjärjestelmäjako kehitettiin ja sitä soveltamalla määritettiin voimalaitoksen suhteellinen kustannusrakenne. Kattilaitoksen osuus voimalaitoksen rakentamiskustannuksista todettiin merkittävimmäksi. Laitosjärjestelmien laitekustannusten havaittiin olevan korkeimmat. EPCM-toimitustapamalli kehitettiin teoriaosan pohjalta ja sen rakenne, organisaatio, sopimustyypit ja -suhteetsekä toimituksen riskien jako kuvattiin. Voimalaitoksen rakentamiskustannuksia vertailtiin eri toimitustavoilla ja EPCM-toimitustapamalli todettiin EPC-toimitustapaa edullisemmaksi.