Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Strategies in identifying individuals in a segregant population of common bean and implications of genotype x environment interaction in the success of selection

The objective of this study was to compare the BLUP selection method with different selection strategies in F-2:4 and assess the efficiency of this method on the early choice of the best common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) lines. Fifty-one F-2:4 progenies were produced from a cross between the CVIII8511 x RP-26 lines. A randomized block design was used with 20 replications and one-plant field plots. Character data on plant architecture and grain yield were obtained and then the sum of the standardized variables was estimated for simultaneous selection of both traits. Analysis was carried out by mixed models (BLUP) and the least squares method to compare different selection strategies, like mass selection, stratified mass selection and between and within progeny selection. The progenies selected by BLUP were assessed in advanced generations, always selecting the greatest and smallest sum of the standardized variables. Analyses by the least squares method and BLUP procedure ranked the progenies in the same way. The coincidence of the individuals identified by BLUP and between and within progeny selection was high and of the greatest magnitude when BLUP was compared with mass selection. Although BLUP is the best estimator of genotypic value, its efficiency in the response to long term selection is not different from any of the other methods, because it is also unable to predict the future effect of the progenies x environments interaction. It was inferred that selection success will always depend on the most accurate possible progeny assessment and using alternatives to reduce the progenies x environments interaction effect.

Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.

A pure population of lung alveolar epithelial type II cells derived from human embryonic stem cells.

Alveolar epithelial type II (ATII) cells are small, cuboidal cells that constitute approximately 60% of the pulmonary alveolar epithelium. These cells are crucial for repair of the injured alveolus by differentiating into alveolar epithelial type I cells. ATII cells derived from human ES (hES) cells are a promising source of cells that could be used therapeutically to treat distal lung diseases. We have developed a reliable transfection and culture procedure, which facilitates, via genetic selection, the differentiation of hES cells into an essentially pure (>99%) population of ATII cells (hES-ATII). Purity, as well as biological features and morphological characteristics of normal ATII cells, was demonstrated for the hES-ATII cells, including lamellar body formation, expression of surfactant proteins A, B, and C, alpha-1-antitrypsin, and the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance receptor, as well as the synthesis and secretion of complement proteins C3 and C5. Collectively, these data document the successful generation of a pure population of ATII cells derived from hES cells, providing a practical source of ATII cells to explore in disease models their potential in the regeneration and repair of the injured alveolus and in the therapeutic treatment of genetic diseases affecting the lung.

Warm Breze from the Starboard Bow: a new Population of neutral Helium in the Heliosphere

We investigate the signals from neutral helium atoms observed in situ from Earth orbit in 2010 by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). The full helium signal observed during the 2010 observation season can be explained as a superposition of pristine neutral interstellar He gas and an additional population of neutral helium that we call the Warm Breeze. The Warm Breeze is approximately 2 times slower and 2.5 times warmer than the primary interstellar He population, and its density in front of the heliosphere is ~7% that of the neutral interstellar helium. The inflow direction of the Warm Breeze differs by ~19° from the inflow direction of interstellar gas. The Warm Breeze seems to be a long-term, perhaps permanent feature of the heliospheric environment. It has not been detected earlier because it is strongly ionized inside the heliosphere. This effect brings it below the threshold of detection via pickup ion and heliospheric backscatter glow observations, as well as by the direct sampling of GAS/Ulysses. We discuss possible sources for the Warm Breeze, including (1) the secondary population of interstellar helium, created via charge exchange and perhaps elastic scattering of neutral interstellar He atoms on interstellar He+ ions in the outer heliosheath, or (2) a gust of interstellar He originating from a hypothetic wave train in the Local Interstellar Cloud. A secondary population is expected from models, but the characteristics of the Warm Breeze do not fully conform to modeling results. If, nevertheless, this is the explanation, IBEX-Lo observations of the Warm Breeze provide key insights into the physical state of plasma in the outer heliosheath. If the second hypothesis is true, the source is likely to be located within a few thousand AU from the Sun, which is the propagation range of possible gusts of interstellar neutral helium with the Warm Breeze characteristics against dissipation via elastic scattering in the Local Cloud. Whatever the nature of the Warm Breeze, its discovery exposes a critical new feature of our heliospheric environment.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Estimating Population Trends in American Woodcock (Scolopax Minor) Using Population Reconstruction Models

The American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population index in North America has declined 0.9% a year since 1968 prompting managers to identify priority information and management needs for the species (Sauer et al 2008). Managers identified a need for a population model that better informs on the status of American woodcock populations (Case et al. 2010). Population reconstruction techniques use long-term age-at-harvest data and harvest effort to estimate abundances with error estimates. Four new models were successfully developed using survey data (1999 to 2013). The optimal model estimates sex specific harvest probability for adult females at 0.148 (SE = 0.017) and all other age-sex cohorts at 0.082 (SE = 0.008) for the most current year 2013. The model estimated a yearly survival rate of 0.528 (SE = 0.008). Total abundance ranged from 5,206,000 woodcock in 2007 to 6,075,800 woodcock in 1999. This study represents the first population estimates of woodcock populations.

Prevalence of Mental Health Problems in Children and Its Associated Socio-Familial Factors in Urban Population of Semnan, Iran (2012)

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) defines mental health as “a state of well-being in which every individual realizes own potential, can cope with the normal pressures of life, is able to work effectively, and can make a contribution to community”. Objectives: Mental Health Problems (MHP) is a great concern for all societies in terms of its burden and impact. This survey screened MHP and its impact in an Iranian urban population aged 6 - 12 years old, and explored its associated socio-familial factors. Patients and Methods: The survey was conducted in the elementary schools of Semnan, using random cluster sampling. Collection and analysis of data was performed using the parent version of the “Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ)” and survey commands of Stata-nine, taking into account cluster effect and population weights. Associations were assessed by fitting simple and multiple logistic regression models. P < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: With regard to the SDQ total score, 19.3% (95% CI: 8.6, 30.1) scored above the normal threshold (9.6% abnormal, 9.7% borderline). The frequency of problems ranged between 16.1% (peer problems) and 8.4% (emotional symptoms), and in all subscales boys were affected more than girls. The impact score was abnormal in 68.4% of all children, and was greater in girls than in boys. “A previously diagnosed mental health disorder” (OR = 11.11, 95% CI: 5.55, 25.00), “male gender” (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.87 and “less time spent with the child by father” (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.17) were significantly associated with an abnormal SDQ. Conclusions: The high rate of MHP in 6 - 12 year-old children and the lack of any significant correlation with their age, underpins the importance of early screening for MHP in schools, with particular focus on high risk groups.

A review of models of spatial innovation infrastructures in support of high growth SMEs

This Paper first provides a review and analysis of the recent trends on innovation infrastructures developed in industrialised countries to promote innovation and competitiveness for high growth SMEs. It specifically aims to examine various spatial models developed to support provision of innovation infrastructure for high growth sector.

Use of first nucleotide change technology to determine the frequency of factor V Leiden in a population of Australian blood donors

Activated protein C resistance (APCR), the most common risk factor for venous thrombosis, is the result of a G to A base substitution at nucleotide 1691 (R506Q) in the factor V gene. Current techniques to detect the factor V Leiden mutation, such as determination of restriction length polymorphisms, do not have the capacity to screen large numbers of samples in a rapid, cost- effective test. The aim of this study was to apply the first nucleotide change (FNC) technology, to the detection of the factor V Leiden mutation. After preliminary amplification of genomic DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), an allele-specific primer was hybridised to the PCR product and extended using fluorescent terminating dideoxynucleotides which were detected by colorimetric assay. Using this ELISA-based assay, the prevalence of the factor V Leiden mutation was determined in an Australian blood donor population (n = 500). A total of 18 heterozygotes were identified (3.6%) and all of these were confirmed with conventional MnlI restriction digest. No homozygotes for the variant allele were detected. We conclude from this study that the frequency of 3.6% is compatible with others published for Caucasian populations. In addition, the FNC technology shows promise as the basis for a rapid, automated DNA based test for factor V Leiden.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Recruitment and results of a pilot trial of vitamin D supplementation in the general population of Australia

Context: The benefits of high serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are unclear. Trials are needed to establish an appropriate evidence base. Objective: We plan to conduct a large-scale trial of vitamin D supplementation for the reduction of cancer incidence and overall mortality and report here the methods and results of a pilot trial established to inform its design. Design: Pilot D-Health was a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting with 12 months intervention and follow-up. Participants: Participants were 60- to 84-yr-old residents of one of the four eastern Australian states who did not have any vitamin D-related disorders and who were not taking more than 400 IU supplementary vitamin D per day. A total of 644 participants were randomized, and 615 completed the study (two persons withdrew because of nonserious adverse events). Interventions: The interventions were monthly doses of placebo or 30,000 or 60,000 IU vitamin D3. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were the recruitment rate and changes in serum 25(OH)D. Results: Ten percent of those approached were recruited. At baseline, the mean 25(OH)D was 42 nmol/liter in all three study arms. The mean change in 25(OH)D in the placebo group was 0.12 nmol/liter, compared with changes of 22 and 36 nmol/liter in the 30,000- and 60,000-IU groups, respectively. Conclusions: The D-Health pilot has shown that a large trial is feasible in Australia and that a dose of 2000 IU/d will be needed to ensure that a large proportion of the population reaches the target serum 25(OH)D level. Copyright © 2012 by The Endocrine Society.