Why is economics not a complex systems science?

The article argues that economics will have to become a complex systems science before economists can comfortably incorporate institutionalist and evolutionary economics into mainstream theory. The article compares the complex adaptive system of John Foster with that of standard economic theory and illustrates the difference through an examination of familiar production function. The place of neoclassical, Keynesian economics in complex systems is considered. The article concludes that convincing, multiple models have been made possible by the increase in widely available computing power available.

The Post-Growth Project:how the end of economic growth could bring a fairer and happier society

This book challenges the assumption that it is bad news when the economy doesn’t grow. For decades, it has been widely recognized that there are ecological limits to continuing economic growth and that different ways of living, working and organizing our economies are urgently required. This urgency has increased since the financial crash of 2007–2008, but mainstream economists and politicians are unable to think differently. The authors of this book demonstrate why our economic system demands ecologically unsustainable growth and the pursuit of more ‘stuff’. They believe that what matters is quality, not quantity – a better life based on having fewer material possessions, less production and less work. Such a way of life will emphasize well‑being, community, security and ‘conviviality’. That is, more real wealth. The book will therefore appeal to everyone curious as to how a new post-growth economics can be conceived and enacted. It will be of particular interest to policy makers, politicians, businesspeople, trade unionists, academics, students, journalists and a wide range of people working in the not-for-profit sector. All of the contributors are leading thinkers on green issues and members of the new think-tank Green House.

Greece, global fault-lines and the disintegrative logics of Germany’s primacy in Europe

Post-Keynesian, heterodox and Marxist political economists have rightly argued that the eurozone crisis is not a fiscal crisis but a balance of payments crisis, mainly caused by the pivotal position of Germany in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and its neo-mercantilist model of growth (low wage, low inflation and export-led). This view, however, sees the split between core and periphery in the European Union as something created with the introduction of the EMU in 1999. This chapter contends that this is not the case. By putting forth a global fault-lines historical perspective and focusing on the case of Greece, it is argued that the problem is not the introduction of the EMU but the geopolitical and macroeconomic asymmetries between core and periphery in Europe since the inception of what vaguely – and even inaccurately – can be defined as ‘European modernity’. Global fault-lines offer a macro-historical and macroeconomic understanding of crises seen as structural events generated by the evolving and contradictory tendencies of capitalism as a world system. It is not just a political economy perspective but a perspective that encompasses many instances of the social, especially geopolitical and geocultural structures.

A economia de John Maynard Keynes

O objectivo principal desta tese é analisar a evolução das ideias e proposições teóricas da obra de John Maynard Keynes, enfatizando as suas propostas de politica económica com influência na ordem económica internacional. A hipótese primordial deste trabalho, numa abordagem pós-Keynesiana, é a defesa da mudança do pensamento económico de Keynes, de uma visão marshalliana compatível com o capitalismo do laissez-faire, para uma análise teórica inovadora dos problemas do capitalismo pós-grande depressão, nos anos 1930; The Economics of John Maynard Keynes ABSTRACT: The main objective of this article is to analyze the evolution of the ideas and theoretical propositions of the of the work of John Maynard Keynes. The underlying hypothesis of this work, in a post Keynesian approach, is the defence of change of economic thought of Keynes, a vision marshallian compatible with laissez-faire capitalism, for an innovative theoretical analysis of the problems of capitalism pós-great depression, in the years 1930.

Post-growth policy instruments

This paper proposes a framework to evaluate post-growth policy instruments which gauges their capacity to lessen the pressure for growth emanating from the labour market and the state’s contradictory legitimisation and accumulation imperatives, whilst increasing societal well-being and reducing the biophysical throughput of the economy. It is argued that the most effective policies to do this are measures to reduce average working hours, expand low productivity sectors and reduce inequality. Specific policies instruments include public sector expansion and the promotion of cooperatives, the introduction of citizens’ basic income schemes, environmental tax reform, the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, reforms to monetary policy, financial regulatory reform and the introduction of alternative measures of progress to gross domestic product.

La Hipótesis de Equivalencia Ricardiana: Una Aproximación Empírica

[ES] Este trabajo aporta un análisis econométrico sencillo de la equivalencia ricardiana para los Estados Unidos de América durante el periodo 1929-2013. Se estima una función de consumo para los individuos del país para a continuación contrastar tres diferentes especificaciones del consumo basadas en la teoría keynesiana y en la equivalencia ricardiana. Se obtiene que todas las especificaciones se rechazan, lo que lleva a sugerir que es un término medio entre las dos teorías lo que mejor refleja el efecto que tiene la deuda pública sobre el consumo en los Estados Unidos. Este trabajo también pretende hacer una exposición sencilla de las bases de la equivalencia ricardiana.

Teorias Keynesianas sobre bancos e crédito: Tobin, Stiglitz e os pós-keynesianos

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os modelos da firma bancária e crédito a partir de uma visão keynesiana. Inicialmente são apresentadas as proposições teóricas de Keynes e as derivações dessa a partir dos velhos e novos keynesianos. Na 2 parte os modelos representativos da firma bancária dessas escolas são descritos através de Tobin e Stiglitz, sendo neste último caso introduzido o conceito de assimetria de informação. No 3 capítulo é desenvolvida a abordagem pós-keynesiana de endogeneidade da oferta de moeda, sendo apresentados os modelos horizontalista de Moore, bem como as críticas da visão estruturalista, além do modelo de estratégia bancária de Alves, Dymski e Paula, desenvolvido a partir da hipótese de fragilidade financeira de Minsky. No capítulo 4 efetua-se uma discussão, feita por autores pós-keynesianos, sobre a possibilidade de compatibilizar em alguma medida o modelo de Tobin e o modelo de racionamento de crédito com a concepção pós-keynesiana de banco e crédito.

‘Towards a Concrete Utopian Model of Green Political Economy’

Much of the thinking about the appropriate ‘political economy’ to underpin sustainable development has been either utopian (as in some ‘green’ political views) or ‘business as usual’ approaches. This article suggests that ‘ecological modernisation’ is the dominant conceptualisation of ‘sustainable development’ within the UK and other ‘developed’ Northern polities and most corporate/business interests, and illustrates this by looking at some key ‘sustainable development’ policy documents from the UK Government. While critical of the reformist ‘policy telos’ of ecological modernisation, supporters of a more radical version of sustainable development need to also be aware of the strategic opportunities of this policy discourse. In particular, the article suggests that the discourse of ‘economic security’, which can be attached to a radicalised notion of ecological modernisation, ought to be used as a way of articulating a radical, robust and principled understanding of sustainable development, which offers a normatively compelling and policy-relevant path to outlining aspects of a ‘green political economy’ to underpin sustainable development.

Ciencias de la complejidad: estado actual

Los aportes teóricos y aplicados de la complejidad en economía han tomado tantas direcciones y han sido tan frenéticos en las últimas décadas, que no existe un trabajo reciente, hasta donde conocemos, que los compile y los analice de forma integrada. El objetivo de este proyecto, por tanto, es desarrollar un estado situacional de las diferentes aplicaciones conceptuales, teóricas, metodológicas y tecnológicas de las ciencias de la complejidad en la economía. Asimismo, se pretende analizar las tendencias recientes en el estudio de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y los horizontes que las ciencias de la complejidad ofrecen de cara al abordaje de los fenómenos económicos del mundo globalizado contemporáneo.

Autonomia dos centros de pós-graduação em economia: uma abordagem institucional e de história oral

Este trabalho pretende analisar os principais centros de pós-graduação e de pesquisa em economia localizados em São Paulo e no Rio de Janeiro, a partir do levantamento de documentos, programas, regulamentos e publicações de seus principais expoentes. Também pretendemos utilizar depoimentos desses expoentes para entender como os processos decisórios foram analisados de "dentro" da instituição. A história da vida do entrevistado permite que entremos no mundo das emoções, nos limites da racionalidade do ator histórico. Ao quebrarmos o esquematismo simplista, podemos desvendar as relações entre o indivíduo e a rede histórica. A memória, com suas falhas, distorções e inversões, torna-se um elemento de análise para explicar o presente, a partir da compreensão do passado sob a ótica de quem vivenciou os fatos.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

A proposta do estado empregador de ultima instância e o experimentalismo democrático: uma reflexão teórica sobre a compatibilidade desses dois programas

This paper aims to make a theoretical reflection on the theoretical compatibility between the program State Employer of Last Resort (ELR) and the Democratic experimentalism (ED). The ED arises in political thought as an alternative to neo-liberal and social democratic programs in order to rescue the discussion about the institutional organization of society and the market economy. About the involuntary unemployment, it proposes tax changes incidents on payroll and proposes work fronts to the most vulnerable or poorly trained. The hypothesis of this paper is that this approach is compatible with the ELR program, the post- Keynesian line. The ELR is presented as transgression of the mainstream of economic thought by proposing that the State acts as guarantor of employment, working as a stabilizing anchor for the economy. On the edge, the ELR proposes eliminate completely involuntary unemployment. The implementation of the ELR, however, requires the construction of institutions that aim to remake the market economy, as well as deepen and energize politics and democracy, goals that are part of the ED program. Thus, the ED would, in theory, an environment conducive to innovative policies guarantors of training and occupation of the individual, essential for their emancipation institutional environment. In Brazil, which has serious infrastructure problems and qualification of manpower, such a program has enormous potential benefit. However when transposed to the Northeast of Brazil through the Plan for the region based on the principles of the ED and the hypothetical coupling to the ELR could not confirm or reject the hypothesis sub-compatibility of these two theoretical frameworks. The findings point to a partial convergence between these two programs

Perfil do crédito à pessoa jurídica no Brasil entre 1994 e 2007

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Evolução recente dos mercados de crédito e de títulos no Brasil e sua atuação no financiamento dos macro-setores indústria, comércio e serviços (1996-2007): uma interpretação pós-keynesiana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)