Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic logic with independence

This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rotation-discriminating template matching based on Fourier coefficients of radial projections with robustness to scaling and partial occlusion

We consider brightness/contrast-invariant and rotation-discriminating template matching that searches an image to analyze A for a query image Q We propose to use the complex coefficients of the discrete Fourier transform of the radial projections to compute new rotation-invariant local features. These coefficients can be efficiently obtained via FFT. We classify templates in ""stable"" and ""unstable"" ones and argue that any local feature-based template matching may fail to find unstable templates. We extract several stable sub-templates of Q and find them in A by comparing the features. The matchings of the sub-templates are combined using the Hough transform. As the features of A are computed only once, the algorithm can find quickly many different sub-templates in A, and it is Suitable for finding many query images in A, multi-scale searching and partial occlusion-robust template matching. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Excitability changes in human forearm corticospinal projections and spinal reflex pathways during rhythmic voluntary movement of the opposite limb

Rhythmic movements brought about by the contraction of muscles on one side of the body give rise to phase-locked changes in the excitability of the homologous motor pathways of the opposite limb. Such crossed facilitation should favour patterns of bimanual coordination in which homologous muscles are engaged simultaneously, and disrupt those in which the muscles are activated in an alternating fashion. In order to examine these issues, we obtained responses to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), to stimulation of the cervicomedullary junction (cervicomedullary-evoked potentials, CMEPs), to peripheral nerve stimulation (H-reflexes and f-waves), and elicited stretch reflexes in the relaxed right flexor carpi radialis (FCR) muscle during rhythmic (2 Hz) flexion and extension movements of the opposite (left) wrist. The potentials evoked by TMS in right FCR were potentiated during the phases of movement in which the left FCR was most strongly engaged. In contrast, CMEPs were unaffected by the movements of the opposite limb. These results suggest that there was systematic variation of the excitability of the motor cortex ipsilateral to the moving limb. H-reflexes and stretch reflexes recorded in right FCR were modulated in phase with the activation of left FCR. As the f-waves did not vary in corresponding fashion, it appears that the phasic modulation of the H-reflex was mediated by presynaptic inhibition of Ia afferents. The observation that both H-reflexes and f-waves were depressed markedly during movements of the opposite indicates that there may also have been postsynaptic inhibition or disfacilitation of the largest motor units. Our findings indicate that the patterned modulation of excitability in motor pathways that occurs during rhythmic movements of the opposite limb is mediated primarily by interhemispheric interactions between cortical motor areas.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Probabilistic Action System Trace Semantics

Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.

Central projections of Drosophila sensory neurons in the transition from embryo to larva

Sensory axons of different sensory modalities project into typical domains within insect ganglia. Tactile and gustatory axons project into a ventral layer of neuropil and proprioceptive afferents, including chordotonal axone, into an intermediate or dorsal layer. Here, we describe the central projections of sensory neurons in the first instar Drosophila larva, relating them to the projection of the same sensory afferents in the embryo and to sensory afferents of similar type in other insects. Several neurons show marked morphologic changes in their axon terminals in the transition between the embryo and larva. During a short morphogenetic period late in embryogenesis, the axon terminals of the dorsal bipolar dendrite stretch receptor change their shape and their distribution within the neuromere. In the larva, external sense organ neurons (es) project their axons into a ventral layer of neuropil. Chordotonal sensory neurons (ch) project into a slightly more dorsal region that is comparable to their projection in adults. The multiple dendrite (md) neurons show two distinctive classes of projection. One group of md neurons projects into the ventral-most neuropil region, the same region into which es neurons project. Members of this group are related by lineage to es neurons or share a requirement for expression of the same proneural gene during development. Other md neurons project into a more dorsal region. Sensory receptors projecting into dorsal neuropil possibly provide proprioceptive feedback from the periphery to central motorneurons and are candidates for future genetic and cellular analysis of simple neural circuitry. J. Comp. Neurol. 425:34-44, 2000. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Projections from the substantia nigra pars reticulata to the motor thalamus of the rat: Single axon reconstructions and immunohistochemical study

This is a study in the rat of the distribution of specific neurotransmitters in neurones projecting from the substantia nigra reticulata (SNR) to the ventrolateral (VL) and ventromedial (VM) thalamic nuclei. Individual axons projecting from the SNR to these thalamic nuclei have also been reconstructed following small injection of the anterograde tracer dextran biotin into the the SNR. Analysis of reconstructions revealed two populations of SNR neurones projecting onto the VL and VM thalamic nuclei. One group projects directly onto the VM and VL, and the other projects to the VM/VL and to the parafascicular nucleus. In another set of experiments Fluoro-Gold was injected into the VL/VM to label SNR projection neurones retrogradely, and immunohistochemistry was performed to determine the distribution of choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), vesicular acetylcholine transporter (VAChT), gamma -aminobutyric acid (GABA), and glutamate in Fluoro-Gold-labelled SNR projection neurones. Most SNR-VL/VM thalamic projection neurones were immunoreactive to acetylcholine or glutamate, whereas only 25% of the projection neurones were found to be immunoreactive to GABA. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Somatotopic organization and cortical projections of the ventrobasal complex of the flying fox: an "inverted" wing representation in the thalamus

The present study investigates the somatotopic representation in the somatosensory thalamus of a megachiropteran bat. Using standard microelectrode mapping techniques, representational maps were generated for the ventrobasal (Vb) and posterior (Po) thalamic complexes of the Grey-headed flying fox. Anatomical tracing from neocortical injections provided additional data confirming the somatotopy found physiologically. A full representation of the body surface innervated by the trigeminal and spinal nerves was found. However, in contrast with other mammals, the representations of the forelimb and adjacent thoracic trunk within the thalamus were inverted. This means that the distal portions of the wing membrane and the tips of the digits were represented dorsally in Vb, and the thoracic trunk was represented ventrally In Po the digit tips were represented in the ventral most portion and the thoracic trunk in the dorsal portion of the nucleus. These results are discussed in relation to similarities of megachiropteran somatosensory thalamic nuclei to those of other mammalian species and in relation to the formation of thalamic somatotopic maps and fiber sorting.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and reorganization of corticospinal projections in EphA4 deficient mice

The Eph family of receptor tyrosine kinases and their ligands, the ephrins, are important regulators of axon guidance and cell migration in the developing nervous system. Inactivation of the EphA4 gene results in axon guidance defects of the corticospinal tract, a major descending motor pathway that originates in the cortex and terminates at all levels of the spinal cord. In this investigation, we report that although the initial development of the corticospinal projection is normal through the cortex, internal capsule, cerebral peduncle, and medulla in the brain of EphA4 deficient animals, corticospinal axons exhibit gross abnormalities when they enter the gray matter of the spinal cord. Notably, many corticospinal axons fail to remain confined to one side of the spinal cord during development and instead, aberrantly project across the midline, terminating ipsilateral to their cells of origin. Given the possible repulsive interactions between EphA4 and one of its ligands, ephrinB3, this defect could be consistent with a loss of responsiveness by corticospinal axons to ephrinB3 that is expressed at the spinal cord midline. Furthermore, we show that EphA4 deficient animals exhibit ventral displacement of the mature corticospinal termination pattern, suggesting that developing corticospinal axons, which may also express ephrinB3, fail to be repelled from areas of high EphA4 expression in the intermediate zone of the normal spinal cord. Taken together, these results suggest that the dual expression of EphA4 on corticospinal axons and also within the surrounding gray matter is very important for the correct development and termination of the corticospinal projection within the spinal cord. J. Comp. Neurol. 436: 248-262, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.