Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Family visitors and companions of hospitalized elderly and adults: analysis of the experience from the perspective of the nursing working process

Trata-se de estudo qualitativo, utilizando-se como referencial metodológico a Grounded Theory e como referencial teórico o Processo de Trabalho em Enfermagem, para compreender o papel assumido pelo enfermeiro perante as normas e rotinas hospitalares, relativas aos familiares visitantes e acompanhantes de adultos e idosos internados em um Hospital Universitário. A análise dos dados permitiu a identificação do tema: definindo-se a modalidade de apoio familiar durante a hospitalização, que reúne duas categorias principais: tornando-se familiar visitante e tornando-se familiar acompanhante. Por meio da análise, pôde-se aprofundar a compreensão do quanto as regras estabelecidas, com o objetivo de disciplinar e tornar eficiente o trabalho desenvolvido no hospital, podem explicitar o desprovimento de autonomia no processo de trabalho, para modificar as relações nesse contexto e o quanto a apropriação do familiar como parte da equipe de saúde, está distante de ser pensada no concreto das instituições.

Small particles in Pluto's environment: Effects of the solar radiation pressure

Impacts of micrometeoroids on the surfaces of the plutonian small satellites Nix and Hydra can generate dust particles. Even in this region so far from the Sun these tiny ejected particles are under the effects of the solar radiation pressure. In this work, we investigate the orbital evolution of the escaping ejecta from both the small satellites under the effects of the radiation pressure combined with the gravitational effects of Pluto, Charon, Nix and Hydra. The mass production rate of micron-sized dust particles generated by micrometeoroids hitting the satellites is obtained, and numerical simulations are performed to derive the lifetime of the ejecta. These pieces of information allow us to estimate the optical depth of a putative ring, which extends from the orbits of Nix to Hydra. The ejected particles, between the orbits of Nix and Hydra, form a wide ring of about 16 000 km. Collisions with the massive bodies and escape from the system are mainly determined by the effects of the solar radiation pressure. This is an important loss mechanism, removing 30 per cent of the initial set of 1 μm-sized particles in 1 yr. The surviving particles form a ring too faint to be detectable with the derived maximum optical depth of 4 × 10-11. © 2013 The Authors Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Feeding ecology of immature Lithodoras dorsalis (Valenciennes, 1840) (Siluriformes: Doradidae) in a tidal environment, estuary of the rio Amazonas

O estudo da ecologia alimentar de peixes é uma abordagem consistente na avaliação dos processos interativos dentro das comunidades. Dessa forma, este trabalho teve como objetivo investigar a ecologia alimentar do bacu-pedra Lithodoras dorsalis em furos próximos no delta do estuário Amazônico (Brasil), uma área sobre influência de macro-marés, em diferentes períodos pluviométricos. Durante 12 meses de coletas (julho de 2010 a junho de 2011), foram coligidos 371 espécimes jovens, sendo que a dieta da espécie foi composta por 28 itens alimentares analisados pelos seguintes índices: Índice de Repleção Estomacal, Índice de Importância Alimentar e Amplitude de Nicho. Lithodoras dorsalis quando jovem foi classificada como herbívora com tendência à frugivoria, devido aos altos valores de importância de frutos e sementes em sua dieta. A intensidade de obtenção de alimento por L. dorsalis diferiu entre os meses de coleta, onde o final do período de transição chuva-estiagem e o início da estiagem foram os períodos de menor e maior atividade alimentar, respectivamente. Também houve diferença na importância alimentar dos itens entre os períodos pluviométricos. Estes resultados fornecem informações importantes sobre a ecologia alimentar de doradídeos na Amazônia. Além disso, percebeu-se o alto consumo de material alóctone pelo bacu-pedra, sendo estes itens alimentares provenientes da floresta ripária, o que reforça a importância deste ambiente para a conservação da ictiofauna neotropical.

Content Validation of the Operational Definitions of the Nursing Diagnoses of Activity Intolerance, Excess Fluid Volume, and Decreased Cardiac Output in Patients With Heart Failure

Objectives To consensually validate the operational definitions of the nursing diagnoses activity intolerance, excessive fluid volume, and decreased cardiac output in patients with decompensated heart failure. Method Consensual validation was performed in two stages: analogy by similarity of defining characteristics, and development of operational definitions and validation with experts. Results A total of 38 defining characteristics were found. Operational definitions were developed and content-validated. One hundred percent of agreement was achieved among the seven experts after five rounds. Ascites was added in the nursing diagnosis excessive fluid volume. Conclusion The consensual validation improves interpretation of human response, grounding the selection of nursing interventions and contributing to improved nursing outcomes. Implications for Practice Support the assessment of patients with decompensated heart failure. Objetivos Realizar a validacAo consensual das definicoes operacionais dos diagnosticos de enfermagem Intolerancia a atividade, Volume de liquidos excessivo e Debito cardiaco diminuido em pacientes com insuficiencia cardiaca descompensada. Metodo ValidacAo consensual em duas etapas: Analogia de semelhanca das caracteristicas definidoras e desenvolvimento de definicoes operacionais e validacAo com expertst. Resultados Foram encontradas 38 caracteristicas definidoras para os diagnosticos de enfermagem. Suas definicoes operacionais foram desenvolvidas e seu conteudo validado. Os resultados mostram que houve 100% de concordancia entre os sete experts apos cinco rodada. As definicoes operacionais foram classificadas com base no nivel de concordanica. Ascite foi acrescentada ao diagnostico Volume de liquidos excessivo. ConclusAo A validacAo consensual melhora a interpretacAo das respostas humanas, embasando a selecAo de intervencoes de enfermagem e contribuindo para melhorar os resultados. Implicacoes Para A Pratica Apoio a avaliacAo dos pacientes com insuficiencia cardiaca descompensada.

Data collection on bone density of mandibular alveolar bone on a Hounsfield scale of the dental apex of the cranial root of the first inferior molar in dogs using computed tomography at FMVZ-UNESP

The head is the most important and specialized region in the body because it contains a range of specialized organs and, because it has interconnections between specialized organs, there is a great overlap of images. Thus, computed tomography (CT) helps in diagnosing diseases in this region, such as oral conditions, as they provide millimetric slices or cuts and demonstrate the relationship between the various anatomical structures involved, in volume and depth. Within dentistry, CT helps in the identification of pathological processes such as infection, tumors, visualization of embedded teeth and bone bed. This study aimed to assess the density of the mandibular alveolar bone at a determined point to later predict how periodontal disease is involved in bone resorption. For this, we performed a blind retrospective study (n = 124) of the CT scan files of dog skulls at FMVZ-UNESP in order to determine the density of the jaw bone using a Hounsfield scale, in the region of the dental apex of the cranial root of the first molar tooth in dogs. The results obtained were evaluated using mean and standard deviation (27.28 +/- 9.53 HU) in order to predict the normal density of the mandibular alveolar bone in the studied region. Thus, this data analysis allows a more concise evaluation of bone resorption of mandibular alveolar bone and, therefore, provides an adequate surgical planning in cases of osteosynthesis given mainly by the presence of installed periodontal disease.

Validation of the Duke Religion Index: DUREL (Portuguese Version)

The purpose of the current study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of the Duke Religion Index (PDUREL) in a community setting. PDUREL was translated and adapted for administration to 383 individuals from a population-based study of low-income community-dwelling adults. The PDUREL intrinsic subscale and total scores demonstrated high internal consistency (alphas ranging from 0.733 for the total scale score to 0.758 for the intrinsic subscale). Correlations among the DUREL subscales were also examined for evidence of discriminant validity. Correlations were ranging from 0.36 to 0.46, indicating significant overlap between the scales without marked redundancy. PDUREL is a reliable and valid scale. The availability of a comprehensive, but brief measure of religiousness can help to study the role of religiousness in health by researchers from countries that speak the Portuguese language.

Factor Structure of the Neck Disability Index

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The Neck Disability Index frequently is used to measure outcomes of the neck. The statistical rigor of the Neck Disability Index has been assessed with conflicting outcomes. To date, Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Neck Disability Index has not been reported for a suitably large population study. Because the Neck Disability Index is not a condition-specific measure of neck function, initial Confirmatory Factor Analysis should consider problematic neck patients as a homogenous group. PURPOSE: We sought to analyze the factor structure of the Neck Disability Index through Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a symptomatic, homogeneous, neck population, with respect to pooled populations and gender subgroups. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of pooled data. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 1,278 symptomatic neck patients (67.5% female, median age 41 years), 803 nonspecific and 475 with whiplash-associated disorder. OUTCOME MEASURES: The Neck Disability Index was used to measure outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed pooled baseline data from six independent studies of patients with neck problems who completed Neck Disability Index questionnaires at baseline. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis was considered in three scenarios: the full sample and separate sexes. Models were compared empirically for best fit. RESULTS: Two-factor models have good psychometric properties across both the pooled and sex subgroups. However, according to these analyses, the one-factor solution is preferable from both a statistical perspective and parsimony. The two-factor model was close to significant for the male subgroup (p<.07) where questions separated into constructs of mental function (pain, reading headaches and concentration) and physical function (personal care, lifting, work, driving, sleep, and recreation). CONCLUSIONS: The Neck Disability Index demonstrated a one-factor structure when analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a pooled, homogenous sample of neck problem patients. However, a two-factor model did approach significance for male subjects where questions separated into constructs of mental and physical function. Further investigations in different conditions, subgroup and sex-specific populations are warranted.

TALDICE-1 age scale of the Talos Dome deep ice core, East Antarctica

A new deep ice core drilling program, TALDICE, has been successfully handled by a European team at Talos Dome, in the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica, down to 1620 m depth. Using stratigraphic markers and a new inverse method, we produce the first official chronology of the ice core, called TALDICE-1. We show that it notably improves an a priori chronology resulting from a one-dimensional ice flow model. It is in agreement with a posteriori controls of the resulting accumulation rate and thinning function along the core. An absolute uncertainty of only 300 yr is obtained over the course of the last deglaciation. This uncertainty remains lower than 600 yr over Marine Isotope Stage 3, back to 50 kyr BP. The phasing of the TALDICE ice core climate record with respect to the central East Antarctic plateau and Greenland records can thus be determined with a precision allowing for a discussion of the mechanisms at work at sub-millennial time scales.

Psychometric properties of the Swiss version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture

The Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture (NHSPSC) was specifically developed for nursing homes to assess a facility’s safety climate and it consists of 12 dimensions. After its pilot testing, however, no fur- ther psychometric analyses were performed on the instrument. For this study of safety climate in Swiss nursing home units, the NHSPSC was linguistically adapted to the Swiss context and to address the unit as well as facility level, with the aim of testing aspects of the validity and reliability of the Swiss version before its use in Swiss nursing home units. Psychometric analyses were performed on data from 367 nurs- ing personnel from nine nursing homes in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (response rate = 66%), and content validity (CVI) examined. The statistical influence of unit membership on respondents’ answers, and on their agreement concerning their units’ safety climate, was tested using intraclass corre- lation coefficients (ICCs) and the rWG(J) interrater agreement index. A multilevel exploratory factor analysis (MEFA) with oblimin rotation was applied to examine the questionnaire’s dimensionality. Cronbach’s alpha and Raykov’s rho were calculated to assess factor reliability. The relationship of safety climate dimensions with clinical outcomes was explored. Expert feedback confirmed the relevance of the instru- ment’s items (CVI = 0.93). Personnel showed strong agreement in their perceptions in three dimensions of the questionnaire. ICCs supported a multilevel analysis. MEFA produced nine factors at the within-level (in comparison to 12 in the original version) and two factors at the between-level with satisfactory fit statis- tics. Raykov’s Rho for the single level factors ranged between 0.67 and 0.86. Some safety climate dimen- sions show moderate, but non-significant correlations with the use of bedrails, physical restraint use, and fall-related injuries. The Swiss version of the NHSPSC needs further refinement and testing before its use can be recommended in Swiss nursing homes: its dimensionality needs further clarification, particularly to distinguish items addressing the unit-level safety climate from those at the facility level.

The organizations transcomplejas from the perspective of the nursing

El propósito del artículo es el análisis de las organizaciones transcomplejas desde la perspectiva de la Enfermería, en el contexto del paradigma de la complejidad. Todos los cuestionamientos realizados a las ciencias de la modernidad fueron necesarios para dar al mundo desarrollos de enorme significación, como es el paradigma de la complejidad donde se rescata la idea de la totalidad universal y con ella el holismo dentro de las organizaciones, si se consideran estas como organismos vivo; y este aplicado al campo de la salud donde los profesionales del cuidado de la salud entre ellos la enfermería ha aceptado la perspectiva de salud holística como, más que la ausencia de enfermedad, como la realización individual. La humanidad vive una crisis de fragmentación que conduce a sentimientos y emociones destructivas de la armonía y del arte de vivir en equilibrio. La perspectiva holistica se preocupa de promover la salud mediante la prevención y se aplica a las personas que se recuperan de una enfermedad y desean aprender a prevenir su repetición y mejorar su estatus de salud futura. Así, la enfermería estudia la totalidad o la salud de los humanos, reconociendo que los humanos están en continua interacción con su medio ambiente

Numerical evaluation of the vibration reduction index for structural joints

The present paper addresses the analysis of structural vibration transmission in the presence of structural joints. The problem is tackled from a numerical point of view, analyzing some scenarios by using finite element models. The numerical results obtained making use of this process are then compared with those evaluated using the EN 12354 standard vibration reduction index concept. It is shown that, even for the simplest cases, the behavior of a structural joint is complex and evidences the frequency dependence. Comparison with results obtained by empirical formulas reveals that those of the standards cannot accurately reproduce the expected behavior, and thus indicate that alternative complementary calculation procedures are required. A simple methodology to estimate the difference between numerical and standard predictions is here proposed allowing the calculation of an adaptation term that makes both approaches converge. This term was found to be solution-dependent, and thus should be evaluated for each structure.

Practice-driven restructuring of the pharmacy curricula: focus on advanced services

Poster presented at the 5th PCNE Working Symposium 2016: “Work in Progress – Progress in Work”, 19-20 February 2016, Hillerød, Denmark.

A digest of laws and decisions : ecclesiastical and civil relating to the constitution, practice, and affairs of the church of Scotland, with explanatory notes and forms of procedure /

Includes index.

The organizations transcomplejas from the perspective of the nursing

El propósito del artículo es el análisis de las organizaciones transcomplejas desde la perspectiva de la Enfermería, en el contexto del paradigma de la complejidad. Todos los cuestionamientos realizados a las ciencias de la modernidad fueron necesarios para dar al mundo desarrollos de enorme significación, como es el paradigma de la complejidad donde se rescata la idea de la totalidad universal y con ella el holismo dentro de las organizaciones, si se consideran estas como organismos vivo; y este aplicado al campo de la salud donde los profesionales del cuidado de la salud entre ellos la enfermería ha aceptado la perspectiva de salud holística como, más que la ausencia de enfermedad, como la realización individual. La humanidad vive una crisis de fragmentación que conduce a sentimientos y emociones destructivas de la armonía y del arte de vivir en equilibrio. La perspectiva holistica se preocupa de promover la salud mediante la prevención y se aplica a las personas que se recuperan de una enfermedad y desean aprender a prevenir su repetición y mejorar su estatus de salud futura. Así, la enfermería estudia la totalidad o la salud de los humanos, reconociendo que los humanos están en continua interacción con su medio ambiente