Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Stirring, charging, and picking: hunting tactics of potamotrygonid rays in the upper Paraná River

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Algoritmo genético aplicado ao sequenciamento de picking e faturamento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo do método de inversão tomográfica 2D baseada nos atributos cinemáticos da onda NIP e construção de interface gráfica para o processo de picking

Neste trabalho, estuda-se um novo método de inversão tomográfica de reflexão para a determinação de um modelo isotrópico e suave de velocidade por meio da aplicação, em dados sintéticos e reais, do programa Niptomo que é uma implementação do método de inversão tomográfica dos atributos cinemáticos da onda hipotética do ponto de incidência normal (PIN). Os dados de entrada para a inversão tomográfica, isto é, o tempo de trânsito e os atributos da onda PIN (raio de curvatura da frente de onda emergente e ângulo de emergência), são retirados de uma série de pontos escolhidos na seção afastamento nulo (AN) simulada, obtida pelo método de empilhamento por superfícies de reflexão comum (SRC). Normalmente, a escolha destes pontos na seção AN é realizada utilizando-se programas de picking automático, que identificam eventos localmente coerentes na seção sísmica com base nos parâmetros fornecidos pelo usuário. O picking é um dos processos mais críticos dos métodos de inversão tomográfica, pois a inclusão de dados de eventos que não sejam de reflexões primárias podem ser incluídos neste processo, prejudicando assim o modelo de velocidades a ser obtido pela inversão tomográfica. Este trabalho tem por objetivo de construir um programa de picking interativo para fornecer ao usuário o controle da escolha dos pontos de reflexões sísmicas primárias, cujos dados serão utilizados na inversão tomográfica. Os processos de picking e inversão tomográfica são aplicados nos dados sintéticos Marmousi e nos dados da linha sísmica 50-RL-90 da Bacia do Tacutu. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o picking interativo para a escolha de pontos sobre eventos de reflexões primárias favorece na obtenção de um modelo de velocidade mais preciso.

“PROVINCIALISM, PICKING SIDES AND BIAS: EFFECTS OF GEOGRAPHY ON MEDIA COVERAGE OF CRYSTAL BRIDGES MUSEUM OF AMERICAN ART, 2005-10.”

The development of Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art in Bentonville, Arkansas, by Wal-Mart heiress Alice Walton has prompted diverse coverage from print and online media. This investigation looked at trends in news stories and commentary from 2005-10 to show how the location of a medium affected coverage. Through the author’s own observations and interviews with journalists and other interested parties, several trends emerged. Media outlets outside Arkansas portrayed the museum as trying to plunder the cultural heritage of local communities and relied partly on the museum’s association with Wal-Mart and stereotypes of Arkansas to frame coverage. Arkansas media, faced with limited cooperation from the museum’s public relations apparatus, typically played a cheerleader role, at times overemphasizing the importance of the collection in the art world and showcasing few critical voices in stories about acquisitions and other areas of the museum’s development.

Skin picking and trichotillomania in adults with obsessive-compulsive disorder

The objective of this study was to compare patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) associated with pathologic skin picking (PSP) and/or trichotillomania, and patients with OCD without such comorbidities, for demographic and clinical characteristics. We assessed 901 individuals with a primary diagnosis of OCD, using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) Axis I disorders. Diagnoses of PSP and trichotillomania were made in 16.3% and 4.9% of the sample, respectively. After the logistic regression analysis, the following factors retained an association with OCD-PSP/trichotillomania: younger (odds ratio [OR] = 0.979; P = .047), younger at the onset of compulsive symptoms (OR = 0.941; P = .007), woman (OR = 2.538; P < .001), with a higher level of education (OR = 1.055; P = .025), and with comorbid body dysmorphic disorder (OR = 2.363; P = .004). These findings support the idea that OCD accompanied by PSP/trichotillomania characterizes a specific subgroup. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of evaluations for the choice of system solutions at the example of automated order-picking systems for bagged goods

There is a steadily increasing pressure on cost-savings and productivity growth in sectors of order-picking such that the wish for rationalization by automation is rising. Special problems are faced trying to automatize handling operations of order-picking articles packed in bags. The mechanical properties of the objects and their hard-to-predict shape and position represent obstacles and are complicating handling operations. A systematic approach in system design is required. This article deals with the properties of such products under aspects of difficulties arising in automated handling and points out a useful system development methodology.

Metaheuristics for the Order Batching Problem in Manual Order Picking Systems

In manual order picking systems, order pickers walk or drive through a distribution warehouse in order to collect items which are requested by (internal or external) customers. In order to perform these operations efficiently, it is usually required that customer orders are combined into (more substantial) picking orders of limited size. The Order Batching Problem considered in this paper deals with the question of how a given set of customer orders should be combined such that the total length of all tours is minimized which are necessary to collect all items. The authors introduce two metaheuristic approaches for the solution of this problem: the first one is based on Iterated Local Search; the second on Ant Colony Optimization. In a series of extensive numerical experiments, the newly developed approaches are benchmarked against classic solution methods. It is demonstrated that the proposed methods are not only superior to existing methods but provide solutions which may allow distribution warehouses to be operated significantly more efficiently.

Why Cherry-Picking Never Leads to Harmonisation: The Case of the Limitations on Copyright under Directive 2001/29/EC

The article examines whether the norms laid down in the Directive in relation to the exceptions and limitations on copyright and related rights can be conducive to a sensible degree of harmonisation across the European Union. Before discussing the degree of harmonisation achieved so far by the Directive, the first part gives a short overview of the main characteristics of the list of exceptions and limitations contained in Article 5 of the Directive. A comprehensive review of the implementation of each limitation by the Member States is beyond the scope of this article. The following section takes a closer look at three examples of limitations that have led to legislative changes at the Member State level as express measures towards the implementation of the Information Society Directive, that is, the limitations for the benefit of libraries, for teaching and research, and for persons with a disability. These exceptions and limitations were later on also identified by the European Commission as key elements in the deployment of a digital knowledge economy. The analysis will show that the implementation of the provisions on limitations in the Information Society Directive did not, and probably cannot, yield the expected level of harmonisation across the European Union and that, as a consequence, there still exists a significant degree of uncertainty for the stakeholders regarding the extent of permissible acts with respect to copyright protected works.

Comparison of performance measurement-systems used for order-picking

In consequence of rapidly changing market demands companies are permanently encouraged to review their own processes and structures and to modify them. Being one of these developments, order-picking is involved as part of an intra-logistics system. But to take appropriate actions, system performance and system costs have to be measured permanently. Concerning this the use of performance measurement-systems as further development of traditional systems of key figures is suitable. In this paper various performance measurement-systems are compared and their suitability for an implementation in order-picking systems is estimated. On the basis of the result of the evaluation a first concept of a performance measurement-system for order-picking will be developed by using typical key figures that are mentioned in academic literature. Finally, hints for a necessary detailed implementation and evaluation in practice will be given.

Learning Curves of Temporary Workers in Manual Order Picking Activities

Person-to-stock order picking is highly flexible and requires minimal investment costs in comparison to automated picking solutions. For these reasons, tradi-tional picking is widespread in distribution and production logistics. Due to its typically large proportion of manual activities, picking causes the highest operative personnel costs of all intralogistics process. The required personnel capacity in picking varies short- and mid-term due to capacity requirement fluctuations. These dynamics are often balanced by employing minimal permanent staff and using seasonal help when needed. The resulting high personnel fluctuation necessitates the frequent training of new pickers, which, in combination with in-creasingly complex work contents, highlights the im-portance of learning processes in picking. In industrial settings, learning is often quantified based on diminishing processing time and cost requirements with increasing experience. The best-known industrial learning curve models include those from Wright, de Jong, Baloff and Crossman, which are typically applied to the learning effects of an entire work crew rather than of individuals. These models have been validated in largely static work environments with homogeneous work contents. Little is known of learning effects in picking systems. Here, work contents are heterogeneous and individual work strategies vary among employees. A mix of temporary and steady employees with varying degrees of experience necessitates the observation of individual learning curves. In this paper, the individual picking performance development of temporary employees is analyzed and compared to that of steady employees in the same working environment.

An evaluation of cotton dust control systems in the picking and garnetting areas of the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary /

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