Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

Predictors of Lethality in Severe Leptospirosis in Urban Brazil

To ascertain prognostic factors associated with fatal outcomes in severe leptospirosis, a retrospective case-control study was done using population-based surveillance data. Centralized death certificate reporting of leptospirosis mortality was combined with details of patients` hospitalizations, which were obtained from hospitals representing all sectors of Sao Paulo city. Among identified leptospirosis cases, 89 lethal cases and 281 survivor cases were analyzed. Predictors of death included age > 40 years, development of oliguria, platelet count < 70,000/mu L, creatinine > 3 mg/dL. and pulmonary involvement. The latter was the strongest risk Factor with all estimated odds ratio of 6.0 (95% confidence interval: 3.0-12.0). Serologic findings with highest titer against Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni did not show significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Lung involvement was an important predictor of death in leptospirosis in Sao Paulo, of relevance in leptospirosis-endemic regions where this complication is common.

Prognostic Value of Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography With Early Injection of Atropine With Versus Without Chronic Beta-Blocker Therapy in Patients With Known or Suspected Coronary Heart Disease

Although a new protocol of dobutamine stress echocardiography with the early injection of atropine (EA-DSE) has been demonstrated to be useful in reducing adverse effects and increasing the number of effective tests and to have similar accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) compared with conventional protocols, no data exist regarding its ability to predict long-term events. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of EA-DSE and the effects of the long-term use of beta blockers on it. A retrospective evaluation of 844 patients who underwent EA-DSE for known or suspected CAD was performed; 309 (37%) were receiving beta blockers. During a median follow-up period of 24 months, 102 events (12%) occurred. On univariate analysis, predictors of events were the ejection fraction (p <0.001), male gender (p <0.001), previous myocardial infarction (p <0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy (p = 0.021), calcium channel blocker therapy (p = 0.034), and abnormal results on EA-DSE (p <0.001). On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of events were male gender (relative risk [RR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 2.81, p = 0.013) and abnormal results on EA-DSE (RR 4.45, 95% CI 2.84 to 7.01, p <0.0001). Normal results on EA-DSE with P blockers were associated with a nonsignificant higher incidence of events than normal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers (RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.87, p = 0.54). Abnormal results on EA-DSE with beta blockers had an RR of 4.97 (95% CI 2.79 to 8.87, p <0.001) compared with normal results, while abnormal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers had an RR of 5.96 (95% CI 3.41 to 10.44, p <0.001) for events, with no difference between groups (p = 0.36). In conclusion, the detection of fixed or inducible wall motion abnormalities during EA-DSE was an independent predictor of long-term events in patients with known or suspected CAD. The prognostic value of EA-DSE was not affected by the long-term use of beta blockers. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1291-1295)

Echocardiographic predictors of functional capacity in endomyocardial fibrosis patients

Endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF) is a restrictive cardiomyopathy manifested mainly by diastolic heart failure. It is recognized that diastole is an important determinant of exercise capacity. The purpose of this study was to determine whether resting echocardiographic parameters might predict oxygen consumption (VO(2p)) by ergoespirometry and the prognostic role of functional capacity in EMF patients. A total of 32 patients with biventricular EMF (29 women, 55.3 +/- 11.4 years) were studied by echocardiography and ergoespirometry. The relationship between the echocardiographic indexes and the percentage of predicted VO(2p) (%VO(2p)) was investigated by the `stepwise` linear regression analysis. The median VO(2p) was 11 +/- 3 mL/kg/min and the %VO(2p) was 53 +/- 9%. There was a correlation of %VO(2p) with an average of A` at four sites of the mitral annulus (A` peak, r = 0.471, P = 0.023), E`/A` of the inferior mitral annulus (r = -0.433, P = 0.044), and myocardial performance index (r = -0.352, P = 0.048). On multiple regression analysis, only A` peak was an independent predictor of %VO(2p) (%VO(2p)= 26.34 + 332.44 x A` peak). EMF patients with %VO(2p)< 53% had an increased mortality rate with a relative risk of 8.47. In EMF patients, diastolic function plays an important role in determining the limitations to exercise and %VO(2p) has a prognostic value.

Prognostic value of left atrial volume in patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography for known or suspected coronary artery disease

Background Left atrial volume indexed (LAVI) has been reported as a predictor of cardiovascular events. We sought to determine the prognostic value of LAVI for predicting the outcome of patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods From January 2000 to July 2005, we studied 981 patients who underwent DSE and off-line measurements of LAVI. The value of DSE over clinical and LAVI data was examined using a stepwise log-rank test. Results During a median follow-up of 24 months, 56 (6%) events occurred. By univariate analysis, predictors of events were male sex, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter indexed, LAVI, and abnormal DSE. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors were LVEF (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00), LAVI (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05), and abnormal DSE (RR = 2.70, 95% CI 1.28-5.69). In an incremental multivariate model, LAVI was additional to clinical data for predicting events (chi(2) 36.8, P < .001). The addition of DSE to clinical and LAVI yielded incremental information (chi(2) 55.3, P < .001). The 3-year event-free survival in patients with normal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2) was 96%; with abnormal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2), 91%; with normal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2), 83%; and with abnormal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2) 51%. Conclusion Left atrial volume indexed provides independent prognostic information in patients who underwent DSE for known or suspected CAD. Among patients with normal DSE, those with larger LAVI had worse outcome, and among patients with abnormal DSE, LAVI was still predictive. (Am Heart J 2008; 156:1110-6.)

Predictors of higher number of stages in Mohs micrographic surgery for the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma of the head

BACKGROUND - Squamous cell carcinomas of the skin of the bead are better treated with Mobs micrographic surgery which has the lowest recurrence rates and allows spare normal tissue. There are some characteristics of squamous cell carcinoma that can be related to a higher number of surgical stages. OBJECTIVE - To study characteristic of head squamous cell carcinoma that predicts a higher number of Mohs surgical stages. METHODS - A retrospective analysis of 51 squamous cell carcinomas of the bead treated with Mobs surgery was performed to determine risk factors for a higher number of surgical stages. The characteristics analyzed were clinical limits, morphology, recurrence, histological differentiation and size and compared to the number of surgical stages. The analysis was performed by Fisher`s exact test and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS - The recurrent squamous cell carcinomas showed a tendency for a higher number of stages (p=0,081). The Odds Ratio for a higher number of Mobs stages was three for inaccurate limits; although not statistically significant, it corroborates clinical and previous publication. CONCLUSION - Clinical characteristics of squamous cell carcinoma as recurrence and inaccurate limits would not predict, but could indicate tendency of a higher number of Mobs micrographic surgery stages.

Nodules Less Than 20 mm and Vascular Invasion are Predictors of Survival in Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: The aims of this study were to analyze the overall survival of patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identify independent pretreatment predictors of survival in Brazil. Methods: Between 1998 and 2003, 74 patients with cirrhosis and small HCC were evaluated. Predictors of survival were identified using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the Cox model. Results: The overall survival rates were 80%, 41%, and 17% at 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively. The mean length of follow-up after HCC diagnosis was 23 months (median 22 mo, range: I to 86 mo) for the entire group. Univariate analysis showed that model for endstage liver disease (MELD) score (P = 0.016), Child-Pugh classification (P = 0.007), alpha-fetoprotein level (P = 0.006), number of nodules (P = 0.041), tumor diameter (P = 0.009), and vascular invasion (P < 0.0001) were significant predictors Of Survival. Cox regression analysis identified vascular invasion (relative risk = 14.60, confidence interval 95% = 3.3-64.56, P < 0.001) and tumor size > 20 mm (relative risk = 2.14, confidence interval 95% = 1.07-4.2, P = 0.030) as independent predictors of decreased survival. Treatment of HCC was related to increased overall survival. Conclusions: Identification of HCC smaller than 20 mm is associated with longer survival. Presence of vascular invasion, even in small tumors, maybe associated with poor prognosis. Treatment of small tumors Of LIP to 20 mm diameter is related to increased survival.

Prognostic heterogeneity among patients with chronic stable coronary disease: determinants of long-term mortality after treatment with percutaneous intervention

Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of death in a large population of patients with stable coronary disease treated with percutaneous intervention. Methods and results: The study population comprised 1,276 patients with chronic angina or silent ischaemia who underwent elective coronary angioplasty. Baseline and in-hospital mortality data were prospectively collected for all patients during the index hospitalisation. Post-discharge outcome was assessed at out-patient clinic, by review of the patients` records, or direct phone contact. Deaths were classified as cardiac and non-cardiac. Age, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure with NYHA class Ill, triple-vessel disease, and procedural success (i.e. angiographic success for all lesions in the absence of pen-procedural infarction) remained as multivariate independent predictors of death. For the entire population 4-year cumulative all-cause and cardiac mortality were respectively 5.4% and 4.1%. Four-year mortality for patients without any multivariate predictor was 2.4%, while for patients with two or more predictors the death rate was 16.3% after four years. Conclusions: Patients with stable coronary disease undergoing percutaneous treatment have an overall low mortality rate after four years. Nevertheless, stable patients comprise a heterogeneous population in terms of risk profile, ranging from patients at very low risk of late death to individuals with a poor long-term prognosis.

The Prognostic Impact of Renal Failure in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION: Renal insufficiency (RI) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patients (P) with coronary artery disease and in P submitted to angioplasty. In ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEAMI), this impact has not been well demonstrated. AIM: To evaluate the impact of RI in P with STEAMI. METHODS: We evaluated 160 P admitted with STEAMI, mean age of 62+/-14 years, 76% male. We determined creatinine levels on admission. RI was defined as a level >1.5 mg/dl. Analysis of clinical, electrocardiographic and laboratory variables was performed, in relation to the endpoint defined as the occurrence of death at 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: There were 16 deaths (10%) at 30-day follow-up. P with RI (n=21) were older (68+/-11 vs 61+/-14 years, p<0.001), more often had diabetes (57 vs 24 %, p=0.004) and presented more often with Killip class > or =2 (57 vs 12%, p<0.001). The use of statins (62 vs 83%, p=0.05) and beta-blockers (24 vs 65%, p<0.001) was lower in P with RI. Mortality was higher in RI P (62 vs 2%, p<0.001). The univariate predictors of death were age > or =75 years, diabetes, Killip class > or =2 on admission, RI, non-use of statins and beta-blockers and use of diuretics. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death at 30 days were RI (HR 29.6, 95% CI 6.3-139.9, p<0.001) and non-use of beta-blockers (HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-1.01, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: In P admitted for STEAMI, the presence of RI was an independent predictor of death at 30 days whereas the usage of beta-blockers was protective.

Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Prognostic Factors in Adult Patients with Idiopathic IgA Nephropathy

Introduction. IgA nephropathy is the dominant primary glomerular disease found throughout the majority of the world’s developed countries. Accurately identifying patients who are at risk of progressive disease is challenging. We aimed to characterise clinical and histological features that predict poor prognosis in adults. Patients and Methods. We performed a single-centre retrospective observational study of biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy. The primary outcome was renal survival and death from any cause, and the secondary outcome was proteinuria remission. Results. Data from 49 cases were available for analysis with a median follow-up of 4 years. There were no deaths. Univariable analyses identified acute renal failure, low estimated glomerular filtration rate for ≥3 months (low eGFR), arterial hypertension, baseline proteinuria, glomerular sclerosis >50% and interstitial fibrosis >50% as poor prognostic markers. Low eGFR persisted significant by multivariable model that used only clinical parameters. Multivariable models with histopathologic parameters observed that tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis >50% was independently associated with the primary outcome. Proteinuria remission throughout follow-up had no prognostic value in our revision. Conclusions. Two independent predictors of poor renal survival at time of biopsy were found: low eGFR and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis >50%.

Clinical and echocardiographic predictors of mortality in chagasic cardiomyopathy - systematic review

Diagnosis, prognosis and evaluation of death risk in Chagas cardiomyopathy still constitute a challenge due to the diversity of manifestations, which determine the importance of using echocardiography, tissue Doppler and biomarkers. To evaluate, within a systematic review, clinical and echocardiographic profiles of patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, which may be related to worse prognosis and major mortality risk. To perform the systematic review, we used Medline (via PubMed), LILACS and SciELO databases to identify 82 articles published from 1991 to 2012, with the following descriptors: echocardiography, mortality and Chagas disease. We selected 31 original articles, involving diagnostic and prognostic methods. The importance of Chagas disease has increased due to its emergence in Europe and United States, but most evidence came from Brazil. Among the predictors of worse prognosis and higher mortality risk are morphological and functional alterations in the left and right ventricles, evaluated by conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler, as well as the increase in brain natriuretic peptide and troponin I concentrations. Recently, the evaluations of dyssynchrony, dysautonomia, as well as strain, strain rate and myocardial twisting were added to the diagnostic arsenal for the early differentiation of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Developments in imaging and biochemical diagnostic procedures have enabled more detailed cardiac evaluations, which demonstrate the early involvement of both ventricles, allowing a more accurate assessment of the mortality risk in Chagas disease.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio are Predictors of Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are inflammatory markers used as prognostic factors in various diseases. The aims of this study were to compare the PLR and the NLR of heart failure (HF) patients with those of age-sex matched controls, to evaluate the predictive value of those markers in detecting HF, and to demonstrate the effect of NLR and PLR on mortality in HF patients during follow-up. Methods: This study included 56 HF patients and 40 controls without HF. All subjects underwent transthoracic echocardiography to evaluate cardiac functions. The NLR and the PLR were calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count and as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count, respectively. All HF patients were followed after their discharge from the hospital to evaluate mortality, cerebrovascular events, and re-hospitalization. Results: The NLR and the PLR of HF patients were significantly higher compared to those of the controls (p < 0.01). There was an inverse correlation between the NLR and the left ventricular ejection fraction of the study population (r: -0.409, p < 0.001). The best cut-off value of NLR to predict HF was 3.0, with 86.3% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity, and the best cut-off value of PLR to predict HF was 137.3, with 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Only NLR was an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. A cut-off value of 5.1 for NLR can predict death in HF patients with 75% sensitivity and 62% specificity during a 12.8-month follow-up period on average. Conclusion: NLR and PLR were higher in HF patients than in age-sex matched controls. However, NLR and PLR were not sufficient to establish a diagnosis of HF. NLR can be used to predict mortality during the follow-up of HF patients.

Very Long-Term Prognostic Role of Admission BNP in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: BNP has been extensively evaluated to determine short- and intermediate-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome, but its role in long-term mortality is not known. Objective: To determine the very long-term prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for all-cause mortality in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Methods: A cohort of 224 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, prospectively seen in the Emergency Department, had BNP measured on arrival to establish prognosis, and underwent a median 9.34-year follow-up for all-cause mortality. Results: Unstable angina was diagnosed in 52.2%, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, in 47.8%. Median admission BNP was 81.9 pg/mL (IQ range = 22.2; 225) and mortality rate was correlated with increasing BNP quartiles: 14.3; 16.1; 48.2; and 73.2% (p < 0.0001). ROC curve disclosed 100 pg/mL as the best BNP cut-off value for mortality prediction (area under the curve = 0.789, 95% CI= 0.723-0.854), being a strong predictor of late mortality: BNP < 100 = 17.3% vs. BNP ≥ 100 = 65.0%, RR = 3.76 (95% CI = 2.49-5.63, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, age >72 years (OR = 3.79, 95% CI = 1.62-8.86, p = 0.002), BNP ≥ 100 pg/mL (OR = 6.24, 95% CI = 2.95-13.23, p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99, p = 0.049) were independent late-mortality predictors. Conclusions: BNP measured at hospital admission in patients with NSTEACS is a strong, independent predictor of very long-term all-cause mortality. This study allows raising the hypothesis that BNP should be measured in all patients with NSTEACS at the index event for long-term risk stratification.

Prognostic factors in left-sided endocarditis: results from the andalusian multicenter cohort

Despite medical advances, mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) is still very high. Previous studies on prognosis in IE have observed conflicting results. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter cohort of left-sided IE.Methods An observational multicenter study was conducted from January 1984 to December 2006 in seven hospitals in Andalusia, Spain. Seven hundred and five left-side IE patients were included. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Several prognostic factors were analysed by univariate tests and then by multilogistic regression model. Results.The overall mortality was 29.5% (25.5% from 1984 to 1995 and 31.9% from 1996 to 2006; Odds Ratio 1.25; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.97-1.60; p = 0.07). In univariate analysis, age, comorbidity, especially chronic liver disease, prosthetic valve, virulent microorganism such as Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae and fungi, and complications (septic shock, severe heart failure, renal insufficiency, neurologic manifestations and perivalvular extension) were related with higher mortality. Independent factors for mortality in multivariate analysis were: Charlson comorbidity score (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3), prosthetic endocarditis (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-3.1), Staphylococcus aureus aetiology (OR: 2.1; CI: 1.3-3.5), severe heart failure (OR: 5.4; CI: 3.3-8.8), neurologic manifestations (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-2.9), septic shock (OR: 4.2; CI: 2.3-7.7), perivalvular extension (OR: 2.4; CI: 1.3-4.5) and acute renal failure (OR: 1.69; CI: 1.0-2.6). Conversely, Streptococcus viridans group etiology (OR: 0.4; CI: 0.2-0.7) and surgical treatment (OR: 0.5; CI: 0.3-0.8) were protective factors.Conclusions Several characteristics of left-sided endocarditis enable selection of a patient group at higher risk of mortality. This group may benefit from more specialised attention in referral centers and should help to identify those patients who might benefit from more aggressive diagnostic and/or therapeutic procedures.