Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Modulation of dermal microvascular endithelial cell responses to growth factors and haemostatic factors in the presence of vitronectin

In order to effect permanent closure in burns patients suffering from full thickness wounds, replacing their skin via split thickness autografting, is essential. Dermal substitutes in conjunction with widely meshed split thickness autografts (+/- cultured keratinocytes) reduce scarring at the donor and recipient sites of burns patients by reducing demand for autologous skin (both surface area and thickness), without compromising dermal delivery at the wound face. Tissue engineered products such as Integra consist of a dermal template which is rapidly remodelled to form a neodermis, at which time the temporary silicone outer layer is removed and replaced with autologous split thickness skin. Whilst provision of a thick tissue engineered dermis at full thickness burn sites reduces scarring, it is hampered by delays in vascularisation which results in clinical failure. The ultimate success of any skin graft product is dependent upon a number of basic factors including adherence, haemostasis and in the case of viable tissue grafts, success is ultimately dependent upon restoration of a normal blood supply, and hence this study. Ultimately, the goal of this research is to improve the therapeutic properties of tissue replacements, through impregnation with growth factors aimed at stimulating migration and proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells into the donor tissue post grafting. For the purpose of my masters, the aim was to evaluate the responsiveness of a dermal microvascular endothelial cell line to growth factors and haemostatic factors, in the presence of the glycoprotein vitronectin. Vitronectin formed the backbone for my hypothesis and research due to its association with both epithelial and, more specifically, endothelial migration and proliferation. Early work using a platform technology referred to as VitroGro (Tissue Therapies Ltd), which is comprised of vitronectin bound BP5/IGF-1, aided keratinocyte proliferation. I hypothesised that this result would translate to another epithelium - endothelium. VitroGro had no effect on endothelial proliferation or migration. Vitronectin increases the presence of Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) receptors, enhancing cell responsiveness to their respective ligands. So, although Human Microvascular Endothelial Cell line 1 (HMEC-1) VEGF receptor expression is generally low, it was hypothesised that exposure to vitronectin would up-regulate this receptor. HMEC-1 migration, but not proliferation, was enhanced by vitronectin bound VEGF, as well as vitronectin bound Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), both of which could be used to stimulate microvascular endothelial cell migration for the purpose of transplantation. In addition to vitronectin's synergy with various growth factors, it has also been shown to play a role in haemostasis. Vitronectin binds thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT) to form a trimeric complex that takes on many of the attributes of vitronectin, such as heparin affinity, which results in its adherence to endothelium via heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSP), followed by unaltered transcytosis through the endothelium, and ultimately its removal from the circulation. This has been documented as a mechanism designed to remove thrombin from the circulation. Equally, it could be argued that it is a mechanism for delivering vitronectin to the matrix. My results show that matrix-bound vitronectin dramatically alters the effect that conformationally altered antithrombin three (cATIII) has on proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells. cATIII stimulates HMEC-1 proliferation in the presence of matrix-bound vitronectin, as opposed to inhibiting proliferation in its absence. Binding vitronectin to tissues and organs prior to transplant, in the presence of cATIII, will have a profound effect on microvascular infiltration of the graft, by preventing occlusion of existing vessels whilst stimulating migration and proliferation of endothelium within the tissue.

Identifying the presence of psychopathy in the community

Aim: Researchers have suggested that approximately 1% of individuals with psychopathic tendencies can successfully function within the community, although there has been a lack of research to support this claim. The current study aimed to identify individuals with psychopathic tendencies within a community sample and furthermore the socio-demographic correlates of this community integrated psychopath (e.g. relationship stability, substance use, and employment status). Procedure: 300 participants completed the Self-Reported Psychopathy scale – version 3 which contains four core psychopathy subfactors: (a) Interpersonal Manipulation, (b) Callous Affect, (c) Erratic Lifestyle and (d) Criminal Tendencies as well as the Paulhus Deception Scales to explore the effect of impression management and self-deception on the identification of psychopathy. Findings: Results indicated that at least 1% of the current community displayed characteristics consistent with psychopathic tendencies. A series of bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted which indicated that gender, age and alcohol misuse were predictive of psychopathy scores for this sample. More specifically, younger males who tend to misuse alcohol were found to be most likely to have psychopathic tendencies. Interestingly, impression management and self-deception was not associated with such tendencies. Discussion: The results provide some support for the assertion that individuals with psychopathic tendencies can be identified within the community (regardless of impression management techniques) and that such tendencies are associated with specific socio-demographic characteristics.

Operation and control of a DVR in the presence of interharmonics

The paper discusses the operating principles and control characteristics of a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR). It is assumed that the source voltages contain interharmonic components in addition to fundamental components. The main aim of the DVR is to produce a set of clean balanced sinusoidal voltages across the load terminals irrespective of unbalance, distortion and voltage sag/swell in the supply voltage. An algorithm has been discussed for extracting fundamental phasor sequence components from the samples of three-phase voltages or current waveforms having integer harmonics and interharmonics. The DVR operation based on extracted components is demonstrated. The switching signal is generated using a deadbeat controller. It has been shown that the DVR is able to compensate these interharmonic components such that the load voltages are perfectly regulated. The DVR operation under deep voltage sag is also discussed. The proposed DVR operation is verified through the computer simulation studies using the MATLAB software package.

Hearing impairment affects older people’s ability to drive in the presence of distracters

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effects of hearing impairment and distractibility on older people's driving ability, assessed under real-world conditions. DESIGN: Experimental cross-sectional study. SETTING: University laboratory setting and an on-road driving test. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred seven community-living adults aged 62 to 88. Fifty-five percent had normal hearing, 26% had a mild hearing impairment, and 19% had a moderate or greater impairment. ---------- MEASUREMENTS: Hearing was assessed using objective impairment measures (pure-tone audiometry, speech perception testing) and a self-report measure (Hearing Handicap Inventory for the Elderly). Driving was assessed on a closed road circuit under three conditions: no distracters, auditory distracters, and visual distracters. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between hearing impairment and distracters, such that people with moderate to severe hearing impairment had significantly poorer driving performance in the presence of distracters than those with normal or mild hearing impairment. CONCLUSION: Older adults with poor hearing have greater difficulty with driving in the presence of distracters than older adults with good hearing.

Re-imagining China's future : soft power, cultural presence and the East Asian media market

As various contributors to this volume suggest, the term soft power is multifaceted. In 2002 Joseph Nye, the political scientist who coined the term more than a decade previously, noted that the soft power of a country rests on three resources: a country’s culture, its political values, and its foreign policies (Nye 2002). However, several factors can be drawn together to explain China’s adoption of this concept. First, China’s economic influence has precipitated a groundswell of nationalism, which reached its apex at the Opening Ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. This global media event provided an international platform to demonstrate China’s new found self-confidence. Second, cultural diplomacy and foreign aid, particularly through Third World channels is seen by the Chinese Communist Party leadership as an appropriate way to extend Chinese influence globally (Kurlantzick 2007). Third, education in Chinese culture through globally dispersed Confucius Institutes is charged with improving international understanding of Chinese culture and values, and in the process renovating negative images of China. Fourth, the influence of Japanese and Korean popular culture on China’s youth cultures in recent years has caused acute discomfit to cultural nationalists. Many contend it is time to stem the tide. Fifth, the past few years have witnessed a series of lively debates about the importance of industries such as design, advertising, animation and fashion, resulting in the construction of hundreds of creative clusters, animation centres, film backlots, cultural precincts, design centres and artist lofts.

Modal parameter estimation in the presence of non-linearities

This paper investigates the use of time-frequency techniques to assist in the estimation of power system modes which are resolvable by a Digital Fourier Transform (DFT). The limitations of linear estimation techniques in the presence of large disturbances which excite system non-linearities, particularly the swing equation non-linearity are shown. Where a nonlinearity manifests itself as time varying modal frequencies the Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) is used to describe the variation in modal frequencies and construct a window over which standard linear estimation techniques can be used. The error obtained even in the presence of multiple resolvable modes is better than 2%.

Robust tracking control of autonomous underwater vehicles in the presence of disturbance inputs

An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is expected to operate in an ocean in the presence of poorly known disturbance forces and moments. The uncertainties of the environment makes it difficult to apply open-loop control scheme for the motion planning of the vehicle. The objective of this paper is to develop a robust feedback trajectory tracking control scheme for an AUV that can track a prescribed trajectory amidst such disturbances. We solve a general problem of feedback trajectory tracking of an AUV in SE(3). The feedback control scheme is derived using Lyapunov-type analysis. The results obtained from numerical simulations confirm the asymptotic tracking properties of the feedback control law. We apply the feedback control scheme to different mission scenarios, with the disturbances being initial errors in the state of the AUV.

A tale of six fish: achieving social presence through discussion forums in an offline learning environment

It is widely held, through the Socratic tradition, that discussion is at the heart of learning. Moderated discussion forums have been shown to replicate the debate, argument and verbal defence of viewpoints that we have come to expect in face-to-face learning environments and that we generally accept to underpin learning. While much has been written about discussion forums in educational settings, particularly in how to moderate and promote effective interaction with students at a distance, this paper takes a different approach. It looks at how forums may be used to support face-to-face learning in the contemporary context of the massification of on-campus classes. Further to this, it will argue for discussion forums as an indicator of social presence in the learning environment. It will cautiously conclude that, through purposeful design, this form of asynchronous communication has a valuable role to play in creating a positive and supportive environment for students entering university. Discussion forums are tools with a versatility yet to be fully exploited.

On the behaviour of higher-order spectral features for object recognition in the presence of various types of noise

This paper presents results on the robustness of higher-order spectral features to Gaussian, Rayleigh, and uniform distributed noise. Based on cluster plots and accuracy results for various signal to noise conditions, the higher-order spectral features are shown to be better than moment invariant features.

Useful field of view predicts driving in the presence of distracters

Purpose. The Useful Field of View (UFOV(R)) test has been shown to be highly effective in predicting crash risk among older adults. An important question which we examined in this study is whether this association is due to the ability of the UFOV to predict difficulties in attention-demanding driving situations that involve either visual or auditory distracters. Methods. Participants included 92 community-living adults (mean age 73.6 +/- 5.4 years; range 65-88 years) who completed all three subtests of the UFOV involving assessment of visual processing speed (subtest 1), divided attention (subtest 2), and selective attention (subtest 3); driving safety risk was also classified using the UFOV scoring system. Driving performance was assessed separately on a closed-road circuit while driving under three conditions: no distracters, visual distracters, and auditory distracters. Driving outcome measures included road sign recognition, hazard detection, gap perception, time to complete the course, and performance on the distracter tasks. Results. Those rated as safe on the UFOV (safety rating categories 1 and 2), as well as those responding faster than the recommended cut-off on the selective attention subtest (350 msec), performed significantly better in terms of overall driving performance and also experienced less interference from distracters. Of the three UFOV subtests, the selective attention subtest best predicted overall driving performance in the presence of distracters. Conclusions. Older adults who were rated as higher risk on the UFOV, particularly on the selective attention subtest, demonstrated poorest driving performance in the presence of distracters. This finding suggests that the selective attention subtest of the UFOV may be differentially more effective in predicting driving difficulties in situations of divided attention which are commonly associated with crashes.