Non-uptake of predictive genetic testing for BRCA1/2 among relatives of known carriers: Attributes, cancer worry, and barriers to testing in a multicenter clinical cohort

BRCA1/2 test decliners/deferrers have received almost no attention in the literature and this is the first study of this population in the United Kingdom. The aim of this multicenter study is to examine the attributes of a group of individuals offered predictive genetic testing for breast/ovarian cancer predisposition who did not wish to proceed with testing at the time of entry into this study. This forms part of a larger study involving 9 U.K. centers investigating the psychosocial impact of predictive genetic testing for BRCA1/2. Cancer worry and reasons for declining or deferring BRCA1/2 predictive genetic testing were evaluated by questionnaire following genetic counseling. A total of 34 individuals declined the offer of predictive genetic testing. Compared to the national cohort of test acceptors, test decliners are significantly younger. Female test decliners have lower levels of cancer worry than female test acceptors. Barriers to testing include apprehension about the result, traveling to the genetics clinic, and taking time away from work/family. Women are more likely than men to worry about receiving less screening if found not to be a carrier. The findings do not indicate that healthy BRCA1/2 test decliners are a more vulnerable group in terms of cancer worry. However, barriers to testing need to be discussed in genetic counseling.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

Near infrared for non-destructive testing of articular cartilage

The concept of non-destructive testing (NDT) of materials and structures is of immense importance in engineering and medicine. Several NDT methods including electromagnetic (EM)-based e.g. X-ray and Infrared; ultrasound; and S-waves have been proposed for medical applications. This paper evaluates the viability of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, an EM method for rapid non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that there is a correlation between the NIR spectrum and the physical and mechanical characteristics of articular cartilage such as thickness, stress and stiffness. Intact, visually normal cartilage-on-bone plugs from 2-3yr old bovine patellae were exposed to NIR light from a diffuse reflectance fibre-optic probe and tested mechanically to obtain their thickness, stress, and stiffness. Multivariate statistical analysis-based predictive models relating articular cartilage NIR spectra to these characterising parameters were developed. Our results show that there is a varying degree of correlation between the different parameters and the NIR spectra of the samples with R2 varying between 65 and 93%. We therefore conclude that NIR can be used to determine, nondestructively, the physical and functional characteristics of articular cartilage.

Material model of lung parenchyma based on living precision-cut lung slice testing.

We describe a novel constitutive model of lung parenchyma, which can be used for continuum mechanics based predictive simulations. To develop this model, we experimentally determined the nonlinear material behavior of rat lung parenchyma. This was achieved via uni-axial tension tests on living precision-cut rat lung slices. The resulting force-displacement curves were then used as inputs for an inverse analysis. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was utilized to optimize the material parameters of combinations and recombinations of established strain-energy density functions (SEFs). Comparing the best-fits of the tested SEFs we found Wpar = 4.1 kPa(I1-3)2 + 20.7 kPa(I1 - 3)3 + 4.1 kPa(-2 ln J + J2 - 1) to be the optimal constitutive model. This SEF consists of three summands: the first can be interpreted as the contribution of the elastin fibers and the ground substance, the second as the contribution of the collagen fibers while the third controls the volumetric change. The presented approach will help to model the behavior of the pulmonary parenchyma and to quantify the strains and stresses during ventilation.

Model based control for closed loop testing of 1-D engine simulation models

1-D engine simulation models are widely used for the analysis and verification of air-path design concepts and prediction of the resulting engine transient response. The latter often requires closed loop control over the model to ensure operation within physical limits and tracking of reference signals. For this purpose, a particular implementation of Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on a corresponding Mean Value Engine Model (MVEM) is reported here. The MVEM is linearised on-line at each operating point to allow for the formulation of quadratic programming (QP) problems, which are solved as the part of the proposed MPC algorithm. The MPC output is used to control a 1-D engine model. The closed loop performance of such a system is benchmarked against the solution of a related optimal control problem (OCP). As an example this study is focused on the transient response of a light-duty car Diesel engine. For the cases examined the proposed controller implementation gives a more systematic procedure than other ad-hoc approaches that require considerable tuning effort. © 2012 IFAC.

Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Toxicology Challenge 2000-2001

Toivonen, H., Srinivasan, A., King, R. D., Kramer, S. and Helma, C. (2003) Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Toxicology Challenge 2000-2001. Bioinformatics 19: 1183-1193

Predictive reliability and prognostics for electronic components: current capabilities and future challenges

Future analysis tools that predict the behavior of electronic components, both during qualification testing and in-service lifetime assessment, will be very important in predicting product reliability and identifying when to undertake maintenance. This paper will discuss some of these techniques and illustrate these with examples. The paper will also discuss future challenges for these techniques.

Predictive reliability, prognostics and risk assessment for power modules

This paper describes a framework that is being developed for the prediction and analysis of electronics power module reliability both for qualification testing and in-service lifetime prediction. Physics of failure (PoF) reliability methodology using multi-physics high-fidelity and reduced order computer modelling, as well as numerical optimization techniques, are integrated in a dedicated computer modelling environment to meet the needs of the power module designers and manufacturers as well as end-users for both design and maintenance purposes. An example of lifetime prediction for a power module solder interconnect structure is described. Another example is the lifetime prediction of a power module for a railway traction control application. Also in the paper a combined physics of failure and data trending prognostic methodology for the health monitoring of power modules is discussed.

Molecular testing of respiratory swabs aids early recognition of meningococcal disease in children

Early meningococcal disease (MD) diagnosis is difficult. We assessed rapid molecular testing of respiratory specimens. We performed genotyping of respiratory swabs, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid from children with suspected disease and nasal swabs (NSs) from matched controls. Thirty-nine of 104 suspected cases had confirmed disease. Four controls were carriers. Throat swab ctrA and porA testing for detection of disease gave a sensitivity of 81% (17/21), specificity of 100% (44/44), positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% (17/17), negative predictive value (NPV) of 92% (44/48), and relative risk of 12. NS ctrA and porA testing gave a sensitivity of 51% (20/39), specificity of 95% (62/65), PPV of 87% (20/23), NPV of 77% (62/81), and relative risk of 4. Including only the 86 NSs taken within 48 h of presentation, the results were sensitivity of 60% (18/30), specificity of 96% (54/56), PPV of 90% (18/20), NPV of 82% (54/66), and relative risk of 5. Swab type agreement was excellent (kappa 0.80, P