Predicting future ecological degradation based on modelled thresholds

Threshold models are becoming important in determining the ecological consequences of our actions within the environment and have a key role in setting bounds on targets used by natural resource managers. We have been using thresholds and related concepts adapted from the multiple stable-states literature to model ecosystem response in the Coorong, the estuary for Australia’s largest river. Our modelling approach is based upon developing a state-and-transition model, with the states defined by the biota and the transitions defined by a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of the environmental data for the region. Here we explore the behaviour of thresholds within that model. Managers tend to plan for a set of often arbitrarily-derived thresholds in their natural resource management. We attempt to assess how the precision afforded by analyses such as CART translates into ecological outcomes, and explicitly trial several approaches to understanding thresholds and transitions in our model and how they might be relevant for management. We conclude that the most promising approach would be a mixture of further modelling (using past behaviour to predict future degradation) in conjunction with targeted experiments to confirm the results. Our case study of the Coorong is further developed, particularly for the modelling stages of the protocol, to provide recommendations to improve natural resource management strategies that are currently in use.

Predicting future anabolic-androgenic steroid use intentions with current substance use : findings from an internet-based survey.

OBJECTIVE: To explore how current substance use, including the use of sports supplements and illicit drugs, may impact upon a person's future intentions to use anabolic-androgenic steroids (AAS).

DESIGN: Web-based survey.

PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred fourteen exercising males (mean age, 30 years; range, 17-61 years) recruited from 5 gymnasia in Sydney, Australia, completed a web-based survey. The survey contained questions relating to sport supplement use, illicit substance use, reasons for currently not using AAS, and reasons for intending to use AAS in the future.

INTERVENTIONS: Participants completed a structured interview schedule that included questions regarding licit and illicit substance use, reasons for non-AAS use, and, where appropriate, reasons for intended future AAS use.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The planned main outcome measure was positive intention to use AAS.

RESULTS: Sixteen percent of the sample indicated that they would use AAS in the future. Reasons for future AAS use included increasing muscle size (80%), improving appearance (74%), and increasing strength (57%). Four-fifths (80%) of the sample reported use of sports supplements, with vitamins and protein supplements commonly reported (83% and 67%, respectively); more than one-third (36%) reported use of creatine in the past 6 months. Half (52%) of the sample reported use of illicit substances in the preceding 6 months, with amphetamines and cannabis commonly reported (66% and 62%, respectively). Significant predictors of intending to use AAS included past 6-month use of creatine and knowing AAS users.

CONCLUSIONS: The use of sport supplements and/or illicit substances may remove barriers for the future use of such drugs as AAS. Future research is necessary to explore in depth whether such substances may act as a "gateway" to future AAS use.

Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Satisfaction as a predictor of future performance:a replication

Since the introduction of the Net Promoter concept there has been a vivid and ongoing debate among academics and practitioners about the performance of the Net Promoter Score (NPS) in comparison to other customer metrics, such as customer satisfaction, to predict company growth rates. We report results from a study using data from customers and firms in the Netherlands on the relationship between different satisfaction and loyalty metrics as well as the NPS with sales revenue growth, gross margins and net operating cash flows. We find that all metrics perform equally well in predicting current gross margins and current sales revenue growth and equally poor for predicting future sales growth and gross margins as well as current and future net cash flows. The NPS is neither superior nor inferior to other metrics. Taken together, our study suggests that the predictive capability of customer metrics, such as NPS, for future company growth rates is limited. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

International evidence on the payout ratio, earnings, dividends and returns

ap Gwilym, Owain, et al., 'International evidence on the payout ratio, earnings, dividends and returns', Financial Analysts Journal (2006) 62(1) pp.36-53 RAE2008

Organic and acquisitive employment growth : re-examining,testing and extending Penrose's Growth Theory.

Edith Penrose’s theory of firm growth postulates that a firm’s current growth rate will be influenced by the adjustment costs of, and changes to a firm’s productive opportunity set arising from, previous growth. Although she explicitly considered the impact of previous organic growth on current organic growth, she was largely silent about the impact of previous acquisitive growth. In this paper we extend Penrose’s work to examine that the relative impact of organic and acquisitive growth on the adjustment costs and productive opportunity set of the firm. Employing a panel of commercially active enterprises in Sweden over a 10 year period our results suggest the following. First, previous organic growth acts as a constraint on current organic growth. Second, previous acquisitive growth has a positive effect on current organic growth. We conclude that organic growth and acquisitive growth constitute two distinct strategic options facing the firm, which have a differential impact on the future organic growth of the firm.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

It’s not me, it’s you : a participant observation case study of the self-publishing musician in the 21st century

This thesis explores the business environment for self-publishing musicians at the end of the 20th century and the start of the 21st century from theoretical and empirical standpoints. The exploration begins by asking three research questions: what are the factors affecting the sustainability of an Independent music business; how many of those factors can be directly influenced by an Independent musician in the day-to-day operations of their musical enterprise; and how can those factors be best manipulated to maximise the benefit generated from digital music assets? It answers these questions by considering the nature of value in the music business in light of theories of political economy, then quantitative and qualitative examinations of the nature of participation in the music business, and then auto-ethnographic approaches to the application of two technologically enabled tools available to Independent musicians. By analyzing the results of five different examinations of the topic it answers each research question with reference to four sets of recurring issues that affect the operations of a 21st century music business: the musicians’ personal characteristics, their ability to address their business’s informational needs; their ability to manage the relationships upon which their business depends; and their ability to resolve the remaining technological problems that confront them. It discusses ways in which Independent self-publishing musicians can and cannot deal with these four issues on a day-to-day basis and highlights aspects for which technological solutions do not exist as well as ways in which technology is not as effective as has been claimed. It then presents a self-critique and proposes some directions for further study before concluding by suggesting some common features of 21st century Independent music businesses. This thesis makes three contributions to knowledge. First, it provides a new understanding of the sources of musical value, shows how this explains changes in the music industries over the past 30 years, and provides a framework for predicting future developments in those industries. Second, it shows how the technological discontinuity that has occurred around the start of the 21st century has and has not affected the production and distribution of digital cultural artefacts and thus the attitudes, approaches, and business prospects of Independent musicians. Third, it argues for new understandings of two methods by which self-publishing musicians can grow a business using production methods that are only beginning to be more broadly understood: home studio recording and fan-sourced production. Developed from the perspective of working musicians themselves, this thesis identifies four sets of issues that determine the probable success of musicians’ efforts to adopt new technologies to capture the value of the musicians’ creativity and thereby foster growth that will sustain an Independent music business in the 21st century.

Psychosocial experience of cancer : surpassing mere survival and recognising the potential for posttraumatic growth as well as distress.

The publication of the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) introduced the notion that a life-threatening illness can be a stressor and catalyst for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Since then a solid body of research has been established investigating the post-diagnosis experience of cancer. These studies have identified a number of short and long-term life changes resulting from a diagnosis of cancer and associated treatments. In this chapter, we discuss the psychosocial response to the cancer experience and the potential for cancer-related distress. Cancer can represent a life-threatening diagnosis that may be associated with aggressive treatments and result in physical and psychological changes. The potential for future trauma through the lasting effects of the disease and treatment, and the possibility of recurrence, can be a source of continued psychological distress. In addition to the documented adverse repercussions of cancer, we also outline the recent shift that has occurred in the psycho-oncology literature regarding positive life change or posttraumatic growth that is commonly reported after a diagnosis of cancer. Adopting a salutogenic framework acknowledges that the cancer experience is a dynamic psychosocial process with both negative and positive repercussions. Next, we describe the situational and individual factors that are associated with posttraumatic growth and the types of positive life change that are prevalent in this context. Finally, we discuss the implications of this research in a therapeutic context and the directions of future posttraumatic growth research with cancer survivors. This chapter will present both quantitative and qualitative research that indicates the potential for personal growth from adversity rather than just mere survival and return to pre-diagnosis functioning. It is important to emphasise however, that the presence of growth and prevalence of resilience does not negate the extremely distressing nature of a cancer diagnosis for the patient and their families and the suffering that can accompany treatment regimes. Indeed, it will be explained that for growth to occur, the experience must be one that quite literally shatters previously held schemas in order to act as a catalyst for change.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Germination Biology and Occurrence of Polyembryony in Two Forms of Cats Claw Creeper Vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae): Implications for Its Invasiveness and Management

Cat’s claw creeper vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), is a major environmental weed in Australia. Two forms of the weed with distinctive leaf morphology and reproductive traits, including varying fruit size, occur in Queensland, Australia. The long pod form occurs in a few localities in Queensland, while the short pod form is widely distributed in Queensland and northern part of New South Wales. This investigation aimed to evaluate germination behavior and occurrence of polyembryony (production of multiple seedlings from a single seed) in the two forms of the weed. Seeds were germinated in growth chambers set to 10/20°C, 15/25°C, 20/30°C, 30/45°C and 25°C, representing ambient temperature conditions of the region. Germination and polyembryony were monitored over a period of 12 weeks. For all the treatments in this study, seeds from short pod plants exhibited significantly higher germination rates and higher occurrence of polyembryony than those from long pod plants. Seeds from long pod plants did not germinate at the lowest temperature of 10/20°C; in contrast, those of the short pod form germinated under this condition, albeit at a lower rate (reaching a maximum 45% germination at week 12). Results from this study could explain why the short pod form of D. unguis-cati is the more widely distributed plants in Australia, while the long pod is confined to a few localities. The results have implication in predicting future range of both forms of the invasive D. unguis-cati, as well as inform management decisions for control of the weed.