Modelling the relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour: policy and indicators

Due to the necessity to undertake activities, every year people increase their standards of travelling (distance and time). Urban sprawl development plays an important role in these "enlargements". Thus, governments invest money in an exhaustiva search for solutions to high levels of congestion and car-trips. The complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. Thus, the objective of this paper is to answer the important question of which land-use attributes influence which dimensions of travel behaviour, and to verify to what extent specific urban planning measures affect the individual decision process, by exhaustiva statistical and systematic tests. This paper found that a crucial issue in the analysis of the relationship between the built environment and travel behaviour is the definition of indicators. As such, we recommend a feasible list of indicators to analyze this relationship.

A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Applying a public policy evaluation methodology for local socio-economic impacts: an exploration in realistic modelling

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Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Sustainable urban infrastructure management : integration of urban computer modelling

Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the complex relationships between urban planning, infrastructure management, sustainable urban development, and to illustrate why there is an urgent need for local governments to develop a robust planning support system which integrates with advance urban computer modelling tools to facilitate better infrastructure management and improve knowledge sharing between the community, urban planners, engineers and decision makers. Design/methodology/approach - The methods used in this paper includes literature review and practical project case observations. Originality/value - This paper provides an insight of how the Brisbane's planning support system established by Brisbane City Council has significantly improved the effectiveness of urban planning, infrastructure management and community engagement through better knowledge management processes. Practical implications - This paper presents a practical framework for setting up a functional planning support system within local government. The integration of the Brisbane Urban Growth model, Virtual Brisbane and the Brisbane Economic Activity Monitoring (BEAM) database have proven initially successful to provide a dynamic platform to assist elected officials, planners and engineers to understand the limitations of the local environment, its urban systems and the planning implications on a city. With the Brisbane's planning support system, planners and decision makers are able to provide better planning outcomes, policy and infrastructure that adequately address the local needs and achieve sustainable spatial forms.

The geometric modelling of social frames and contexts

How do humans respond to their social context? This question is becoming increasingly urgent in a society where democracy requires that the citizens of a country help to decide upon its policy directions, and yet those citizens frequently have very little knowledge of the complex issues that these policies seek to address. Frequently, we find that humans make their decisions more with reference to their social setting, than to the arguments of scientists, academics, and policy makers. It is broadly anticipated that the agent based modelling (ABM) of human behaviour will make it possible to treat such social effects, but we take the position here that a more sophisticated treatment of context will be required in many such models. While notions such as historical context (where the past history of an agent might affect its later actions) and situational context (where the agent will choose a different action in a different situation) abound in ABM scenarios, we will discuss a case of a potentially changing context, where social effects can have a strong influence upon the perceptions of a group of subjects. In particular, we shall discuss a recently reported case where a biased worm in an election debate led to significant distortions in the reports given by participants as to who won the debate (Davis et al 2011). Thus, participants in a different social context drew different conclusions about the perceived winner of the same debate, with associated significant differences among the two groups as to who they would vote for in the coming election. We extend this example to the problem of modelling the likely electoral responses of agents in the context of the climate change debate, and discuss the notion of interference between related questions that might be asked of an agent in a social simulation that was intended to simulate their likely responses. A modelling technology which could account for such strong social contextual effects would benefit regulatory bodies which need to navigate between multiple interests and concerns, and we shall present one viable avenue for constructing such a technology. A geometric approach will be presented, where the internal state of an agent is represented in a vector space, and their social context is naturally modelled as a set of basis states that are chosen with reference to the problem space.

Modelling, collaboration and integration : a case study for the delivery of public buildings

An evolution in the use of digital modelling has occurred in the Queensland Department of Public Works Division of Project Services over the last 20 years from: the initial implementation of computer aided design and documentation (CADD); to experimentation with building information modelling (BIM); to embedding integrated practice (IP); to current steps towards integrated project delivery (IPD) including the active involvement of consultants and contractors in the design/delivery process. This case study is one of three undertaken through the Australian Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre investigating past R&D investment. The intent of these cases is to inform the development of policy guidelines for future investment in the construction industry in Australia. This research is informing the activities of CIB Task Group 85 R&D Investment and Impact. The uptake of digital modelling by Project Services has been approached through an incremental learning approach. This has been driven by a strong and clear vision with a focus on developing more efficient delivery mechanisms through the use of new technology coupled with process change. Findings reveal an organisational focus on several areas including: (i) strategic decision making including the empowerment of innovation leaders and champions; (ii) the acquisition and exploitation of knowledge; (iii) product and process development (with a focus on efficiency and productivity); (iv) organisational learning; (v) maximising the use of technology; and (vi) supply chain integration. Key elements of this approach include pilot projects, researcher engagement, industry partnerships and leadership.

Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

A policy model for access control using building information models

Building information models have created a paradigm shift in how buildings are built and managed by providing a dynamic repository for building data that is useful in many new operational scenarios. This change has also created an opportunity to use building information models as an integral part of security operations and especially as a tool to facilitate fine-grained access control to building spaces in smart buildings and critical infrastructure environments. In this paper, we identify the requirements for a security policy model for such an access control system and discuss why the existing policy models are not suitable for this application. We propose a new policy language extension to XACML, with BIM specific data types and functions based on the IFC specification, which we call BIM-XACML.

The social inclusion policy agenda in Australia: A case of old wine, new bottles?

The election of an Australian Labor Government in Australia in 2007 saw ‘social inclusion’ emerge as the official and overarching social policy agenda. Being ‘included’ was subsequently defined by the ALP Government as being able to ‘have the resources, opportunities and capabilities needed to learn, work, engage and have a voice’. Various researchers in Australia demonstrated an interest in social inclusion, as it enabled them to construct a multi-dimensional framework for measuring disadvantage. This research program resulted in various forms of statistical modelling based on some agreement about what it means to be included in society. The multi-dimensional approach taken by academic researchers, however, did not necessarily translate to a new model of social policy development or implementation. We argue that, similar to the experience of the UK, Australia’s social inclusion policy agenda was for the most part narrowly and individually defined by politicians and policy makers, particularly in terms of equating being employed with being included. We conclude with discussion about the need to strengthen the social inclusion framework by adopting an understanding of social inequality and social justice that is more relational and less categorical.

Integration of Geospatial and Built Environment - National Data Policy

Digital technology offers enormous benefits (economic, quality of design and efficiency in use) if adopted to implement integrated ways of representing the physical world in a digital form. When applied across the full extent of the built and natural world, it is referred to as the Digital Built Environment (DBE) and encompasses a wide range of approaches and technology initiatives, all aimed at the same end goal: the development of a virtual world that sufficiently mirrors the real world to form the basis for the smart cities of the present and future, enable efficient infrastructure design and programmed maintenance, and create a new foundation for economic growth and social well-being through evidence-based analysis. The creation of a National Data Policy for the DBE will facilitate the creation of additional high technology industries in Australia; provide Governments, industries and citizens with greater knowledge of the environments they occupy and plan; and offer citizen-driven innovations for the future. Australia has slipped behind other nations in the adoption and execution of Building Information Modelling (BIM) and the principal concern is that the gap is widening. Data driven innovation added $67 billion to the Australian economy in 20131. Strong open data policy equates to $16 billion in new value2. Australian Government initiatives such as the Digital Earth inspired “National Map” offer a platform and pathway to embrace the concept of a “BIM Globe”, while also leveraging unprecedented growth in open source / open data collaboration. Australia must address the challenges by learning from international experiences—most notably the UK and NZ—and mandate the use of BIM across Government, extending the Framework for Spatial Data Foundation to include the Built Environment as a theme and engaging collaboration through a “BIM globe” metaphor. This proposed DBE strategy will modernise the Australian urban planning and the construction industry. It will change the way we develop our cities by fundamentally altering the dynamics and behaviours of the supply chains and unlocking new and more efficient ways of collaborating at all stages of the project life-cycle. There are currently two major modelling approaches that contribute to the challenge of delivering the DBE. Though these collectively encompass many (often competing) approaches or proprietary software systems, all can be categorised as either: a spatial modelling approach, where the focus is generally on representing the elements that make up the world within their geographic context; and a construction modelling approach, where the focus is on models that support the life cycle management of the built environment. These two approaches have tended to evolve independently, addressing two broad industry sectors: the one concerned with understanding and managing global and regional aspects of the world that we inhabit, including disciplines concerned with climate, earth sciences, land ownership, urban and regional planning and infrastructure management; the other is concerned with planning, design, construction and operation of built facilities and includes architectural and engineering design, product manufacturing, construction, facility management and related disciplines (a process/technology commonly known as Building Information Modelling, BIM). The spatial industries have a strong voice in the development of public policy in Australia, while the construction sector, which in 2014 accounted for around 8.5% of Australia’s GDP3, has no single voice and because of its diversity, is struggling to adapt to and take advantage of the opportunity presented by these digital technologies. The experience in the UK over the past few years has demonstrated that government leadership is very effective in stimulating industry adoption of digital technologies by, on the one hand, mandating the use of BIM on public procurement projects while at the same time, providing comparatively modest funding to address the common issues that confront the industry in adopting that way of working across the supply chain. The reported result has been savings of £840m in construction costs in 2013/14 according to UK Cabinet Office figures4. There is worldwide recognition of the value of bringing these two modelling technologies together. Australia has the expertise to exercise leadership in this work, but it requires a commitment by government to recognise the importance of BIM as a companion methodology to the spatial technologies so that these two disciplinary domains can cooperate in the development of data policies and information exchange standards to smooth out common workflows. buildingSMART Australasia, SIBA and their academic partners have initiated this dialogue in Australia and wish to work collaboratively, with government support and leadership, to explore the opportunities open to us as we develop an Australasian Digital Built Environment. As part of that programme, we must develop and implement a strategy to accelerate the adoption of BIM processes across the Australian construction sector while at the same time, developing an integrated approach in concert with the spatial sector that will position Australia at the forefront of international best practice in this area. Australia and New Zealand cannot afford to be on the back foot as we face the challenges of rapid urbanisation and change in the global environment. Although we can identify some exemplary initiatives in this area, particularly in New Zealand in response to the need for more resilient urban development in the face of earthquake threats, there is still much that needs to be done. We are well situated in the Asian region to take a lead in this challenge, but we are at imminent risk of losing the initiative if we do not take action now. Strategic collaboration between Governments, Industry and Academia will create new jobs and wealth, with the potential, for example, to save around 20% on the delivery costs of new built assets, based on recent UK estimates.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.