Joint dispersion model with a flexible link

Poster presented at the Workshop on Flexible Models for Longitudinal and Survival Data with Applications in Biostatistics. University of Warwick, Coventry, UK, 27-29 July 2015

Survival analysis with internal covariates modelled using a longitudinal dispersion model and flexible links

Poster presented at the From Basic Sciences to Clinical Research: 1st International Congress of CiiEM. Egas Moniz, Caparica, Portugal, 27-28 November 2015

Evaluation of the use of multiple lines for determination of metals in water by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry with axial viewing

Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometers (ICP DES) allow fast simultaneous measurements of several spectral lines for multiple elements. The combination of signal intensities of two or more emission lines for each element may bring such advantages as improvement of the precision, the minimization of systematic errors caused by spectral interferences and matrix effects. In this work, signal intensities for several spectral lines were combined for the determination of Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Mn, Pb, and Zn in water. Afterwards, parameters for evaluation of the calibration model were calculated to select the combination of emission lines leading to the best accuracy (lowest values of PRESS-Predicted error sum of squares and RMSEP-Root means square error of prediction). Limits of detection (LOD) obtained using multiple lines were 7.1, 0.5, 4.4, 0.042, 3.3, 28 and 6.7 mu g L(-1) (n = 10) for Al, Cd. Co, Cr, Mn, Pb and Zn, respectively, in the presence of concomitants. On the other hand, the LOD established for the most intense emission line were 16. 0.7, 8.4, 0.074. 23, 26 and 9.6 mu g L(-1) (n = 10) for these same elements in the presence of concomitants. The accuracy of the developed procedure was demonstrated using water certified reference material. The use of multiple lines improved the sensitivity making feasible the determination of these analytes according to the target values required for the current environmental legislation for water samples and it was also demonstrated that measurements in multiple lines can also be employed as a tool to verify the accuracy of an analytical procedure in ICP DES. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New prediction methods for CO2 evaporation inside tubes: Part II - An updated general flow boiling heat transfer model based on flow patterns

Corresponding to the updated flow pattern map presented in Part I of this study, an updated general flow pattern based flow boiling heat transfer model was developed for CO2 using the Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome [L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside horizontal tubes, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 49 (2006) 4082-4094; L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, Erratum to: ""New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside tubes"" [Heat Mass Transfer 49 (21-22) (2006) 4082-4094], Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 50 (2007) 391] flow boiling heat transfer model as the starting basis. The flow boiling heat transfer correlation in the dryout region was updated. In addition, a new mist flow heat transfer correlation for CO2 was developed based on the CO2 data and a heat transfer method for bubbly flow was proposed for completeness sake. The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model for CO2 covers all flow regimes and is applicable to a wider range of conditions for horizontal tubes: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to 25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model was compared to a new experimental database which contains 1124 data points (790 more than that in the previous model [Cheng et al., 2006, 2007]) in this study. Good agreement between the predicted and experimental data was found in general with 71.4% of the entire database and 83.2% of the database without the dryout and mist flow data predicted within +/-30%. However, the predictions for the dryout and mist flow regions were less satisfactory due to the limited number of data points, the higher inaccuracy in such data, scatter in some data sets ranging up to 40%, significant discrepancies from one experimental study to another and the difficulties associated with predicting the inception and completion of dryout around the perimeter of the horizontal tubes. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coarse-grid higher order finite-difference time-domain algorithm with low dispersion errors

Higher order (2,4) FDTD schemes used for numerical solutions of Maxwell`s equations are focused on diminishing the truncation errors caused by the Taylor series expansion of the spatial derivatives. These schemes use a larger computational stencil, which generally makes use of the two constant coefficients, C-1 and C-2, for the four-point central-difference operators. In this paper we propose a novel way to diminish these truncation errors, in order to obtain more accurate numerical solutions of Maxwell`s equations. For such purpose, we present a method to individually optimize the pair of coefficients, C-1 and C-2, based on any desired grid size resolution and size of time step. Particularly, we are interested in using coarser grid discretizations to be able to simulate electrically large domains. The results of our optimization algorithm show a significant reduction in dispersion error and numerical anisotropy for all modeled grid size resolutions. Numerical simulations of free-space propagation verifies the very promising theoretical results. The model is also shown to perform well in more complex, realistic scenarios.

Commentary: Using the convection-dispersion model and transit time density functions in the analysis of organ distribution kinetics

The convection-dispersion model and its extended form have been used to describe solute disposition in organs and to predict hepatic availabilities. A range of empirical transit-time density functions has also been used for a similar purpose. The use of the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions and transit-time density functions has been queried recently by Hisaka and Sugiyanaa in this journal. We suggest that, consistent with soil science and chemical engineering literature, the mixed boundary conditions are appropriate providing concentrations are defined in terms of flux to ensure continuity at the boundaries and mass balance. It is suggested that the use of the inverse Gaussian or other functions as empirical transit-time densities is independent of any boundary condition consideration. The mixed boundary condition solutions of the convection-dispersion model are the easiest to use when linear kinetics applies. In contrast, the closed conditions are easier to apply in a numerical analysis of nonlinear disposition of solutes in organs. We therefore argue that the use of hepatic elimination models should be based on pragmatic considerations, giving emphasis to using the simplest or easiest solution that will give a sufficiently accurate prediction of hepatic pharmacokinetics for a particular application. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 89:1579-1586, 2000.

Quantification of myocardial blood flow with 82Rb positron emission tomography: clinical validation with 15O-water.

PURPOSE: Quantification of myocardial blood flow (MBF) with generator-produced (82)Rb is an attractive alternative for centres without an on-site cyclotron. Our aim was to validate (82)Rb-measured MBF in relation to that measured using (15)O-water, as a tracer 100% of which can be extracted from the circulation even at high flow rates, in healthy control subject and patients with mild coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: MBF was measured at rest and during adenosine-induced hyperaemia with (82)Rb and (15)O-water PET in 33 participants (22 control subjects, aged 30 ± 13 years; 11 CAD patients without transmural infarction, aged 60 ± 13 years). A one-tissue compartment (82)Rb model with ventricular spillover correction was used. The (82)Rb flow-dependent extraction rate was derived from (15)O-water measurements in a subset of 11 control subjects. Myocardial flow reserve (MFR) was defined as the hyperaemic/rest MBF. Pearson's correlation r, Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement (LoA), and Lin's concordance correlation ρ (c) (measuring both precision and accuracy) were used. RESULTS: Over the entire MBF range (0.66-4.7 ml/min/g), concordance was excellent for MBF (r = 0.90, [(82)Rb-(15)O-water] mean difference ± SD = 0.04 ± 0.66 ml/min/g, LoA = -1.26 to 1.33 ml/min/g, ρ(c) = 0.88) and MFR (range 1.79-5.81, r = 0.83, mean difference = 0.14 ± 0.58, LoA = -0.99 to 1.28, ρ(c) = 0.82). Hyperaemic MBF was reduced in CAD patients compared with the subset of 11 control subjects (2.53 ± 0.74 vs. 3.62 ± 0.68 ml/min/g, p = 0.002, for (15)O-water; 2.53 ± 1.01 vs. 3.82 ± 1.21 ml/min/g, p = 0.013, for (82)Rb) and this was paralleled by a lower MFR (2.65 ± 0.62 vs. 3.79 ± 0.98, p = 0.004, for (15)O-water; 2.85 ± 0.91 vs. 3.88 ± 0.91, p = 0.012, for (82)Rb). Myocardial perfusion was homogeneous in 1,114 of 1,122 segments (99.3%) and there were no differences in MBF among the coronary artery territories (p > 0.31). CONCLUSION: Quantification of MBF with (82)Rb with a newly derived correction for the nonlinear extraction function was validated against MBF measured using (15)O-water in control subjects and patients with mild CAD, where it was found to be accurate at high flow rates. (82)Rb-derived MBF estimates seem robust for clinical research, advancing a step further towards its implementation in clinical routine.

Hydrodynamics Characteristics and Gas-Liquid Mass Transfer in a Three Phase Fluidized Bed Reactor

This paper presents the experimental characterization of hydrodynamics and gas-liquid mass transfer in a three-phase fluidized bed containing polystyrene and nylon particles. The influence of gas and liquid velocities on phase holdups and volumetric gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient was investigated for flow conditions similar to those applied in biotechnological process. The phase holdups were obtained by the pressure profile technique. The volumetric gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient was obtained adjusting the experimental concentration profiles of dissolved oxygen in the liquid phase with the predictions of the axial dispersion model. According to experimental results the liquid holdup increases with the gas velocity, whereas the solid holdup decreases. The gas holdup increases significantly with the increase in gas velocity, and it shows for the three-phase fluidized bed comparable values or larger than those of bubble column. The volumetric gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient increases significantly with an increase in the air velocity for both bubble column and fluidized beds. In addition, in the operational condition of high liquid velocity, the presence of low-density particles in the bed increased the gas-liquid mass transfer, and thus the volumetric mass transfer coefficient values obtained in the fluidized bed were comparable or larger than those of bubble column.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

The gravity wave momentum flux in hydrostatic flow with directional shear over elliptical mountains

Semi-analytical expressions for the momentum flux associated with orographic internal gravity waves, and closed analytical expressions for its divergence, are derived for inviscid, stationary, hydrostatic, directionally-sheared flow over mountains with an elliptical horizontal cross-section. These calculations, obtained using linear theory conjugated with a third-order WKB approximation, are valid for relatively slowly-varying, but otherwise generic wind profiles, and given in a form that is straightforward to implement in drag parametrization schemes. When normalized by the surface drag in the absence of shear, a quantity that is calculated routinely in existing drag parametrizations, the momentum flux becomes independent of the detailed shape of the orography. Unlike linear theory in the Ri → ∞ limit, the present calculations account for shear-induced amplification or reduction of the surface drag, and partial absorption of the wave momentum flux at critical levels. Profiles of the normalized momentum fluxes obtained using this model and a linear numerical model without the WKB approximation are evaluated and compared for two idealized wind profiles with directional shear, for different Richardson numbers (Ri). Agreement is found to be excellent for the first wind profile (where one of the wind components varies linearly) down to Ri = 0.5, while not so satisfactory, but still showing a large improvement relative to the Ri → ∞ limit, for the second wind profile (where the wind turns with height at a constant rate keeping a constant magnitude). These results are complementary, in the Ri > O(1) parameter range, to Broad’s generalization of the Eliassen–Palm theorem to 3D flow. They should contribute to improve drag parametrizations used in global weather and climate prediction models.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

Diagnostic tools in beta regression with varying dispersion

We consider the issue of performing residual and local influence analyses in beta regression models with varying dispersion, which are useful for modelling random variables that assume values in the standard unit interval. In such models, both the mean and the dispersion depend upon independent variables. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. An application using real data is presented and discussed.

Start-up adjustment of a plug-flow digester for cassava wastewater (manipueira) treatment

Um dos resíduos gerados no processamento da mandioca (Manihot esculenta) é a manipueira, passível de tratamento por biodigestão anaeróbia. Este trabalho objetivou estudar o processo de partida de um biodigestor tipo plug-flow, tratando manipueira de duas maneiras: diminuindo-se gradativamente o tempo de retenção hidráulica (TRH) até se chegar ao tempo pré-estabelecido, quatro dias; ou mantendo-se o TRH fixo em quatro dias e aumentando-se gradativamente a concentração do afluente. O biodigestor, com capacidade 1980 mL, foi mantido a temperatura de 32ºC ± 1. Empregou-se como substrato manipueira e ajustou-se o pH entre 5,5 e 6,0. A primeira etapa foi caracterizada empregando-se TRH de 16,6; 13,6; 11,6 e 9,6 dias e 3,1; 2,0; 2,3 e 2,9 g DQO L-1 d-1 de carga orgânica, respectivamente. Na segunda etapa manteve-se TRH fixo, 4 dias, porém cargas orgânicas de 0,48, 0,86, 1,65 e 2,46 g DQO L-1 d-1. Determinaram-se no afluente e efluente, sólidos totais (ST) e sólidos voláteis (SV), demanda química de oxigênio (DQO), alcalinidade e acidez volátil. Na primeira etapa, melhores resultados foram observados trabalhando com TRH 9,6 dias e carga orgânica 2,9 g DQO L-1 d-1, quando houve redução de DQO, ST e SV de 60%, 44% e 60%, respectivamente. Na segunda etapa o TRH de 4 dias apresentou melhores resultados empregando-se carga orgânica de 0,86 g DQO L-1 d-1, houve redução de 71%, 58% e 79% de DQO, ST e SV, respectivamente. A partida do biodigestor plug-flow tratando manipueira, pode ser realizada tanto diminuindo-se o TRH, quanto mantendo-o fixo e aumentado-se a concentração do afluente.

Tracing of 15N in a mountain spruce forest: comparison of experimental data with th TRACE model

Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.