Homeostatic epistemology : reliability, coherence and coordination in a Bayesian virtue epistemology

How do agents with limited cognitive capacities flourish in informationally impoverished or unexpected circumstances? Aristotle argued that human flourishing emerged from knowing about the world and our place within it. If he is right, then the virtuous processes that produce knowledge, best explain flourishing. Influenced by Aristotle, virtue epistemology defends an analysis of knowledge where beliefs are evaluated for their truth and the intellectual virtue or competences relied on in their creation. However, human flourishing may emerge from how degrees of ignorance are managed in an uncertain world. Perhaps decision-making in the shadow of knowledge best explains human wellbeing—a Bayesian approach? In this dissertation I argue that a hybrid of virtue and Bayesian epistemologies explains human flourishing—what I term homeostatic epistemology. Homeostatic epistemology supposes that an agent has a rational credence p when p is the product of reliable processes aligned with the norms of probability theory; whereas an agent knows that p when a rational credence p is the product of reliable processes such that: 1) p meets some relevant threshold for belief (such that the agent acts as though p were true and indeed p is true), 2) p coheres with a satisficing set of relevant beliefs and, 3) the relevant set of beliefs is coordinated appropriately to meet the integrated aims of the agent. Homeostatic epistemology recognizes that justificatory relationships between beliefs are constantly changing to combat uncertainties and to take advantage of predictable circumstances. Contrary to holism, justification is built up and broken down across limited sets like the anabolic and catabolic processes that maintain homeostasis in the cells, organs and systems of the body. It is the coordination of choristic sets of reliably produced beliefs that create the greatest flourishing given the limitations inherent in the situated agent.

A novel approach to increasing inventory with the current panel: Increasing donation frequency by asking for a different blood product

BACKGROUND Ongoing shortages of blood products may be addressed through additional donations. However, donation frequency rates are typically lower than medically possible. This preliminary study aims to determine voluntary nonremunerated whole blood (WB) and plasmapheresis donors' willingness, and subsequent facilitators and barriers, to make additional donations of a different type. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Forty individual telephone interviews were conducted posing two additional donation pattern scenarios: first, making a single and, second, making multiple plasmapheresis donations between WB donations. Stratified purposive sampling was conducted for four samples varying in donation experience: no-plasma, new-to-both-WB-and-plasma, new-to-plasma, and plasma donors. Interviews were analyzed yielding excellent (κ values > 0.81) inter-rater reliability. RESULTS Facilitators were more endorsed than barriers for a single but not multiple plasmapheresis donation. More new-to-both donors (n = 5) were willing to make multiple plasma donations between WB donations than others (n = 1 each) and identified fewer barriers (n = 3) than those more experienced in donation (n = 8 no plasma, n = 10 new to both, n = 11 plasma). Donors in the plasma sample were concerned about the subsequent reduced time between plasma donations by adding WB donations (n = 3). The no-plasma and new-to-plasma donors were concerned about the time commitment required (n = 3). CONCLUSION Current donors are willing to add different product donations but donation history influences their willingness to change. Early introduction of multiple donation types, variation in inventory levels, and addressing barriers will provide blood collection agencies with a novel and cost-effective inventory management strategy.

Studies on design, fabrication and reliability assessment of embedded passives on a high-density interconnect (HDI) organic substrate using a sequential build-up process

One of the foremost design considerations in microelectronics miniaturization is the use of embedded passives which provide practical solution. In a typical circuit, over 80 percent of the electronic components are passives such as resistors, inductors, and capacitors that could take up to almost 50 percent of the entire printed circuit board area. By integrating passive components within the substrate instead of being on the surface, embedded passives reduce the system real estate, eliminate the need for discrete and assembly, enhance electrical performance and reliability, and potentially reduce the overall cost. Moreover, it is lead free. Even with these advantages, embedded passive technology is at a relatively immature stage and more characterization and optimization are needed for practical applications leading to its commercialization.This paper presents an entire process from design and fabrication to electrical characterization and reliability test of embedded passives on multilayered microvia organic substrate. Two test vehicles focusing on resistors and capacitors have been designed and fabricated. Embedded capacitors in this study are made with polymer/ceramic nanocomposite (BaTiO3) material to take advantage of low processing temperature of polymers and relatively high dielectric constant of ceramics and the values of these capacitors range from 50 pF to 1.5 nF with capacitance per area of approximately 1.5 nF/cm(2). Limited high frequency measurement of these capacitors was performed. Furthermore, reliability assessments of thermal shock and temperature humidity tests based on JEDEC standards were carried out. Resistors used in this work have been of three types: 1) carbon ink based polymer thick film (PTF), 2) resistor foils with known sheet resistivities which are laminated to printed wiring board (PWB) during a sequential build-up (SBU) process and 3) thin-film resistor plating by electroless method. Realization of embedded resistors on conventional board-level high-loss epoxy (similar to 0.015 at 1 GHz) and proposed low-loss BCB dielectric (similar to 0.0008 at > 40 GHz) has been explored in this study. Ni-P and Ni-W-P alloys were plated using conventional electroless plating, and NiCr and NiCrAlSi foils were used for the foil transfer process. For the first time, Benzocyclobutene (BCB) has been proposed as a board level dielectric for advanced System-on-Package (SOP) module primarily due to its attractive low-loss (for RF application) and thin film (for high density wiring) properties.Although embedded passives are more reliable by eliminating solder joint interconnects, they also introduce other concerns such as cracks, delamination and component instability. More layers may be needed to accommodate the embedded passives, and various materials within the substrate may cause significant thermo -mechanical stress due to coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch. In this work, numerical models of embedded capacitors have been developed to qualitatively examine the effects of process conditions and electrical performance due to thermo-mechanical deformations.Also, a prototype working product with the board level design including features of embedded resistors and capacitors are underway. Preliminary results of these are presented.

Reliability, Availability, Dependability and Performability: A User-centered View

Reliability and availability have long been considered twin system properties that could be enhanced by distribution. Paradoxically, the traditional definitions of these properties do not recognize the positive impact of recovery as distinct from simple repair and restart on reliability, nor the negative effect of recovery, and of internetworking of clients and servers, on availability. As a result of employing the standard definitions, reliability would tend to be underestimated, and availability overestimated. We offer revised definitions of these two critical metrics, which we call service reliability and service availability, that improve the match between their formal expression, and intuitive meaning. A fortuitous advantage of our approach is that the product of our two metrics yields a highly meaningful figure of merit for the overall dependability of a system. But techniques that enhance system dependability exact a performance cost, so we conclude with a cohesive definition of performability that rewards the system for performance that is delivered to its client applications, after discounting the following consequences of failure: service denial and interruption, lost work, and recovery cost.

Mechanistic-based Design-Integrated Reliability Validation Framework for Mechanical Systems

Abstract: New product design challenges, related to customer needs, product usage and environments, face companies when they expand their product offerings to new markets; Some of the main challenges are: the lack of quantifiable information, product experience and field data. Designing reliable products under such challenges requires flexible reliability assessment processes that can capture the variables and parameters affecting the product overall reliability and allow different design scenarios to be assessed. These challenges also suggest a mechanistic (Physics of Failure-PoF) reliability approach would be a suitable framework to be used for reliability assessment. Mechanistic Reliability recognizes the primary factors affecting design reliability. This research views the designed entity as a “system of components required to deliver specific operations”; it addresses the above mentioned challenges by; Firstly: developing a design synthesis that allows a descriptive operations/ system components relationships to be realized; Secondly: developing component’s mathematical damage models that evaluate components Time to Failure (TTF) distributions given: 1) the descriptive design model, 2) customer usage knowledge and 3) design material properties; Lastly: developing a procedure that integrates components’ damage models to assess the mechanical system’s reliability over time. Analytical and numerical simulation models were developed to capture the relationships between operations and components, the mathematical damage models and the assessment of system’s reliability. The process was able to affect the design form during the conceptual design phase by providing stress goals to meet component’s reliability target. The process was able to numerically assess the reliability of a system based on component’s mechanistic TTF distributions, besides affecting the design of the component during the design embodiment phase. The process was used to assess the reliability of an internal combustion engine manifold during design phase; results were compared to reliability field data and found to produce conservative reliability results. The research focused on mechanical systems, affected by independent mechanical failure mechanisms that are influenced by the design process. Assembly and manufacturing stresses and defects’ influences are not a focus of this research.

Computational modeling techniques for reliability of electronic components on printed circuit boards

This paper describes modeling technology and its use in providing data governing the assembly and subsequent reliability of electronic chip components on printed circuit boards (PCBs). Products, such as mobile phones, camcorders, intelligent displays, etc., are changing at a tremendous rate where newer technologies are being applied to satisfy the demands for smaller products with increased functionality. At ever decreasing dimensions, and increasing number of input/output connections, the design of these components, in terms of dimensions and materials used, is playing a key role in determining the reliability of the final assembly. Multiphysics modeling techniques are being adopted to predict a range of interacting physics-based phenomena associated with the manufacturing process. For example, heat transfer, solidification, marangoni fluid flow, void movement, and thermal-stress. The modeling techniques used are based on finite volume methods that are conservative and take advantage of being able to represent the physical domain using an unstructured mesh. These techniques are also used to provide data on thermal induced fatigue which is then mapped into product lifetime predictions.

Using computer models to identify optimal conditions for flip-chip assembly and reliability

Flip-chip assembly, developed in the early 1960s, is now being positioned as a key joining technology to achieve high-density mounting of electronic components on to printed circuit boards for high-volume, low-cost products. Computer models are now being used early within the product design stage to ensure that optimal process conditions are used. These models capture the governing physics taking place during the assembly process and they can also predict relevant defects that may occur. Describes the application of computational modelling techniques that have the ability to predict a range of interacting physical phenomena associated with the manufacturing process. For example, in the flip-chip assembly process we have solder paste deposition, solder joint shape formation, heat transfer, solidification and thermal stress. Illustrates the application of modelling technology being used as part of a larger UK study aiming to establish a process route for high-volume, low-cost, sub-100-micron pitch flip-chip assembly.

Reliability of power electronic modules

The electric car, the all electric aircraft and requirements for renewable energy are examples of potential technologies needed to address the world problem of global warming/carbon emission etc. Power electronics and packaged modules are fundamental for the underpinning of these technologies and with the diverse requirements for electrical configurations and the range of environmental conditions, time to market is paramount for module manufacturers and systems designers alike. This paper details some of the results from a major UK project into the reliability of power electronic modules using physics of failure techniques. This paper presents a design methodology together with results that demonstrate enhanced product design with improved reliability, performance and value within acceptable time scales

Performance and reliability of flexible substrates when subjected to lead-free processing

The use of flexible substrates is growing in many applications such as computer peripherals, hand held devices, telecommunications, automotive, aerospace, etc. The drive to adopt flexible circuits is due to their ability to reduce size, weight, assembly time and cost of the final product.They also accommodate flexibility by allowing relative movement between component parts and provide a route for three dimensional packaging. This paper will describe some of the current research results from the Flex-No-Lead project, a European Commission sponsored research program. The principle aim of this project is to investigate the processing, performance, and reliability of flexible substrates when subjected to new environmentally friendly, lead-free soldering technologies. This paper will discuss the impact of specific design variables on performance and reliability. In particular the paper will focus on copper track designs, substrate material, dielectric material and solder-mask defined joints.

Modelling the reliability of components on flexible substrates

The use of flexible substrates is growing in many applications such as computer peripherals, hand held devices, telecommunications, automotive, aerospace, etc. The drive to adopt flexible circuits is due to their ability to reduce size, weight, assembly time and cost of final product. they also accommodate flexibility by allowing relative movement between component parts and provide a route for three dimensional packaging. This paper will describe some of the current research results from the Flex-No-Lead project, European Commission sponsored programme. The principle aim of this project is to investigate the processing, performance and reliability of flexible substrates when subjected to new environmentally friendly, lead-free soldering technologies. This paper will discuss the impact of specific design variables on performance and reliability. In particular the paper will focus on copper track designs, substrate material, dielectric material and solder mask defined joints

Distortion product otoacoustic emissions in children with profound sensorineural hearing losses

This paper presents information on the reliability of distortion product otoacoustic emissions in children with profound sensorineural hearing losses.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Production and Delivery (Optimization of production system and reliability)

This thesis is done to solve two issues for Sayid Paper Mill Ltd Pakistan. Section one deals with a practical problem arise in SPM that is cutting a given set of raw paper rolls of known length and width, and a set of product paper rolls of known length (equal to the length of raw paper rolls) and width, practical cutting constraints on a single cutting machine, according to demand orders for all customers. To solve this problem requires to determine an optimal cutting schedule to maximize the overall cutting process profitability while satisfying all demands and cutting constraints. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a mathematical model which solves this problem.Second section deals with a problem of delivering final product from warehouse to different destinations by finding shortest paths. It is an operational routing problem to decide the daily routes for sending trucks to different destination to deliver their final product. This industrial problem is difficult and includes aspect such as delivery to a single destination and multiple destinations with limited resources. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a process which helps finding shortest path.

Product placement in movies: a cross cultural study between Brazil and the USA

The broader objective of this study undertaking can briefly be articulated in particulate aims as follows: to measure the attitudes of consumers regarding the brand displayed by this strategy as well as to highlight recall, recognition and purchase intentions generated by product placement on consumers. In addition, check the differences and similarities between the behavior of Brazilian and American consumers caused by the influence of product placements. The study was undertaken targeting consumer audience in Brazil and the U.S. A rang3 modeling set ups were performed in order to realign study instruments and hypothesis towards the research objectives. This study gave focus on the following hypothesized models. H1: Consumers / Participants who viewed the brands / products in the movie have a higher brand / product recall compared to the consumers / participants who did not view the brands / products in the movie. H2: US Consumers / Participants are able to recognize and recall brands / products which appear in the background of the movie than Brazil. H3: Consumers / participants from USA are more accepting of product placements compared to their counterparts in Brazil. H4: There are discernible similarities in consumer / participant brand attitudes and purchase intentions in consumers / participants from USA and Brazil in spite of the fact that their country of origin is different. Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient ensured the reliability of survey instruments. The study involved the use of the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) for the hypothesis testing. This study used the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to assess both the convergent and discriminant validities instead of using the Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) or the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This reinforced for the use of the regression Chi Square and T statistical tests in further. Only hypothesis H3 was rejected, the rest were not. T test provided insight findings on specific subgroup significant differences. In the SEM testing, the error variance for product placement attitudes was negative for both the groups. On this The Heywood Case came in handy to fix negative values. The researcher used both quantitative and qualitative approach where closed ended questionnaires and interviews respectively were used to collect primary data. The results were additionally provided with tabulations. It can be concluded that, product placement varies markedly in the U.S. from Brazil based on the influence a range of factors provided in the study. However, there are elements of convergence probably driven by the convergence in technology. In order, product placement to become more competitive in the promotional marketing, there will be the need for researchers to extend focus from the traditional variables and add knowledge on the conventional marketplace factors that is the sell-ability of the product placement technologies and strategies.