Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Distinct microRNA Expression Profile in Prostate Cancer Patients with Early Clinical Failure and the Impact of let-7 as Prognostic Marker in High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Background The identification of additional prognostic markers to improve risk stratification and to avoid overtreatment is one of the most urgent clinical needs in prostate cancer (PCa). MicroRNAs, being important regulators of gene expression, are promising biomarkers in various cancer entities, though the impact as prognostic predictors in PCa is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify specific miRNAs as potential prognostic markers in high-risk PCa and to validate their clinical impact. Methodology and Principal Findings We performed miRNA-microarray analysis in a high-risk PCa study group selected by their clinical outcome (clinical progression free survival (CPFS) vs. clinical failure (CF)). We identified seven candidate miRNAs (let-7a/b/c, miR-515-3p/5p, -181b, -146b, and -361) that showed differential expression between both groups. Further qRT-PCR analysis revealed down-regulation of members of the let-7 family in the majority of a large, well-characterized high-risk PCa cohort (n = 98). Expression of let-7a/b/and -c was correlated to clinical outcome parameters of this group. While let-7a showed no association or correlation with clinical relevant data, let-7b and let-7c were associated with CF in PCa patients and functioned partially as independent prognostic marker. Validation of the data using an independent high-risk study cohort revealed that let-7b, but not let-7c, has impact as an independent prognostic marker for BCR and CF. Furthermore, we identified HMGA1, a non-histone protein, as a new target of let-7b and found correlation of let-7b down-regulation with HMGA1 over-expression in primary PCa samples. Conclusion Our findings define a distinct miRNA expression profile in PCa cases with early CF and identified let-7b as prognostic biomarker in high-risk PCa. This study highlights the importance of let-7b as tumor suppressor miRNA in high-risk PCa and presents a basis to improve individual therapy for high-risk PCa patients.

HLA class II antigen expression in colorectal carcinoma tumors as a favorable prognostic marker.

The goal of this study was to determine the frequency of HLA class II antigen expression in colorectal carcinoma (CRC) tumors, its association with the clinical course of the disease, and the underlying mechanism(s). Two tissue microarrays constructed with 220 and 778 CRC tumors were stained with HLA-DR, DQ, and DP antigen-specific monoclonal antibody LGII-612.14, using the immunoperoxidase staining technique. The immunohistochemical staining results were correlated with the clinical course of the disease. The functional role of HLA class II antigens expressed on CRC cells was analyzed by investigating their in vitro interactions with immune cells. HLA class II antigens were expressed in about 25% of the 220 and 21% of the 778 tumors analyzed with an overall frequency of 23%. HLA class II antigens were detected in 19% of colorectal adenomas. Importantly, the percentage of stained cells and the staining intensity were significantly lower than those detected in CRC tumors. However, HLA class II antigen staining was weakly detected only in 5.4% of 37 normal mucosa tissues. HLA class II antigen expression was associated with a favorable clinical course of the disease. In vitro stimulation with interferon gamma (IFNγ) induced HLA class II antigen expression on two of the four CRC cell lines tested. HLA class II antigen expression on CRC cells triggered interleukin-1β (IL-1β) production by resting monocytes. HLA class II antigen expression in CRC tumors is a favorable prognostic marker. This association may reflect stimulation of IL-1β production by monocytes.

Platelet nitric oxide responsiveness - A novel prognostic marker in acute coronary syndromes

Objectives - Nitric oxide (NO) is critically important in the regulation of vascular tone and the inhibition of platelet aggregation. We have shown previously that patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or stable angina pectoris have impaired platelet responses to NO donors when compared with normal subjects. We tested the hypotheses that platelet hyporesponsiveness to NO is a predictor of (1) cardiovascular readmission and/or death and (2) all-cause mortality in patients with ACS (unstable angina pectoris or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction). Methods and Results - Patients (n = 51) with ACS had evaluation of platelet aggregation within 24 hours of coronary care unit admission using impedance aggregometry. Patients were categorized as having normal (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation with the NO donor sodium nitroprusside; 10 mu mol/L; n = 18) or impaired (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation; n = 33) NO responses. We then compared the incidence of cardiovascular readmission and death during a median of 7 years of follow-up in these 2 groups. Using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, index event, postdischarge medical treatment, revascularization status, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, concurrent disease states, and cardiac risk factors, impaired NO responsiveness was associated with an increased risk of the combination of cardiovascular readmission and/or death (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.03 to 7.10; P = 0.041) and all-cause mortality (relative risk, 6.3; 95% CI, 1.09 to 36.7; P = 0.033). Conclusions - Impaired platelet NO responsiveness is a novel, independent predictor of increased mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in patients with high-risk ACS.

Eosinophilia is a favourable prognostic marker in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Suusyöpä on yleisin pään ja kaulan alueen pahanlaatuisista kasvaimista. Niistä yli 90 % on levyepiteelikarsinoomia. Koska suusyöpäpotilaan viisivuotisennuste on vain noin 50 %, on jatkuva tarve löytää keinoja ennustamaan potilaan selviytymistä ja ohjaamaan hoitoa. Suun levyepiteelikarsinooman ympäristössä havaitaan säännöllisesti eosinofiilejä. Eosinofiili on ihmisen immuunijärjestelmän erikoistunut solu, joiden määrä lisääntyy sekä tulehdusreaktioissa että syöpien läheisyydessä. Toistaiseksi ei tiedetä, miten eosinofiilit liittyvät suun levyepiteelikarsinoomaan, mutta oletuksena on, että suusyöpään liittyvällä eosinofilialla, TATE (tumor-associated tissue eosinophilia), voisi olla vaikutusta suun levyepiteelikarsinoomapotilaan ennusteeseen. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää TATE:n ilmenemistä ja vaikutusta potilaan ennusteeseen suun levyepiteelikarsinoomassa. Lisäksi tutkimus käsittelee potilaan ennusteen kannalta optimaalista eosinofiilimäärän raja-arvoa, jota voitaisiin käyttää patologin työkaluna ennusteen arvioinnissa. Tutkimusaineisto koostui Turun yliopiston Suupatologian laitoksella vuosina 2002-2010 tutkituista 122 suuontelon ja huulen limakalvokoepalasta, jotka oli otettu diagnostisia tarkoituksia varten 99 potilaalta. Tutkimuksen potilaista 44 oli naisia ja 55 miehiä, ja heidän keski-ikänsä oli 65,3 vuotta. Seuranta-aika oli keskimäärin 40,7 kk. Kaksi tutkijaa analysoivat hematoksyliini-eosiinilla värjätyt näytteet suurentamalla ne 400-kertaisiksi valomikroskoopilla. Eosinofiilien määrä laskettiin yhteensä kuudelta edustavimmalta syövän ja strooman alueelta. TATE:n suhde potilaan kliinispatologisiin piirteisiin ja selviytymiseen selvitettiin Turun yliopistollisen keskussairaalan potilastiedoistoista ja analysoitiin tilastollisesti käyttämällä Fischerin testiä. Työllä oli Varsinais-Suomen sairaanhoitopiirin eettisen toimikunnan lupa (nro T10/2011, päätös O31/11). Levyepiteelikarsinooman kliininen kuva vaihteli haavaisen muutoksen ollessa yleisin. Yleisin sijainti levyepiteelikarsinoomalle oli kieli. TATE:a löydettiin 61,5 %:sta (78/122) levyepiteelikarsinoomanäytteitä. Mikäli TATE:a ei löydetty tai sen määrä oli korkea, oli potilaan selviytyminen tilastollisesti merkitsevästi parempi kuin potilailla, joilla TATE oli matala. Lisäanalyyseissä havaittiin, että potilaan ennuste oli tilastollisesti merkitsevästi huonompi, mikäli TATE:n raja-arvo oli vähemmän kuin neljä eosinofiiliä per tutkittu mikroskooppinäkymä (HPF). TATE on täten merkki suun levyepiteelikarsinoomapotilaan paremmasta ennusteesta erityisesti, kun havaitaan enemmän kuin neljä eosinofiiliä/HPF. Tutkimustulosten varmistamiseksi tarvitaan kuitenkin jatkossa laajempia tutkimuksia.

Cystatin C, a measure of renal function, as prognostic risk marker in acute heart failure : Studies on the cardiorenal syndrome

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with exceptionally high mortality. Still, characteristics and prognostic factors of contemporary AHF patients have been inadequately studied. Kidney function has emerged as a very powerful prognostic risk factor in cardiovascular disease. This is believed to be the consequence of an interaction between the heart and kidneys, also termed the cardiorenal syndrome, the mechanisms of which are not fully understood. Renal insufficiency is common in heart failure and of particular interest for predicting outcome in AHF. Cystatin C (CysC) is a marker of glomerular filtration rate with properties making it a prospective alternative to the currently used measure creatinine for assessment of renal function. The aim of this thesis is to characterize a representative cohort of patients hospitalized for AHF and to identify risk factors for poor outcome in AHF. In particular, the role of CysC as a marker of renal function is evaluated, including examination of the value of CysC as a predictor of mortality in AHF. The FINN-AKVA (Finnish Acute Heart Failure) study is a national prospective multicenter study conducted to investigate the clinical presentation, aetiology and treatment of, as well as concomitant diseases and outcome in, AHF. Patients hospitalized for AHF were enrolled in the FINN-AKVA study, and mortality was followed for 12 months. The mean age of patients with AHF is 75 years and they frequently have both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities. The mortality after hospitalization for AHF is high, rising to 27% by 12 months. The present study shows that renal dysfunction is very common in AHF. CysC detects impaired renal function in forty percent of patients. Renal function, measured by CysC, is one of the strongest predictors of mortality independently of other prognostic risk markers, such as age, gender, co-morbidities and systolic blood pressure on admission. Moreover, in patients with normal creatinine values, elevated CysC is associated with a marked increase in mortality. Acute kidney injury, defined as an increase in CysC within 48 hours of hospital admission, occurs in a significant proportion of patients and is associated with increased short- and mid-term mortality. The results suggest that CysC can be used for risk stratification in AHF. Markers of inflammation are elevated both in heart failure and in chronic kidney disease, and inflammation is one of the mechanisms thought to mediate heart-kidney interactions in the cardiorenal syndrome. Inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) correlate very differently to markers of cardiac stress and renal function. In particular, TNF-α showed a robust correlation to CysC, but was not associated with levels of NT-proBNP, a marker of hemodynamic cardiac stress. Compared to CysC, the inflammatory markers were not strongly related to mortality in AHF. In conclusion, patients with AHF are elderly with multiple co-morbidities, and renal dysfunction is very common. CysC demonstrates good diagnostic properties both in identifying impaired renal function and acute kidney injury in patients with AHF. CysC, as a measure of renal function, is also a powerful prognostic marker in AHF. CysC shows promise as a marker for assessment of kidney function and risk stratification in patients hospitalized for AHF.

Interleukin-8 as a prognostic serum marker in canine mammary gland neoplasias

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prognostic significance of platelet and microvessel counts in operable non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Microvessel density, an indirect measure of angiogenesis, has been shown to be an independent prognostic marker in many solid tumours including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Platelets transport and release angiogenic growth factors. Platelets are increasingly likely to adhere to tumour microvessels due to raised expression of platelet-binding proteins and stasis in blood-flow. Increased vascular permeability in tumour microvessels facilitates platelet extravasation into the extracellular matrix. Adherence and extravasation both lead to platelet activation and release of growth factors capable of instigating the angiogenic process. Methods: A total of 181 patients were identified who underwent resection of stage I-IIIa NSCLC with a post-operative survival >60 days. Patients were followed-up for a minimum of 24 months. Sections from the tumour periphery were stained for the endothelial marker CD34 (Novocastra NCL-END) using standard ABC immunohistochemistry. Chalkley counting was used to assess microvessel density. Results: A pre-operative platelet count greater than the median and above the normal range (>400) was associated with a poor outcome (P = 0.01 and P = 0.04, respectively). Tumours with an above median and high Chalkley count (upper tertile) had a worse prognosis (P = 0.007 and P = 0.0006, respectively). There was no association between platelet count and Chalkley count. Conclusions: Platelet and microvessel counts are both potential prognostic markers for NSCLC. The role of platelets in the angiogenic process needs to be further investigated. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

Prognostic tumour markers in pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is one of the major causes of cancer death in the industrialised world. The overall survival of patients with ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma is poor: 5-year survival is only 0.2 to 4%. Tumour stage and histological grade are used as prognostic markers in pancreatic cancer. However, there are differences in survival within stages and histological grades. New, additional and more accurate prognostic tools are needed. Aims. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the tissue expression of potential and promising tumour markers p27, tenascin C, syndecan-1, COX-2 and MMP-2 are associated with clinicopathological parameters in pancreatic cancer. The expression of p27, tenascin C and syndecan-1 was also evaluated in acute and chronic pancreatitis. The main purpose in the study was to find new prognostic markers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Patients. The study included 147 patients with histologically verified pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital from 1974 to1998. Methods. The expression of tumour marker antigens was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies against p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2. The results were compared with clinicopathological variables, i.e. age, sex, TNM stage and histological grade. Survival analyses were performed with univariate Kaplan-Meier life-tables and the log-rank test, while multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression. Results. Pancreatic adenocarcinomas expressed p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2 in 30, 94, 92, 36 and 50% of the samples, respectively. Loss of p27 expression was associated with poor prognosis in stage I and II pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1 expression was an independent prognostic marker in pancreatic cancer, whereas epithelial syndecan-1 expression predicted better prognosis only in stage I and II disease. Tenascin C expression did not correlate with survival but was associated with differentiation. COX-2 expression was associated with poor outcome and was an independent prognostic factor. Epithelial MMP-2 correlated with poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer. Conclusion: p27 and epithelial syndecan-1 are prognostic markers in early (stage I and II) pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1, COX-2 and epithelial MMP-2 are prognostic factors in ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Prognostic significance of cyclooxygenase-2 and associated molecules in gastric cancer

Background and aims: Low stage and curative surgery are established factors for improved survival in gastric cancer. However, not all low-stage patients have a good prognosis. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is known to associate with reduced survival in several cancers, and has been shown to play an important role in gastric carcinogenesis. Since new and better prognostic markers are needed for gastric cancer, we studied the prognostic significance of COX-2 and of markers that associate with COX-2 expression. We also studied markers reflecting proliferation and apoptosis, and evaluated their association with COX-2. Our purpose was to construct an accurate prognostic model by combining tissue markers and clinicopathogical factors. Materials and methods: Of 342 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer at Meilahti Hospital, Helsinki University Central Hospital, 337 were included in this study. Low stages I to II were represented by 141 (42%) patients, and high stages III to IV by 196 (58%). Curative surgery was performed on 176 (52%) patients. Survival data were obtained from the national registers. Slides from archive tissue blocks were prepared for immunohistochemistry by use of COX-2, human antigen R (HuR), cyclin A, matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMP-2, MMP-9), and Ki-67 antibodies. Immunostainings were scored by microscopy, and scores were entered into a database. Associations of tumor markers with clinicopathological factors were calculated, as well as associations with p53, p21, and results of flow cytometry from earlier studies. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox multivariate models were reconstructed. Cell culture experiments were performed to explore the effect of small interfering (si)RNA of HuR on COX-2 expression in a TMK-1 gastric cancer cell line. Results: Overall 5-year survival was 35.1%. Study I showed that COX-2 was an independent prognostic factor, and that the prognostic impact of COX-2 was more pronounced in low-stage patients. Cytoplasmic HuR expression also associated with reduced survival in gastric cancer patients in a non-independent manner. Cell culture experiments showed that HuR can regulate COX-2 expression in TMK-1 cells in vitro, with an association also between COX-2 and HuR tissue expression in a clinical material. In Study II, cyclin A was an independent prognostic factor and was associated with HuR expression in the gastric cancer material. The results of Study III showed that epithelial MMP-2 associated with survival in univariate, but not in multivariate analysis. However, MMP-9 showed no prognostic value. MMP-2 expression was associated with COX-2 expression. In Study IV, the prognostic power of COX-2 was compared with that of all tested markers associated with survival in Studies I to III, as well as with p21, p53, and flow cytometry results. COX-2 and p53 were independent prognostic factors, and COX-2 expression was associated with that of p53 and Ki-67 and also with aneuploidy. Conclusions: COX-2 is an independent prognostic factor in gastric cancer, and its prognostic power emerges especially in low stage cancer. COX-2 is regulated by HuR, and is associated with factors reflecting invasion, proliferation, and apoptosis. In an extended multivariate model, COX-2 retained its position as an independent prognosticator. COX-2 can be considered a promising new prognostic marker in gastric cancer.