Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Demographic effects of thatch harvest and implications for sustainable use of irapai palm (Lepidocaryum tenue, Mart.), by riverine communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Lepidocaryum tenue Mart. (Arecaceae) is a small, understory palm of terra firme forests of the western and central Amazon basin. Known as irapai, it is used for roof thatch by Amazonian peoples who collect its leaves from the wild and generate income from its fronds and articles fabricated from them. Increasing demand has caused local concern that populations are declining. Cultivation attempts have been unsuccessful. The purpose of this study was to investigate market conditions and quantify population dynamics and demographic responses of harvested and unharvested irapai growing near Iquitos, Peru. ^ Ethnobotanical research included participant surveys to determine movement of thatch tiles, called crisnejas, through Moronacocha Port. I also conducted a seed germination trial, and for four years studied five populations growing in communities with similar topography and soils but different land tenure and management strategies. Stage, survival, leaf production, and reproductive transitions were used to calculate ramet demographic rates and develop population projection matrices. ^ Weavers made an average of 20–30 crisnejas per day (90–130 leaves each), and earned US$0.09 to 0.70 each (US$1.80 to 21.00 per day). Average crisnejas per month sold per vendor was 2,955 with a profit range of US$0.05 to 0.32 per crisneja. Wholesalers worked with capital outlay from US$100 to 400, and an estimated ten to twenty vendors could be found at a given time. Consumers paid between US$0.23 to 1.20 per crisneja. Although differences in demographic rates by location existed, most were not significant enough to attribute to management. ^ After 60 months, mean seed germination rate was 19.5% in all media (37.9% in peat). Seedling survival was less than two percent after twelve months. Annual palm mortality was three percent, and occurred disproportionately in small (<50 cm) palms. Small palms grew more in height. Unharvested palms grew less than harvested palms. Large palms (≥50 cm) produced more leaves, were more likely to reproduce, and collectors harvested them more frequently. Reproductive potentials (sexual and asexual) were low. Population growth rates were greater than or not significantly different from 1.0, indicating populations maintained or increased in size. Current levels of irapai harvest appear sustainable. DNA analysis of stems and recruits is recommended to understand population composition and stage-specific asexual fecundity. ^

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

América Latina: proyecciones de población urbana-rural, 1970-2025 = Latin America: projection of the urban-rural population, 1970-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

América Latina: proyecciones de población urbana y rural, 1970-2025 = Latin America: projection of the urban and rural population, 1970-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

Patient doses in ct, dental cone beam ct and projection radiography in Finland, with emphasis on paediatric patients

Diagnostic radiology represents the largest man-made contribution to population radiation doses in Europe. To be able to keep the diagnostic benefit versus radiation risk ratio as high as possible, it is important to understand the quantitative relationship between the patient radiation dose and the various factors which affect the dose, such as the scan parameters, scan mode, and patient size. Paediatric patients have a higher probability for late radiation effects, since longer life expectancy is combined with the higher radiation sensitivity of the developing organs. The experience with particular paediatric examinations may be very limited and paediatric acquisition protocols may not be optimised. The purpose of this thesis was to enhance and compare different dosimetric protocols, to promote the establishment of the paediatric diagnostic reference levels (DRLs), and to provide new data on patient doses for optimisation purposes in computed tomography (with new applications for dental imaging) and in paediatric radiography. Large variations in radiation exposure in paediatric skull, sinus, chest, pelvic and abdominal radiography examinations were discovered in patient dose surveys. There were variations between different hospitals and examination rooms, between different sized patients, and between imaging techniques; emphasising the need for harmonisation of the examination protocols. For computed tomography, a correction coefficient, which takes individual patient size into account in patient dosimetry, was created. The presented patient size correction method can be used for both adult and paediatric purposes. Dental cone beam CT scanners provided adequate image quality for dentomaxillofacial examinations while delivering considerably smaller effective doses to patient compared to the multi slice CT. However, large dose differences between cone beam CT scanners were not explained by differences in image quality, which indicated the lack of optimisation. For paediatric radiography, a graphical method was created for setting the diagnostic reference levels in chest examinations, and the DRLs were given as a function of patient projection thickness. Paediatric DRLs were also given for sinus radiography. The detailed information about the patient data, exposure parameters and procedures provided tools for reducing the patient doses in paediatric radiography. The mean tissue doses presented for paediatric radiography enabled future risk assessments to be done. The calculated effective doses can be used for comparing different diagnostic procedures, as well as for comparing the use of similar technologies and procedures in different hospitals and countries.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

Comparaisons de projections des niveaux d'incapacité de la population canadienne de 65 ans et plus en 2031

Le vieillissement de la population canadienne prévisible dans les prochaines années entrainera d’importants changements au point de vue social. L’un d’eux est l’augmentation fulgurante du nombre d’aînés en état d’incapacité. Utilisant le modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, cette recherche compare deux projections, ayant des méthodologies différentes, du nombre d’individus en incapacité de 65 ans et plus vivant en ménage privé en 2031. La première méthode utilise le module d’incapacité de LifePaths pour générer les individus en incapacité tandis que la seconde méthode utilise plutôt une régression logistique ordonnée pour les obtenir. Les projections du nombre d’individus en état d’incapacité des deux méthodes nous permettent une comparaison entre ces résultats. Suite à l’élaboration de tableaux et de graphiques permettant de tracer un portait de la situation, cette recherche essaie de démystifier les sources possibles à l’origine de ces différences. Les résultats montrent d’importantes différences entre les projections, spécifiquement pour les individus en état d’incapacité sévère. De plus, lorsqu’on s’intéresse aux variables d’intérêts, on remarque que les différences de projections d’effectifs sont importantes chez les hommes et les gens mariés. Par contre, lorsque les proportions sont analysées, c’est plutôt le groupe d’âges 80 ans et plus ainsi que les projections pour la province du Québec qui créent problème. Ces différences sont attribuables aux caractéristiques d’un modèle de microsimulation, aux populations de départ ainsi qu’aux paramètres définis. Les résultats démontrés dans cette recherche mettent en garde sur les travaux étudiant le nombre d’individus en incapacité dans le futur. Nos deux méthodes ayant des résultats différents, nous ne pouvons pas conclure avec certitude quelle sera la situation dans le futur.

Projection de la mortalité aux âges avancées au Canada : comparaison de trois modèles

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

Thoracic target volume delineation using various maximum-intensity projection computed tomography image sets for stereotactic body radiation therapy

The motion of lung tumors during respiration makes the accurate delivery of radiation therapy to the thorax difficult because it increases the uncertainty of target position. The adoption of four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) has allowed us to determine how a tumor moves with respiration for each individual patient. Using information acquired during a 4D-CT scan, we can define the target, visualize motion, and calculate dose during the planning phase of the radiotherapy process. One image data set that can be created from the 4D-CT acquisition is the maximum-intensity projection (MIP). The MIP can be used as a starting point to define the volume that encompasses the motion envelope of the moving gross target volume (GTV). Because of the close relationship that exists between the MIP and the final target volume, we investigated four MIP data sets created with different methodologies (3 using various 4D-CT sorting implementations, and one using all available cine CT images) to compare target delineation. It has been observed that changing the 4D-CT sorting method will lead to the selection of a different collection of images; however, the clinical implications of changing the constituent images on the resultant MIP data set are not clear. There has not been a comprehensive study that compares target delineation based on different 4D-CT sorting methodologies in a patient population. We selected a collection of patients who had previously undergone thoracic 4D-CT scans at our institution, and who had lung tumors that moved at least 1 cm. We then generated the four MIP data sets and automatically contoured the target volumes. In doing so, we identified cases in which the MIP generated from a 4D-CT sorting process under-represented the motion envelope of the target volume by more than 10% than when measured on the MIP generated from all of the cine CT images. The 4D-CT methods suffered from duplicate image selection and might not choose maximum extent images. Based on our results, we suggest utilization of a MIP generated from the full cine CT data set to ensure a representative inclusive tumor extent, and to avoid geometric miss.

A survey of projection activities of selected planning agencies in the State of Illinois : a report to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Division of Air Pollution Control /

"June 1975."

The development of population projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 2012-2027

It is not possible to trace the early demographic development of the Turks and Caicos Islands due to lack of data, but what is evident from the limited historical data is that population developments beginning in 1921 and up to 1970 followed the same path as other Caribbean Islands. The Turks and Caicos Islands have experienced unprecedented population growth over the last twenty years due largely to the immigration of people from neighbouring countries seeking employment created by the development of tourism. Such rapid population changes for the small island group present many social, economic, environmental and political challenges. Population projections are essential so that policymakers and decision makers can make informed judgements about future strategies, policies and programmes.