Ensaios em economia política aplicada

Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo.

Análisis organizacional del Partido de la Democracia Social Brasileña en el Estado de San Pablo (1988-2006)

The article represents a theoretical and methodological approach to the analysis of organizational dynamics of political parties today, based on a study of the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) in the State of Sao Pãulo (period between 1988 to 2006). It is hypothesized that the structure and the institutional rules of a particular party, or even their election results, are insufficient to explain the inner workings, such as the role of party organization in the electoral system. An approach that articulates the relationship patterns, election results and posts held in the party, identified the factors that explain the political capital that circulated within the party and ensured its organizational dynamics over the period analyzed.

Economic relations between Latin America and the high-performing Asian developing economies

Includes bibliography

Usina Hidrelétrica de Belo Monte: o campo de forças no licenciamento ambiental e o discurso desenvolvimentista dos agentes políticos

Esta dissertação desenvolve uma análise sobre a dinâmica do campo de relações estabelecido em torno da construção da hidrelétrica de Belo Monte, observada a partir das ações empreendidas no processo de licenciamento ambiental. O objetivo principal foi desvelar as lógicas que organizam ações e relações entre agentes e instituições e determinam o desenrolar dos procedimentos de licenciamento da hidrelétrica. Ficou evidenciado pela análise o enfraquecimento deste instrumento da política ambiental, em razão da produção de uma desregulamentação das regras estabelecidas para licenciar a obra que foi identificada durante o acompanhamento do processo. Reforçando a argumentação do que foi observado, o trabalho analisa elementos e conteúdos presentes nos discursos que comprovam a reprodução da ideologia desenvolvimentista enquanto visão predominante nas políticas nacionais para a Amazônia. Através de revisão bibliográfica, consulta documental e pesquisa de campo, a dissertação mostra que quem mobiliza um grande capital político em favor do projeto e tem mais força no interior do campo de relações são os agentes e instituições em maior aproximação com as questões apontadas como estratégicas nas políticas de desenvolvimento. Neste contexto, segundo as reflexões produzidas neste trabalho, o desequilíbrio entre a força de instituições como Casa Civil, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Setor Elétrico Brasileiro, Ibama, Ministério Público e Movimentos Sociais marca a produção da desregulamentação do licenciamento ambiental, às custas do uso deturpado dos instrumentos nele contidos e dos conceitos nos quais se baseia a sua condução. O resultado desse enfraquecimento vai se refletir, na forma de uma irresponsabilidade institucionalizada, sobre um conjunto mais amplo de direitos presentes na ordem jurídica e no regime democrático brasileiro.

Análisis organizacional del partido de la democracia social brasileña en el estado de San Pablo (1988-2006)

The article represents a theoretical and methodological approach to the analysis of organizational dynamics of political parties today, based on a study of the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) in the State of Sao Pãulo (period between 1988 to 2006). It is hypothesized that the structure and the institutional rules of a particular party, or even their election results, are insufficient to explain the inner workings, such as the role of party organization in the electoral system. An approach that articulates the relationship patterns, election results and posts held in the party, identified the factors that explain the political capital that circulated within the party and ensured its organizational dynamics over the period analyzed.

A oposição da Igreja Católica à ordem jurídica republicana: o pensamento teológico-político de D. Adauto Aurélio de Miranda Henriques (1894-1935)

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS

Interferencias políticas e interinstitucionales al proyecto de centralización de la administración sanitaria nacional (1943-1945)

El objetivo de este trabajo es profundizar en las razones de los cambios que se operan en la estructura administrativa sanitaria nacional entre 1943 y 1945. Si bien la creación de la Dirección Nacional de Salud y Acción Social en 1943 responde a una larga demanda de los círculos académicos de centralización administrativa y de unificación de las funciones sanitarias y asistenciales, la corta duración del proyecto (menos de un año) expone consideraciones por afuera de la lógica administrativa. Analizamos aquellas que se vinculan con la complicada relación entre la repartición nacional con los gobiernos provinciales y las organizaciones de beneficencia, con la injerencia del gremialismo médico en el delineamiento de las políticas sanitarias y con el ascendiente de Juan Domingo Perón desde la Secretaría de Trabajo y Bienestar Social en la monopolización de la asistencia social como capital político.

Interferencias políticas e interinstitucionales al proyecto de centralización de la administración sanitaria nacional (1943-1945)

El objetivo de este trabajo es profundizar en las razones de los cambios que se operan en la estructura administrativa sanitaria nacional entre 1943 y 1945. Si bien la creación de la Dirección Nacional de Salud y Acción Social en 1943 responde a una larga demanda de los círculos académicos de centralización administrativa y de unificación de las funciones sanitarias y asistenciales, la corta duración del proyecto (menos de un año) expone consideraciones por afuera de la lógica administrativa. Analizamos aquellas que se vinculan con la complicada relación entre la repartición nacional con los gobiernos provinciales y las organizaciones de beneficencia, con la injerencia del gremialismo médico en el delineamiento de las políticas sanitarias y con el ascendiente de Juan Domingo Perón desde la Secretaría de Trabajo y Bienestar Social en la monopolización de la asistencia social como capital político.

Interferencias políticas e interinstitucionales al proyecto de centralización de la administración sanitaria nacional (1943-1945)

El objetivo de este trabajo es profundizar en las razones de los cambios que se operan en la estructura administrativa sanitaria nacional entre 1943 y 1945. Si bien la creación de la Dirección Nacional de Salud y Acción Social en 1943 responde a una larga demanda de los círculos académicos de centralización administrativa y de unificación de las funciones sanitarias y asistenciales, la corta duración del proyecto (menos de un año) expone consideraciones por afuera de la lógica administrativa. Analizamos aquellas que se vinculan con la complicada relación entre la repartición nacional con los gobiernos provinciales y las organizaciones de beneficencia, con la injerencia del gremialismo médico en el delineamiento de las políticas sanitarias y con el ascendiente de Juan Domingo Perón desde la Secretaría de Trabajo y Bienestar Social en la monopolización de la asistencia social como capital político.

Unemployment is the scourge, not youth unemployment per se. The misguided policy preoccupation with youth. CEPS Policy Brief No. 294, 26 June 2013

This Policy Brief argues that too much effort and political capital is being spent by the Commission and member states on being seen to be doing something quickly about youth unemployment when, in fact, the structural measures proposed will only have long-term effects. Expectations of immediate relief are running well above what can be delivered, especially at the EU level. Given the macroeconomic situation, no policy option will deliver a significant dent in either youth unemployment or unemployment in general. The EU policies on the table that are supposed to have an immediate effect, such as increased lending from the European Investment Bank to SMEs for the hiring of young people, will only have a very marginal impact on youth unemployment. Moreover, this impact will come mostly to the detriment of older unemployed persons excluded from such a scheme. Given the perceived need to ‘be seen to be doing something’, we fear that policies subsidising young workers de facto at the expense of older workers or, even worse, policies that subsidise older workers for not taking young people’s jobs, will proliferate. In fact, it is not at all clear that young people suffer more from being unemployed than older people, or even disproportionately more than older unemployed individuals. In particular, it is not clear that the much-publicised notion of a ‘lost generation’ with permanent ‘scars’ is relevant only to the young generation. The paper ends by highlighting the much-neglected policy option of encouraging labour mobility within the internal market. Although the Commission is ‘upgrading and modernising’ its tools, much more could be done in this area – to the benefit of the individuals concerned, the member states, and European integration in general.

Brexit – lessons from four referenda on the European Union (EU) in Denmark. EU Centre, Policy Brief No. 8, June 2015

From 1972 to 1993 Denmark staged four referenda on the EU. Two of them in particular hold valuable lessons for Britain seeking new terms - in June 1992 on the Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty), the Danes voted “NO” with a slim majority; this was followed by another vote on the treaty in May 1993 on the Edinburgh Agreement with a “YES” vote. Joergen Oerstroem Moeller was directly involved in all four referenda and served 1989-1997 as State-Secretary in the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry. The result of a referendum may and often will be decided by policy decisions shaping the electorates’ perception long before the voting takes place. The majority votes according to instinct and intuition and is often guided by emotions. The Danish case highlights the importance of defining clearly specific exceptions, working hard to explain the case (at home and abroad), establishing good-will, and conveying that exceptions are in principle temporary and do not require treaty changes. The objectives laid out at the start of the process must be achievable. The member state in question should not manoeuvre itself into humiliating back-pedalling at the final negotiation round: if so it arouses suspicion among the electorate that it is being manipulated and deceived. During the campaign media attention will primarily focus on dissent and scepticism presenting the establishment with the tedious task of confuting accusations of all kinds. The YES camp will be pushed into the defensive by the NO camp setting the agenda. Time and effort and political capital needed to be invested for the positive outcome.

Will Cameron get what he wants? Anticipating reactions to Britain’s EU reform proposals. CEPS Commentary, 29 October 2015

After months of speculation about the British Prime Minister’s specific demands in terms of the “renegotiation” of the UK’s relationship with the EU, David Cameron has bowed to pressure from the heads of state or government of the other EU member states and committed himself to setting out the UK’s specific “concerns” in writing by early November. While we cannot be certain of the contents of David Cameron’s missive to the EU, his recent pronouncements before Parliament set out an agenda whose contours have become quite clear. In this Commentary the authors consider how far the other EU member states might be willing to accommodate Cameron’s demands and provide him with the political capital he seeks to lead the ‘in’ campaign. They distinguish four different attitudes among EU countries, and advocate a constructive approach that sets the scene for a Convention after 2017 – one that opens the treaty for a revision that could accommodate both the British demands for an ‘opt-out’ from ever closer union and gives leeway to those who wish to integrate further. Putting emphasis on strengthening the single market in the more immediate term would allow the Prime Minister to show his home audience that he is a leading reformer and that the EU gives oxygen to the British economy.This is an obvious area where he might be able to seal deals during the UK’s Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2017. The authors also consider what the European Council Conclusions on the UK’s wish list for EU reform might look like, given that any treaty revision before the time set for the UK referendum is unattainable. They present the results of a two-day simulation exercise involving a cross-section of national experts and present mock European Council Conclusions on the areas of ever closer union; the role of national parliaments; competitiveness; economic and monetary integration; and the free movement of labour.

The EU deal to avoid Brexit: Take it or leave. CEPS Special Report No. 131/February 2016

Beyond the drama of the European Council summit of 18-19 February 2016, what became clear was the fundamental desire on the part of the leaders of all 28 EU member states to agree a deal on the British government’s demands for a renegotiated settlement on the UK’s relationship within the European Union. The deal has provided David Cameron with the political capital he needed to call a date for the in/out referendum and to lead a campaign for the UK to stay in the EU. Yet, for all the technical reforms packed into it, the deal is neither a crowd pleaser nor a vote winner. It does, however, mark a watershed acknowledgement that EU integration is not a one-directional process of ‘ever closer union’. In this CEPS Special Report, Stefani Weiss and Steven Blockmans analyse the substance of the “Decision of the Heads of State or Government, meeting within the European Council, concerning a New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union” and shed light on its legal character. They contextualise this EU deal to avoid Brexit, and draw on the conclusions reached in a simulation of European Council negotiations between representatives of think tanks in the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN), conducted by CEPS and the Bertelsmann Stiftung in October 2015.

Written on Running Water: Ovidian Poetics in the Roman Waterscape

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The use of presidential executive orders to control the management and administration of the federal government

As long as governmental institutions have existed, efforts have been undertaken to reform them. This research examines a particular strategy, coercive controls, exercised through a particular instrument, executive orders, by a singular reformer, the president of the United States. The presidents studied-- Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton--are those whose campaigns for office were characterized to varying degrees as against Washington bureaucracy and for executive reform. Executive order issuance is assessed through an examination of key factors for each president including political party affiliation, levels of political capital, and legislative experience. A classification typology is used to identify the topical dimensions and levels of coerciveness. The portrayal of the federal government is analyzed through examination of public, media, and presidential attention. The results show that executive orders are significant management tools for the president. Executive orders also represent an important component of the transition plans for incoming administrations. The findings indicate that overall, while executive orders have not increased in the aggregate, they are more intrusive and significant. When the factors of political party affiliation, political capital, and legislative experience are examined, it reveals a strong relationship between executive orders and previous executive experience, specifically presidents who served as a state governor prior to winning national election as president. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton (all former governors) have the highest percent of executive orders focusing on the federal bureaucracy. Additionally, the highest percent of forceful orders were issued by former governors (41.0%) as compared to their presidential counterparts who have not served as governors (19.9%). Secondly, political party affiliation is an important, but not significant, predictor for the use of executive orders. Thirdly, management strategies that provide the president with the greatest level of autonomy--executive orders--redefine the concept of presidential power and autonomous action. Interviews of elite government officials and political observers support the idea that executive orders can provide the president with a successful management strategy, requiring less expenditure of political resources, less risk to political capital, and a way of achieving objectives without depending on an unresponsive Congress. ^