Symmetric Push-Sum Protocol for decentralised aggregation

Gossip (or Epidemic) protocols have emerged as a communication and computation paradigm for large-scale networked systems. These protocols are based on randomised communication, which provides probabilistic guarantees on convergence speed and accuracy. They also provide robustness, scalability, computational and communication efficiency and high stability under disruption. This work presents a novel Gossip protocol named Symmetric Push-Sum Protocol for the computation of global aggregates (e.g., average) in decentralised and asynchronous systems. The proposed approach combines the simplicity of the push-based approach and the efficiency of the push-pull schemes. The push-pull schemes cannot be directly employed in asynchronous systems as they require synchronous paired communication operations to guarantee their accuracy. Although push schemes guarantee accuracy even with asynchronous communication, they suffer from a slower and unstable convergence. Symmetric Push- Sum Protocol does not require synchronous communication and achieves a convergence speed similar to the push-pull schemes, while keeping the accuracy stability of the push scheme. In the experimental analysis, we focus on computing the global average as an important class of node aggregation problems. The results have confirmed that the proposed method inherits the advantages of both other schemes and outperforms well-known state of the art protocols for decentralized Gossip-based aggregation.

Multi-criteria analysis in the strategic environmental assessment of the sugar and alcohol sector

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the sugar and alcohol sector guides a territorial and sectoral planning that benefits most of the local society and supports this economic activity in all its stages. In this way, the present work aims to determine an index of aggregation of the indicators generated in the baseline of the SEA process, called Index of Sustainability of Expansion of the Sugar and Alcohol Sector (IScana). For this, it was used the normalization of the indicators of each city by the fuzzy logic and attribution of weights by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Then, the IScana values had been spatialized in the region of 'Grande Dourados'-Mato Grosso do Sul State. The northern portion concentrated the highest values of IScana, 0.48 and 0.55, referring to the cities of Nova Alvorada do Sul and Rio Brilhante, while, in the central portion, the city of Dourados presented the lowest value, 0.10. The selection of the set of indicators forming the IScana, and their relative importance, was satisfactory for the application of fuzzy logic and AHP techniques. The IScana index supplies objective information regarding the diagnosis of the region for the application of SEA.

Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Analysis of the operator action and the single failure criteria in a SGTR sequence using best estimate assumptions with TRACE 5.0

Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) sequences in Pressurized Water Reactors are known to be one of the most demanding transients for the operating crew. SGTR are a special kind of transient as they could lead to radiological releases without core damage or containment failure, as they can constitute a direct path from the reactor coolant system to the environment. The first methodology used to perform the Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) of a SGTR did not credit the operator action for the first 30 min of the transient, assuming that the operating crew was able to stop the primary to secondary leakage within that period of time. However, the different real SGTR accident cases happened in the USA and over the world demonstrated that the operators usually take more than 30 min to stop the leakage in actual sequences. Some methodologies were raised to overcome that fact, considering operator actions from the beginning of the transient, as it is done in Probabilistic Safety Analysis. This paper presents the results of comparing different assumptions regarding the single failure criteria and the operator action taken from the most common methodologies included in the different Deterministic Safety Analysis. One single failure criteria that has not been analysed previously in the literature is proposed and analysed in this paper too. The comparison is done with a PWR Westinghouse three loop model in TRACE code (Almaraz NPP) with best estimate assumptions but including deterministic hypothesis such as single failure criteria or loss of offsite power. The behaviour of the reactor is quite diverse depending on the different assumptions made regarding the operator actions. On the other hand, although there are high conservatisms included in the hypothesis, as the single failure criteria, all the results are quite far from the regulatory limits. In addition, some improvements to the Emergency Operating Procedures to minimize the offsite release from the damaged SG in case of a SGTR are outlined taking into account the offsite dose sensitivity results.

Criteria to determine seismic risk on sites. Application to Spanish dams

In this paper, the main steps necessary to evaluate the seismic risk on a site are discussed. Several examples from the authors practical experience are reported and a systematic procedure to study the seismic risk on a dam site is also shown. The characteristics of the available Spanish seismic information - mainly historical and non instrumental seismic records - are commented. Different types of seismic and geologic techniques to investigate the area under the dam are given. Finally, a probabilistic method to obtain from the given seismic intensities the design earthquake is summarized

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

Doehlert Design-desirability Function Multi-criteria Optimal Separation Of 17 Phenolic Compounds From Extra-virgin Olive Oil By Capillary Zone Electrophoresis.

In Brazil, the consumption of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) is increasing annually, but there are no experimental studies concerning the phenolic compound contents of commercial EVOO. The aim of this work was to optimise the separation of 17 phenolic compounds already detected in EVOO. A Doehlert matrix experimental design was used, evaluating the effects of pH and electrolyte concentration. Resolution, runtime and migration time relative standard deviation values were evaluated. Derringer's desirability function was used to simultaneously optimise all 37 responses. The 17 peaks were separated in 19min using a fused-silica capillary (50μm internal diameter, 72cm of effective length) with an extended light path and 101.3mmolL(-1) of boric acid electrolyte (pH 9.15, 30kV). The method was validated and applied to 15 EVOO samples found in Brazilian supermarkets.

Relationship Between Lower-limb Muscle Strength And Functional Independence Among Elderly People According To Frailty Criteria: A Cross-sectional Study.

Muscle strength and functional independence are considered to be determinants of frailty levels among elderly people. The aim here was to compare lower-limb muscle strength (LLMS) with functional independence in relation to sex, age and number of frailty criteria, and to ascertain the influence of these variables on elderly outpatients' independence. Quantitative cross-sectional study, in a tertiary hospital. The study was conducted on 150 elderly outpatients of both sexes who were in a cognitive condition allowing oral communication, between October 2005 and October 2007. The following instruments were used: five-times sit-to-stand test (FTSST), Functional Independence Measurement (FIM) and Lawton's Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL). Descriptive, comparative, multivariate, univariate and Cronbach alpha analyses were performed. The mean time taken in the FTSST was 21.7 seconds; the mean score for FIM was 82.2 and for IADL was 21.2; 44.7% of the subjects presented 1-2 frailty criteria and 55.3% > 3 criteria. There was a significant association between LLMS and functional independence in relation to the number of frailty criteria, without homogeneity regarding sex and age. Functional independence showed significant influence from sex and LLMS. Elderly individuals with 1 or 2 frailty criteria presented greater independence in all FTSST scores. The subjects with higher LLMS presented better functional independence.

Fluorescence, Aggregation Properties And Ft-ir Microspectroscopy Of Elastin And Collagen Fibers.

Histological and histochemical observations support the hypothesis that collagen fibers can link to elastic fibers. However, the resulting organization of elastin and collagen type complexes and differences between these materials in terms of macromolecular orientation and frequencies of their chemical vibrational groups have not yet been solved. This study aimed to investigate the macromolecular organization of pure elastin, collagen type I and elastin-collagen complexes using polarized light DIC-microscopy. Additionally, differences and similarities between pure elastin and collagen bundles (CB) were investigated by Fourier transform-infrared (FT-IR) microspectroscopy. Although elastin exhibited a faint birefringence, the elastin-collagen complex aggregates formed in solution exhibited a deep birefringence and formation of an ordered-supramolecular complex typical of collagen chiral structure. The FT-IR study revealed elastin and CB peptide NH groups involved in different types of H-bonding. More energy is absorbed in the vibrational transitions corresponding to CH, CH2 and CH3 groups (probably associated with the hydrophobicity demonstrated by 8-anilino-1-naphtalene sulfonic acid sodium salt [ANS] fluorescence), and to νCN, δNH and ωCH2 groups of elastin compared to CB. It is assumed that the α-helix contribution to the pure elastin amide I profile is 46.8%, whereas that of the B-sheet is 20% and that unordered structures contribute to the remaining percentage. An FT-IR profile library reveals that the elastin signature within the 1360-1189cm(-1) spectral range resembles that of Conex-Toray aramid fibers.

Strict Criteria For Selection Of Laparoscopy For Women With Adnexal Mass.

We compared the indication of laparoscopy for treatment of adnexal masses based on the risk scores and tumor diameters with the indication based on gynecology-oncologists' experience. This was a prospective study of 174 women who underwent surgery for adnexal tumors (116 laparotomies, 58 laparoscopies). The surgeries begun and completed by laparoscopy, with benign pathologic diagnosis, were considered successful. Laparoscopic surgeries that required conversion to laparotomy, led to a malignant diagnosis, or facilitated cyst rupture were considered failures. Two groups were defined for laparoscopy indication: (1) absence of American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (ACOG) guideline for referral of high-risk adnexal masses criteria (ACOG negative) associated with 3 different tumor sizes (10, 12, and 14 cm); and (2) Index of Risk of Malignancy (IRM) with cutoffs at 100, 200, and 300, associated with the same 3 tumor sizes. Both groups were compared with the indication based on the surgeon's experience to verify whether the selection based on strict rules would improve the rate of successful laparoscopy. ACOG-negative and tumors ≤10 cm and IRM with a cutoff at 300 points and tumors ≤10cm resulted in the same best performance (78% success = 38/49 laparoscopies). However, compared with the results of the gynecology-oncologists' experience, those were not statistically significant. The selection of patients with adnexal mass to laparoscopy by the use of the ACOG guideline or IRM associated with tumor diameter had similar performance as the experience of gynecology-oncologists. Both methods are reproducible and easy to apply to all women with adnexal masses and could be used by general gynecologists to select women for laparoscopic surgery; however, referral to a gynecology-oncologist is advisable when there is any doubt.

National Institutes Of Health Consensus Development Project On Criteria For Clinical Trials In Chronic Graft-versus-host Disease: I. The 2014 Diagnosis And Staging Working Group Report.

The 2005 National Institutes of Health (NIH) Consensus Conference proposed new criteria for diagnosing and scoring the severity of chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The 2014 NIH consensus maintains the framework of the prior consensus with further refinement based on new evidence. Revisions have been made to address areas of controversy or confusion, such as the overlap chronic GVHD subcategory and the distinction between active disease and past tissue damage. Diagnostic criteria for involvement of mouth, eyes, genitalia, and lungs have been revised. Categories of chronic GVHD should be defined in ways that indicate prognosis, guide treatment, and define eligibility for clinical trials. Revisions have been made to focus attention on the causes of organ-specific abnormalities. Attribution of organ-specific abnormalities to chronic GVHD has been addressed. This paradigm shift provides greater specificity and more accurately measures the global burden of disease attributed to GVHD, and it will facilitate biomarker association studies.