A Local DLP-GIS-LP system for geographically decentralized wood procurement planning and decision making

Summary

Evidencing and Sharing Value with Decision Making Models in an Industrial Maintenance Network

The objective of this thesis is to concretize the potential benefits that the industrial maintenance case network could achieve through using the value-based life-cycle model and the flexible asset management model. It is also inspected what factors prevent value creation and sharing in the maintenance contract practices of the case network. This thesis is a case study which utilizes modelling. Four scenarios were developed to demonstrate value creation in the future. The data was partly provided by the collaborating company, partly gathered from public financial statement information. The results indicate that value has been created through the past maintenance of the collaborating company’s rod mill and that profitability of the collaborating company has been mostly on satisfactory level during the past few years. Potential value might be created by increasing the share of proactive maintenance of the rod mill in the future. Profitability of the network could be improved in the future through flexible asset management operations. The main obstacle for value creation and sharing seems to be the lack of sufficient trust between the network members.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Decision making and planning of children in the reproductive process of males

Reproduction is not restricted to the biological; it is also a complex and dynamic social process. The objective of this paper is to analyze the decision and planning of children as part of the reproductive process in men. Methodologically, a qualitative research was made. The analysis includes in-depth interviews with 30 parents between 20 and 45 years, of medium socio-economic level in México. The results show that the reproductive process incorporates family formation negotiated with their couple the marriage until they had economic potential. In some cases, their decision hastened because the couple was pregnant. The planning was not contemplated but when getting the news, they accept it and get involved in the process, while others see it as a conflict.

A system's model for maintenance support and decision making in building services systems

Modern buildings are designed to enhance the match between environment, spaces and the people carrying out work, so that the well-being and the performance of the occupants are all in harmony. Building services are systems that facilitate a healthy working environment within which workers productivity can be optimised in the buildings. However, the maintenance of these services is fraught with problems that may contribute to up to 50% of the total life cycle cost of the building. Maintenance support is one area which is not usually designed into the system as this is not common practice in the services industry. The other areas of shortfall for future designs are; client requirements, commissioning, facilities management data and post occupancy evaluation feedback which needs to be adequately planned to capture and document this information for use in future designs. At the University of Reading an integrated approach has been developed to assemble the multitude of aspects inherent in this field. The means records required and measured achievements for the benefit of both building owners and practitioners. This integrated approach can be represented in a Through Life Business Model (TLBM) format using the concept of Integrated Logistic Support (ILS). The prototype TLBM developed utilises the tailored tools and techniques of ILS for building services. This TLBM approach will facilitate the successful development of a databank that would be invaluable in capturing essential data (e.g. reliability of components) for enhancing future building services designs, life cycle costing and decision making by practitioners, in particular facilities managers.

The State, decision-making and planning in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Virtual implant planning in the edentulous maxilla: criteria for decision making of prosthesis design

OBJECTIVES To evaluate prosthetic parameters in the edentulous anterior maxilla for decision making between fixed and removable implant prosthesis using virtual planning software. MATERIAL AND METHODS CT- or DVT-scans of 43 patients (mean age 62 ± 8 years) with an edentulous maxilla were analyzed with the NobelGuide software. Implants (≥3.5 mm diameter, ≥10 mm length) were virtually placed in the optimal three-dimensional prosthetic position of all maxillary front teeth. Anatomical and prosthetic landmarks, including the cervical crown point (C-Point), the acrylic flange border (F-Point), and the implant-platform buccal-end (I-Point) were defined in each middle section to determine four measuring parameters: (1) acrylic flange height (FLHeight), (2) mucosal coverage (MucCov), (3) crown-Implant distance (CID) and (4) buccal prosthesis profile (ProsthProfile). Based on these parameters, all patients were assigned to one of three classes: (A) MucCov ≤ 0 mm and ProsthProfile≥45(0) allowing for fixed prosthesis, (B) MucCov = 0-5 mm and/or ProsthProfile = 30(0) -45(0) probably allowing for fixed prosthesis, and (C) MucCov ≥ 5 mm and/or ProsthProfile ≤ 30(0) where removable prosthesis is favorable. Statistical analyses included descriptive methods and non-parametric tests. RESULTS Mean values were for FLHeight 10.0 mm, MucCov 5.6 mm, CID 7.4 mm, and ProsthProfile 39.1(0) . Seventy percent of patients fulfilled class C criteria (removable), 21% class B (probably fixed), and 2% class A (fixed), while in 7% (three patients) bone volume was insufficient for implant planning. CONCLUSIONS The proposed classification and virtual planning procedure simplify the decision-making process regarding type of prosthesis and increase predictability of esthetic treatment outcomes. It was demonstrated that in the majority of cases, the space between the prosthetic crown and implant platform had to be filled with prosthetic materials.

End -of -life planning and decision -making: Implications for adults with mental retardation

This research focused on the topic of end-of-life planning and decision-making for adults affected by mental retardation. Adults with mental retardation have unique challenges in this regard, including difficulty communicating their wishes without assistance and diminished decision-making skills. The primary research objective was to identify factors that can affect opportunities for adults with mental retardation in community-based services settings (and their advocates) to be involved in planning and deciding about their own end-of-life experience. ^ A descriptive qualitative inquiry was designed to explore issues related to death and dying, and the notion of end-of-life planning, from the perspective of adults with mental retardation who receive publicly-funded community services ("clients") and family members of individuals who receive such services. Study participants were recruited from a single mental retardation service provider in a large urban setting (the "Agency"). Sixteen clients and 14 families of Agency clients took part. Client data collection was accomplished through face-to-face interviews, focus group meetings, and record reviews; family members were involved in a face-to-face interview only. ^ An initial coding scheme was developed based upon literature and policy reviews, and themes related to the research questions. Analysis involved extracting data from transcripts and records and placing it into appropriate thematic categories, building support for each theme with the accumulated data. Coding themes were modified to accommodate new data when it challenged existing themes. ^ Findings suggest that adults with mental retardation do have the requisite knowledge, interest, and ability to participate in decisions about their end-of-life experience and handling of affairs. Siblings are overwhelmingly the chosen future surrogates and they (or their children) will likely be the end-of-life advocates for their brothers and sisters affected by mental retardation. Findings further point to a need for increased awareness, accurate information, and improved communication about end-of-life issues, both in general and particular to adults affected by mental retardation. Also suggested by the findings is a need to focus on creating accommodations and adaptations that can best uncover a person's authentic views on life and death and related end-of-life preferences. Practical implications and suggestions for further research are also discussed. ^

Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.

Accessibility instruments for planning practice: bridging the gap between academic research and decision-making.

One of the core objectives of urban planning practice is to provide spatial equity in terms of opportunities and use of public space and facilities. Accessibility is the element that serves this purpose as a concept linking the reciprocal relationship between transport and land use, thus shaping individual potential mobility to reach the desired destinations. Accessibility concepts are increasingly acknowledged as fundamental to understand the functioning of cities and urban regions. Indeed, by introducing them in planning practice, better solutions can be achieved in terms of spatial equity. The COST Action TU1002 "Accessibility instruments for planning practice" was specifically designed to address the gap between scientific research in measuring and modelling accessibility, and the current use of indicators of accessibility in urban planning practice. This paper shows the full process of introducing an easily understandable measure of accessibility to planning practitioners in Madrid, which is one of the case studies of the above-mentioned COST action. Changes in accessibility after the opening of a new metro line using contour measures were analyzed and then presented to a selection of urban planners and practitioners in Madrid as part of a workshop to evaluate the usefulness of this tool for planning practice. Isochrone maps were confirmed as an effective tool, as their utility can be supplemented by other indicators, and being GIS-based, it can be easily computed (when compared with transport models) and integrated with other datasets.

Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

Warranty and discrete preventive maintenance

Preventive maintenance actions over the warranty period have an impact on the warranty servicing cost to the manufacturer and the cost to the buyer of fixing failures over the life of the product after the warranty expires. However, preventive maintenance costs money and is worthwhile only when these costs exceed the reduction in other costs. The paper deals with a model to determine when preventive maintenance actions (which rejuvenate the unit) carried out at discrete time instants over the warranty period are worthwhile. The cost of preventive maintenance is borne by the buyer. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.