Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Progressive dysgraphia in a case of posterior cortical atrophy

Dysgraphia (agraphia) is a common feature of posterior cortical atrophy (PCA). However, detailed analyses of these spelling and writing impairments are infrequently conducted. LM is a 59-year-old woman with dysgraphia associated with PCA. She presented with a two-year history of decline in her writing and dressmaking skills. A 3D T1-weighted MRI scan confirmed selective bi-parietal atrophy, with relative sparing of the hippocampi and other cortical regions. Analyses of LM's preserved and impaired spelling abilities indicated mild physical letter distortions and a significant spelling deficit characterised by letter substitutions, insertions, omissions, and transpositions that was systematically sensitive to word length while insensitive to real word versus nonword category, word frequency, regularity, imagery, grammatical class and ambiguity. Our findings suggest a primary graphemic buffer disorder underlies LM's spelling errors, possibly originating from disruption to the operation of a fronto-parietal network implicated in verbal working memory.

A 3D numerical study of the collateral capacity of the circle of Willis with anatomical variation in the posterior circulation

Background The Circle of Willis (CoW) is the most important collateral pathway of the cerebral artery. The present study aims to investigate the collateral capacity of CoW with anatomical variation when unilateral internalcarotid artery (ICA) is occluded. Methods Basing on MRI data, we have reconstructed eight 3D models with variations in the posterior circulation of the CoW and set four different degrees of stenosis in the right ICA, namely 24%, 43%, 64% and 79%, respectively. Finally, a total of 40 models are performed with computational fluid dynamics simulations. All of the simulations share the same boundary condition with static pressure and the volume flow rate (VFR) are obtained to evaluate their collateral capacity. Results As for the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), the transitional-type model possesses the best collateral capacity. But for the posterior cerebral artery (PCA), unilateral stenosis of ICA has the weakest influence on the unilateral posterior communicating artery (PCoA) absent model. We also find that the full fetal-type posterior circle of Willis is an utmost dangerous variation which must be paid more attention. Conclusion The results demonstrate that different models have different collateral capacities in coping stenosis of unilateral ICA and these differences can be reflected by different outlets. The study could be used as a reference for neurosurgeon in choosing the best treatment strategy.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Dislocation after total hip replacement: there is no such thing as a safe zone for socket placement with the posterior approach

Introduction Malorientation of the socket contributes to instability after hip arthroplasty but the optimal orientation of the cup in relation to the pelvis has not been unequivocally described. Large radiological studies are few and problems occur with film standardisation, measurement methodology used and alternative definitions of describing acetabular orientation. Methods A cohort of 1,578 patients from a single institution is studied where all patient data was collected prospectively. Risk factors for patients undergoing surgery are analysed. Radiological data was compared between a series of non-dislocating hips and dislocating cases matched 2:1 by operation type, age and diagnosis. Results The overall dislocation rate for all 1,578 cases was 3.23% but the rate varied according to the type of surgery performed. The rate in uncomplicated primary cases was 2.4% which increased to 9.3% for second stage implantation for a two stage procedure for infection. There was no significant difference in the variability of the dislocating and non-dislocating groups for either inclination (p = 0.393) or anteversion (p = 0.661). Conclusions A “safe zone” for socket orientation to avoid dislocation could not be defined. The cause of dislocation is multifactorial, re-establishing the anatomic centre of rotation, balancing soft tissues and avoidance of impingement around the hip are important considerations.

Thickness metrics in posterior segment optical coherence tomography

To develop and compare a set of metrics for calculating tissue thickness in wide-field OCT data.

Eficiencia productiva y económica de la finca cafetalera Verapaz, posterior a los efectos de la roya Quilalí, Nueva Segovia, 2014

Las principales actividades económicas del municipio de Quilalí son la agricultura, ganadería y comercio, el rubro de café es la actividad más predominante en la economía del municipio. El presente estudio se realizó con el fin de analizar la eficiencia productiva y económica de la finca Verapaz posterior a la afectación de la roya. Para llevar a cabo la investigación se utilizó un instrumento (encuesta base) y la técnica de la observación para la recolección de información primaria. En el análisis y resultados se encontró que la finca tiene una área productiva de café de 4.93 hectáreas con una producción de 10.5 toneladas, con un rendimiento de 2.12 t/ha. En relación a los costos de producción, la finca invirtió 8103.95 dólares y un costo medio para producir una tonelada de café oro de 771.80 dólares. En el año 2014 la finca generó pérdidas de -134.45 dólares. La estimación de pérdidas físicas fueron de 64.74 toneladas y las pérdidas monetarias alcanzaron los 49,137.66 dólares, correspondientes al área afectada por la roya 30.54 hectáreas. Se concluye que la Finca Verapaz no tiene eficiencia productiva debido a que la productividad del trabajo presenta resultados ineficientes de 0.01 toneladas por hombre día trabajado y económicamente no es rentable en el año en estudio.

Copia de dos informes en los que se informa de la salida de la prisión de Dueñas de los sacerdotes vascos presos, y de su posterior traslado a la de Carmona.

Fecha: 3-1-1940 (>1970 copia) / Unidad de instalación: Carpeta 45 - Expediente 2-15 / Nº de pág.: 11 (mecanografiadas)

Desarrollo de técnicas de fresado en cinco ejes de engranajes espiro cónicos y posterior metrología.

[ES]El presente Trabajo Fin de Grado tiene como objetivo contribuir al desarrollo de diferentes técnicas de fresado de engranajes espiro cónicos mediante fresadoras genéricas de cinco ejes. El proyecto estará dividido en varias partes que incluirán: el diseño de la geometría de las piezas a mecanizar, el propio proceso de manufactura y su posterior metrología. Durante el transcurso del curso 2014-2015 se documentará y participará activamente en el desarrollo de dichas técnicas de fresado. Proceso que será dirigido por Álvaro Álvarez, doctorando del departamento de Mecánica de la Escuela Superior de Ingeniería de Bilbao. El objetivo principal es llegar a ser capaz de obtener piezas de gran complejidad en su diseño y proceso de fabricación, dentro de los márgenes de calidad exigidos por las normas pertinentes y mediante un proceso novedoso y competitivo a nivel internacional.