Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Progressive dysgraphia in a case of posterior cortical atrophy

Dysgraphia (agraphia) is a common feature of posterior cortical atrophy (PCA). However, detailed analyses of these spelling and writing impairments are infrequently conducted. LM is a 59-year-old woman with dysgraphia associated with PCA. She presented with a two-year history of decline in her writing and dressmaking skills. A 3D T1-weighted MRI scan confirmed selective bi-parietal atrophy, with relative sparing of the hippocampi and other cortical regions. Analyses of LM's preserved and impaired spelling abilities indicated mild physical letter distortions and a significant spelling deficit characterised by letter substitutions, insertions, omissions, and transpositions that was systematically sensitive to word length while insensitive to real word versus nonword category, word frequency, regularity, imagery, grammatical class and ambiguity. Our findings suggest a primary graphemic buffer disorder underlies LM's spelling errors, possibly originating from disruption to the operation of a fronto-parietal network implicated in verbal working memory.

Prevalence of retinopathy among adults with self-reported diabetes mellitus: the Sri Lanka diabetes and Cardiovascular Study

Background: At present there are no large scale nationally-representative studies from Sri Lanka on the prevalence and associations of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR). The present study aims to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for DR in a community-based nationally-representative sample of adults with self-reported diabetes mellitus from Sri Lanka. Methods: A cross-sectional community-based national study among 5,000 adults (≥18 years) was conducted in Sri Lanka, using a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling technique. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Ophthalmological evaluation of patients with ‘known’ diabetes (previously diagnosed at a government hospital or by a registered medical practitioner) was done using indirect ophthalmoscopy. A binary-logistic regression analysis was performed with ‘presence of DR’ as the dichotomous dependent variable and other independent covariates. Results: Crude prevalence of diabetes was 12.0%(n=536),of which 344 were patients with ‘known’ diabetes.Mean age was 56.4 ± 10.9 years and 37.3% were males. Prevalence of any degree of DR was 27.4% (Males-30.5%, Females-25.6%; p = 0.41). In patients with DR, majority had NPDR (93.4%), while 5.3% had maculopathy. Patients with DR had a significantly longer duration of diabetes than those without. In the binary-logistic regression analysis in all adults duration of diabetes (OR:1.07), current smoking (OR:1.67) and peripheral neuropathy (OR:1.72)all were significantly associated with DR. Conclusions: Nearly 1/3rd of Sri Lankan adults with self-reported diabetes are having retinopathy. DR was associated with diabetes duration, cigarette smoking and peripheral neuropathy. However, further prospective follow up studies are required to establish causality for identified risk factors

Multifocal electroretinogram responses in Nepalese diabetic patients without retinopathy

Purpose To determine neuroretinal function with multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) in diabetic subjects without retinopathy. Methods Multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) was performed in 18 eyes of 18 diabetic subjects without retinopathy and 17 eyes of 17 age and gender-matched healthy control participants. Among 18 diabetic subjects, two had type 1 and 16 had type 2 diabetes. MfERG responses were averaged by the retinal areas of six concentric rings and four quadrants, and 103 retinal locations; N1–P1 amplitude and P1-implicit time were analysed. Results Average mfERG N1–P1 amplitude (in nv/deg2) of 103 retinal locations was 56.3 ± 17.2 (mean ± SD) in type 1 diabetic subjects, 47.2 ± 9.3 in type 2 diabetic subjects and 71.5 ± 12.7 in controls. Average P1-implicit time (in ms) was 43.0 ± 1.3 in type 1 diabetic subjects, 43.9 ± 2.3 in type 2 diabetic subjects and 41.9 ± 2.1 in controls. There was significant reduction in average N1–P1 amplitude and delay in P1-implicit time in type 2 diabetic subjects in comparison to controls. mfERG amplitude did not show any significant correlation with diabetes duration and blood sugar level. However, implicit time showed a positive correlation with diabetes duration in type 2 diabetic subjects with diabetes duration ≥5 years. Conclusions This is the first study in a Nepalese population with diabetes using multifocal electroretinography. We present novel findings that mfERG N1–P1 amplitude is markedly reduced along with delay in P1-implicit time in type 2 diabetic subjects without retinopathy. These findings indicate that there might be significant dysfunction of inner retina before the development of diabetic retinopathy in the study population, which have higher prevalence of diabetes than the global estimate and uncontrolled blood sugar level.

Genome-wide association study for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy reveals association with genetic variation near the GRB2 gene

Aims/hypothesis Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus and can lead to blindness. A genetic component, in addition to traditional risk factors, has been well described although strong genetic factors have not yet been identified. Here, we aimed to identify novel genetic risk factors for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy using a genome-wide association study. Methods Retinopathy was assessed in white Australians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Genome-wide association analysis was conducted for comparison of cases of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (n = 336) with diabetic controls with no retinopathy (n = 508). Top ranking single nucleotide polymorphisms were typed in a type 2 diabetes replication cohort, a type 1 diabetes cohort and an Indian type 2 cohort. A mouse model of proliferative retinopathy was used to assess differential expression of the nearby candidate gene GRB2 by immunohistochemistry and quantitative western blot. Results The top ranked variant was rs3805931 with p = 2.66 × 10−7, but no association was found in the replication cohort. Only rs9896052 (p = 6.55 × 10−5) was associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in both the type 2 (p = 0.035) and the type 1 (p = 0.041) replication cohorts, as well as in the Indian cohort (p = 0.016). The study-wide meta-analysis reached genome-wide significance (p = 4.15 × 10−8). The GRB2 gene is located downstream of this variant and a mouse model of retinopathy showed increased GRB2 expression in the retina. Conclusions/interpretation Genetic variation near GRB2 on chromosome 17q25.1 is associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy. Several genes in this region are promising candidates and in particular GRB2 is upregulated during retinal stress and neovascularisation.

A 3D numerical study of the collateral capacity of the circle of Willis with anatomical variation in the posterior circulation

Background The Circle of Willis (CoW) is the most important collateral pathway of the cerebral artery. The present study aims to investigate the collateral capacity of CoW with anatomical variation when unilateral internalcarotid artery (ICA) is occluded. Methods Basing on MRI data, we have reconstructed eight 3D models with variations in the posterior circulation of the CoW and set four different degrees of stenosis in the right ICA, namely 24%, 43%, 64% and 79%, respectively. Finally, a total of 40 models are performed with computational fluid dynamics simulations. All of the simulations share the same boundary condition with static pressure and the volume flow rate (VFR) are obtained to evaluate their collateral capacity. Results As for the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), the transitional-type model possesses the best collateral capacity. But for the posterior cerebral artery (PCA), unilateral stenosis of ICA has the weakest influence on the unilateral posterior communicating artery (PCoA) absent model. We also find that the full fetal-type posterior circle of Willis is an utmost dangerous variation which must be paid more attention. Conclusion The results demonstrate that different models have different collateral capacities in coping stenosis of unilateral ICA and these differences can be reflected by different outlets. The study could be used as a reference for neurosurgeon in choosing the best treatment strategy.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Retinal photography screening programs to prevent vision loss from diabetic retinopathy in rural and urban Australia: A review

Purpose This review assessed the effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening programs, using retinal photography in Australian urban and rural settings, and considered implications for public health strategy and policy. Methods An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and Embase for studies published between 1 January 1996 and the 30 June 2013 was undertaken. Key search terms were “diabetic retinopathy,” “screening,” “retinal photography” and “Australia.” Results Twelve peer-reviewed publications were identified. The 14 DR screening programs identified from the 12 publications were successfully undertaken in urban, rural and remote communities across Australia. Locations included a pathology collection center, and Indigenous primary health care and Aboriginal community controlled organizations. Each intervention using retinal photography was highly effective at increasing the number of people who underwent screening for DR. The review identified that prior to commencement of the screening programs a median of 48% (range 16–85%) of those screened had not undergone a retinal examination within the recommended time frame (every year for Indigenous people and every 2 years for non-Indigenous people in Australia). A median of 16% (range 0–45%) of study participants had evidence of DR. Conclusions This review has shown there have been many pilot and demonstration projects in rural and urban Australia that confirm the effectiveness of retinal photography-based screening for DR

Corneal confocal microscopy detects neuropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes without retinopathy or microalbuminuria

Objective Corneal innervation is increasingly used as a surrogate marker of human diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) however its temporal relationship with the other microvascular complications of diabetes is not fully established. In this cross-sectional, observational study we aimed to assess whether neuropathy occurred in patients with type 1 diabetes, without retinopathy or microalbuminuria. Materials and Methods All participants underwent detailed assessment of peripheral neuropathy [neuropathy disability score (NDS), vibration perception threshold (VPT), peroneal motor nerve conduction velocity (PMNCV), sural sensory nerve conduction velocity (SSNCV) and in vivo corneal confocal microscopy (IVCCM)], retinopathy (digital fundus photography) and albuminuria status [albumin: creatinine ratio (ACR)]. Results 53 patients with Type 1 diabetes with (n=37) and without retinopathy (n=16) were compared to control subjects (n=27). SSNCV, corneal nerve fibre (CNFD) and branch (CNBD) density and length (CNFL) were reduced significantly (p<0.001) in diabetic patients without retinopathy compared to control subjects. Furthermore, CNFD, CNBD and CNFL were also significantly (p<0.001) reduced in diabetic patients without microalbuminuria (n=39), compared to control subjects. Greater neuropathic severity was associated with established retinopathy and microalbuminuria. Conclusions IVCCM detects early small fibre damage in the absence of retinopathy or microalbuminuria in patients with Type 1 diabetes.

Dislocation after total hip replacement: there is no such thing as a safe zone for socket placement with the posterior approach

Introduction Malorientation of the socket contributes to instability after hip arthroplasty but the optimal orientation of the cup in relation to the pelvis has not been unequivocally described. Large radiological studies are few and problems occur with film standardisation, measurement methodology used and alternative definitions of describing acetabular orientation. Methods A cohort of 1,578 patients from a single institution is studied where all patient data was collected prospectively. Risk factors for patients undergoing surgery are analysed. Radiological data was compared between a series of non-dislocating hips and dislocating cases matched 2:1 by operation type, age and diagnosis. Results The overall dislocation rate for all 1,578 cases was 3.23% but the rate varied according to the type of surgery performed. The rate in uncomplicated primary cases was 2.4% which increased to 9.3% for second stage implantation for a two stage procedure for infection. There was no significant difference in the variability of the dislocating and non-dislocating groups for either inclination (p = 0.393) or anteversion (p = 0.661). Conclusions A “safe zone” for socket orientation to avoid dislocation could not be defined. The cause of dislocation is multifactorial, re-establishing the anatomic centre of rotation, balancing soft tissues and avoidance of impingement around the hip are important considerations.

Thickness metrics in posterior segment optical coherence tomography

To develop and compare a set of metrics for calculating tissue thickness in wide-field OCT data.