A Quantile-Based Probabilistic Mean Value Theorem

For non-negative random variables with finite means we introduce an analogous of the equilibrium residual-lifetime distribution based on the quantile function. This allows us to construct new distributions with support (0, 1), and to obtain a new quantile-based version of the probabilistic generalization of Taylor's theorem. Similarly, for pairs of stochastically ordered random variables we come to a new quantile-based form of the probabilistic mean value theorem. The latter involves a distribution that generalizes the Lorenz curve. We investigate the special case of proportional quantile functions and apply the given results to various models based on classes of distributions and measures of risk theory. Motivated by some stochastic comparisons, we also introduce the “expected reversed proportional shortfall order”, and a new characterization of random lifetimes involving the reversed hazard rate function.

Structured neural network modelling of multi-valued functions for wind retrieval from scatterometer measurements

A conventional neural network approach to regression problems approximates the conditional mean of the output vector. For mappings which are multi-valued this approach breaks down, since the average of two solutions is not necessarily a valid solution. In this article mixture density networks, a principled method to model conditional probability density functions, are applied to retrieving Cartesian wind vector components from satellite scatterometer data. A hybrid mixture density network is implemented to incorporate prior knowledge of the predominantly bimodal function branches. An advantage of a fully probabilistic model is that more sophisticated and principled methods can be used to resolve ambiguities.

Structured neural network modelling of multi-valued functions for wind retrieval from scatterometer measurements

A conventional neural network approach to regression problems approximates the conditional mean of the output vector. For mappings which are multi-valued this approach breaks down, since the average of two solutions is not necessarily a valid solution. In this article mixture density networks, a principled method to model conditional probability density functions, are applied to retrieving Cartesian wind vector components from satellite scatterometer data. A hybrid mixture density network is implemented to incorporate prior knowledge of the predominantly bimodal function branches. An advantage of a fully probabilistic model is that more sophisticated and principled methods can be used to resolve ambiguities.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

Fully probabilistic control design in an adaptive critic framework

Optimal stochastic controller pushes the closed-loop behavior as close as possible to the desired one. The fully probabilistic design (FPD) uses probabilistic description of the desired closed loop and minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence of the closed-loop description to the desired one. Practical exploitation of the fully probabilistic design control theory continues to be hindered by the computational complexities involved in numerically solving the associated stochastic dynamic programming problem. In particular very hard multivariate integration and an approximate interpolation of the involved multivariate functions. This paper proposes a new fully probabilistic contro algorithm that uses the adaptive critic methods to circumvent the need for explicitly evaluating the optimal value function, thereby dramatically reducing computational requirements. This is a main contribution of this short paper.

Some Probabilistic Results in a Bisexual Branching Process with Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Mechanisms Predisposing Penile Fracture And Long-term Outcomes On Erectile And Voiding Functions.

Purpose. To determine the mechanisms predisposing penile fracture as well as the rate of long-term penile deformity and erectile and voiding functions. Methods. All fractures were repaired on an emergency basis via subcoronal incision and absorbable suture with simultaneous repair of eventual urethral lesion. Patients' status before fracture and voiding and erectile functions at long term were assessed by periodic follow-up and phone call. Detailed history included cause, symptoms, and single-question self-report of erectile and voiding functions. Results. Among the 44 suspicious cases, 42 (95.4%) were confirmed, mean age was 34.5 years (range: 18-60), mean follow-up 59.3 months (range 9-155). Half presented the classical triad of audible crack, detumescence, and pain. Heterosexual intercourse was the most common cause (28 patients, 66.7%), followed by penile manipulation (6 patients, 14.3%), and homosexual intercourse (4 patients, 9.5%). Woman on top was the most common heterosexual position (n = 14, 50%), followed by doggy style (n = 8, 28.6%). Four patients (9.5%) maintained the cause unclear. Six (14.3%) patients had urethral injury and two (4.8%) had erectile dysfunction, treated by penile prosthesis and PDE-5i. No patient showed urethral fistula, voiding deterioration, penile nodule/curve or pain. Conclusions. Woman on top was the potentially riskiest sexual position (50%). Immediate surgical treatment warrants long-term very low morbidity.

Two-component System Vicrk Regulates Functions Associated With Establishment Of Streptococcus Sanguinis In Biofilms.

Streptococcus sanguinis is a commensal pioneer colonizer of teeth and an opportunistic pathogen of infectious endocarditis. The establishment of S. sanguinis in host sites likely requires dynamic fitting of the cell wall in response to local stimuli. In this study, we investigated the two-component system (TCS) VicRK in S. sanguinis (VicRKSs), which regulates genes of cell wall biogenesis, biofilm formation, and virulence in opportunistic pathogens. A vicK knockout mutant obtained from strain SK36 (SKvic) showed slight reductions in aerobic growth and resistance to oxidative stress but an impaired ability to form biofilms, a phenotype restored in the complemented mutant. The biofilm-defective phenotype was associated with reduced amounts of extracellular DNA during aerobic growth, with reduced production of H2O2, a metabolic product associated with DNA release, and with inhibitory capacity of S. sanguinis competitor species. No changes in autolysis or cell surface hydrophobicity were detected in SKvic. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA), and promoter sequence analyses revealed that VicR directly regulates genes encoding murein hydrolases (SSA_0094, cwdP, and gbpB) and spxB, which encodes pyruvate oxidase for H2O2 production. Genes previously associated with spxB expression (spxR, ccpA, ackA, and tpK) were not transcriptionally affected in SKvic. RT-qPCR analyses of S. sanguinis biofilm cells further showed upregulation of VicRK targets (spxB, gbpB, and SSA_0094) and other genes for biofilm formation (gtfP and comE) compared to expression in planktonic cells. This study provides evidence that VicRKSs regulates functions crucial for S. sanguinis establishment in biofilms and identifies novel VicRK targets potentially involved in hydrolytic activities of the cell wall required for these functions.

Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

Effects of Variations in Nonlinear Damping Coefficients on the Parametric Vibration of a Cantilever Beam with a Lumped Mass

Uncertainties in damping estimates can significantly affect the dynamic response of a given flexible structure. A common practice in linear structural dynamics is to consider a linear viscous damping model as the major energy dissipation mechanism. However, it is well known that different forms of energy dissipation can affect the structure's dynamic response. The major goal of this paper is to address the effects of the turbulent frictional damping force, also known as drag force on the dynamic behavior of a typical flexible structure composed of a slender cantilever beam carrying a lumped-mass on the tip. First, the system's analytical equation is obtained and solved by employing a perturbation technique. The solution process considers variations of the drag force coefficient and its effects on the system's response. Then, experimental results are presented to demonstrate the effects of the nonlinear quadratic damping due to the turbulent frictional force on the system's dynamic response. In particular, the effects of the quadratic damping on the frequency-response and amplitude-response curves are investigated. Numerically simulated as well as experimental results indicate that variations on the drag force coefficient significantly alter the dynamics of the structure under investigation. Copyright (c) 2008 D. G. Silva and P. S. Varoto.

ProbFAST: Probabilistic Functional Analysis System Tool

Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

Data collapse, scaling functions, and analytical solutions of generalized growth models

We consider a nontrivial one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacities. Time-dependent intrinsic and extrinsic growth rates are considered in these models. Through the model per capita growth rate we obtain a heuristic general procedure to generate scaling functions to collapse data into a simple linear behavior even if an extrinsic growth rate is included. With this data collapse, all the models studied become independent from the parameters and initial condition. Analytical solutions are found when time-dependent coefficients are considered. These solutions allow us to perceive nontrivial transitions between species extinction and survival and to calculate the transition's critical exponents. Considering an extrinsic growth rate as a cancer treatment, we show that the relevant quantity depends not only on the intensity of the treatment, but also on when the cancerous cell growth is maximum.

Charm and longitudinal structure functions within the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi model

We use the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi (KLN) model of the low x gluon distributions to fit recent HERA data on F(L) and F(2)(c)(F(2)(b)). Having checked that this model gives a good description of the data, we use it to predict F(L) and F(2)(c) to be measured in a future electron-ion collider. The results are similar to those obtained with the de Florian-Sassot and Eskola-Paukkunen-Salgado nuclear gluon distributions. The conclusion of this exercise is that the KLN model, simple as it is, may still be used as an auxiliary tool to make estimates for both heavy-ion and electron-ion collisions.

Use of correlated potential harmonic basis functions for the description of the (4)He trimer and small clusters

A correlated many-body basis function is used to describe the (4)He trimer and small helium clusters ((4)HeN) with N = 4-9. A realistic helium dimer potential is adopted. The ground state results of the (4)He dimer and trimer are in close agreement with earlier findings. But no evidence is found for the existence of Efimov state in the trimer for the actual (4)He-(4)He interaction. However, decreasing the potential strength we calculate several excited states of the trimer which exhibit Efimov character. We also solve for excited state energies of these clusters which are in good agreement with Monte Carlo hyperspherical description. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3583365]